Disinflation Bias Rumbling Forward

Thu, Nov 5, 2015 - 10:58am

All of the hawkish jawboning of the past week has sent the POSX higher which, in turn, has re-ignited the global disinflation bias trade. You can see it all across the commodity sector and it is adding fuel to the CoT rinse cycle.

In some regards, we're right back where we've been several times these past twelve months or so. Mother Fellen and her Goons jawbone The Pig higher with all of their rate hike nonsense and the "markets" react by anticipating disinflation/deflation. So far, we're only seeing this in commodities but, soon enough, it will become apparent in bonds and stocks, too.

For now, check the damage in copper. It's down nearly 2% today and back below 2.30.

As we've discussed forever, copper and silver are often paired together by commodity-trading HFT algos so when you see copper going down, you can almost always expect pressure on silver, too. I was wrong to sell my puts when I did as silver obviously did not stabilize near the 50-day as I had anticipated. Oh well, "you never go broke taking a profit", as they say but it was somewhat foolish to think that The Evil Ones would delay until Friday the continuation of their CoT wash. I mean, why delay when you've already got momentum on your side?

Friday will still, obviously, be critical. A BLSBS that "exceeds expectations" is going to spike The Pig and smash commodities, including gold. However, with so much damage having already been done over the past week (Silver is down nearly 9% for pete's sake!), maybe the BLSBS will be benign and then we'll just have to deal with additional jawboning in the weeks ahead.

As we watch price, keep an eye on copper. IF it breaks down and out of the pennant that I've drawn, it will almost certainly test the late summer lows between 2.20 and 2.25. And, IF that happens, you can bet that silver will break down and out of its pennant, too, and begin to test $14.00-14.25. Ugh.

And what if all this disinflation and commodity collapse ramps up the heat on companies like Glencore again? What if it leads us right back to where we were with the emerging market currencies? Can you see where, once again, Mother Fellen is playing a very dangerous game and balancing act? And for all of the "damaged Fed credibility" of the September FOMC, what credibility will remain after Fellen does nothing in December, too?

On the bright side, however, silver will soon be right back to where it was in September. Retail shortages and a cleaned-out CoT. So we've got that going for us...

And check platinum, too. It really needs to hold this area around $950. Below there, it risks a test of the $900 lows and this would not bode well for gold.

Ahhh, gold. The bane of The Bullion Bank Cartel. Do you remember this chart from just last Wednesday? At the time, even I thought that a goal of beating gold back to the Oct 2 levels was overly aggressive...

And now, here we are. It's as if October never happened...

Of course, this is all normal and fine according to jagoffs like the Jailbird or Trader Dick. Just a free and fair market at work. Whatever. Why anyone pays the least bit of attention to either of these losers or anyone else who denies the clear and present historical fact of precious metal price suppression and manipulation is beyond me. I mean, I'm all for discussion and self-examination but I'm not taking any world tours with someone who believes the earth is flat. I've got to draw the line somewhere as there really are at least a few absolutes out there. One of them is that the precious metals "markets"...and now ALL markets...are manipulated and attempted-to-be-controlled by the central planning central banks. Deny this and you are simply a fool...or a planted agent of disinformation. It's hard to tell one from the other so the best course of action remains "IGNORE".

Moving on, I just saw a tweet from ZH that stated that the FRBNY's own bank, Tungstenman, has just raised their NFP guess for tomorrow from 175M to 190M. If that's not a warning of what to expect at 8:30 am tomorrow, I'm not sure what is. Again, this is the same Tungstenman that has been saying for months that "a December rate was most likely".


Goldman: "we have revised up our forecast for October nonfarm payroll growth to 190k from 175k previously"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 5, 2015

Finally, two links I beg you to read today. You should forward them, too. First, words can't even begin to describe the absolute FUBAR clusterfuck that is "Syria". This situation is beyond control and comprehension and this is extraordinarily dangerous. Oh my goodness...https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-05/cia-saudis-give-select-syrian-...

And I think I'll make this next item a "guest post" on the home page. Simply terrific stuff from our pal, Jim Quinn: https://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/11/04/the-most-devious-liars-in-...

