Wrapping Up July Comex Silver Deliveries

Thu, Jul 30, 2015 - 11:24am

As we first reported two weeks ago, deliveries of July silver on the Comex were quite unusual. And the rest of the month only served to add to the spectacle.

Back on July 15, this initial post on July silver deliveries was made: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7000/another-comex-oddity

Though I urge you to review the entire article, the crux of the post was this:

MARCH 2015: 3,142 still open at expiration. 1,539 still open after FND. 2,583 total deliveries. 82.2% of the total from expiration.

MAY 2015: 3,371 still open at expiration. 1,727 still open after FND. 2,840 total deliveries. 84.2% of the total from expiration.

Again, do you see how this works? And let me assure you, this is how it has always worked for as long as I have followed the Comex delivery numbers.

OK. Now let's look at what is taking place here in July.

The total amount of July15 contracts still open at contract expiration on June 29 was 2,699.

The total amount of July15 contracts still open at the close on First Notice Day June 30 was 2,077.

Using history and experience as our guides, we should expect about 2,250 total deliveries over the course of this month. Ready for the surprise/anomaly?

So far in July, through last evening, the CME shows that a total of 3,267 total deliveries have been made. What's more, the CME also shows that there are still 117 contracts left open. If all of these remaining contracts stand for delivery...and provided no one else shows up wanting some immediate silver...the total number of deliveries this month will be 3,384.

Well, guess what? With the delivery month now completed, the total number of July silver deliveries actually came in at 3,637. Not only did the "117 contracts left open" stand for delivery, another 253 jumped the queue for immediate delivery, as well.

In the end, following the same format as used above, here's how the remarkable and unusual July deliveries finished out:

JULY 2015: 2,699 still open at expiration. 2,077 still open after FND. 3,637 total deliveries. 134.7% of the total from expiration.

Again, I can't overstate how unusual this is and how different it is from the norm. In a "normal" month where total deliveries came in at 85%, we would have seen about 2,300 total deliveries. Instead, we saw 3,637. Therefore, we're left to conclude that and additional 1,300 contracts were demanded for immediate delivery in July. This means that someone or something funded their account with 100% margin, jumped the "queue" and demanded immediate delivery of 6,500,000 ounces of silver. At prices ranging around $15/ounce, that's nearly $100,000,000.

Now, admittedly, 6.5MM ounces of silver isn't very much in the grand scheme of things. However, what is significant is the timing. Please allow me to remind you...For as long as I've monitored Comex deliveries, I've never seen this before. The total amount of deliveries in silver (and gold, for that matter) NEVER exceed the number still open when the contract goes off the board and moves into delivery. NEVER. And yet this month...July of 2015...when price is being stomped down yet anecdotal reports continue to stream in about supply issues...suddenly, the Comex delivers 135%??

So is this just another indication of tight (at least temporarily) supply? Yes, it would definitely seem so. However, does actual supply and demand matter? At this point, it's hard to say that it does when global silver supplies run a three-year deficit yet price falls by 60%. (https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/2015/07/28/upticks-in-silver-demand...) As long as the current, corrupt paper derivative pricing system remains in place, fundamentals will remain secondary to the whims of the HFT algos and the trading desks of Citi and JPMorgan.

On the bright side, only physical demand will/can break this fraudulent system. All of these anecdotal reports of extreme demand combine to chip away at the foundation of the scam. Let's hope it continues and that, one day, a true and fair price for silver will finally be realized...a "price" that actually reflects its true value.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


· Jul 30, 2015 - 11:25am

Public post

Since the initial post on July 15 was a "public post", I thought this one should be, as well.

AlienEyes · Jul 30, 2015 - 11:29am



· Jul 30, 2015 - 11:30am

Price still held below $14.84

As we've been monitoring all week, the Spec Shorts in silver are desperate to keep price below $14.84. You can see this on the chart below.

