Grandma Janet's Tea Party

Tue, Oct 27, 2015 - 11:09am

The lousy US economic news continues today as both "orders for durable goods" and "consumer confidence" were reported to be ugly. Will this impact Mother Fellen and Her Goons as they begin their latest FOMC Bridge and Tea Party?

Of course every one of Mother Fellen's tea parties begins with the presentation of the doilies. A source inside The Goon Squad confirms that this month's winner was crocheted by Jeffrey Lacker of the Richmond Fed. Lacker gets the ceremonial first prize of a banana as well as the adulation of Mother Fellen, herself, for his fine work shown below. Great job, Jeff!

After this afternoon's tea and this evening's bridge party, they'll all get down to work tomorrow morning when they craft the latest installment of "the most important FOMC Fedlines...ever". Will there be a rate hike? Maybe just a teeny-tiny 1/8 of a point? Don't count on it. However, DO count on some type of jawboning verbiage that will set what remains of LIESman's hair on fire. Maybe some changes to the rate expectation scatter-plot or perhaps the inclusion of the word "when" in a key paragraph. Either way, after the debacle of September, you must expect some type of "hawkish" nonsense. Enough to rally the USDJPY and drag stock futures up with it. As you can see below, though it's not always a direct 1:1 and tick-by-tick correlation, the HFT-driven illusion of markets remains.

A key indicator of what is likely coming continues to be crude. For over a year we've chronicled how crude has its own HFT-driven correlation with the euro and that trade is, no doubt, pounding crude lower again now. Regardless, crude falling back toward as it did last summer is once again a clear indication of the disinflation bias trade. And what is the key driver of this trade? A rising POSX/Pig. And what did we just lay out above as the likely outcome of the current FOMC? A rising POSX/Pig. So, for ole Turd, this current crash of crude is telling us what is to come. Namely, more downside and more disinflation bias.

And it's not just crude. It looks like you can see this coming in things like platinum and copper, too:

So, what levels must we be watching in our precious gold and silver? See below. Any break UP and through the respective 200-day MAs would be a positive development. More likely is a break down and through the black support lines drawn. By doing so, The Cartel Banks would speed an exodus of the late-coming, momo-chasing specs.

So, hang in there and keep the faith. Turd has not yet "taken one for the team" by buying puts but we'll keep you posted. We may just wait for price to fall back to the trend arrows shown above and then buy calls, instead. We'll see.

More later.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 27, 2015 - 11:12am



Edit: Yes! BTW, Craig, the part about the doilies was hilarious!

Oct 27, 2015 - 11:19am


Time to lose her mind again

2c piece
Oct 27, 2015 - 11:20am

Thank you.

Thank you Craig for the new post. Congratulations Bloomstick on your first. Edit: waiting for the Feds bridge party to result in a bridge to far.

Oct 27, 2015 - 11:21am
Clarkii Stomias
Oct 27, 2015 - 11:22am
Oct 27, 2015 - 11:23am

More de-dollarization

4 oz
Oct 27, 2015 - 11:23am
Oct 27, 2015 - 11:25am

Forgot to add this...

This week's A2A will feature a return visit by the one and only Ranting Andy:

Oct 27, 2015 - 11:30am

re CDS

The article incorrectly sets the threshold for external review -- only unanimous votes can avoid review by external lawyers (12-14 out of 15 require a 3-0 ruling to reverse, 8-11 require 2-1 (which effectively is the same as punting to the lawyers)). I can point to examples where there was a solid majority, and the lawyers reversed... Cemex is a good example there.

Oct 27, 2015 - 11:31am

4th, Saved for Tight Butt. "The Sun is Boss."

@Nephi, Thank you for the Innuit info:

Anonymous says:

"I live in a house that was built in 1899, I was born there and lived my entire young years living in the house. There are two middle posts holding up the roof of the porch and a porch swing that aligns with the two posts. In my very young years I would sit in the swing in the early morning sunrises and make notes showing the exact points the sun rose every morning and the setting points every evening from the other side of the porch. Looking back at the old photos and notes and drawings I can tell you all that the rising and setting points are not the same as back in the late 30's, thru the 40's and on till today. According to my sundial, compass and the 100 yr old pines about 1/2 mile away the earth has tilted off its axis from where it was when I was a child by several degrees south. Also the seasons are later in the calendar year. When I was a school kid, we had COLD days in september and most if not all our crops were harvested by then and it was snowing much earlier' Things are not as they were and it has been reported by credible professionals and others, and DENIED by politicians, bankers, ecofreaks, govt "scientists" and corporate criminal thugs. Wake up stupid people and stop believing the krap being smeared on your face and in your brains by liberals.

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
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8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
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6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

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