Grandma Janet's Tea Party

Tue, Oct 27, 2015 - 11:09am

The lousy US economic news continues today as both "orders for durable goods" and "consumer confidence" were reported to be ugly. Will this impact Mother Fellen and Her Goons as they begin their latest FOMC Bridge and Tea Party?

Of course every one of Mother Fellen's tea parties begins with the presentation of the doilies. A source inside The Goon Squad confirms that this month's winner was crocheted by Jeffrey Lacker of the Richmond Fed. Lacker gets the ceremonial first prize of a banana as well as the adulation of Mother Fellen, herself, for his fine work shown below. Great job, Jeff!

After this afternoon's tea and this evening's bridge party, they'll all get down to work tomorrow morning when they craft the latest installment of "the most important FOMC Fedlines...ever". Will there be a rate hike? Maybe just a teeny-tiny 1/8 of a point? Don't count on it. However, DO count on some type of jawboning verbiage that will set what remains of LIESman's hair on fire. Maybe some changes to the rate expectation scatter-plot or perhaps the inclusion of the word "when" in a key paragraph. Either way, after the debacle of September, you must expect some type of "hawkish" nonsense. Enough to rally the USDJPY and drag stock futures up with it. As you can see below, though it's not always a direct 1:1 and tick-by-tick correlation, the HFT-driven illusion of markets remains.

A key indicator of what is likely coming continues to be crude. For over a year we've chronicled how crude has its own HFT-driven correlation with the euro and that trade is, no doubt, pounding crude lower again now. Regardless, crude falling back toward $40 as it did last summer is once again a clear indication of the disinflation bias trade. And what is the key driver of this trade? A rising POSX/Pig. And what did we just lay out above as the likely outcome of the current FOMC? A rising POSX/Pig. So, for ole Turd, this current crash of crude is telling us what is to come. Namely, more downside and more disinflation bias.

And it's not just crude. It looks like you can see this coming in things like platinum and copper, too:

So, what levels must we be watching in our precious gold and silver? See below. Any break UP and through the respective 200-day MAs would be a positive development. More likely is a break down and through the black support lines drawn. By doing so, The Cartel Banks would speed an exodus of the late-coming, momo-chasing specs.

So, hang in there and keep the faith. Turd has not yet "taken one for the team" by buying puts but we'll keep you posted. We may just wait for price to fall back to the trend arrows shown above and then buy calls, instead. We'll see.

More later.


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boomstick · Oct 27, 2015 - 11:12am



Edit: Yes! BTW, Craig, the part about the doilies was hilarious!

LostMind · Oct 27, 2015 - 11:19am


Time to lose her mind again

2c piece · Oct 27, 2015 - 11:20am

Thank you.

Thank you Craig for the new post. Congratulations Bloomstick on your first. Edit: waiting for the Feds bridge party to result in a bridge to far.

· Oct 27, 2015 - 11:21am
· Oct 27, 2015 - 11:23am

More de-dollarization

4 oz · Oct 27, 2015 - 11:23am
· Oct 27, 2015 - 11:25am

Forgot to add this...

This week's A2A will feature a return visit by the one and only Ranting Andy:

boomstick · Oct 27, 2015 - 11:30am

re CDS

The article incorrectly sets the threshold for external review -- only unanimous votes can avoid review by external lawyers (12-14 out of 15 require a 3-0 ruling to reverse, 8-11 require 2-1 (which effectively is the same as punting to the lawyers)). I can point to examples where there was a solid majority, and the lawyers reversed... Cemex is a good example there.

procog · Oct 27, 2015 - 11:31am

4th, Saved for Tight Butt. "The Sun is Boss."

@Nephi, Thank you for the Innuit info:

Anonymous says:

"I live in a house that was built in 1899, I was born there and lived my entire young years living in the house. There are two middle posts holding up the roof of the porch and a porch swing that aligns with the two posts. In my very young years I would sit in the swing in the early morning sunrises and make notes showing the exact points the sun rose every morning and the setting points every evening from the other side of the porch. Looking back at the old photos and notes and drawings I can tell you all that the rising and setting points are not the same as back in the late 30's, thru the 40's and on till today. According to my sundial, compass and the 100 yr old pines about 1/2 mile away the earth has tilted off its axis from where it was when I was a child by several degrees south. Also the seasons are later in the calendar year. When I was a school kid, we had COLD days in september and most if not all our crops were harvested by then and it was snowing much earlier' Things are not as they were and it has been reported by credible professionals and others, and DENIED by politicians, bankers, ecofreaks, govt "scientists" and corporate criminal thugs. Wake up stupid people and stop believing the krap being smeared on your face and in your brains by liberals.

4 oz · Oct 27, 2015 - 11:31am

Those are my grandfather's hands

He worked on these:

I sit inside all day and "work" on this:

And to think...I have the audacity to occasionally bitch about how tough and stressful it all is...

Thanks, 4oz, for the reality check. Much appreciated.

Silverhog · Oct 27, 2015 - 11:34am

Same old crap

Citi Bank saying Gold will average $1000 in Q1 2016. Citing a strong dollar and higher interest rates. Another blind stab as investment advice which smells of banking mind games for the final Dec. price fix. Let's defuse any thoughts of a higher yearly close now. 

· Oct 27, 2015 - 11:49am

Full disclosure

OK, I did it.

