Jawboning Fed Goons

Tue, Jun 23, 2015 - 11:19am

The LIES, SPIN and MOPE are thick this morning as a random Fed Goon reports that "rates will soon be rising 1% per year if the economy continues to grow". Uh-huh. Just like the old adage, "if my aunt had nuts she'd be my uncle".

This kind of stuff just cracks me up...and the "market" gobbles it up as Gospel truth because it comes from the omnipotent Fed. As a reminder, the US currently has trillions in existing debt that is being serviced at the shortest maturities with the lowest possible rates so as to minimize the line item "interest on the national debt". If The Goon's forecast was to play out, the "interest on the national debt" would triple or more from around $400B/year to more than $1T/year.

ZH had a great headline summary of the Goonspeak. Let's take them one by one, shall we?

  • POWELL: TEST TO RAISE RATES COULD BE SATISFIED AS SOON AS SEPT. -- yep, I suppose that's true if God Himself comes down and starts shopping at Walmart
  • POWELL SAYS HIS FORECAST CALLS FOR RATE RISES IN SEPT., DEC. -- Attaboy. Good for him and his cute little forecast
  • POWELL: FED AND MARKETS ARE GETTING INTO CLOSER ALIGNMENT -- there's a stunner...the Fed IS the market
  • POWELL: DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE U.S. ECONOMY IS STRONG -- this shows either his abject stupidity or outright lies. Anyone with a brain knows that the Pig is only stronger due to ongoing, massive QE in Japan and Europe.
  • POWELL: THERE'S RISK UNEMPLOYMENT MAY FALL FASTER THAN FORECAST -- as more participants just give up and quit looking, the LFPR drops to fresh 40-year lows and drags the unemployment rate even lower. Classic Goon speak. Gosh how I despise these people.
  • POWELL SAYS HE DOESN'T SEE A BUILD-UP OF AN ASSET BUBBLE -- by staying in his ivory tower his entire life, he obviously failed to notice all of the past Fed-inflated bubbles
  • POWELL SAYS HE'S NOT PARTICULARLY TROUBLED BY EQUITY VALUATIONS -- nope, not Goon Powell. All looks fine to this clown. Record high valuations be damned

Not surprisingly, the headline-chasing HFT algos have picked up this mountain of BS and run with it. At one point earlier, the POSX was up nearly a point and a half and, of course, this is all due to "the strong US economy" according to Goon Powell. The Pig is still up a point as I type which means the euro is just getting smoked. See below:

The yen is down, too, but still within the range we've been watching:

And, of course, having the yen down explains why gold is down (yen in candles, gold in bars):

Meh, whatever. None of this affects my conviction that the next sharp move in the metals is UP, not down. Today's action only exacerbates the extreme nature of the Spec shorting, particularly in silver. Just yesterday, we saw another ATH in Comex silver open interest and there's no doubt in my mind that today will bring another. PLEASE keep in mind that the last time we "predicted" a short squeeze was April 15 and the actual squeezing didn't begin until April 24. Just remain patient. Have another look at the chart below. Whether you start the trendline on March 17 or 18, price is still near the line and very likely presenting an opportunity at this very second to anyone willing to gamble in The Casino or add some physical. 

And in gold, look at the complete inability to break price down below $1175-1180 over the past two months. I suspect more of the same here and...I CAN'T STRESS THIS STRONGLY ENOUGH...major declines DO NOT begin from a CoT structure like the one we have at present. Therefore carpe diem, mon frere.

Just a few links this morning. I found this at ZH in the "contributor" bar. Pretty interesting stuff with some rather intriguing charts: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-22/container-shipping-rates-china...

More terrible news of out Eastern Europe: https://news.yahoo.com/us-pre-position-heavy-weapons-along-natos-eastern...

And, as we've considered the audacity of the Fed Goonspeak today, this new post from Denver Dave is invaluable: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/new-home-sales-for-may-statistica...

Have a great day. More later,


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


4 oz · Jun 23, 2015 - 11:20am

A Bull Market~~~

Got lots of Johnny Reb in me.....Family history shows many on the confederate side, but there were several in Union Blue too.