Why does $14.84 matter? That's the closing price from Friday, July 17. Recall that the massive raid on gold began with the fraudulent paper slam on Sunday evening, July 19. Silver moved down in sympathy but not nearly to the same extent as gold. It is now poised to move back above the $14.84 level and, when it does, ALL of the spec shorts added over the past nine trading sessions will be under water. The Spec shorts are desperate to keep this from happening...thus the cap at/near $14.84.

A weekly close tomorrow back above this important level would be very beneficial so watch closely the rest of this week.

cashonly · Jul 30, 2015 - 11:39am


Today's word is:


1 : unable to speak : lacking the power of speech

2: characterized by absence of speech: as a : felt or experienced but not expressed <touched her hand in mute sympathy> b : refusing to plead directly or stand trial <the prisoner stands mute>

3: remaining silent, undiscovered, or unrecognized

Pedro De Costa was muted for asking questions that were not on the approved list.

The price of gold and silver was muted in an effort to hide the true value of 'paper monies'.

The public remains mute as the politicians offer them no representation. 

Swineflogger · Jul 30, 2015 - 11:41am



lund175 · Jul 30, 2015 - 12:07pm

Denver Dave does not dissapoint

Quartro ? Kautro? f it number 4


Wow, is this a really good must read arcticle at the link below.

"When the intervention in the gold market fails, which it inevitably will as have all other market interventions in history, it will have the systemic affect of delivering a massive blow from a 2 x 4 on the back of the heads of the unsuspecting public in this country. In other words, be prepared for life to become very uncomfortable in every respect. My personal view is that will be the case even for those of us who have taken steps to prepare for this inevitability"


Dingo · Jul 30, 2015 - 12:10pm

It's like been sat on by a sumo wrestler.

Gold tries to wriggle out of a hold, and the big sumo just manoeuvres his arse cheeks to stifle any chance of escape. Amazing how excessive amounts of lard can overcome speed, strength, skill and knowledge in that sport. It's a bit like fiat vs gold. 

· Jul 30, 2015 - 12:15pm

Uncle Ted's mid-week commentary

This was just written yesterday but Ted decided to make it public today. Excellent stuff. Please read.


benque · Jul 30, 2015 - 12:33pm

Is it just me?

Or is anyone else seeing no updates to "Recent Comments" and "Recent Blog Posts"?

I havent seen anything new listed, for 4 days. Is this just my damn firefox, or is it TFMR?

kardnul · Jul 30, 2015 - 12:34pm

Always appreciate Alistairs perspective

China’s 1929 moment

By Alasdair Macleod

Posted 30 July 2015

Anyone with a nose for markets will tell you that the Chinese government's attempt to rescue the country's stock markets from collapse is far from succeeding.

Bubbles collapse, period; and government interventions don't stop them. Furthermore, we are beginning to see a crack widen in the foundations of China's capital markets that could end up undermining the whole economy.

Since the government owns the banking system, some of the knock-on effects will doubtless be concealed. A consequence for China is that domestic financial instability could threaten her current plans for the international development of her currency. Here the timing couldn't be worse, because in a few months the IMF is due to announce its decision about the inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR*. The odds were in favour of China succeeding in this quest, on the basis that China was deemed to have fulfilled the necessary conditions, and the IMF itself has been supportive.

A 1929-style collapse in China's stock markets would change this delicate balance. In mainstream macroeconomic theory, the only way China can resolve her excessive financial imbalances is to devalue the renminbi against other SDR currencies, hardly a good start for a new member. The IMF, probably egged on by the Americans, could be forced to defer its decision again, reviewing it in 2020.

This would be a bad outcome, given China has set her sights on joining the IMF's top table. There can be little doubt that the recent announcement increasing her gold reserves by only 600 tonnes was made in the context of her desire for the currency to be included in the SDR. If she is rejected, China could swing the emphasis more firmly towards gold, which she owns and mines in abundance.