Haven't bought an option of any kind in months. However, to "put money where my keyboard is" and in order to "take one for the team"...Ole Turd is now the owner of 4 $36 AGQ puts that expire one week from Friday. Cost me a little over $400.

Blythesshrink TF · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:00pm

Good to know the ABX is still

Good to know the ABX is still going to launch at some point - surprised they haven't issued an update given the plan was to launch in the Autumn/fall. Maybe the fact that they haven't though indicates that it's very imminent?

matt_ · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:02pm

Re: Full disclosure

So that means it is time for me to buy some junior mining penny stocks and shares of JNUG? smiley

J Siefert · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:04pm

Oil going down

Seems incredible to me that it is so cheap!

What is the reason? Because Iran is coming back as a supplier soon? Or is it paper traders effing about? *confused*

tyberious · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:05pm

Pope Francis Addresses Synod

Pope Francis Addresses Synod Of Bishops: Authentic Life Professes And Proclaims Mercy.

by Volubrjotr

Below, please find the official English translation of the Holy Father's address: Dear Beatitudes, Eminences and Excellencies, Dear Brothers and Sisters, I would like first of all to thank the Lord, who has guided our synodal process in these years by his Holy Spirit, whose support is never lacking to the Church. My heartfelt thanks […]

Read more of this post

ReachWest · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:08pm

Bullion Capital

After reading that posting regarding Bill Hubard joining Bullion Capital, I checked out their site and noted that it looks like they are gearing up to go live soon(?). As I recall - they were supposed to begin operations last spring - but were delayed.

Any updates on the current status, Turd?

I'm also quite curious as to what impact others Turdites think this trading platform might have on the price discovery mechanisms for bullion. There was a lot of banter about this early on - but - it's been very quiet of late.

Blythesshrink · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:11pm

Jim Rickards view on this Wed

Jim Rickards view on this Wed - expect more Fed nonsense about rate hikes - which would be consistent with the cartel COT positioning.

 24h24 hours ago

. No. More tough talk on rate hikes, but in the end they will ease. Fed is always the last to know.

ReachWest · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:11pm

re ABX

Last week, Tom told me that a soft launch was "imminent" with full rollout to follow.

I'll be sure to let everyone know the next time I hear something.

tyberious · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:14pm

What is the fair vaule of Gold

SKU_Vlog_002: What is the Fair Value of Gold? Ounces Over Dollars, P1

by smartknowledgeu

Today, we discuss how most people mistakenly value gold by its fiat currencies instead of its proper valuation methodology of weight, and the reasons why this false valuation methodology persists....

SKU_Vlog_002: What is the Fair Value of Gold? Ounces Over Dollars, P2

by smartknowledgeu

Today, we discuss how most people mistakenly value gold by its fiat currencies instead of its proper valuation methodology of weight, and the reasons why this false valuation methodology persists....

canary · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:19pm
Joseph Warren TF · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:20pm

Re: Full disclosure

Love it, Turd ! laugh

I stopped trading this stuff awhile ago. But it's great to follow someone else's thinking & strategy, and see how it works out. As you know, most trades do not work out - so its a game of cut your losses & ride your winners. Cash management.

That's one reason I come to your site. If/when the time comes when you see consistent gains from trading (hopefully on the long side) I'll go more heavily into PM related assets.

tyberious · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:21pm

This is best consigned to the forums

However, I will post this link that I received from podcast guest, Charlie Johnston. Offers an excellent bit of clarity on this subject.

Joseph Warren · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:23pm

Thanks, Joe

As you say..."if/when the time comes"...we might still have some fun with a "trade tracking service" utilizing the mothballed "Turd's Stream" component of the site. Nothing planned for now, however.

MiningJunkie · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:25pm

Gold headed to $1,115

A move to $1,115 would crush sentiment and rout the Large Specs giving the bad guys a chance to cover - only problem is that the PM stocks are acting really well and they lead the physical prices...

· Oct 27, 2015 - 12:31pm

GDPnow downticks again

Now just +0.8%...even given the quintuple seasonal adjustments...

Mickey · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:36pm

interest rates

in a few days, assuming the suspension of debt ceiling is approved, the US will issue a shit load of treasuries to unwind the extreme measures.

who is going to buy those? And at what interest rate. Whats the incentive? Our rates are still higher than most others as we are not yet negative. But China is not buying and given we have ships near them, China might sell more treasuries and dollars to screw us over. Might have been bad timing to send ships into South China Sea. But I do not think our adm plays 3 dimensional chess. or even one dimensional chess. Maybe checkers.

Who has the leverage--the US, or Russia, China Iran? It is all about leverage and we have ceded it.

SamSchlepps J Siefert · Oct 27, 2015 - 12:37pm

@siefert - oil going down

there always seems to be a reason behind the reason behind the manipulation, But, the surface reasons given may include the reality of less demand and announced future sale of SPR assets.

Oil futures dropped on Tuesday, holding ground at a two-month low after the U.S. government announced plans to sell millions of barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and as traders bet on a further weekly increase in crude supplies.

Global demand growth is expected to slow from its five-year high of 1.8 mb/d in 2015 to 1.2 mb/d in 2016 - closer towards its long-term trend as previous price support is likely to wane. Recent downgrades to the macro-economic outlook are also filtering through.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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