If You Think This Is Bad...

Fri, Sep 11, 2015 - 11:51am

Look, we've been discussing/warning for weeks that this "disinflation bias" could lead the paper dumpers to smash everything, across the board, and that, if all of this volatility makes you queasy, now would be an excellent time to have some put options as a hedge against paper price drops. Look around today. Do you see any reason to change this somewhat dismal short-term outlook?

We've had a nice (Calvin?) bounce as the disinflation fears seemed to ease with a rising yen. However, the charts are undeniably bad for gold, silver and the miners. Additionally, as we've been watching this week, crude and platinum look like hell and copper is giving back some of it's early week squeeze gains, too. Stocks are down and bonds are rallying. This all has the look of a renewed Disinflation Bias and Fear trade and, as we head toward next week's all-important Fedlines, it's likely to get worse.

What does this mean for you? Prepare for anything and everything.

But let's begin with a story that I've been watching bubble just below the surface for the past few weeks. Rather than waste time spelling out all of the details (we can always do that if/when this gets worse), just read the concluding paragraph from ZH below. If this piques your interest, then go ahead and read the full article. The point is this: A continued commodity meltdown may very well spark the destruction of Glencore...the impact on gold and silver would be completely unpredictable...and, it could very well impact ALL markets in a 2008-style daisy chain lock-up/meltdown.

"Finally, some have started to ask: what happens if Glencore were to fail? Well, since Glencore is not just a miner, but probably the world's largest commodity trading desk, and is a key commodity counterparty for everyone, the answer is simple: Lehman... only this time in the commodity space."


So, let's check the awful charts. To save time...and because we'll certainly cover these in today's podcast...let's go through these quickly.

As you know, the HFTs in the equities, gold and some commodities are all trading nearly 1:1 with changes to the dollar-yen (USDJPY). The yen broke out of a 3-year downtrend three weeks ago and is still holding somewhat firm. But what do we KNOW about the breaking of long term trend? You almost always get a test of potential support as price comes back down and "rides the line". The pennant you see on the daily chart could easily be broken...of, I don't know...on Thursday of next week maybe? If that happens, the yen could easily cruise back down to ride the old trendline near 80 and potentially attempt a double bottom. And how would that impact gold, silver and the commodities? Furthermore, how would that impact a sick and dying company like Glencore? And if Glencore begins a death spiral, how will that impact EVERYTHING? (See what it's like in my world?)

Regardless of all the speculation above, the chart of gold is undeniably terrible. By breaking down again today, it looks like a test of the lows near $1080 is coming and a breakdown through there would open the door for $1045.

And I almost stumbled into this during the podcast a day or two ago...Let's just say all of the anecdotal reports of wholesale gold shortages are all real and true and that London truly is empty. You must therefore assume that The Evil Banks KNOW this. The Banks would therefore be preparing now for an eventual force majeure or cash settlement of futures or whatever. Well, hell's bells. Just last Friday, we found out that The 24 Criminals on the BPR are still NET SHORT 72,347 Comex gold contracts. Do you think they'd like to reduce that position a bit before all hell breaks loose? Probably! If The Bastards could swing all the way back to NET LONG before system demise, they could leave the hedge funds and other specs holding the bag as shorts that failed to deliver. Look, I'm not saying that this has to happen, but it's definitely something you need to be thinking about.

And silver is horrible, too. We discussed how bad things looked back on 8/26 when it broke to new lows and below $14. Well, now that it has broken down and out of the $14.40-14.90 range we've been following, it's nearly impossible to believe that a test of that $13.95 isn't coming. And if/when that levels fails (and it very likely will), you're looking at the possibility of $12. Again, please recall how many times we've discussed the necessity of put hedges if all of this makes you nauseous. However, if all of this really does mean a final, 2008-style washout, the final dip and buying opportunity will be one for the record books. Is that worth pulling/hoping for? For some of us, maybe. For others...again, please take whatever steps are necessary to avoid a mental/personal breakdown.

And the HUI...oh, crap. How many times over the past few weeks have we discussed that a break of 105 would be a precursor for a reading in the double digits? Well, here you go! I have a last of 101.69. Again, if you've never owned the miners and you've avoided the excruciating pain of the past 3+ years, this is a potential gold mine (pun intended). If the HUI is now headed to a final low near 75 or even 60, this would present a true opportunity of a lifetime for anyone fortunate enough to pick up a few shares of the survivors. Could this be coming? Maybe. Could something under 100 be coming, at a minimum? Almost certainly.