If Plan A fails, it is time for Plan B. It is almost certain China has substantial undeclared holdings of physical bullion. The enabling regulations for China's gold accumulation programme go back to 1983, and the State will have acquired the bulk of its bullion before it permitted its own citizens to buy from 2002 onwards. Western analysts seem generally unaware that the bulk of China's acquisition of gold was in the late twentieth century, the last time the west was dishoarding huge quantities of bullion into a prolonged bear market, and she had massive capital inflows followed by trade surpluses to offset. This was the basis for my speculation last October that Government holdings could have grown to 20,000 tonnes by 2002, which explains why public ownership was then permitted.

The Chinese government almost certainly views gold as the ultimate money. The time is approaching for Plan B when a higher gold price would serve her interests better than membership of the SDR. It would reduce China's debt levels expressed in the ultimate money, without currency intervention. And it would also boost the personal wealth of her people. In short, it would be popular with ordinary people, at a time when the authorities' credibility is threatened by internal financial developments.

It must be tempting. The effect on western capital markets, having been drained of physical bullion and left with uncovered gold liabilities, could be very interesting. After all, the Chinese curse was for us to live in interesting times.


benque · Jul 30, 2015 - 12:40pm

That's our issue

Our server company rebooted the servers two nights ago and Fd up the time stamps. This is what led to the subscription issues that a handful of folks had.

I'll ask the Tech Team to fix the "recent" stuff, too, asap.

benque · Jul 30, 2015 - 12:56pm

Thanks Turd!!

Didn't know about the subscription issues. Those must have been a pain in the a$$ for all involved.

Glad to hear it is all in hand.

I guess its most important for me to know that my "damn firefox" isn't as screwed up as I'd thought it might be. Thanks again Turd!

Off topic; anyone got anything good to say about windows 10? I suppose I'll be "forced" to upgrade eventually, so curious to know what to expect.

joeblack · Jul 30, 2015 - 1:01pm

I don't think the Spec Shorts are desperate...

I think the Cartel is painting the chart exactly where they want it for gold contract expiration and end the month. 

Look at the HUI today.

· Jul 30, 2015 - 1:14pm

Only on the YTD page

Found here: https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf

This week, the largest stopper has been ABM Amro Customer, at 252 contracts.

For the month, issuance (delivery) has primarily come from the BBs...Barclays, HSBC. JPM and The Scoshe.

The biggest stopper was JPM House and JPM Customer totaling 1,965 contracts. The other three biggies were Mizuho Customer at 715 followed ABM and ADM at about 250 each. This is a substantial surge in delivery demand for all three.

Stackable · Jul 30, 2015 - 1:14pm

Who are the Culprits?

Who issued the July silver contracts and who stopped them? I know this data is reported daily, but not on the monthly summary. Is there any way to get the monthly totals broken out other than to look at each of the daily delivery reports? Can someone please do this so I don't have to smiley ? I think we could learn a lot!

canary · Jul 30, 2015 - 1:33pm


Never buy them green....At least you will have a chance to be happy for one day.

canary · Jul 30, 2015 - 1:57pm

Bill Gross has a sense of humor

Although he can be arrogant and difficult to work with (that's his own admission)...I like his latest humor: "Zombie corporations roam the real economy", and "have a little prayer" for the bulls.

Markedtofuture · Jul 30, 2015 - 3:17pm

Some Key Levels In Gold

Rick Ackerman

July 30, 2015

The bearish target at 1059.70 (see chart) seems clear and compelling to me — so much so as to beg the question of why the futures have been thrashing around for the last two weeks just above it.

Is this a bullish consolidation? A bearish distribution? Regardless, it is happening in an odd place relative to some clear Hidden Pivot support and resistance levels. My hunch is that the chop is distribution, and that we will see August Gold fall to at least 1059.70 before bulls can mount a decent rally. However, I am not married to this scenario and will be watching the lesser charts closely for the subtlest sign of an upward lurch out-of-nowhere. So far, any such effusion has been stymied precisely by the 1100.75 midpoint resistance shown in the small inset chart. However, were that resistance to be brushed aside on Thursday, I’d infer more upside over the very near term to at least 1113.80, the D target of the pattern shown. A move exceeding the ‘external’ peak at 1131.70 in the upper-left quadrant of the chart would be even more impressive, hinting of strength sufficient to carry into next week and beyond. 