As I close, I see that gold and silver have stabilized a bit but copper is still sinking...now down 2.5% at 2.265. Watch closely and, again, keep an eye out for some renewed headlines regarding Glencore et al in the days ahead.

Podcast later,


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 5, 2015 - 10:59am



Nov 5, 2015 - 11:03am

nicked my hand yesterday...

...trying to catch a falling knife... I went long in miners on tuesday afternoon, and yesterday got nervous and decided to get out with a small loss. Glad I did.

Looks to me like more pain to come.

But premiums are still very reasonable. If I see the premiums on AG fall a bit further, I'll suspect MUCH more pain to come. If I were the CEO of APMEX or Provident, I'd sure try to embed a trader at JPM's commodities group to get some inside info on manipulation plans... just sayin... then you could lower premiums and move some product out the door before these smashes.

I feel like the driver of the red truck this past few years. Such an appropriate photo--a dirty yellow mining truck = price of gold with JMP in the driver's seat. Red truck=the blood of goldbugs trying to zip around in this marketplace (the mine) and get ahead.

Nov 5, 2015 - 11:15am


I'll take it!

Nov 5, 2015 - 11:17am

Looks like I was wrong about the HUI

I thought the HUI would bounce at the 50 day moving average. It is below there now and things don't look good.

I just bought $1200 more of the TGLDX mutual fund in my retirement account. When I retire and I am forced to move into my kid's basement, I have a feeling that I'll still be talking about how the HUI is almost at the bottom.

Nov 5, 2015 - 11:18am

BLS will beat expectaions....my reasoning

* To boost the Fed's talk of rate hike in December, so the customers think that the economy is improving and feel confident to go shopping and spend before Christmas (Chuck Butler from Daily Pfennig),

** The last two BLS reports were ugly.... they dumped everything into the last one.....And they are "clean" to play the game all over again.

4 oz
Nov 5, 2015 - 11:19am

Libertarian Party of Washington State changed their cover

https://www.facebook.com/libertarianpartyofWA/ Libertarian Party of Washington State

to (liked the old better)

n_m=mnhouck[at]aol[dot]com" rel="nofollow">https://www.facebook.com/n/?libertarianpartyofWA/photos/np.1446702674058456.1413951075/944156612318939/&type=3&aref=1446702674058456&medium=email&mid=523c46d659a06G54472e63G523c4b6fb9cd8G378Gc9ab&bcode=1.1446703510.AbkShO4qvlfy4oqC&<span class=n_m=mnhouck[at]aol[dot]com" src="https://fbcdn-photos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-0/s180x540/12208458_944156612318939_4135936165239510589_n.png?oh=905b3bbc94a8e8738184c6b2a13ba639&oe=56C83E70&__gda__=1456023104_14354682bf7e123e18be262ccb75e965" title="https://www.facebook.com/n/?libertarianpartyofWA/photos/np.1446702674058456.1413951075/944156612318939/&type=3&aref=1446702674058456&medium=email&mid=523c46d659a06G54472e63G523c4b6fb9cd8G378Gc9ab&bcode=1.1446703510.AbkShO4qvlfy4oqC&n_m=mnhouck[at]aol[dot]com" />

My suspicion is that the the BLSBS tomorrow is going to be crummy---beyond crummy---and TPTB know it, and know nobody's gonna buy a cook book of the month report right now.....(especially on the street level.)

Gold spot down at 1100 & at present is down 14 of 16 days....

Pig been hangin' up over 98....

Ag smashed back under $15....

The erratic whipsawing in BTC/USD is an attention getter....even though I could care less about BTC.

Hit pieces on PM everywhere ya look again.... Makes me a Phyzz buyer, T O D A Y.

Nov 5, 2015 - 11:21am


Sold off some Wesdome Gold many months ago every time it moved up. Did okay. Bought Wesdome about a month ago again, and even though the HUI is getting hammered, I'm up 10%. Just saying.

Antony von Clearwell
Nov 5, 2015 - 11:39am

Buy some...

.... Mining shares... Go ahead, but not on margin!

I did yday and today and am planning not to look at it for at least 3 months. Period.

If the system collapses we have Au/Ag. If not these stock will hopefully rise. Win/win.

