Interesting Days

Thu, Aug 20, 2015 - 11:21am

It seems that the entire investing world has caught on to the "disinflation bias" theme as stocks are sagging and bonds and rallying. The metals have moved up smartly again this morning and are once again poised to achieve breakout closes. Will they? Can they??

In spite of the continued nonsensical "analysis" that Fed rates hikes are right around the corner, the economic news today was once again lousy. Check out these three headlines from ZH:

So, with Mother Fellen still so insistent that rates hikes are necessary, global markets are anticipating the attendant disinflation/deflation that rate hikes would bring. Eventually...perhaps by the conclusion of the next FOMC on September 17...the "markets" will finally realize just how entirely full of crap she and the rest of the world's central bankers are. Rate hikes aren't next, more easing is next! The only solution that central banks offer is liquidity/cash/money-printing/QE...whatever you want to call it. As this reality takes hold, expect a surging rally in all commodities as we head into Q4.

The only question can be found in just how far stuff falls before this realization takes hold. Crude to $35? Copper to $2.20 or even $2.00? The S&P to 1850?

All I know is that it is very encouraging to see the metals rebounding so consistently. As we've been discussing, these rebounds are not in a straight line UP and both metals are certainly encountering stiff resistance along the way...BUT...their resilience in the face of all this other selling is something to behold and respect.

Overnight, gold surged through $1130 and $1140, eclipsing the 50-day MA ($1139) along the way. It is now pressed up against stout, important and critical resistance near $1150. As we've stated repeatedly over the past two weeks, the key now is two consecutive closes back above this important old support level. IF GOLD CAN ACCOMPLISH THIS, the Sunday Night Massacre of late July can be viewed as a false breakdown and reversal. This would...for good reason...put some real fear into the hearts of the smarty-pant, momo-chasing shorts that as of last week were still short a near-record amount of paper contracts on the Comex. I have a high in the Dec15 of $1151 and a last of $1149. Let's see what the rest of the day brings.

Again, IF we can continue to move forward from here, a move through the red downtrend arrow on the charts below would foreshadow a move to $1180 and $1200. Still not much to get excited about but at least back to even on the year and more than $100 off of the July lows.

In silver, we're pretty much right back to where we were last Friday, prior to the deliberate, manipulative raid that drive price back down almost 90¢ in two days. Earlier today, the Sep15 silver hit a high of $15.56. Not surprisingly, I have a last back below $15.50 at $15.47. Silver is back above its 50-day, however, which currently can be found near $15.28.

And now, too, silver is at a crossroads. IF it can accomplish two consecutive closes back above $15.50 (though, as you can see on the chart below, a case could be made for $15.40 instead), the false breakdown and reversal would be confirmed and silver could set its sights on $16.20 and even $17.00. But first, it needs a solid surge through $15.50. Can it do it??

The HUI has officially closed the gap on the chart near 128, left over from the open om July 20. With a last of nearly 131, the index is UP a remarkable 25% from the lows just two weeks ago! Do you now see why we keep such close track of the RSI and MACD levels? They were both so extremely "oversold" that a bounce was inevitable and now we've seen it. Again, the question is, what happens next? First and foremost, the index needs to hold above 130. We DO NOT want to see it fall back today or tomorrow and close back below 128. This would embolden the share bears who would likely resume their naked shorting into the neutralized technicals. So, just as in gold and silver, let's watch very closely to see what happens next.

Lastly, on Monday's podcast, we discussed the disinflation bias building for this week and the idea that S&P 2105 might be ripe for another fall. Well here it is, Thursday, and I have a last of 2054. Fifty S&P points is pretty sweet for anyone gambling! Now the question becomes, will we soon see "V"-reversal #19 since last October? Last Wednesday, when we predicted the most recent "V" #18, the intraday low was 2052. Who knows? Maybe this time, it's straight into the toilet? Maybe not. Those willing to gamble on "V" #19 might want to hold their noses, lay some chips on the table, cross their fingers and look away.

Amazingly, I have lasts of precisely $1150 and $15.50 so I think I'll stop here as the timing couldn't be more perfect. Stay safe out there and good luck!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


· Aug 20, 2015 - 11:22am

Public post

I thought that, at this somewhat critical moment, it might be fun to make this a public post.

Old Howard · Aug 20, 2015 - 11:23am



Antony von Clearwell · Aug 20, 2015 - 11:25am

Lucky day!!

Furst..... :)

... Edit: sucond...... Still feel lucky :)

AIJ · Aug 20, 2015 - 11:25am

Yeah / Public Post

Troll city !

Should be fun.

captnb1 · Aug 20, 2015 - 11:28am

Glad to be in the top 10

But scared if China continues down and the rest of the world follows it is indeed a time to be cautious.

