Looking Forwards from 7 Months Back May Help Clarify the Fog

183
Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 9:18am

I posted this earlier today in the daily Setup For The Big Trade forum blog:

Here is my monthly Comex Gold chart as shown at yesterday's webinar, and showing long term trendlines shown here on setup at various times.

I have updated the monthly chart to include the early trading hours of this week, and the price dump in precious metals.

Note that this move occurred outside high volume Comex open hours, (but it may be sustained later today at these levels we await seeing that).

Note also that the first long term target has been now hit. Thus the minimum decline quantity is "in". The next level is clearly marked - also in highlighted blue - should the gold market make an attempt to get to it. But the time of day and hitting of "a" target are important events for Setup readers to note.

Long term consideration: phase one of the bear may now be complete. Short term consideration: a low is unconfirmed. Continuation could follow to the next long term target as long as time remains for the trend to do so. Of note: long term rising support remains unbroken.

So given the dismay that precious metal holders may be experiencing today in light of the price dump during the Asian session it might be a good idea to make public the Rhythm and Price video newsletter from seven months ago, namely 18th of November 2014.

I'll put it up on Youtube later today, but for readers of TFMR here is the links to the server download right now:

RNP #200 18 Nov 2014 mp4 Big picture gold trend parameters, weekly silver seasonal for end of year

(Later I might edit this entry to change the above link to my YT channel version of same, but it won't be uploaded there until tomorrow AM)

I hope that watching this video from last November will help to gain a better understanding of how bullish or bearish the gold market is at the moment while decline for July 2015 is at hand.

As it happens I do expect the long term (actually medium-long term in my world ...) rising blue support to be tested, but hey it's the markets so nobody knows anything about what might happen next! Only until you watch RNP#200 from last November that is .....

Hopefully you will find that the 14 minutes it takes will be worth your time and helps to gain some perspective. We all need a better perspective these days I believe.

Best of luck to all.

Bye

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice. The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.

About the Author

  183 Comments

silver66
Jul 20, 2015 - 9:23am

first

playing hookey and watching the open

thanks for post

Silver66

edit...aarrgghhh foiled by Fix

Pete
Jul 20, 2015 - 9:23am
Mr. Fix
Jul 20, 2015 - 9:27am

1st

You've got front row seats right here. Pay close attention as history unfolds.

G-Rod
Jul 20, 2015 - 9:49am

GDX has opened down > 5%

Looks like capitulation is the order of the day.

Time to buy silver.

G-Rod
Jul 20, 2015 - 9:52am

As the USD rises

Anything labeled "Commodity" is getting hammered.

Dr. P. Metals
Jul 20, 2015 - 9:55am

Step up right here and get your blue light special

Yes sir ree...get your JNUG special for only $0.99

Offer good only for limited time. Limit one per customer.

Edit: yes we know it will only be $0.50 next week but don't miss your chance today to buy some

NW VIEW
Jul 20, 2015 - 10:01am

SMALL BUSINESS BAIL-INS

We were able to spend some time out of town this weekend at our granddaughters basketball games. Oh what fun! I also was able to talk to a real estate broker/property management owner about what he sees in his business.

It was something like : "Real estate sales are not fun anymore. Yes we are making lots of fiat but at a great price. Every transaction is filled with buyer/seller problems and we can work for weeks/months on a transaction and have it blow up over just about anything. The renters these days have credit scores in the 500's and the less expensive units have the biggest problems. From morning to late evening, every day, nothing but problems to solve. I can see that it is time to change my future job and just mow lawns for a living".

I can also see in the home construction arena that the fun has left long ago in building quality homes. The local government agencies have learned how to control everything involved in building a home from the color of the house to the fire alarm systems that must be installed within the homes. They have raised the price of the building permits to the place where the city makes more than the builders.

Many (most) of the old timers who built locally have quit. The regulation, the taxes, the fees, and the continual inspections by the city and state, have driven the boomer builders into retirement and fishing. The entire subcontractor position has been forced to build for cash, as much as possible, in order to survive. The books are cooked if they even have any books. It is very difficult to find anyone who wants to work in the trades within the home construction business. If the Russians and those from south of the border left, the industry would die in a day. If all of these workers actually paid their taxes, along with all the others in other businesses (mom and pop stores and eating establishments) the tax revenue would explode. However, that will not happen as the government has forced these millions of workers into a mode of survival.