Now back to my weekend :)

Ps: I still think the bottom is not in; aiming at early next year. Bull to resume in march.

Nov 5, 2015 - 11:52am

Rite of Passage

Just got my army men and figured it would be an appropriate "Rite of Passage" to post a picture in Turdville. Now I just need to get a yellow foam hat and take a picture of me wearing it in a prominent place--I'm thinking of going to Wall Street and finding the statue of the big bronze bull on the sidewalk--and and then stick my head in his ass--that would be a good photo! 

That first shot was kind of plain, so I thought to it make a better "action shot" here by assigning these army men the modest task of guarding a tube of AGE "pet rocks".

Nov 5, 2015 - 11:54am

@Dave J

Where did you buy those?! So cool!

Nov 5, 2015 - 11:56am


See if your kid will turn his basement into an open bay barracks. 

Nov 5, 2015 - 12:01pm

The Decline and Fall of the

The Decline and Fall of the Silver Denarius and The Roman Empire.

Silver Content of the Roman Denarius

silver content of the roman denarius from the Roman Republic to the later Empire

As the costs of the Roman Empire grew, the silver content of the denarius declined.


Edit: Coincidence or Repeating History

Nov 5, 2015 - 12:04pm



Nov 5, 2015 - 12:26pm


Hedged some more just now after the HUI lost the 115 level. Tomorrow is looking pretty ugly assuming the Tungstenman is telegraphing the playbook for tomorrow.

Nov 5, 2015 - 12:47pm

Candle of Hope chart

Craig can you please re-post the monthly "Candle of Hope" chart? Tx.

Nov 5, 2015 - 1:22pm

Here you go

I've been trying to find the time all week to write a full post with an update. In the meantime, here's the monthly chart:

Nov 5, 2015 - 1:38pm

Candle of Hope chart


I cannot zoom in on it. Please include it with your next podcast/post and give us your latest take.

Thank you.

Nov 5, 2015 - 1:48pm

Physical Demand

Down, down, down. And if Goldman is actually telegraphing a bullish BLS number for tomorrow along with the associated decline in metals .. then down a bunch more to end the week.

So - my question. When does the actual physical market start to bear on the paper price? Never? Won't this renewed move to the lows touch off more 'real' physical demand? 

Needless to say its all a manipulated charade, but I would expect the demand for physical to once again start to bear on the 'evil' ones ability to move the metals lower. Has that all changed? It's all such nonsense. I wish they would just drive it to ridiculous lows and leverage everything 2000 paper oz to 1 in storage. 

Despite all of this - for some odd reason - I still feel we are in the final inning of this charade and things are about to change.

