Wrapping Up July Comex Silver Deliveries

32
Thu, Jul 30, 2015 - 11:24am

As we first reported two weeks ago, deliveries of July silver on the Comex were quite unusual. And the rest of the month only served to add to the spectacle.

Back on July 15, this initial post on July silver deliveries was made: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7000/another-comex-oddity

Though I urge you to review the entire article, the crux of the post was this:

MARCH 2015: 3,142 still open at expiration. 1,539 still open after FND. 2,583 total deliveries. 82.2% of the total from expiration.

MAY 2015: 3,371 still open at expiration. 1,727 still open after FND. 2,840 total deliveries. 84.2% of the total from expiration.

Again, do you see how this works? And let me assure you, this is how it has always worked for as long as I have followed the Comex delivery numbers.

OK. Now let's look at what is taking place here in July.

The total amount of July15 contracts still open at contract expiration on June 29 was 2,699.

The total amount of July15 contracts still open at the close on First Notice Day June 30 was 2,077.

Using history and experience as our guides, we should expect about 2,250 total deliveries over the course of this month. Ready for the surprise/anomaly?

So far in July, through last evening, the CME shows that a total of 3,267 total deliveries have been made. What's more, the CME also shows that there are still 117 contracts left open. If all of these remaining contracts stand for delivery...and provided no one else shows up wanting some immediate silver...the total number of deliveries this month will be 3,384.

Well, guess what? With the delivery month now completed, the total number of July silver deliveries actually came in at 3,637. Not only did the "117 contracts left open" stand for delivery, another 253 jumped the queue for immediate delivery, as well.

In the end, following the same format as used above, here's how the remarkable and unusual July deliveries finished out:

JULY 2015: 2,699 still open at expiration. 2,077 still open after FND. 3,637 total deliveries. 134.7% of the total from expiration.

Again, I can't overstate how unusual this is and how different it is from the norm. In a "normal" month where total deliveries came in at 85%, we would have seen about 2,300 total deliveries. Instead, we saw 3,637. Therefore, we're left to conclude that and additional 1,300 contracts were demanded for immediate delivery in July. This means that someone or something funded their account with 100% margin, jumped the "queue" and demanded immediate delivery of 6,500,000 ounces of silver. At prices ranging around $15/ounce, that's nearly $100,000,000.

Now, admittedly, 6.5MM ounces of silver isn't very much in the grand scheme of things. However, what is significant is the timing. Please allow me to remind you...For as long as I've monitored Comex deliveries, I've never seen this before. The total amount of deliveries in silver (and gold, for that matter) NEVER exceed the number still open when the contract goes off the board and moves into delivery. NEVER. And yet this month...July of 2015...when price is being stomped down yet anecdotal reports continue to stream in about supply issues...suddenly, the Comex delivers 135%??

So is this just another indication of tight (at least temporarily) supply? Yes, it would definitely seem so. However, does actual supply and demand matter? At this point, it's hard to say that it does when global silver supplies run a three-year deficit yet price falls by 60%. (https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/2015/07/28/upticks-in-silver-demand...) As long as the current, corrupt paper derivative pricing system remains in place, fundamentals will remain secondary to the whims of the HFT algos and the trading desks of Citi and JPMorgan.

On the bright side, only physical demand will/can break this fraudulent system. All of these anecdotal reports of extreme demand combine to chip away at the foundation of the scam. Let's hope it continues and that, one day, a true and fair price for silver will finally be realized...a "price" that actually reflects its true value.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  32 Comments

Jul 30, 2015 - 11:25am

Public post

Since the initial post on July 15 was a "public post", I thought this one should be, as well.

AlienEyes
Jul 30, 2015 - 11:29am

ACE !

#1

Jul 30, 2015 - 11:30am

Price still held below $14.84

As we've been monitoring all week, the Spec Shorts in silver are desperate to keep price below $14.84. You can see this on the chart below.

Why does $14.84 matter? That's the closing price from Friday, July 17. Recall that the massive raid on gold began with the fraudulent paper slam on Sunday evening, July 19. Silver moved down in sympathy but not nearly to the same extent as gold. It is now poised to move back above the $14.84 level and, when it does, ALL of the spec shorts added over the past nine trading sessions will be under water. The Spec shorts are desperate to keep this from happening...thus the cap at/near $14.84.

A weekly close tomorrow back above this important level would be very beneficial so watch closely the rest of this week.

cashonly
Jul 30, 2015 - 11:39am

deuce

Today's word is:

MUTE

1 : unable to speak : lacking the power of speech

2: characterized by absence of speech: as a : felt or experienced but not expressed <touched her hand in mute sympathy> b : refusing to plead directly or stand trial <the prisoner stands mute>

3: remaining silent, undiscovered, or unrecognized

Pedro De Costa was muted for asking questions that were not on the approved list.