Our nation is in trouble and as long as the elected officials sit within their chambers, working to figure out what more they can tax and regulate, they will drive the workforce underground. How will this ever be fixed or will we just become worse than the problems in Athens? jmo Jim

brokerk22
Jul 20, 2015 - 10:07am

Clive Maund fans

His new post says gold to $850 and silver to sub $10.

-SilverIsMoney-
Jul 20, 2015 - 10:10am

Not the bottom...

Still no one wants to admit it to themselves but it's not the bottom. The warning signs for what is now happening were there and had been for awhile...

I am by no means an expert but if you just look at what I was saying this last month I did my best to warn people of what was coming and there have also been actual experts trying to tell people for a long time now that gold would have to hit the triple digits to resume it's bull... (namely Jim Rogers who said in 2012 Gold would have to hit $900 to $950 to go resume the bull and also Martin Armstrong who actually started calling for sub 1000 gold near the 2011 top).

June 29th:

I felt it necessary to post this all tonight because I really truly do believe we are almost at the bottom of this. Yes, thee fucking bottom we've been waiting for for fucking forever. The bottom that never came in 2012, 2013, or 2014 and that's absence has apparently destroyed marriages as well as portfolios alike. The bottom is actually close and in sight for the first time in nearly a decade. The one caveat to this is that we still need to see THEE washout down into the triple digits for Gold.

How can this be? How can I say the bottom is close and then tell you we need to shave off another $200-250? Because I strongly suspect, as I've been saying here for many months (almost a year now, good lord...), we will see one more final surge in the dollar that will collapse asset prices - otherwise known to Keynesians as deflation - the horror!. In July of 2008 the price of Gold peaked at $980 and subsequently collapsed to $690 by October.

By February of 2009 the price of Gold was through $1000 and by the end of the year it was at $1200.

My point being? The price collapsed 30% in 3 months and then rebounded back to the previous high in 6 months and then nearly doubled from the low in 12 months. When the metals move, they move, and we all know why - because the entire thing is a beach ball being held under water and when the price collapsed to $690 the wholesalers couldn't even keep up with demand and the premiums went nuts. They went through the physical floor because of the liquidity crisis that was created and it made things move violently in a very short period of time in both directions.

It's happened before and there's no reason it can't happen again so by me saying we're close to a bottom, while also saying we need to drop another few hundred dollars, I mean it in terms of time and not price.

The time is close and that's what I mean when i'm talking about the bottom...

www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/409866#comment-409866

July 1st:

Going back to the the idea all things, and markets, work in waves the best we can do is try to predict the general trend going forward. None of us could do anything about April of 2013 because the trend broke and that's just how the wave goes - the same will be true when it flips back up - no matter how hard the bad guys try they will be unable to prevent the trend when it comes back around in our favor.

As hard as it is for many to accept what has been done to these "markets," including gold, is all part of this back and forth process the waves give us. When I back off the day to day, and even the week to week, and I take a long look at the forest through the trees here is what I see:

Considering this chart, considering all the powers against gold and the power of PMs in general, considering the potential strength of the dollar from a euro collapse, and considering that oil - the #1 cost for all mining operations - is still weak and likely to also get crushed under the weight of a soaring dollar then it leads me to conclude that while the bottom is not far off in time it is still very far off in price. This chart SCREAMS to me that the final bottom has still not been found. I feel like at the very least we have to hit 50 where we found the 2010 low but I find more likely we end up somewhere in that box between 0 and 0.

I know that sounds ludicrous, and fundamentally it is, but in a world where Europeans are rushing into the dollar and crushing asset prices - causing a global depression and killing both the demand and price for oil - these numbers do not seem so farfetched.

But again, in this market, all that can be done is to predict the trend because there's too many interventions to attempt predicting price. The trend still seems obvious to me and whether gold bottoms at 0 or 50, or somewhere in the middle at 0, it's really irrelevant where it ends up so long as you don't need to sell what you currently have and understand that the end game is the price blowing through the roof under the weight of a systematic collapse.

I talked about it in my previous long post but i'll point it out on the graph now instead - look at July 2008 to February 2009 where the arrows are pointing - in 3 months the price was cut down nearly 33% and 3 months later it was back to July's high while the rest of the world's economies were in shambles and obviously you can see for yourselves what happened next.