Mickey · Jul 30, 2015 - 3:42pm

who wants to buy gold here

who should buy gold here--well, most everybody should--but everybody is either waiting for a final low (which you see really well several months after it happens) or breakouts. At least the comex price discovery aspect, as we also know the physical is more in demand.

meanwhile where is the catalyst for a good economy--I see none.

jaw777 · Jul 30, 2015 - 3:47pm

Makes Perfect Sense

So demand is way up and the price is down 10%. Or is it price is down 10% and demand is way up. Hmmm... Let's drive price down another 10% and see if we can get demand to fall off. Or better yet, in light of the higher demand let's cut price further. If you give something away for free people won't value or demand it.

I don't get it. I must be stupid. I'm going to go fondle my shiny round worthless paper weights.

AIJ · Jul 30, 2015 - 4:10pm

Silver is the treasure

At this AU / AG ratio. A steal. Trade in some AG for AU at a lower ratio. Much more bang for the buck. With gold where it is now silver is really worth $80 easy. If you saw something worth $80 and could buy at $15 what would you do? BUY WITH BOTH HANDS!!!!! And I bet you wouldn't complain about the price.

silver66 · Jul 30, 2015 - 4:13pm
goldcom · Jul 30, 2015 - 4:17pm

How many oz's is more important than fishing for the bottom

Just my opinion, but when the bottom of the charts appear there may be no physical to be had, let alone what the premium may be at that time. I'd like to catch the bottom and might try, but feel more comfortable already having ounces that I feel will salvage something for me in the new paradigm. 

edit: That is if I find it at the bottom of the waterway where that damn kayak flipped over.

tyberious · Jul 30, 2015 - 4:23pm

Midnight Raid on Gold Raises

Midnight Raid on Gold Raises New Concerns of Government Manipulation


Heart's Yours · Jul 30, 2015 - 4:25pm

Forget $100 silver.....what about $1000

Forget $100 silver.....what about $1000

This article posted on marketwatch advocates a trip back up to the old highs ($40 to $50) within 3 to 5 years and up to $100 an ounce in a decade with $1000 an ounce in 50 years. There is a really nice very long term Elliot wave chart linked at the bottom of the article. It seems to me that now is the opportunity of our lifetimes to add to our silver stacks so cheaply. If you don't posesss it, you don't own it.


tyberious · Jul 30, 2015 - 4:25pm
lakedweller2 · Jul 30, 2015 - 5:09pm

Price of things

I'd kind of like to see some upward movement before buying. Seems to still be wash, rinse and repeating its roll down the mountain.

climbthathill · Jul 31, 2015 - 1:06am

China... Think about it

The China stock market overheated when the many many Chinese middle class piled in and started buying... It was a bubble and it was going to burst.

But what was interesting was China's response to the sudden drop.

1. They forced the state-owned banks to underwrite the share values. I don't think it is the best solution, but it is better than the never-ending QE in the west. And it becomes kind of self-enforcing... the banks can't let the prices freefall too far but they also don't want to ramp the prices to be left holding the baby if the bubble bursts... On the other hand, I don't know how long this will be able to be maintained. Because it was a bubble there is still too much downward pressure...

2. They forced insiders not to sell. The CEO has to keep the stock he owns for now... If he can't cash out in the short term, his only solution to maintain his wealth is to generate real business value or accept a loss when he sells...

3. They went after those manipulators dropping massive shorts.

Could you imagine if our Western governments adopted 2 and 3? Imagine if our authorities actually set the law agencies on the gold and silver manipulators.

vonburpenstein · Jul 31, 2015 - 1:27pm

$1000 Silver?.....

.....Awesome, looks like my future grand kids will be RICH!

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