Exacerbating all of this and indicative of future pain are the charts of crude, copper and platinum. Crude and copper look ready to reverse and re-plunge and platinum looks headed toward old lows, just like gold.

There's so much more to discuss but it's already 11:51 a.m. EDT and I need to get this posted. Again, we'll be sure to explore what these "markets" might be telling you to expect next week during today's podcast so please be sure to check back later today or over the weekend. I'll give you a hint, though, and this very much pertains to the theme of this post...namely that the Disinflation Bias trade is about to intensify and potentially get out of control. What could happen next Thursday that would cause this and why would the central market planners have the notion that rising rates might even make their all-important "stock market" go up? Think about that and I'll explain my reasoning later today.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 11, 2015 - 11:54am

First and read it :)

I'm crying over the latest beast down...

Sep 11, 2015 - 12:05pm

What First?

We will see. Yep!!! Keep Stacking

I see silver heading back up today and on Thursday, their going to collapse everything by raising the rates. Watch out Derivatives......

Mr. Fix
Sep 11, 2015 - 12:11pm

If You Think This Is Bad...

But it is… really, it really is bad…wink

On a much brighter note, I feel no remorse at all now for swiping fourth! smiley

Sep 11, 2015 - 12:14pm

There is plenty of Silver

Ignore all the hype

No need to buy now

Remember GT, " they will be throwing it out their windows" and he is credible.

Silver us useless

Why buy it?

There, I did my good deed for the day.

Feel Better. 

Now I can sleep

Hope everybody listens

Sep 11, 2015 - 12:22pm

auag - GT also said....

Hillary Clinton was going to come clean and be a national hero. I smell a lot of credibility.... Or maybe my sarcasm meter is broken. This " plenty of silver " idea (which is Keynesian in nature) get real thin wh3n one considers that right now, less than 1/2 of 1 percent of the population is making a run on silver. What happens when 1%, 2%, 3%, etc. Get the same idea? Buy early, buy often and don't keep score in monopoly dollars.

Sep 11, 2015 - 12:24pm

Silver Shortage

the continuing silver shorages s s s are retail shortages caused by demand increase. And that demand increase is largely from new stackers leaving the system and obtaining physical Silver.

whether there is or is not plenty of wholesale silver, or plenty of mined Silver or plenty of Silver left in planet Earth is not of primary importance. Shortage of available retail product is of primary importance.

And that the shortage is being caused by demand from the retail public is also of primary importance.

Those are the 2 primary important factors.

If planet Earth suddenly had 80% less Silver tomorrow, but the retail shelves were still completely full of available product, no problem. Perception is reality to a herd of awakening newb stackers.

Sep 11, 2015 - 12:30pm


Well I was going to go to the LCS but after reading that I don't know hahaha... Whatever, it won't be any different than the past few years.

Sep 11, 2015 - 12:35pm


It is going to get a lot worse. "again, please take whatever steps are necessary to avoid a mental/personal breakdown." I can feel myself crawling into my cave. Thank you Turd for Turdville. I fear that they (TPTB) may turn out our lights, and thereby have the magnificent setup to ride to our rescue. Pathological, sociopathic personalities have no bounds. Other than an EMP attack, can they shut down the internet just in the Western world? My computer skills have gone retard. Maybe I should re-introduce myself to HAM and CB/Shortband. Enjoy family, friends and the Guy/Gal within.

Sep 11, 2015 - 12:38pm


My Mom had surgery on her ticker a while back. Had some blockage and they did some "plumbing". She did well, and the surgeon awesome. Hadn't felt better in years. After a lifetime of active, but no exercise, she has become a walker in her mid80's. She got a fitbit wristband. We were chatting and she said, I just walked 3 miles and burned 1500 calories....."uh, scuse me?" "1500?" No you didn't. Yes I did. No. Yes, the fitbit said so. So I gave her a brief, painful, unwanted dissertation of energy and work.....simplified it is Force times distance traveled. Mathematically, the integral of F dot dS....or you can just measure it in sweat,as sweat if a direct function of heat, a product of energy burned. I figure if I have drenched my shirt I have done somewhere near the better fraction of 1000 cals (technically kcals). You get my point. Sure that stuff you own is what that exchange says it is....riiiiiiiiiiiight. It's 2000 and that nazz stock is worth $700 (uh, no it is not)....using the internet, I found this nugget: "Each mile that a person walks burns roughly 100 calories" allrighty then...guess all that college calculus paid off.....

