Caution Here

Mon, Oct 12, 2015 - 11:08am

As we discussed in Friday's podcast, be on the lookout for some Cartel selling this week as gold approaches some key resistance and silver gets a bit overextended.

Gold rallied overnight and extended those gains in the NY pre-open. However, check the high for the day...$1168.60. And what was the intraday high back on "Blue Monday", August 24? $1169.80. So in order to make our first "higher high" in a while, gold needs to plow through that $1170 area. Is there any surprise, then, that it stopped just below and has now reversed back down to $1162?

Of course, there's still a possibility that it could break through $1170 and keep moving higher. It's above it's 2015 downtrend line AND it's CoT structure isn't that bad. IF it can keep moving higher, the obvious target is the 200-day moving average, found today near $1178:

And even longer term, watch for key resistance near $1230 and this 2.5-year down arrow:

However, and as discussed on Friday, my main concern continues to be what They may be preparing to do to silver in the short term. Though gold may continue to climb higher AND though this may help silver hang in there, the CoT structure has changed significantly AND there are two other factors which concern me:

And, I don't know, but do you see a little JPM cap going on at the 200-day? Maybe?? Or is it just me???

I mean, seriously. How many times have we seen this pattern play out? A thousand times? It's like Groundhog Day!

  1. Price rallies on some fundamental news or simple short covering.
  2. Cartel Bank (JPM) sells like crazy in order to manage the rally.
  3. Price gets hard capped at some key technical point or moving average.
  4. Momentum stalls.
  5. Bank raids price to set the trend back lower.
  6. All of the brand new Spec longs immediately head for the exits and get flushed back out.

So, would a drop back toward the black UP arrow and the 50-day moving average surprise anyone? Not me!

It's a bank holiday in the U.S. today so be wary of the action overnight and into tomorrow when The Monkeys return to their desks. I'll be typing a public post next that details the latest BPR and we'll have the usual podcast later, too, so please be sure to check back later.

Have a great day.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 12, 2015 - 11:10am



Mr. Fix
Oct 12, 2015 - 11:10am



Oct 12, 2015 - 11:14am



TF Metals fan
Oct 12, 2015 - 11:14am


And read it

Dr. P. Metals
Oct 12, 2015 - 11:16am

(Reserved for Marchas)


Edit: sorry Marchas...

Oct 12, 2015 - 11:19am

Thanks Turd

I think I will hold off getting back into uslv and see how the week works out. Silver around $15 would be a great opportunity.

Of course the South China Sea may change matters.

Oct 12, 2015 - 11:19am


? Maybe we will get some much needed juice by the DXY rolling over?

4 oz
Oct 12, 2015 - 11:43am


Dang these things are tiny; Scare me to death I'll lose 'em!

Nick Elway 4 oz
Oct 12, 2015 - 12:12pm

Even tinier and scarier: If

Even tinier and scarier:

If gold gets to $5000 the ounce these could be useful.

Oct 12, 2015 - 12:16pm

Don't lose them

4 oz,

I gave a little stack to my son for safekeeping. Now he regularly asks me where they are to be sure that I remember, since I forgot once and couldn't find them. I searched like a crazed prospector, tearing the house apart that day ... And there they were, right in plain sight, on the bedroom floor under a pile of socks and underwear on my side of the bed. They had fallen from under my pillow.

Oct 12, 2015 - 12:17pm


US and Toronto same miners. Who goes to jail? Nobody.

Oct 12, 2015 - 12:26pm
Oct 12, 2015 - 12:27pm

Call me an optimist here

When I look this graph, this is sure we are about to suffer again an abc style correction in Silver:

The 200 DMA (green line) is acting like a strong resistance + The down trend is hard to break; actually this down move has never been broken. But... when I look action in miners I don't see a significant volume like the one we observed last may.

They sure would like to cap and flush but I don't see many shorts coming up at this game again. This is NOT May again in miners. For now. I think we need to see volume picking up on a down move in miners to confirm this correction. Personally, I think we may not get this one this time. But I have been so wrong this year...

Oct 12, 2015 - 12:31pm

Ben Carson may be my new hero

Surely everyone did not miss this article this morning... First he defends gun ownership, now he shows that he understands what fiat money is all about.