· Aug 20, 2015 - 11:29am

Latest update on Tsipras

To resign soon and elections are scheduled for Sunday the 20th of September...two days after the next FOMC.

Barfly · Aug 20, 2015 - 11:34am


Of a false breakdown will not be permitted. The banksters are still in control and have too much incentive not to allow it. The markets show no signs of overwhelming them any time soon. Gold and Silver will not be recognized for their real value until after the system collapses. Tick toc.

kenmasters675 · Aug 20, 2015 - 11:36am

silver can't seem to break

silver can't seem to break 15.52. There is a gap up and black candle stick, usually silver goes down after this.

Hmmm, wish it could break 15.52..

infometron · Aug 20, 2015 - 11:39am

Okay, I'm awake again

Au @ $1150 & Ag @ $15.50...

Should I get up now, or just go back to sleep...?

@Barfly, I see what your advice is... Zzzzz

(I'll wait until the alarm goes off)

lund175 · Aug 20, 2015 - 11:48am

The Daily Coin and Alasdair Macleod

This is a excellent talk all the way through but pay attention to about the 18-22 min mark. Really good stuff.

Since China has rolled out a series of currency devaluations and made two different public announcements regarding their official gold holdings it seemed like a perfect time to check in with Alasdair Macleod. On the surface the currency devaluations were not that significant. The announcement regarding their official gold holdings did not change anyones outlook regarding the gold market or the currency market. Looking behind the curtain we see something more and something much larger and more telling than the mainstream financial analyst are reporting. Mr. Macleod breaks down the significance of the five different events, three currency devaluations and two gold announcements and the implications for Eurasia, the US and Europe. It would appear there is much more to the story than is being reported in most channels - See more at:

· Aug 20, 2015 - 11:52am

What next?

From a larger perspective, I am torn between expecting these markets and the economy to collapse in September versus continuing to limp along as powered by lies, manipulations and deception shoveled out by the PTB through the mainstream media. These people have deep pockets and full control of what hte sheep know and understand.
Someday, things will collapse. But will the PTB manage that collapse slowly and transform the world economies into their desired shape? Or will things get out of hand with depression and war breaking out all over the world.

There is evidence to support both views and for me, the "balance scale of persuasion" has not tipped. We cannot know for sure what or when--but we all do "believe" something. Too often our "beliefs" are founded on limited evidence at best, and false evidence in many cases.

I do not wish to deal in "belief" about the future. I want to develop a view that is based in probabilities of certain directional change, a view that offers choices for action as events unfold--actions that are flexible and do not force my family into a corner. I am all ears to hear more evidence and probable arguments supporting either option (or other scenarios I have not considered).

We have invested in metals, still hold some real estate--though we are trying our best to sell out. We have stored food for a worst case scenario, and secured land where we can get serious about gardening. We are still learning to garden in our back yard., but this home has poor soil and harsh weather. We have a couple of options for moving out of town if rioting develops. but I plan to stay put as long as my employer stays solvent and compensates my services adequately.

There seems to be contrary "beliefs" this morning on whether we are breaking out or getting ready for a spanking. One minute I am tempted to put on a JNUG position, the next I am looking at JDST. I did tighten up my stop on SGDM (primary long-term position). It's probably best to trade nothing until a breakout is confirmed above these levels. I should simply stack and prep, but my 403b money has to be put somewhere...

silver66 · Aug 20, 2015 - 11:57am

Where the F%$k is Zman

why is he not here today.....hmmmmmm

Something to think about

Gold is not about getting wealthy, it is about not being poor


· Aug 20, 2015 - 11:58am

Hmmm. You think there might

Hmmm. You think there might be a little capping at $1150??

heathbr · Aug 20, 2015 - 12:07pm
SS121 · Aug 20, 2015 - 12:15pm

Dr Jerome - A post request Sir

From your earlier post (What next?)-

I want to develop a view that is based in probabilities of certain directional change, a view that offers choices for action as events unfold--actions that are flexible and do not force my family into a corner. I am all ears to hear more evidence and probable arguments...

The request is for you to please write a post about Silver ...with the only minor stipulation being that you always maintain the distinction between Physical Silver the monetary metal and fiat "silver" such as stocks, options, charts etc., ...however you prefer to maintain the distinction.

silver10sguy Doctor J · Aug 20, 2015 - 12:18pm

Well said Dr Jerome

Thank you for your thoughts which I agree with 100%. It is difficult to weigh how much of a collapse is coming and to what degree and shape our world will take. Perhaps Dr Jerome and others can help with one of my observations. We know that our perceptions and beliefs are being managed by the media and elites with lies and manipulation. It occurred to me just the other day that there is regular television programming on Dooms Day Prepping. Why would the powers that be want this type of television shows helping others to prepare for challenging times? My first thought was that doomsday prepping gets people into spending time, money, and efforts into storing food, water, weapons, and other survival needs. Prepping could reduce people's efforts to buy financial assets that get destroyed in a stock market collapse of massive proportions. Perhaps the elites think they can control the level of collapsing economies enough to buy up everything the middle class will lose. If everyone thinks we are headed to a Mad Max scenario the elites will scoop up everything. Anyway, that was one observation that gives me pause for thought. However, I am still buying up the guns, grub, and gold if the SHTF.

