First Notice Day

Mon, Nov 30, 2015 - 10:50am

Today is First Notice Day for the Dec15 gold and silver contracts. For trading, this means that the new front month for gold is the Feb16 and for silver it's the Mar16 while the December contracts begin their sham "delivery" phase.

Speaking of deliveries...The Dec15 silver got started with a bang back on Friday with 2,746 "deliveries" made versus a total of 4,078 open contracts at expiration. You might recall that we followed silver deliveries quite closely back in July and September as the patterns were quite unusual:

Will Dec15 silver see another 100%+ delivery month? Will buyers show up again to "jump the queue"? This is important if you recall how silver refused to go down and break below $14 back in July. Well, here we are again...

And in gold, just the opposite occurred as only two "deliveries" were made versus an open interest allegedly standing for delivery of 7,849. Recall that the most recent delivery month for gold was October and that the entire month was very odd with just 950 total deliveries being made (most of them right at the end of the month) versus 3,092 standing at expiration on September 29. We followed this all through October and note that this occurred during a period of extreme bullion bank short issuance and price capping:

So, we'll see what happens this month. As you know, I expect a price rally into year end that extends into January, at a minimum. How will this impact Dec15 "deliveries"? Who cares? Does it really matter? Though the delivery sheet for silver (as you can see below) at least has the appearance of actual silver being issued and delivered, gold...where the real action is...will continue to be a shell game.

Speaking of that year end rally...As you know, I've been patiently waiting for the opportunity to buy/trade the next dip and the plan has worked almost entirely as forecast. The only error, if you can call it that, is that prices have fallen a bit farther than anticipated. As a reminder see this post which contains the paragraph below:

"Again, NONE OF THIS should come as any surprise to anyone here as we've discussed this at length recently. I expect price to remain pressured all month. HOWEVER, my plan is to look for some opportunity AFTER Dec15 contract expiration on the 27th of this month. That's three weeks from now! So, be patient. Understand why and how this is happening and then take advantage of this knowledge."

The final piece of the puzzle will be the CoT that is due to be released at 3:30 pm EST today. It will undoubtedly show another significant improvement as there was significant Spec long liquidation in gold and considerable long liquidation/fresh shorting in silver. This CoT should show NET positions that are close to the record lows we saw late last summer...right before the September-October rally. So, it should come as no surprise that the next rally will span December-January. Again, let's wait to see the CoT before taking any action. We will, of course, fully discuss the report in today's podcast.

In other news...There's some buzz this morning about the "meeting under expedited rules" that the Fed held last week. It turns out that they want to rescind some of the stuff put in place back in 2008. To me, it's really no big deal but you may think otherwise. Check these two links below:

And we're gaining on the final decision regarding the yuan and the SDR as, apparently, we'll know something later today:

Prices have bounced a little today...which is nice...but it's nothing to write home about just yet. Again, gold needs to first crawl back above $1080 and then $1105. Only then can we safely claim that the current Spec rinse cycle is finally over. In the meantime, there's still a possibility...maybe even a likelihood...of a drop to that $1035-1045 level that we've been discussing. In silver, we need to continue to hold $14 and then see a close back above $14.40 before we can move with confidence.

So put a smile on your face and be happy. It's the holiday season...peace on earth, goodwill toward men and all that jazz! Plus, it's going to be a very interesting week around Turdville, culminating with the latest "most important BLSBS of all time" on Friday. We'll be back later today with a full podcast summary and review so please be sure to check back later. Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 30, 2015 - 10:51am
Nov 30, 2015 - 10:59am

Sleepy folks

I'll take 2nd

Nov 30, 2015 - 11:04am


for now, still diggin those miners ... pun intended

Nov 30, 2015 - 11:10am

Turd, will the Cartel be

Turd, will the Cartel be painting a Horrible Tuesday, instead, as they've been doing so much buying or short covering?

Nov 30, 2015 - 11:20am

Well I Missed 4th

O! Well!!

Silver Recliner Report 64
Nov 30, 2015 - 11:22am
4 oz
Nov 30, 2015 - 11:25am
Nov 30, 2015 - 11:25am
indiana rod
Nov 30, 2015 - 11:34am

Paris Meeting

Black Friday was down 10%, further proof the middle class is hurting.

Obamacare premium increases in 2016 will hurt them more, but the meeting in Paris should finish them off.

"Climate Change, the number one threat to the world, has to be controlled. So we, your noble leaders, are going to double your energy costs. That will show you who is in control."

Nov 30, 2015 - 11:39am

Just let my hedges go...

Stay close.....I'm going to need you soon. 

Safety Dan
Nov 30, 2015 - 11:39am
Nov 30, 2015 - 11:43am

China included in SDR basket today???

I think NOT but hoping

Angry Chef
Nov 30, 2015 - 11:59am

Climate Change

My two cents. The climate changes. Creating a system of carbon taxes where Goldman Sachs holds the patent on the carbon trading desk and stands to make trillions. Is just a stealth way to try to keep the Global Ponzi going. All to the detriment of the 99%. And all for the benefit of the .01%. Taxing the people some more is NOT going to save the planet. Capturing, hanging, and burning the .01% will.

