A Long, Slow Disinflationary Week

Fri, Nov 13, 2015 - 10:23am

Jeez, you can only imagine what next week will bring. For now, let's take a look at the damage and watch to see what the rest of today brings.

Here are four headlines from ZH from just this morning:

Yep, sure looks like the booming "Green Shoots" recovery of 2010 continues, doesn't it? High GDP growth. Jobs everywhere. Wages rising. Bliss, sunshine and lollipops.

And into this economic nirvana, The Fed is poised to raise the Fed Funds rate by a few basis points next month. Uh-huh...

But the "market" sure believes this nonsense and, as such, is bidding up the U.S. Pig against all other fiat junk. This spike in the POSX is leading to massive disinflationary pressures again, not just in the US but in the emerging markets and around the globe.

It feels like a bit of a breather so far today but it's not. Things just aren't down as much as they were yesterday...yet. Take a look at the commodity sector and be sure to notice the predominant color:

And, as we've been anticipating, stocks and bonds are following along, too. The nascent rally in bonds will really get going as we move deeper in November but rates are still down 2-3 bps as I type. And the stock market...whoa, nellie. This is getting really interesting and, again, just as we expected earlier this week.

The S&P fell through and closed below its 200-day MA yesterday and the fact that it has NOT recovered today...so far...it NOT a good sign for all the stockroaches. As I type, it's closing in on its 100-day and, if this continues, it will soon make a run at the 50-day, too. Uh-oh.

From a "traditional" TA standpoint, the key levels appears to be 2020 and 1995 (last 2037). A break down and close back below those levels would invalidate this latest breakout and you could then file it away as perhaps one last failed attempt at getting through stout resistance at 2120. Personally, I'm very much looking forward to seeing what next week brings...

And I'm also very interested to see what the next week brings for Glencore and DoucheBank. GLEN has managed a small bounce today while DB is down again and at new multi-year lows. I'm reading more and more about how the fortunes of these two seem to be tied at the hip. IF THAT'S THE CASE, then all of this commodity deflation stuff is NOT just some isolated, non-event. Instead, this will have SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS for the entire financial system. So, again, recognizing this...How can Mother Fellen even dream of raising rates, sending the POSX through 100 and crashing copper toward and lower?

Oh, and in case you're wondering, here are those two pieces of crap plotted together with GLEN in candles and DB in bars:

Again, the best commodity examples I can give you of this are copper and crude...and they're UGLY:

Alright, then. I see that, as opposed to the conditions when I started typing, I see that things are starting to move pretty fast. The Dow is now down 150 and the S&P is below the 100-day and now at 2029. Crude is now under $41 and falling fast. I think I'd better get this posted and, since as you know I'm currently not coming anywhere near the paper PMs, we'll just save the analysis of them for the podcast later today.

Have a great day but don't stray too far from your computer. There might be some trades to consider before the end of the day.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 13, 2015 - 10:25am



4 oz
Nov 13, 2015 - 10:28am
Nov 13, 2015 - 10:36am


Ya baby!

Nov 13, 2015 - 10:42am


Got home last night from working out of town, and stayed in a hotel M, T, W nights and it turns out that there was a sushi bar less than 100 feet away from the hotel. I’m hoping that next week the price of silver will follow the exponential rise in my consumption of 22 oz Sapporo beers, as I had 1 on Monday, 2 on Tuesday, and 4 on Wednesday...

Thankfully the exponential rise did not continue for a fourth day as that would have entailed 16 beers, but I wouldn't mind if the silver price continued on in such a fashion.

Nov 13, 2015 - 10:47am

Pleading the Fufth!

Its a stinky week

Miners are picking up; all mine are flashing green. Just so under water though from last week....

Nov 13, 2015 - 10:52am


Looking for safty from the rate hike.

Nov 13, 2015 - 10:54am

CAF Interview, the QQQ's, and Great Job!

Great Analysis, as usual Craig. It feels as though we are getting close a real inflection point--one way or the other and it feels as though all cards are going to be put on the table.

Can you imagine how emerging markets, and countries reliant on commodity commerce feel when they see there primary source of incomes falter due to the malfeasance emanating from these currency wars? The US and Central Banks are not making global friends.

CAF and www.Solari.com are an acquired taste, but once you sort through it and learn the "language" there is much from which to benefit. It's a bit like Zero Hedge. Such an incredible volume of information that you need to pick and choose your data points, your focus. She is close friends with Dr. Joseph Farrell of www.gizadeathstar.com and he ain't no dummy. Their dialogs are inspiring and his message is "take back the (western) culture".

He has run the channels and links from WWII and the Nazi's up to the current Secret Space Program. He has written six to eight extremely erudite books on the topic.

Give her a chance--she is both brilliant and perceptive but like I said, she is an acquired taste and it takes time to assimilate the "language". The concept of the breakaway civilization and the trillions inserted into it has merit. This is where the funding for the geo-engineering is tapped. It costs trillions to implement it!

She is also fully aware of said geo-engineering and the reasons behind it.

Keep a close eye on the Q's going forward. There is a gap that may not be filled.

I'm a mazed that silver drops to $14.20 and so little movement in the options. Actually, I'm not--nothing surprises me anymore!

Steady on...

Nov 13, 2015 - 11:03am

Forgot to mention

So, we watch gold leave The Scoshe's vault in drips and drabs. Maybe 3,136.046 oz one day. Then 4,273.946 oz the next. In total, their vault is down 65% in seven months.

And now a replenishment? And one of those perfect and precise, one metric ton jobs?? How can anyone with a straight face really believe/trust this stuff???

Nov 13, 2015 - 11:09am

RBC au comments with news headlines fwiw

Monday 16th November – Empire Manufacturing Index – RBC: -5, cons: -6.10, Prior: -11.36 – 8:30am EST – A stronger than consensus number (as RBC expects) would likely be negative for gold.

· Tuesday 17th November – US October CPI – RBC: 0.2%, cons: 0.2%, Prior: -0.2% – 8:30am EST – RBC is in line with consensus at 0.2%; a stronger than consensus number would probably be incrementally negative for gold.

· Tuesday 17th November – US October IP – RBC: 0.1%, cons: 0.1%, Prior: -0.2% – 9:15am EST – We are in-line with consensus; a weaker number should be positive for gold.

· Tuesday 17th November – NAHB Housing Market Index – RBC: 62, cons: 64, Prior: 64 – 9:30am EST – RBC expects a below consensus number, which should be positive for gold.

· Wednesday 18th November – FOMC Minutes 2pm EST – The Fed went out of its way to make the October FOMC statement much more hawkish than expected. Beyond this, a handful of committee members (including Yellen and Dudley) have come out since then to echo that sentiment. So it would be a surprise if the Minutes did not reflect a committee that is poised to hike in December barring a negative headline in the next few weeks.

· Thursday 19th November – US Initial Jobless Claims – RBC: 260k, Prior: 270k – 8:30am ET – A lower than before number should be a negative for gold.

· Thursday 19th November – Philly Fed Business Outlook – RBC: 0, Cons: 0, Prior: -4.5 - 8:30am ET – An above consensus number would likely be negative for gold.

· Friday 20th November – Euro Nov flash consumer confidence index–Prior: -7.7 - 10:00am ET – A stronger number than before would likely be Euro positive, US$ negative and therefore incrementally positive for gold.

Nov 13, 2015 - 11:10am

Excellent new presentation

Excellent new presentation from Brent Johnson:

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
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8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

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7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
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7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
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