Sep 11, 2015 - 12:40pm

ZH is just teeing up what is already planned

the bros. have to revalue the usd/silver chart higher, or try and reflag it with the CNY... THEY HAVE TO

Physical demand from the public at these chart prices is KILLING them, as we have been discussing this morning.

ZH is going to project any future chart revaluations as being "market" related. They will never question the legitimacy of the actual chart itself, OR discuss the intentions or even existence of the owners of the charts, Or promote physical Silver as the true monetary metal that it is.

"look over there at all that bad stuff... some big unknown problems could come out of those bad things over there... keep looking over there... blah blah blah" then a bunch of chaos hits and the charts go up and the sheep march on. over and over and over they do this

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:01pm

You have been posting about "fake charts" and chart owners

And I still have no idea what you are talking about. 

If market participants from wholesalers, refiners, miners, retail all base transactions off the quoted price, then it's real. Albeit manipulated, but real nonetheless.

Pretend like I'm 5 and explain this thesis to me.

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:02pm

Additional color

We discussed this story in yesterday's post. Here's some more background. In a stunning development, that freaking Clapper seems to be at the heart of it. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/somethings-wrong-isis-intelligence-scanda...

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:12pm

LCS Report

Went to the biggest dealer in the region yesterday with a neighbor that was wanting to buy physical silver. 

Dealer is 85 years old, and is business model is to sell his personal stack, and then re-order the replacement silver from wholesalers. Said supply is tighter than he has seen. I asked him at what point he would stop selling his personal stack, in fear that he would never get it back from the wholesalers or suppliers. 

He said that he would close shop before that happened. 

He had loads of product though, but it's all his personal stuff. I'd say he had 100 oz of au in various forms, and 10,000 oz of silver. Neighbor paid $20.50 for ASE's, and $19 and change for 10 oz bars. Said nobody is selling, and he only comes across people wanting to buy volume. If he wasn't using his own stack, he wouldn't have any product on his shelves.

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:13pm

@Turd Re: Additional color

Just read that article and encountered this quote:

"The politicization of intelligence products would be a major issue, and these allegations need to be thoroughly investigated," Devin Nunes, the chair of the House intelligence committee, told Business Insider.

Oh, yeah! A major issue, like portraying Iraq as supporting Al-queeda and just hours away from nuking us! Devin Nunes seems like a code name for DUNCE! Just more of the same old same old! Bush, Obama, Clinton, what difference could it possibly make!

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:15pm
4 oz
Sep 11, 2015 - 1:22pm

An Actual Lil Rant Here Cuz I'm Off Today.

Know this is blaspheme or darn close...but ya know...fwiw...I don't pay that much attention to ZH, and when I do I read most everything there with the same skeptical eye as reading at Silver Doctors or KWN or Shitco..... lots of hot air out there to choose from that's for sure. They all get paid by the word and need lots of click numbers to help them market....

I snoop at all of these sights, & more every day, Love SD Bullion, JMBullion, APMEX & Provident and have used them all.....Good info and no issues buying to speak of. Do a lot of reconnaissance at my LCS's and trust what I can see 1st hand as much as anything.

I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, so I chase insight from all comers. I listen to Bo, and Eric Dubin. To John Embry and the Wealth Watchman. To Harvy to Holter to SGT to RawDog to Morgan, Murphy, Sprott & Kranzler. 

IMHO, the best information and inspiration is found right here at TFMR.

Can't say I know the future, but I do know Who holds it. Chances are high, I'm thinking, that way sooner than before I'll be expecting it...I'll be saying,.... "Now? Really? But I'm not done yet!" and in a blink be outside time....

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:27pm


The King of the North (Russia) teaming up with the King of the South (Iran). Mmmm... where have I read about that before??

Swift Boat Vet
Sep 11, 2015 - 1:30pm

Question for Turd

Isn't China planning to start their own contracts for oil, etc starting in October and priced in Yuan? Could the Comex/BBs etc be planning for that to rid themselves of the albatross the precious metals markets are becoming? 

Would this provide their 'out' and charts continuing south their means to rid themselves of their short positions and turn long?