Nov 5, 2015 - 2:10pm

Bill Holter on The Jailbird

After writing my last piece regarding Martin Armstrong I thought that would be enough, it wasn't. A reader replied and forwarded this recent article by Mr. Armstrong https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37416 "Did Gold Survive the Depression? Please read this short article twice before continuing to my commentary. I had to read this twice myself because the first time through I kept saying "Huh?", the second time through all I could say is "WHAT???"!
OK, let's start with a most ridiculous statement, one patently false and a revision of history ..."You are doomed if you cling to the idea that gold will rise simply because stocks decline. Gold was DEVALUED in 1934 since gold was MONEY. What it could purchase for $20.67 then cost $35. The government confiscated gold and moved to a TWO-TIER monetary system with gold used exclusively for international settlements, not domestic." Gold was NOT "devalued", it was "revalued" higher versus the dollar. Another way to say this is "the dollar was devalued versus gold". This is fact. He then said "what it could purchase for $20.67 then cost $35". Really Martin? Don't you mean the $20.67 that used to be required to purchase one ounce of gold then cost $35 or about 70% MORE DOLLARS!???
The crux of the rest of his article is "gold is not money", he claims dollars are money. He defines money as: "MONEY is solely what another will accept because they know someone else will accept it from them. You cannot dictate to the world what you think should be money". He goes on to say "They refuse to understand that MONEY is just a unit or account and a medium of exchange that everyone must agree on". ...um no Martin, you just described "currency", NOT money! You also forgot another minor point (of many), MONEY MUST BE FIRST AND FOREMOST A STORE OF VALUE!!!
In case you were wondering Martin, even the BIS considers gold to be "money". In fact, gold is considered to be tier one capital on the balance sheet of central banks and banks in general. You can even ask Alan Greenspan this question whether gold is money or not. He has already answered "during a time of stress, gold is THE ULTIMATE form of settlement" (MONEY)! Or, ask the Chinese if gold is money? They are not importing the worlds entire global production to make solid gold toilets or bathtubs. They know gold is and always has been money. If they preferred dollars instead of gold then why are they not selling gold and securely storing dollar bills?
Lastly he says "Did gold rally because of fiat? No. Gold rallied because the banking system was collapsing. These people kept buying gold, swearing QE1-3 was inflationary, and lost all the way down because they failed to comprehend that this is not a battle against fiat." The term "QE" (quantitative easing) IS in fact synonymous with monetization of debt. This is also fact. In order to HIDE this fact, gold price has necessarily been suppressed. If you look at the graph below, it shows 293 paper contract gold ounces are now outstanding versus each real gold ounce held in COMEX registered inventories. How is this explained Mr. Armstrong? This is not manipulation? Is this not the reverse of the manipulation you were squealing about when you were short silver while Warren Buffett was buying?
 ...I might add, this is exactly what a chart of gold would look like were it not for millions of fake and nonexistent gold ounces being sold to suppress the price!
To finish, Martin Armstrong "talks (writes) down" to his readers and in particular hard money advocates. In this instance he is just plain wrong no matter how much of a historian he believes himself to be. I asked the question yesterday whether part of his release deal was to "talk the federal mantra" regarding gold. He is clearly not representing history correctly and certainly a logic apologist when it comes to his denial of manipulation. In my opinion, I would say he is either "A Tool? A Fool? ...or rewriting history?
Let me put it this way, Martin Armstrong is either disingenuous (lying), completely wrong in his logic AND revising historical fact. I don't know about you as a reader but as for me, if you lie to me, try to tell me 2+2=5 or tell me a story I know is incorrect, I no longer will even listen to what you have to say. This is where I now am with Martin Armstrong. I thought prior to reading his missive he was "certifiable". Now I know he has "certified" himself in history ...WRITTEN history that can now only be rewritten in his own grandiose mind! 
Nov 5, 2015 - 2:12pm


I finally buy 75 more ounces of silver. I am targeting the Australian Kaenguruh , somewhere around 17€. It really is good price. I have been following it for days now, if I get it under 17€ after BLSBS tomorrow I'll be happy. You know, Silver measured in € has not moved that much recently, so it doesn't matter for me if we do not see the bottom of this down wave tomorrow.


AlienEyes Doctor J
Nov 5, 2015 - 2:35pm

Re : nicked my hand yesterday...

That reminded me, my wife gave me a new set of kitchen knives yesterday.

The use and care pamphlet than came with them included a warning to "never try to catch a falling knife".

The only thing I had seen up to now that came close was the tag on my wife's hair dryer that said "do not use in shower."

The chins must think we are all O'bozo supporters.

Nov 5, 2015 - 2:45pm

Gold has been down 13 days in the last 15 trading sessions

Gold has been down 13 days in the last 15 trading sessions;

It has only happen 2 times in the past 40 years.

And Comex is leveraged 1x300.

This manipulation is becoming parabolic. Like every parabolic move, this will reverse on a very brutal way. 

The end of this manipulation will be violent. 

Nov 5, 2015 - 2:49pm

Largest Volume day

on NUGT all year today at +10mm shares, yet only down 10%...

Nov 5, 2015 - 2:52pm

TPTB have most likely been fully manipulating the PM Market

since 2013, if not earlier ( where are you SS121 ? ). The constant swings up and down are designed to demoralize the physical buyers. Celebrate this strategy by buying some more gold and silver. I will tomorrow. I might top it off with some of those silver army guys. 

OBTW, Rob Kirby tells the ultimate story on Armstrong. According to Kirby, The Jail bird ran around bragging that he knew the metals were manipulated and that he was certain because he knew the guy who had the proof and he named the guy! Sure enough the guy ends up pushing up tulips and Kirby ends the story that Armstrong probably still does not know why he ended up in jail. But Martin does know falling typewriters hurt. 

