Interesting Days

109
Thu, Aug 20, 2015 - 11:21am

It seems that the entire investing world has caught on to the "disinflation bias" theme as stocks are sagging and bonds and rallying. The metals have moved up smartly again this morning and are once again poised to achieve breakout closes. Will they? Can they??

In spite of the continued nonsensical "analysis" that Fed rates hikes are right around the corner, the economic news today was once again lousy. Check out these three headlines from ZH:

So, with Mother Fellen still so insistent that rates hikes are necessary, global markets are anticipating the attendant disinflation/deflation that rate hikes would bring. Eventually...perhaps by the conclusion of the next FOMC on September 17...the "markets" will finally realize just how entirely full of crap she and the rest of the world's central bankers are. Rate hikes aren't next, more easing is next! The only solution that central banks offer is liquidity/cash/money-printing/QE...whatever you want to call it. As this reality takes hold, expect a surging rally in all commodities as we head into Q4.

The only question can be found in just how far stuff falls before this realization takes hold. Crude to $35? Copper to $2.20 or even $2.00? The S&P to 1850?

All I know is that it is very encouraging to see the metals rebounding so consistently. As we've been discussing, these rebounds are not in a straight line UP and both metals are certainly encountering stiff resistance along the way...BUT...their resilience in the face of all this other selling is something to behold and respect.

Overnight, gold surged through $1130 and $1140, eclipsing the 50-day MA ($1139) along the way. It is now pressed up against stout, important and critical resistance near $1150. As we've stated repeatedly over the past two weeks, the key now is two consecutive closes back above this important old support level. IF GOLD CAN ACCOMPLISH THIS, the Sunday Night Massacre of late July can be viewed as a false breakdown and reversal. This would...for good reason...put some real fear into the hearts of the smarty-pant, momo-chasing shorts that as of last week were still short a near-record amount of paper contracts on the Comex. I have a high in the Dec15 of $1151 and a last of $1149. Let's see what the rest of the day brings.

Again, IF we can continue to move forward from here, a move through the red downtrend arrow on the charts below would foreshadow a move to 80 and 00. Still not much to get excited about but at least back to even on the year and more than 0 off of the July lows.

In silver, we're pretty much right back to where we were last Friday, prior to the deliberate, manipulative raid that drive price back down almost 90¢ in two days. Earlier today, the Sep15 silver hit a high of .56. Not surprisingly, I have a last back below .50 at .47. Silver is back above its 50-day, however, which currently can be found near .28.

And now, too, silver is at a crossroads. IF it can accomplish two consecutive closes back above .50 (though, as you can see on the chart below, a case could be made for .40 instead), the false breakdown and reversal would be confirmed and silver could set its sights on .20 and even .00. But first, it needs a solid surge through .50. Can it do it??

The HUI has officially closed the gap on the chart near 128, left over from the open om July 20. With a last of nearly 131, the index is UP a remarkable 25% from the lows just two weeks ago! Do you now see why we keep such close track of the RSI and MACD levels? They were both so extremely "oversold" that a bounce was inevitable and now we've seen it. Again, the question is, what happens next? First and foremost, the index needs to hold above 130. We DO NOT want to see it fall back today or tomorrow and close back below 128. This would embolden the share bears who would likely resume their naked shorting into the neutralized technicals. So, just as in gold and silver, let's watch very closely to see what happens next.

Lastly, on Monday's podcast, we discussed the disinflation bias building for this week and the idea that S&P 2105 might be ripe for another fall. Well here it is, Thursday, and I have a last of 2054. Fifty S&P points is pretty sweet for anyone gambling! Now the question becomes, will we soon see "V"-reversal #19 since last October? Last Wednesday, when we predicted the most recent "V" #18, the intraday low was 2052. Who knows? Maybe this time, it's straight into the toilet? Maybe not. Those willing to gamble on "V" #19 might want to hold their noses, lay some chips on the table, cross their fingers and look away.

Amazingly, I have lasts of precisely $1150 and $15.50 so I think I'll stop here as the timing couldn't be more perfect. Stay safe out there and good luck!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  109 Comments

Aug 20, 2015 - 11:22am

Public post

I thought that, at this somewhat critical moment, it might be fun to make this a public post.

Old Howard
Aug 20, 2015 - 11:23am

1st

What?

Antony von Clearwell
Aug 20, 2015 - 11:25am

Lucky day!!

Furst..... :)

... Edit: sucond...... Still feel lucky :)

AIJ
Aug 20, 2015 - 11:25am

Yeah / Public Post

Troll city !

Should be fun.

captnb1
Aug 20, 2015 - 11:28am

Glad to be in the top 10

But scared if China continues down and the rest of the world follows it is indeed a time to be cautious.

Aug 20, 2015 - 11:29am

Latest update on Tsipras

To resign soon and elections are scheduled for Sunday the 20th of September...two days after the next FOMC.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-20/tsipras-reportedly-set-step-do...

Barfly
Aug 20, 2015 - 11:34am

confirmation

Of a false breakdown will not be permitted. The banksters are still in control and have too much incentive not to allow it. The markets show no signs of overwhelming them any time soon. Gold and Silver will not be recognized for their real value until after the system collapses. Tick toc.

kenmasters675
Aug 20, 2015 - 11:36am

silver can't seem to break

silver can't seem to break 15.52. There is a gap up and black candle stick, usually silver goes down after this.

Hmmm, wish it could break 15.52..

infometron
Aug 20, 2015 - 11:39am

Okay, I'm awake again

Au @ $1150 & Ag @ $15.50...

Should I get up now, or just go back to sleep...?

@Barfly, I see what your advice is... Zzzzz

(I'll wait until the alarm goes off)

lund175
Aug 20, 2015 - 11:48am

The Daily Coin and Alasdair Macleod

This is a excellent talk all the way through but pay attention to about the 18-22 min mark. Really good stuff.

Since China has rolled out a series of currency devaluations and made two different public announcements regarding their official gold holdings it seemed like a perfect time to check in with Alasdair Macleod. On the surface the currency devaluations were not that significant. The announcement regarding their official gold holdings did not change anyones outlook regarding the gold market or the currency market. Looking behind the curtain we see something more and something much larger and more telling than the mainstream financial analyst are reporting. Mr. Macleod breaks down the significance of the five different events, three currency devaluations and two gold announcements and the implications for Eurasia, the US and Europe. It would appear there is much more to the story than is being reported in most channels - See more at: https://thedailycoin.org/?p=40841#sthash.lBTQFzkD.dpuf

https://thedailycoin.org/?p=40841

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

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