2c piece · Aug 20, 2015 - 12:40pm


You got your wish. $15.55 last.smiley

realitybiter · Aug 20, 2015 - 12:41pm


is never going to be recognized until all the horses are out of the barn. "things" - all things, have a commodity value and a monetary value. Again, mankind has used all sorts of things to store wealth. Homes, cinder blocks, gold, oil.... As the world realizes, slowly, then rapidly, that the ponzi is really a ponzi it will look at the very basics of life as money. In prison they use cigarettes. Banks? no. stocks of business? no. dollar bills? no. Today with the so called disinflation bias on, things are all up. Monetary value over economic commodity value. As Stockman says, we have deformed the economy. Healthcare and education are so overpriced it is a joke.....and "things" with great value are given away for nearly free. Junk silver is unavailable on the day when folks really are thinking about it. Better 10 years early than a second late. BTW, dia:gld Blew through the 200 dma.....very bullish for gold. 1151,2......and counting. follow through is everything.

Heart's Yours · Aug 20, 2015 - 12:47pm

philharmonics vs maples

JM Bullion has one ounce silver Austrian Philharmonics for $2.29 above spot in any quantity. Provident has one ounce silver Maples for $2.89 over in quantities of 500 (a 60 cent per ounce difference). Is a Maple worth 60 cents more per ounce to you than a Philharmonic? If so, why? I generally buy Maples or Eagles, but wonder if the Philharmonic might be a doable option as a government issued one ounce silver coin for less money (60 cents per ounce). Thoughts?

infometron · Aug 20, 2015 - 12:49pm

CNBC just recommended gold stocks as a 'safety trade'

Could the tide be turning...?

Edit: I can't call 'em CNBS when they are giving good advice

· Aug 20, 2015 - 12:50pm


Gold trying hard to break free above $1150. Can it end there when the Comex closes in 40 minutes??

Heart's Yours · Aug 20, 2015 - 1:00pm

Yamana (AUY)

Just a few weeks ago, Yamana Gold (AUY) traded at a new 52 week low of $1.72. Today it is at $2.41 (up over 5% today). From the 52 week low of $1.72 a few weeks ago to today's $2.41 is a 69 cent increase (a 40% increase)........that is a FORTY percent increase. I have virtually left the paper casino, other than some funds trapped in a retirement account. I know that catching the bottom is nearly impossible.........., but WOW.

lakedweller2 · Aug 20, 2015 - 1:01pm


Was your video of CNBS or someone singing. I got singing.

· Aug 20, 2015 - 1:08pm

Gold at HOD

I have a last of $1153.30 at 1:08 EDT 22 minutes to Comex close.

BarnacleBill · Aug 20, 2015 - 1:11pm

Will we see

the 2:15 Buy Express for the S&P leave the station on time today?

Orange · Aug 20, 2015 - 1:15pm

1;30 close

If they have their way it will be $1149.50

lakedweller2 · Aug 20, 2015 - 1:16pm

Am I The Only One?

Getting "script" interference and jerky slow down of scrolling and posting?

· Aug 20, 2015 - 1:20pm

A closer look at the Vs

I can count at least 10 since May!

However, 2045 needs to hold. A close below there today would maybe signal more downside instead. Emphasis on maybe as you never know how aggressively the PPT will act.

realitybiter · Aug 20, 2015 - 1:30pm

Good reading

The Democratic ticket will be Joe Biden-Elizabeth Warren. That’s what Mr. Obama wants. And what Mr. Obama wants, Mr. Obama gets.

This is “Game of Thrones.” And Mr. Obama is winning.

Maybe Hillary, orange jumpsuit and all, will become an advocate for the 4th amendment. Anyone who takes any time to think about dragnet NSA spying/data accumulation knows that spying is only about politics, not security. Get all the data and you can pick and choose winners.

Hillary will never get prison. She will get prison threats. Never prison. Prison will be the poker chip she cashes in to ride off into the bitter sunset of being a hasbeen-divorced-ballooning poorme dustbin dustbunny... her freedom will come at great personal cost and silence.

realitybiter · Aug 20, 2015 - 1:35pm

One of the V's is not going to happen

Simple history. At some point, the myriad of market participants overwhelm the riggers. I'd watch the dow to gold ratio for that answer. I think it may be developing now.

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Key Economic Events week of 12/10

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