Wrapping Up July Comex Silver Deliveries

32
Thu, Jul 30, 2015 - 11:24am

As we first reported two weeks ago, deliveries of July silver on the Comex were quite unusual. And the rest of the month only served to add to the spectacle.

Back on July 15, this initial post on July silver deliveries was made: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7000/another-comex-oddity

Though I urge you to review the entire article, the crux of the post was this:

MARCH 2015: 3,142 still open at expiration. 1,539 still open after FND. 2,583 total deliveries. 82.2% of the total from expiration.

MAY 2015: 3,371 still open at expiration. 1,727 still open after FND. 2,840 total deliveries. 84.2% of the total from expiration.

Again, do you see how this works? And let me assure you, this is how it has always worked for as long as I have followed the Comex delivery numbers.

OK. Now let's look at what is taking place here in July.

The total amount of July15 contracts still open at contract expiration on June 29 was 2,699.

The total amount of July15 contracts still open at the close on First Notice Day June 30 was 2,077.

Using history and experience as our guides, we should expect about 2,250 total deliveries over the course of this month. Ready for the surprise/anomaly?

So far in July, through last evening, the CME shows that a total of 3,267 total deliveries have been made. What's more, the CME also shows that there are still 117 contracts left open. If all of these remaining contracts stand for delivery...and provided no one else shows up wanting some immediate silver...the total number of deliveries this month will be 3,384.

Well, guess what? With the delivery month now completed, the total number of July silver deliveries actually came in at 3,637. Not only did the "117 contracts left open" stand for delivery, another 253 jumped the queue for immediate delivery, as well.

In the end, following the same format as used above, here's how the remarkable and unusual July deliveries finished out:

JULY 2015: 2,699 still open at expiration. 2,077 still open after FND. 3,637 total deliveries. 134.7% of the total from expiration.

Again, I can't overstate how unusual this is and how different it is from the norm. In a "normal" month where total deliveries came in at 85%, we would have seen about 2,300 total deliveries. Instead, we saw 3,637. Therefore, we're left to conclude that and additional 1,300 contracts were demanded for immediate delivery in July. This means that someone or something funded their account with 100% margin, jumped the "queue" and demanded immediate delivery of 6,500,000 ounces of silver. At prices ranging around $15/ounce, that's nearly $100,000,000.

Now, admittedly, 6.5MM ounces of silver isn't very much in the grand scheme of things. However, what is significant is the timing. Please allow me to remind you...For as long as I've monitored Comex deliveries, I've never seen this before. The total amount of deliveries in silver (and gold, for that matter) NEVER exceed the number still open when the contract goes off the board and moves into delivery. NEVER. And yet this month...July of 2015...when price is being stomped down yet anecdotal reports continue to stream in about supply issues...suddenly, the Comex delivers 135%??

So is this just another indication of tight (at least temporarily) supply? Yes, it would definitely seem so. However, does actual supply and demand matter? At this point, it's hard to say that it does when global silver supplies run a three-year deficit yet price falls by 60%. (https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/2015/07/28/upticks-in-silver-demand...) As long as the current, corrupt paper derivative pricing system remains in place, fundamentals will remain secondary to the whims of the HFT algos and the trading desks of Citi and JPMorgan.

On the bright side, only physical demand will/can break this fraudulent system. All of these anecdotal reports of extreme demand combine to chip away at the foundation of the scam. Let's hope it continues and that, one day, a true and fair price for silver will finally be realized...a "price" that actually reflects its true value.

TF

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  32 Comments

benque
Jul 30, 2015 - 12:40pm

That's our issue

Our server company rebooted the servers two nights ago and Fd up the time stamps. This is what led to the subscription issues that a handful of folks had.

I'll ask the Tech Team to fix the "recent" stuff, too, asap.

benque
Jul 30, 2015 - 12:56pm

Thanks Turd!!

Didn't know about the subscription issues. Those must have been a pain in the a$$ for all involved.

Glad to hear it is all in hand.

I guess its most important for me to know that my "damn firefox" isn't as screwed up as I'd thought it might be. Thanks again Turd!

Off topic; anyone got anything good to say about windows 10? I suppose I'll be "forced" to upgrade eventually, so curious to know what to expect.

joeblack
Jul 30, 2015 - 1:01pm

I don't think the Spec Shorts are desperate...

I think the Cartel is painting the chart exactly where they want it for gold contract expiration and end the month.

Look at the HUI today.

Jul 30, 2015 - 1:14pm

Only on the YTD page

Found here: https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf

This week, the largest stopper has been ABM Amro Customer, at 252 contracts.

For the month, issuance (delivery) has primarily come from the BBs...Barclays, HSBC. JPM and The Scoshe.

The biggest stopper was JPM House and JPM Customer totaling 1,965 contracts. The other three biggies were Mizuho Customer at 715 followed ABM and ADM at about 250 each. This is a substantial surge in delivery demand for all three.

Stackable
Jul 30, 2015 - 1:14pm

Who are the Culprits?

Who issued the July silver contracts and who stopped them? I know this data is reported daily, but not on the monthly summary. Is there any way to get the monthly totals broken out other than to look at each of the daily delivery reports? Can someone please do this so I don't have to ? I think we could learn a lot!

canary
Jul 30, 2015 - 1:33pm

Miners

Never buy them green....At least you will have a chance to be happy for one day.

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
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canary
Jul 30, 2015 - 1:57pm

Bill Gross has a sense of humor

Although he can be arrogant and difficult to work with (that's his own admission)...I like his latest humor: "Zombie corporations roam the real economy", and "have a little prayer" for the bulls.

Markedtofuture
Jul 30, 2015 - 3:17pm

Some Key Levels In Gold

Rick Ackerman

July 30, 2015

The bearish target at 1059.70 (see chart) seems clear and compelling to me — so much so as to beg the question of why the futures have been thrashing around for the last two weeks just above it.

Is this a bullish consolidation? A bearish distribution? Regardless, it is happening in an odd place relative to some clear Hidden Pivot support and resistance levels. My hunch is that the chop is distribution, and that we will see August Gold fall to at least 1059.70 before bulls can mount a decent rally. However, I am not married to this scenario and will be watching the lesser charts closely for the subtlest sign of an upward lurch out-of-nowhere. So far, any such effusion has been stymied precisely by the 1100.75 midpoint resistance shown in the small inset chart. However, were that resistance to be brushed aside on Thursday, I’d infer more upside over the very near term to at least 1113.80, the D target of the pattern shown. A move exceeding the ‘external’ peak at 1131.70 in the upper-left quadrant of the chart would be even more impressive, hinting of strength sufficient to carry into next week and beyond.

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/some-key-levels-gold

Mickey
Jul 30, 2015 - 3:42pm

who wants to buy gold here

who should buy gold here--well, most everybody should--but everybody is either waiting for a final low (which you see really well several months after it happens) or breakouts. At least the comex price discovery aspect, as we also know the physical is more in demand.

meanwhile where is the catalyst for a good economy--I see none.

jaw777
Jul 30, 2015 - 3:47pm

Makes Perfect Sense

So demand is way up and the price is down 10%. Or is it price is down 10% and demand is way up. Hmmm... Let's drive price down another 10% and see if we can get demand to fall off. Or better yet, in light of the higher demand let's cut price further. If you give something away for free people won't value or demand it.

I don't get it. I must be stupid. I'm going to go fondle my shiny round worthless paper weights.

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