I very much suspect the same exact thing to happen... another waterfall - similar to the one you see in the spring/summer of 2013 - happening in September or October that would take us right into that box and into the 900s (where I really think the bottom will be found) and if it's anything like the July 2008-February 2009 experience we will V ourselves right out of it like a rocket and I strongly suspect by the Fall of 2016 the POG will be well over 2k and likely closer to 00.

I think at the moment Silver is the more interesting watch because we're in the zone now which leads me to believe it will lead the charge again like it did the last time around:

Again, if the scenario I'm predicting plays out and the dollar surges then I think it would make sense that we could see silver fall a little more (12-13$) but because it's already in the zone I think the downside risk is probably less than gold's. Silver seemed to already have it's puke moment right as Oil started to collapse last July.

I certainly can't see what the future holds, only that the trend doesn't bode well for the short term, but the alternative to the V shaped surge we should see starting in 2016 is what happened in the late 80s and 1990s and I think I can speak for everyone when I say I can only hope that doesn't happen.

But what makes gold even more impossible to predict is that if that did happen and we started to see the price in the 400s and 500s we could still end up being the wealthiest people on the block if Oil was $10ish and the Dow was at a 1000ish. There's so many ways gold could end up a winner without the price having to do anything - purchasing power is still the key and always will be so even in predicting a downward trend Gold could still gain against everything else.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/410080#comment-410080

July 7th:

Good lord it's at $1020 and nearing sub $1000! Not sure I can ever recall a time gold was this much higher than platinum. It was at $1175 on 5-18.

Edit: Palladium has fallen from $800 to $640 in the same time frame. This is madness.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/410636#comment-410636

July 17th:

This has so far played out exactly how I predicted (Euro collapse surges USD and kills Gold). We will not see total capitulation until we've gotten into the 900s and retraced 50% from the top. I've sat here for 10months saying this and have advocated physical cash and my plan remains unchanged. Everything will be on sale this fall and the dollar will top - that will be the time to buy everything you can at fire sale prices, gold or otherwise.

Until then accept that the bottom is close in terms of time. We've waited through years of this shit only a few more months now before the wave flips back.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/411732#comment-411732

And simply out of respect I won't repost what I said to SS because I was a little frustrated and harsh but my point is I'M A POT FARMER IN DENVER WITH A MACBOOK AND I SAW IT COMING! For God's sake i'm not THAT smart as it relates to markets and I don't even have a background in finance like some of you do. However, if you accept that 1) All things work in waves so fundamentals do not matter and 2) Gold cannot rise in a deflationary collapse/dollar surge then you start to understand that there are real reasons why Gold is seriously declining and has been for over 4 years now! What we are seeing now has a lot to do with the fact the HUI is at 12 year lows, Barrick is at a 25 year low, the dollar is strong and getting stronger, the Fed continues to jawbone about raising rates this fall, the Chinese just announced a pathetic gold number, and gold is in a 4+ year downtrend that it has yet to flip out of. That's it, that's all.

In 6 months I believe this will all be over but until then we are going to crash and crash hard because when the market shit storm hits this Fall gold is going to get massacred with everything else and all you can do is either sell now (not recommended) or accept it for it is and hang on for the ride (recommended).

Gold WILL explode in 2016 and the bull market will resume. I believe we could see new highs next year but if we don't i'm all but certain we will see them at some point between 2016-18 as gold explodes like it did in 2009-2011.

2015=2008 multiplied by a pretty decent, unknown, factor. That being the case why should 2016-18 be any different than 2009-2011? The wave will persist and when it flips back no amount of short term manipulations by the powers that be will be able to stop it.

CPE
Jul 20, 2015 - 10:13am

@SIM

However, if you accept that 1) All things work in waves so fundamentals do not matter and 2) Gold cannot rise in a deflationary collapse/dollar surge then you start to understand that there are real reasons why Gold is seriously declining and has been for over 4 years now!

I don't accept that, so I won't be read the rest.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Forum Discussion

by tonym9, 2 hours 6 min ago
by sierra skier, 4 hours 39 min ago
by NW VIEW, 18 hours 6 min ago
by sierra skier, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:34pm
by tonym9, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:21pm
by NW VIEW, Jan 24, 2020 - 5:09pm