Ben Carson Upsets Mainstream Media: Openly Questions Fiat Money

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2015 - 12:04

Neurosurgeon-turned-Presidential candidate Ben Carson has been under attack this week by the defenders of the Keynesian faith as he questioned fiat money and flirted with a new gold standard.

Oct 12, 2015 - 12:44pm

This week's JMB special


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Oct 12, 2015 - 12:44pm

Ben Carson

Just read that as well, maybe there IS hope! Unfortunately this will put a target on his back.

Oct 12, 2015 - 12:55pm

Tweet from Sandeep

Clearly referencing that piece of trash from marketwatch:

Oct 12, 2015 - 1:08pm

Sheep Alert!

This is most amusing... ---- Media analyst Mark Dice offers random people a free 100 ounce silver bullion bar if they can guess its approximate value, plus or minus 50% like on the game show the Price is Right. How much does the general public know about the value of precious metals like gold and silver?

Oct 12, 2015 - 1:11pm

Gentle Ben

Good for him.

Oct 12, 2015 - 1:19pm

Dr J

"They had fallen from under my pillow."

Excellent hiding place. A burglar would never think of looking there.

I hide my stash on the kitchen table. Safe as houses.

Oct 12, 2015 - 1:20pm

Backwardation evening update

After ten hours of higher prices, silver is still failing to sustain any meaningful backwardation and since the drop into the 15.80s that has only grown worse. There has been thin contango at times at these lower prices.

The implication is that the physical market is not providing support; possibly dip buyers are also making matters worse for the cobasis by buying contracts at this level. Those seeking to manage sentiment and perception are probably looking at a similar (more accurate) chart and I would not be surprised if this looks like a low risk moment to take off a percent or two.

It is now 10 days since we have had even a couple of hours with 2 cents of backwardation (October 2nd). In an environment of higher prices and big moves with a much lower cobasis it is more difficult to see what the physical market is doing. Amid reports that the retail shortage is improving, I am now becoming curious to see how the wholesale physical market responds after a step down or a period of sideways drift.

Radio out.

Oct 12, 2015 - 1:21pm

Why I don't support Carson...

"Carson: No exemptions on immunizations"

Washington (CNN)Republican Ben Carson said on Tuesday vaccinations should be mandatory, with no religious or philosophical exemptions, and schools should check to make sure children have received them.

Oct 12, 2015 - 1:31pm
LostMind heathbr
Oct 12, 2015 - 1:47pm

Re: Cool Idea

Great Idea indeed...

Better yet, is his ability to actually post a loss on the food while he drops in todays currency to replace the "old" currency... For every $0.12 (on paper) he post a loss of $3-4!

He gets his cake and gets to eat it too! I just hope people actually take him up on it for his sake! Cash business is the best for this type of activity!!!

Oct 12, 2015 - 1:54pm

Interesting development

Julian Assange: Police end guard at Wikileaks founder's embassy refuge

Police will no longer be stationed outside the Ecuadorean embassy in London where Wikileaks founder Julian Assange has sought refuge since 2012.

Met Police officers had been there since Mr Assange sought asylum to avoid extradition to Sweden over a rape allegation, which he denies.

The Met said it had cost £12.6m and was "no longer proportionate" - but it would still try to arrest him.

Wikileaks said the decision did not change Mr Assange's situation.

Oct 12, 2015 - 2:11pm

Steve Curtis Show


Great job! An Excellent and Informative interview for the general public. You do a clear job of delivering the message. That's how we change the world. Thanks!

Oct 12, 2015 - 2:15pm

double post from Cartel Banks... thread

Gold is up today, but the HUI is getting smashed!

Profit taking, or are miners also being sold short?

Does anyone know how to answer this question?

I'm sure there must be an information source.

Oct 12, 2015 - 2:28pm


miners were nicely green pre market-just another smash.

miners already up 20% for the month--this could get dangerous for the Fed

this country is seriously screwed up

Oct 12, 2015 - 2:31pm

Re the HUI

Please go back and check Friday's podcast thread. The HUI is overbought with an RSI above 70. It's due to cool off for a few days.

Oct 12, 2015 - 2:41pm

@Turd Re: The HUI

Yes, no doubt some profit taking, great call, but let me rephrase my question:

Is there an information source where we can determine the extent to which miners comprising the HUI are being sold short?


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