It's Getting Ugly Out There

Tue, Nov 17, 2015 - 11:11am

Not much good news to report today but, of course, this is no surprise as we remain on the sidelines, waiting for the CoT to completely rinse out and the disinflation bias to abate.

It got pretty ugly in copper overnight as price fell all the way to 2.066. As we've been stating, once copper broke the August 24 intraday lows of 2.20, it was just a matter of time until it threatened 2.00 and now, here we are. Though copper has since rebounded to last of 2.11, this does little to change the overall picture. And, so long as paper copper threatens a complete washout, paper silver (and gold) will remain under pressure.

"Under pressure" would be a good way to describe our precious metals this morning as both are finally threatening to run the sell stops below the lows of last summer. I've got lasts of $1075 and $14.17 so it won't take much of a shove for The Forces of Darkness to make this happen. Frankly, whether or not this happens today is irrelevant...this is going to happen. It's only a matter of time. As we finally found out yesterday, yes the CoT structure is dramatically improving. However, it still has a ways to go, particularly in silver. How will The Banks engender enough new selling to completely rinse The Specs back out? By maneuvering price to new lows and running the stops. Again, this is seemingly just a matter of time now.

And I thought this was cute...Bloomberg chimes in on how silver had declined for a "record losing streak", the worst since 1950. Of course, no mention is made that as of late October, when the "losing streak" began, the Silver Commercial NET SHORT position had soared to nearly 70,000 contracts, the highest since early 2008. No way that the esteemed reporters at Bloomberg were going to be astute enough to decipher this clear CAUSE AND EFFECT. What a scam this all is.

So, here we are. Madness is full view all around the globe. The French seem ready to get full involved in Syria while Russia has announced that it was definitely a bomb that brought down that jet two weeks ago. The global economy is in shambles and the US barely sputters, with "growth" only possible due to double seasonal adjustments and other statistical gamesmanship. By the way, have you seen the Baltic Dry Index lately? It's nearly back to multi-year lows. Nothing says a booming global economy like collapsing shipping demand!

And don't forget about your friends at Glencore. Back to unchanged on the day but still in serious trouble below 90.

DoucheBank still looks terrible, too:

So don't let today's follow-on, nonsense rally in the S&P deceive you. The index is pressing right up against its 200-day MA at 2064 and I suspect that's about the limit of the central bank pumping. I could be wrong, of course, so watch the close to see where it ends up.

OK, that's it for now. Let's see what the rest of the day brings and then sum it all up with a podcast later.


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CPE · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:11am



canary · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:14am

Next Happy Tuesday....

.....December 22......After the FOMC.

s1lverbullet · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:14am



@ Silverx3 from last thread

I like that sign off. I think that will be my sig from now on :)

Stay hedged my friends.

canary · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:19am

My personal antidepressants

....By the way...that's John Kerry.

AlienEyes · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:21am


number five

lund175 · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:23am

6 and the Fed has a way out

Just blame it on this proposed law.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she strongly opposes a legislative Fed reform act in a letter addressed to House Speaker Paul Ryan and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi .

In the letter sent on Monday, Yellen called the proposed law a "grave mistake," that would undermine Fed policy and the greater U.S. economy.

"Unfortunately, the FORM Act attempts to increase transparency and accountability through misguided provisions that would expose the Federal Reserve to short-term political pressures," she sa

DAGEORGE42 · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:23am

Friday COT should look good

commercials likely covered another 30k since last report - taking hedges off here, today obviously is cut off for friday COT, when no one on this site wants to buy, time to buy more.

4 oz · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:25am


I'm sure it's purely coincidental, the timing of foreign grants and all... "Hillary Rodham Clinton served as the 67th Secretary of State of the United States from January 21, 2009 to February 1, 2013."

Clinton Foundation amends four years of tax returns

The Clinton Foundation announced late Monday that it had amended its tax return forms from four separate years due to errors in the reporting of donations from ---foreign governments---

Put her ass in Jail!

Time to re-open the "Chinagate" investigation as well!!

silver66 · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:32am

Yellen and audit the fed

Not only is she corrupt and but she fell out of a ugly tree and hit every branch on the way down!!!


silver66 · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:35am

Thank you and lund above

Was just going to link that, too.

Screw. That. Old. Bag.


· Nov 17, 2015 - 11:40am

As gold breaks to new lows below $1073

Keep in mind that the soaring Pig is crushing everything in sight and the likely dip to $1045 will be a great opportunity to trade long again in about two weeks time, after the Dec15 expirations. 

· Nov 17, 2015 - 11:47am

And there you go...

Stops getting run. Now $1066. Target is still $1045ish. TF · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:57am

Silver Target?

Turd I see you are targeting $1045 in Gold. What do you see for a target in Silver?

s1lverbullet · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:57am

Glad we are finally going to get this over with

I think this is the start of the last leg down in the bear. A great buying opportunity awaits.

Stay hedged my friends.

· Nov 17, 2015 - 11:57am

Why are premiums not rising?

Anybody have insight? Near record low pricing, but still low premiums and plenty of stock. anybody able to nab some silver last aug 26th, when price hit 13.91, silver was only below 14.40 for 24 hours. This past week it has been hovering below the $14.40 level, teasing us for the past 5 days. Where are the buyers?

Not that this is a bad thing... keep stacking.

But something is amiss.

Edit... look what happens when my back is turned writing a post and looking at the silver chart. AG is falling too.

realitybiter · Nov 17, 2015 - 11:58am

While bit coin

creeps higher. Right. If only they traded on the cme. How can the dollar go higher with bitcoin? dollar up 0.23%, gold down 1.55%, bitcoin up 1.11%. It all makes sense. war is peace. It all makes sense. slingshot engaged? or we just taking all metals to zero? free money for everyone!

· Nov 17, 2015 - 12:00pm

$1045 gold

Again, we are headed here for a new base/bottom before CoT washed and focus shifts back to FOMC doing nothing in December:

ReachWest · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:06pm

The Last Ounce.

I do hope that LAST available ounce is being boxed up for Shanghai soon. I'm growing tired of this nonsense. · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:08pm

$14 silver still remains a

$14 silver still remains a viable floor for we've been warning repeatedly for weeks...

If copper is going to plunge to, and maybe even through, $2. And if crude is going to fall through $40. And if the CoT remains "unwashed" and above the levels of last summer...

Paper silver could see $12 (blue line). Hell, it could see $10 (purple line)!

Please be careful. Recall how many time we've suggested puts as a hedge for those who get nauseous from all this downside volatility.

DAGEORGE42 s1lverbullet · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:10pm

re hedged

the opportunity is now, would be a shame if we never hit 1045 and everyone waiting for the turn panic buys at 1125 when they can buy here...

· Nov 17, 2015 - 12:12pm

And the HUI is back to 105

Remember, any close below 105...maybe 103 or 104...and we're going to be looking at double digits.

realitybiter · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:13pm


What is the story on this?

Sure are some interesting coincidences don't you think? Top aide GENERAL gets canned, then French head of IMF announces Yuan inclusion into IMF SDR and then all hell breaks loose in Paris on the same day.....not suggesting foul play, just saying it is amazing coincidence, no?

It is my observation/ understanding that most military has some personal compromising history and it is only a matter of "when you step out of line" that the history is suddenly revealed.....

SilverX3 s1lverbullet · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:21pm

I find myself both thirsty &

I find myself both thirsty & hedged at the present moment ;)

canary · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:27pm

I survived four years of this horror...

.....and I'm going to survive four more weeks of that.....or longer.

s1lverbullet · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:28pm

@ SilverX3

My DUST is going ape shit today. Yawn, if your hedged none of this matters.

It will be a great buying opportunitiy though for some phyz.

silverflower · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:30pm

Stock markets are moving up up up

every day, no matter what the news are. Incredible. Bad economic news, up they go, good economic news, up they go. War in Syria, Ukraine, Yemen.....doesn't matter. Dutch plane downed over Ukraine, doesn't matter. Russian plane downed over Agypt, forget it doesn't matter. Possible interest rate hike by the FED, doesn`t matter. Disinflationary downward pressure in commodities, doesn't natter. Japan in recession again, no issue........and so on. It's completely BS, total idiocy.

LostMind · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:32pm

Fundamentals? What f'ing fundamentals!

This is friggin nuts. Guess we will get acquainted with a really good metals/miners low now...

KeynesianKryptonite realitybiter · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:33pm

@What is is the Story on this?

Almost every GO that I've seen make the fall from grace, they have tumbled because of infidelity or an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate; and this one is no different.

Stay faithful my friends . . .

SteveW · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:44pm


looks like its put in a low and bounced off $1064.50, at least for today. That could be the low for this wash or they could go for a chart replay tomorrow and try to get more bang for their buck.

s1lverbullet · Nov 17, 2015 - 12:45pm

@ Dr Jerome

If you want a long term hedge I would do as Turd recommends and buy long term puts. DUST is lousy over a long period, no doubt about it. I think we will get to 25-30 this time and then drop back down again. I'll be a seller in that range.

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