It will also help to keep Russia, Iran, China, and African countries from utilizing there resources to allow them to develop further.

lund175 Fatso
Nov 30, 2015 - 12:09pm


It might be better if the Yuan is shot down and not approved for the SDR.

That would really piss China off then the real fireworks would happen.

Joseph Warren
Nov 30, 2015 - 12:15pm

Whatever . . .

more blah, blah, blah

Like thinking there are any real 'markets' or that 'elections' matter

Nov 30, 2015 - 12:31pm

China added to IMF

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The International Monetary Fund voted Monday to include China's currency in the basket of currencies that make up the international agency's Special Drawing Rights (SDR). The decision is a victory for the Chinese government, which has pushed for the inclusion of the yuan in the basket, as it would confer de facto reserve status on the currency. Since the 1990s, the SDR has consisted of four currencies: the dollar, the euro, the British pound and the yen. In a press conference, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said including the yuan in the basket was an important milestone for China's integration into the global economy.

Nov 30, 2015 - 12:46pm

Yuan and SDR

The yen carry trade is dead. Long live the Yuan carry trade.

Nov 30, 2015 - 12:49pm

China / IMF

IMF agrees to include China's RMB in benchmark SDR currency basket

The addition of the yuan, or renminbi, will take effect next October.

Lagarde had supported its inclusion in the fund, known as Special Drawing Rights (SDR). It will join the euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling and dollar in the reserves basket.

Nov 30, 2015 - 12:57pm
Nov 30, 2015 - 1:32pm

Just to lather up the crowd

I know, I know, this is just hyperbole: gosh, what would you call a group of people observing another group of people, coordinating a spraying of some substance in the stratosphere? I'd call those people crazy conspiracy theorists!! Or just honest observers of fact. Come on people. This is like denying copernicus, or the pedophile whistleblowers, or, or, or....wake up. Like I have written multiple times, this is well documented. The idea is that we are experiencing man made global warming and the only solution is to block the sun. Never mind that the sun has had these massive 10k year solar cycles multiples of times and that it appears that we have been in one and that it is peaking or has peaked and we are on the downside, now.....back to your regular programming of conspiracy theory regarding precious metal pricing manipulation (sarcasm, this, too, is fact to anyone with a brain and eyes)

Nov 30, 2015 - 1:50pm

Nonfarm Payroll

Prior 271,000

Consensus 190,000

Looks to me like they're setting the bar quite low for an easy beat....I could be wrong.

Joseph Warren
Nov 30, 2015 - 1:54pm

Carbon Credits to be followed . . .

someday with the world wide 'Icicle' - a new currency to 'fight global cooling & man's causing the next Ice Age'. (Planet has actually been cooling for the last 18 years.)

But WTF, it really doesn't matter what they base a Ponzi scam on, does it ? They just need a gullible public to go along with it. In the Middle Ages they sold 'indulgences' - a Get Outta Jail Free card so you could do bad stuff but still go to Heaven. Now that took some real gall to sell. 

Nov 30, 2015 - 2:02pm

Double post....Nothing new for me lately.

Edited...I decided Not to waste my crisis....and used it for a little fun, instead.

Nov 30, 2015 - 2:13pm

Nobel Laureate Smashes the Global Warming Hoax

Nobel Laureate Smashes the Global Warming Hoax
Nov 30, 2015 - 2:18pm




Nov 30, 2015 - 2:24pm

NOAA’s climate change science fiction

"This administration is pursuing an extreme political climate change agenda and has made NOAA its accomplice. These are not the actions of an objective agency. NOAA needs to come clean about why it cherry-picked and changed certain data, while ignoring satellite data, to get the results it wanted."

Nov 30, 2015 - 2:31pm

Good Interview

Money Talks #1

from Sprott Money

Good Interview with Eric Sprott And Gerald Celente 30 minutes

Video Description…

Nov 30, 2015 - 2:31pm

Yuan in SDR

Note that allocation to yuan within SDR made possible by "taking" allocation from EUR, JPY and GBP. USD allocation virtually untouched.

Nov 30, 2015 - 2:31pm

The U.S. Would Be Wise To Do

The U.S. Would Be Wise To Do The Same: RUSSIA BANS SOROS FOUNDATION As A “Threat To National Security And Constitutional Order”

Are the “globalization gloves” finally coming off?

from Zero Hedge:

 Following Russia’s official retaliation to the Turkish downing of its jet a week ago, in which Putin issued an executive order limiting employment for Turkish workers, restricting Turkish organizations, and reducing the amount of bilateral trade with Ankara, perhaps a far more notable development took place earlier today when the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office issued a statement in which it recognized George Soros’s Open Society Institute and another affiliated organization as “undesirable groups”, banning Russian citizens and organizations from participation in any of their projects.

In a statement released on Monday, prosecutors said the activities of the Open Society Institute and the Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation were a threat to the foundations of Russia’s Constitutional order and national security. They added that the Justice Ministry would be duly informed about these conclusions and would add the two groups to Russia’s list of undesirable foreign organizations.

Read More

Nov 30, 2015 - 2:32pm

@CPE Re: Blasphemer

Ha! You want blasphemer, I'll give you blasphemer... h/t

"The planet isn't going anywhere... We are!"

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/21

1/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
1/24 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMI
1/24 10:00 ET Leading Econ Indicators
1/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI