It's Getting Ugly Out There

78
Tue, Nov 17, 2015 - 11:11am

Not much good news to report today but, of course, this is no surprise as we remain on the sidelines, waiting for the CoT to completely rinse out and the disinflation bias to abate.

It got pretty ugly in copper overnight as price fell all the way to 2.066. As we've been stating, once copper broke the August 24 intraday lows of 2.20, it was just a matter of time until it threatened 2.00 and now, here we are. Though copper has since rebounded to last of 2.11, this does little to change the overall picture. And, so long as paper copper threatens a complete washout, paper silver (and gold) will remain under pressure.

"Under pressure" would be a good way to describe our precious metals this morning as both are finally threatening to run the sell stops below the lows of last summer. I've got lasts of 75 and .17 so it won't take much of a shove for The Forces of Darkness to make this happen. Frankly, whether or not this happens today is irrelevant...this is going to happen. It's only a matter of time. As we finally found out yesterday, yes the CoT structure is dramatically improving. However, it still has a ways to go, particularly in silver. How will The Banks engender enough new selling to completely rinse The Specs back out? By maneuvering price to new lows and running the stops. Again, this is seemingly just a matter of time now.

And I thought this was cute...Bloomberg chimes in on how silver had declined for a "record losing streak", the worst since 1950. Of course, no mention is made that as of late October, when the "losing streak" began, the Silver Commercial NET SHORT position had soared to nearly 70,000 contracts, the highest since early 2008. No way that the esteemed reporters at Bloomberg were going to be astute enough to decipher this clear CAUSE AND EFFECT. What a scam this all is. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-17/gold-holds-drop-as-in...

So, here we are. Madness is full view all around the globe. The French seem ready to get full involved in Syria while Russia has announced that it was definitely a bomb that brought down that jet two weeks ago. The global economy is in shambles and the US barely sputters, with "growth" only possible due to double seasonal adjustments and other statistical gamesmanship. By the way, have you seen the Baltic Dry Index lately? It's nearly back to multi-year lows. Nothing says a booming global economy like collapsing shipping demand!

And don't forget about your friends at Glencore. Back to unchanged on the day but still in serious trouble below 90.

DoucheBank still looks terrible, too:

So don't let today's follow-on, nonsense rally in the S&P deceive you. The index is pressing right up against its 200-day MA at 2064 and I suspect that's about the limit of the central bank pumping. I could be wrong, of course, so watch the close to see where it ends up.

OK, that's it for now. Let's see what the rest of the day brings and then sum it all up with a podcast later.

TF

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braincramps
Nov 17, 2015 - 4:38pm

Hussman calls for a 40-55% fall in the equity markets

Cutting immediately to the chase, we continue to believe that the U.S. equity market is in a late-stage top formation of the third speculative bubble in 15 years. On the basis of measures best correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns across history, equity valuations remain obscene. We fully expect a loss in the S&P 500 in the range of 40-55% over the completion of this cycle; an outcome that would be wholly run-of-the-mill given present market conditions, and would not even bring reliable measures of valuation materially below their longer-term historical norms.John P. Hussman: The Bubble Right in Front of Our Eyes — 16 November 2015

Nov 17, 2015 - 4:13pm
Nov 17, 2015 - 4:04pm

For anyone looking to SELL

Looks like The Doc is anticipating another retail shortage...

SD Bullion
Ottawa Lake, Michigan 49267
(800) 294-8732
sales[at]sdbullion[dot]com
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realitybiter
Nov 17, 2015 - 4:01pm

200 police uniforms

I wonder if they found the return address on the box which they were shipped:

Love, Langley John go to minute 7:45 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S73fkmE0Is

​He either is an idiot or he thinks you are an idiot. Bali is 93.18% Hindu, not muslim. Propaganda and only propaganda. Now HE is in charge of the CIA, the gatekeeper to intel, and HE said yesterday the 4th amendment caused the Paris attacks...this is the guy that would not be sworn in on a bible. Rather, the 1787 version of the constitution. "But there was little notice of the fact that the First Amendment provides for No Establishment of Religion. This was conspicuously not a part of the Constitution that Brennan chose to swear to uphold.

Read more: https://www.americanthinker.com/2013/03/john_brennans_spooky_swearing-in.html#ixzz3rmib823g
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook

Put a fork in it, or wtfu!!

Nov 17, 2015 - 3:52pm

Fog of "war"

Now there are reports that the German police "found no explosives"

braincramps
Nov 17, 2015 - 3:42pm

Is it me

Or has the blogesphere started to make a higher pitched noise? The number of tweets and news articles seem to be reaching a crescendo. I'm probably wrong, but it feels like things are starting to break down more quickly and the chatter is becoming climatic; in my humble opinion... Then again, it might just be the other voice in my head that tells me to drink more beer and buy silver.

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Nov 17, 2015 - 3:38pm

Shit gettin real...

Nov 17, 2015 - 3:16pm

24% of JPM's gold vault

GONE. To who knows where. For those keeping score at home...that's about 5 mts and MORE than the TOTAL combined registered gold on hand.

Nov 17, 2015 - 3:06pm

A very fluid situation

Hannover police: "Find safety. Do not stay in groups."

Dyna mo hum
Nov 17, 2015 - 3:03pm

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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