The price of gold and silver was muted in an effort to hide the true value of 'paper monies'.

The public remains mute as the politicians offer them no representation.

Swineflogger
Jul 30, 2015 - 11:41am

Tres

#3

lund175
Jul 30, 2015 - 12:07pm

Denver Dave does not dissapoint

Quartro ? Kautro? f it number 4

FOUR

Wow, is this a really good must read arcticle at the link below.

"When the intervention in the gold market fails, which it inevitably will as have all other market interventions in history, it will have the systemic affect of delivering a massive blow from a 2 x 4 on the back of the heads of the unsuspecting public in this country. In other words, be prepared for life to become very uncomfortable in every respect. My personal view is that will be the case even for those of us who have taken steps to prepare for this inevitability"

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-manipulation-its-much-bigger-than-you-think/

Dingo
Jul 30, 2015 - 12:10pm

It's like been sat on by a sumo wrestler.

Gold tries to wriggle out of a hold, and the big sumo just manoeuvres his arse cheeks to stifle any chance of escape. Amazing how excessive amounts of lard can overcome speed, strength, skill and knowledge in that sport. It's a bit like fiat vs gold.

Jul 30, 2015 - 12:15pm

Uncle Ted's mid-week commentary

This was just written yesterday but Ted decided to make it public today. Excellent stuff. Please read.

https://www.silverseek.com/commentary/price-takers-and-price-makers-14693

benque
Jul 30, 2015 - 12:33pm

Is it just me?

Or is anyone else seeing no updates to "Recent Comments" and "Recent Blog Posts"?

I havent seen anything new listed, for 4 days. Is this just my damn firefox, or is it TFMR?

kardnul
Jul 30, 2015 - 12:34pm

Always appreciate Alistairs perspective

China’s 1929 moment

By Alasdair Macleod

Posted 30 July 2015

Anyone with a nose for markets will tell you that the Chinese government's attempt to rescue the country's stock markets from collapse is far from succeeding.

Bubbles collapse, period; and government interventions don't stop them. Furthermore, we are beginning to see a crack widen in the foundations of China's capital markets that could end up undermining the whole economy.

Since the government owns the banking system, some of the knock-on effects will doubtless be concealed. A consequence for China is that domestic financial instability could threaten her current plans for the international development of her currency. Here the timing couldn't be worse, because in a few months the IMF is due to announce its decision about the inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR*. The odds were in favour of China succeeding in this quest, on the basis that China was deemed to have fulfilled the necessary conditions, and the IMF itself has been supportive.

A 1929-style collapse in China's stock markets would change this delicate balance. In mainstream macroeconomic theory, the only way China can resolve her excessive financial imbalances is to devalue the renminbi against other SDR currencies, hardly a good start for a new member. The IMF, probably egged on by the Americans, could be forced to defer its decision again, reviewing it in 2020.

This would be a bad outcome, given China has set her sights on joining the IMF's top table. There can be little doubt that the recent announcement increasing her gold reserves by only 600 tonnes was made in the context of her desire for the currency to be included in the SDR. If she is rejected, China could swing the emphasis more firmly towards gold, which she owns and mines in abundance.

If Plan A fails, it is time for Plan B. It is almost certain China has substantial undeclared holdings of physical bullion. The enabling regulations for China's gold accumulation programme go back to 1983, and the State will have acquired the bulk of its bullion before it permitted its own citizens to buy from 2002 onwards. Western analysts seem generally unaware that the bulk of China's acquisition of gold was in the late twentieth century, the last time the west was dishoarding huge quantities of bullion into a prolonged bear market, and she had massive capital inflows followed by trade surpluses to offset. This was the basis for my speculation last October that Government holdings could have grown to 20,000 tonnes by 2002, which explains why public ownership was then permitted.

The Chinese government almost certainly views gold as the ultimate money. The time is approaching for Plan B when a higher gold price would serve her interests better than membership of the SDR. It would reduce China's debt levels expressed in the ultimate money, without currency intervention. And it would also boost the personal wealth of her people. In short, it would be popular with ordinary people, at a time when the authorities' credibility is threatened by internal financial developments.

It must be tempting. The effect on western capital markets, having been drained of physical bullion and left with uncovered gold liabilities, could be very interesting. After all, the Chinese curse was for us to live in interesting times.

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis/chinas-1929-moment

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