Nov 5, 2015 - 3:08pm

The Scoshe continues to bleed gold

A little at a time. Drip, drip, drip...

Nov 5, 2015 - 3:08pm

Only way silver/gold is

Only way silver/gold is moving up tomorrow if what andrew macguire said it's true about the commericals actually splitting up.

If goldman/jp morgan is "pitting" the banks each other where Jp morgan/goldman secretly going long while other banks going short.

I am not sure. I hope silver just crashes and fill 14.40 gap sooner then later so personally i don't have to worry about it

U think goldman mention that job report is being great JUST to throw off the other banks?

then this will fit in nicely with what macguire says.

argh, not sure what to do.

kenmasters675 usk
Nov 5, 2015 - 3:13pm

I think gold has bottom out,

I think gold has bottom out, or close to bottom out.

ALL GAPS OF GLD IS FILLED...but remember commerical cares about silver, not gold

there is PLENTY of SLV gaps to get filled first...and silver RSI is still above 35...i expect gold to actually not go down that much and it's just silver dropping if jp morgan has it's way

but i don't know.....is maguire story legit? is silver going to 16 tomorrow or back to 14.30?

We are gonna find out fast if macguire is telling the truth...he said this "downdraft" will be limited

and going back to 14.25 doesn't seem limited.

Does anyone here heard ANY update on the macguire story!?!?

Goldman: "we have revised up our forecast for October nonfarm payroll growth to 190k from 175k previously"

What does this mean exactly? Is goldman secretly covering their shorts, going long, and expect other banks to go short so they can get wipe out?

Or am i thinking WAYYY too much about this andrew macguire thing? 

argh. this is why trading is impossible. Macguire been wrong bunch of times, but i don't know anymore

Nov 5, 2015 - 3:19pm




That's fine....just everyone withdraw all their cash...put into another bank and crash them.....shower of shite that they are Smash em bro! https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5_8KKUdr6SY
Markedtofuture TF
Nov 5, 2015 - 3:30pm

Re: Bill Holter on The Jailbird

Turd...Avi Gilburt takes Armstrong's case on manipulation...

Coming To The Defense upOf Martin Armstrong Regarding Gold

Avi Gilburt November 4, 2015

Those that are in my Trading Room at Elliottwavetrader.net know that I am not a huge fan of Mr. Martin Armstrong. Yet, I believe his perspective about the “manipulation” of gold is absolutely correct, and, unfortunately, he has been wrongfully maligned lately.

I have noted many times that Mr. Armstrong’s writings are often so ambiguous that one can interpret them to mean exactly opposite perspectives. In fact, I have seen people noting Mr. Armstrong to support the exact opposite perspectives, but each using the same quotes from his writings. 

Furthermore, there is no question about his checkered past, and entanglements with our legal system. And, no, I don’t believe it is because he “knew too much.”

But, I believe the attacks of him we have seen of late are completely unwarranted. In fact, it is those who have been wrong for the last 4 years that have been spewing venom his way of late, possibly to take the spotlight off the fact of how wrong they really have been.

In two recent articles I have read, Mr. Armstrong was taken to task for daring to claim that the gold market was not manipulated to drop from $1,900 to $1,100. One of the articles posits that “it is well documented that markets are in fact manipulated and done so in the directions central banks and sovereign treasuries wish. This is now FACT by admission of various central bankers, various sovereign treasury officials ...and various admissions of guilt from financial firms who were doing the dirty work!”

But, Mr. Armstrong correctly claims that the long term trend cannot be subverted to the extent that it is meaningfully altered. While Mr. Armstrong has recognized that there certainly can be smaller degrees of manipulation at times, the longer term trend is unalterable. It is with this proposition that the recent authors have taken him to task.

However, Mr. Armstrong is 100% correct. 

In fact, Ralph Nelson Elliott noted this decades ago: continued...


Nov 5, 2015 - 3:32pm

Spoofer could get 25 years

on CNBS right now!

poor sap and to think of all the fraud on Wall Street where the regulators look the other way.

Morally and ethically corrupt society of the highest order

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