It's Getting Ugly Out There

78
Tue, Nov 17, 2015 - 11:11am

Not much good news to report today but, of course, this is no surprise as we remain on the sidelines, waiting for the CoT to completely rinse out and the disinflation bias to abate.

It got pretty ugly in copper overnight as price fell all the way to 2.066. As we've been stating, once copper broke the August 24 intraday lows of 2.20, it was just a matter of time until it threatened 2.00 and now, here we are. Though copper has since rebounded to last of 2.11, this does little to change the overall picture. And, so long as paper copper threatens a complete washout, paper silver (and gold) will remain under pressure.

"Under pressure" would be a good way to describe our precious metals this morning as both are finally threatening to run the sell stops below the lows of last summer. I've got lasts of 75 and .17 so it won't take much of a shove for The Forces of Darkness to make this happen. Frankly, whether or not this happens today is irrelevant...this is going to happen. It's only a matter of time. As we finally found out yesterday, yes the CoT structure is dramatically improving. However, it still has a ways to go, particularly in silver. How will The Banks engender enough new selling to completely rinse The Specs back out? By maneuvering price to new lows and running the stops. Again, this is seemingly just a matter of time now.

And I thought this was cute...Bloomberg chimes in on how silver had declined for a "record losing streak", the worst since 1950. Of course, no mention is made that as of late October, when the "losing streak" began, the Silver Commercial NET SHORT position had soared to nearly 70,000 contracts, the highest since early 2008. No way that the esteemed reporters at Bloomberg were going to be astute enough to decipher this clear CAUSE AND EFFECT. What a scam this all is. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-17/gold-holds-drop-as-in...

So, here we are. Madness is full view all around the globe. The French seem ready to get full involved in Syria while Russia has announced that it was definitely a bomb that brought down that jet two weeks ago. The global economy is in shambles and the US barely sputters, with "growth" only possible due to double seasonal adjustments and other statistical gamesmanship. By the way, have you seen the Baltic Dry Index lately? It's nearly back to multi-year lows. Nothing says a booming global economy like collapsing shipping demand!

And don't forget about your friends at Glencore. Back to unchanged on the day but still in serious trouble below 90.

DoucheBank still looks terrible, too:

So don't let today's follow-on, nonsense rally in the S&P deceive you. The index is pressing right up against its 200-day MA at 2064 and I suspect that's about the limit of the central bank pumping. I could be wrong, of course, so watch the close to see where it ends up.

OK, that's it for now. Let's see what the rest of the day brings and then sum it all up with a podcast later.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  78 Comments

Nov 17, 2015 - 11:40am

As gold breaks to new lows below $1073

Keep in mind that the soaring Pig is crushing everything in sight and the likely dip to $1045 will be a great opportunity to trade long again in about two weeks time, after the Dec15 expirations.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-17/worst-economic-impact-still-co...

Nov 17, 2015 - 11:47am

And there you go...

Stops getting run. Now $1066. Target is still $1045ish.

USAFirearms.comTF
Nov 17, 2015 - 11:57am

Silver Target?

Turd I see you are targeting $1045 in Gold. What do you see for a target in Silver?

s1lverbullet
Nov 17, 2015 - 11:57am

Glad we are finally going to get this over with

I think this is the start of the last leg down in the bear. A great buying opportunity awaits.

Stay hedged my friends.

Nov 17, 2015 - 11:57am

Why are premiums not rising?

Anybody have insight? Near record low pricing, but still low premiums and plenty of stock. anybody able to nab some silver last aug 26th, when price hit 13.91, silver was only below 14.40 for 24 hours. This past week it has been hovering below the $14.40 level, teasing us for the past 5 days. Where are the buyers?

Not that this is a bad thing... keep stacking.

But something is amiss.

Edit... look what happens when my back is turned writing a post and looking at the silver chart. AG is falling too.

realitybiter
Nov 17, 2015 - 11:58am

While bit coin

creeps higher. Right. If only they traded on the cme. How can the dollar go higher with bitcoin? dollar up 0.23%, gold down 1.55%, bitcoin up 1.11%. It all makes sense. war is peace. It all makes sense. slingshot engaged? or we just taking all metals to zero? free money for everyone!

Nov 17, 2015 - 12:00pm

$1045 gold

Again, we are headed here for a new base/bottom before CoT washed and focus shifts back to FOMC doing nothing in December:

ReachWest
Nov 17, 2015 - 12:06pm

The Last Ounce.

I do hope that LAST available ounce is being boxed up for Shanghai soon. I'm growing tired of this nonsense.

USAFirearms.com
Nov 17, 2015 - 12:08pm

$14 silver still remains a

$14 silver still remains a viable floor for silver...BUT...as we've been warning repeatedly for weeks...

If copper is going to plunge to, and maybe even through, $2. And if crude is going to fall through $40. And if the CoT remains "unwashed" and above the levels of last summer...

Paper silver could see $12 (blue line). Hell, it could see $10 (purple line)!

Please be careful. Recall how many time we've suggested puts as a hedge for those who get nauseous from all this downside volatility.

DAGEORGE42s1lverbullet
Nov 17, 2015 - 12:10pm

re hedged

the opportunity is now, would be a shame if we never hit 1045 and everyone waiting for the turn panic buys at 1125 when they can buy here...

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Recent Comments

by Marcus, 23 min 47 sec ago
by Marcus, 48 min 47 sec ago
by SquibLoad, 50 min 34 sec ago
by IndoEagle, 1 hour 12 min ago
by AGAU, 2 hours 21 min ago

Forum Discussion

by Pete, 29 min 6 sec ago
by Green Lantern, 3 hours 7 min ago
by Green Lantern, 4 hours 54 min ago
by CongAu, 5 hours 29 min ago
by CongAu, 5 hours 47 min ago