Doesn't this also provide a means for China to indirectly challenge USA through trade rather than head on by other monetary means? (Jim Willie's scenario, I believe)


Sep 11, 2015 - 1:34pm

I'll vote for anyone

for President, that will demand Clapper be prosecuted,- and has a guaranteed smoking gun-airtight case, to guarantee his sentencing for treason. He is and the millions of minions in his camp ARE the problem. I'll settle with him and give him life in prison instead of execution if he can sell out a thousand folks...and each of them in turn, another few hundred. or- how about a new reality show. We drop Clapper off into Northern Iraq, naked, and to win he has to clean up this shitshow. Clean up meaning Iraq is restored to 2000 status. He is an asshole. Why was he not prosecuted for perjury when he lied to Wyden, then admitted the lie two months later? Oh, look, KimK's ass is so perfectly huge!! Caitlan! we love you!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TPKC8F-Zz0

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:38pm

Iran!!?? Are you freaking kidding us?

Iran is the king of the south!!?? How the hell do you come to that "oh so convenient interpretation"?

Polar bears and penguins makes more sense, because penguins are actually from: the south. Iran is not "in the south", although it is somewhat south of some of Russia. Grasping at straws much?

I recommend that next time you take a stab at interpreting scriptures, try to inject a little credibility into it. I know that in that business credibility takes a back seat to fear, but you gotta remember who your audience is.

Mr. Fix
Sep 11, 2015 - 1:40pm

On Syria…

One of the advantages of exploring the rabbit hole, is having full knowledge that ISIS is fully owned and operated by the United States government. The "war on terror" is a total sham, the United States Government, a subsidiary of Western central banking interests is the only global terrorist.

Pres. Putin is finally calling the bluff, by finally engaging ISIS. America has now been caught with his pants down, if they were really interested in defeating terrorists, they would be killing off their own operatives. Most of the US military will no longer answer to Obama, which is why it is being systematically dismantled.

Vladimir Putin knows he can end the "global war on terror" by defending President Asaad.

I'm not seeing any options for Obama here, other than to call back his proxy army, and unleash them on his own populace.

Then it gets interesting…

Yeah, if you think it's bad now, just wait a couple months. Obama is no lame duck, he's just getting started with us.

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:44pm

Hot Day

Hot day and cold beer at the fair yesterday

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:47pm


You're right, BUT: "...the servant of the Lord must not strive; but be gentle unto all men, apt to teach, patient, In meekness instructing those that oppose themselves..."

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:54pm

Actually @benque - Persian King is King of the South

While I do not object, mind, or cry over what @bluebellkid wrote, it is interesting that you have such angst towards his post...

How about you DISPROVING his post versus the TIRED old slap it with hatred like most liberals do when they are to lazy to actually argue! Now, I do mean that with all due respect.

Life is to short to be so negative on anything biblical. If you are one of those who KNOWS without a shadow of a doubt that there is NO GOD and you do not care, then why would you be so bent up on IF someone who "without a shadow of doubt" believes in GOD and cares enough to bring attention to HIM to others before it is to late?!?!

Sorry Turd, I know you said take it outside, but the attack without the backup bit... must be my casino holdings....

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:56pm

Once again the reverse Yen/dollar algo doesn't work

Yen is up against the dollar but gold and silver still down. It looks like Turd and many others on this site have capitulated. Probably a good sign for a FUBM/JY recovery today and next week.

Sep 11, 2015 - 1:57pm

Speaking of Lies

I guess the only good thing that could come out of a little air combat skirmish with Russia over Syria would be a live test of the F35. The trillion dollar airborne segue or the master of technology: https://defensetech.org/2015/08/12/analyst-russian-mig-29-and-su-27-top-...

Sep 11, 2015 - 2:00pm


I'm nobody's servant, and I'm not meek. I certainly don't abide self-serving interpretations from any source, meant to induce fear.

Sep 11, 2015 - 2:03pm


Correlation is not causation. Fact is gold has gone up against every single currency....occasionally one wins out over the other, creating an illusion of correlation, imho. Fact is the gold bull actually started in other currencies before the dollar....but 15 years into it they are all about 75% down measured in gold ounces...dems facts. ALL you can do is stack. This weekend looks like a set up. Syria going hot with numbnuts at the helm. Hmmmm....maybe Russia is about to play their ace revealing the intelligence the US has always had, but hid from America. Undeniable proof, not hearsay...I know. I know. Our government would never lie. Actually, I think it is much more likely that they would never tell the truth.

Sep 11, 2015 - 2:08pm


John Hagee preached a sermon just for folks like you not even a month ago. Here's the link:

Video unavailable
Sep 11, 2015 - 2:12pm

Are the miners


gamble wishful thinking gamble

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