Have really been tickled to learn so much family history in the last decade or so; Have the advent of the Internet to thank for that---and all the cousin-ality that has come with it!

Anyway.... IF I was a merchant...I'd be thinking the time is ripe to have lots of 'Stars & Bars' around...and marked up substantially...thinking a bull market for this baby is at the door step. 

gold slut · Jun 23, 2015 - 11:22am

Twice in a lifetime!


Edit: Story of my life - secondcrying

silver66 · Jun 23, 2015 - 11:23am


good article


Mr. Fix · Jun 23, 2015 - 11:30am


 Marchas45 left his spot wide open, what was I to do? smiley

AlexP23 · Jun 23, 2015 - 11:36am

My sincere thanks to you Craig

I just want to extend my sincere thanks to you Craig for your calm and reassuring synopsis of today's market events, it is a massive help in this world of misinformation - thank you my friend! 

Owtovit · Jun 23, 2015 - 11:46am


Maori for 6

matt_ · Jun 23, 2015 - 11:48am

Facebook worth more than Walmart


Not that I'd buy stock in Walmart, but these numbers are crazy.

The combined market cap of ALL 16 components of the HUI is $76.67 billion today. For the price of Facebook ($245 billion), you could buy the entire HUI 3 times over and still have cash left over.

-SilverIsMoney- · Jun 23, 2015 - 11:54am

I love..

How much stake people put in the COT when we know nearly all the COT data is fudged and by David Morgans own admission most of the positions are taken outside the reported structure the COT provides anyway.

The fact the correlations with the COT structure never seem to materialize leads me to further agree with Morgans position that it doesn't mean what it once did.

I have sat here for 9 months now warning people that the further the Euro drops the worse off gold will be in dollars. Now here we are the Euro and Gold are both down almost 2% this week... Coincidence? Not at all. Were long past the point of any part of reality mattering so if no one wants to do anything about it here we are...

Again... Lower Euro = Lower Gold in USD its really that simple folks and the longer this mess with Europe plays out the lower the POG is going to go. 

Accept it, embrace it! I haven't bought any metal in exactly a year now and I'm now sitting with dollars that have surged in value over the last 12 months and will likely continue to surge as Europe falls apart. When everything blows up this fall gold will finally bottom and that will be the time to go all in and stress yourself out about price. Everything until the general market washout is just more kabuki theatre, including the CoT.

Forgot About the price. Get out of the house and go do something.

lakedweller2 · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:01pm


Maybe I am wrong, but Facebook doesn't manufacture anything or produce anything. Don't they just sell ads? So if I have some kind of business and because of a declining economy, massive unemployment, no regulation of markets and a falling balance sheet; aren't I going to kick my ad on Facebook to the street knowing those people using it have no jobs or income to buy my product.

At least Walmart sells a bunch of Chinese junk and local produce. People will take their food stamps to Walmart, but they can't buy stuff off Facebook ads.

This just might be funny accounting principles. 

Swineflogger · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:04pm
AgAuMan · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:05pm

Hi Guys... I have some cheese to buy silver with

Hi Guys... I have some cheese to buy silver with

Is it going lower or should I pull the trigger now?

Current Price (BID) $15.78

jezfry · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:10pm

@ AgAuMan

My guess would be that if JP Morgan can get it lower, then it will go lower. Can they? Probably. 

-SilverIsMoney- · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:12pm

That's all fine

But I disagree with this entirely as it's not at all supported by the facts and data:

"The fact the correlations with the COT structure never seem to materialize"

SS121 · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:18pm


pick up phone

order silver

stack it

forget about it

keep watching

lakedweller2 · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:26pm


Silver pretty low now. Below the cost of production. Kind of relative. Buy some now and later buy more. Cost average at low levels.

Blankone · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:29pm


Balls, Balls, if I had 2 Id be King, said the Queen

Fred Hayek · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:33pm

@SIM there's a benefit to the euro mess taking time

The longer the mess in europe takes to play out the more people in europe there will be who wake up and realize that their authoritarian supranational government doesn't know its ass from its elbow and it is going to crush them financially.

Gold buying in Germany seems to have just taken off in the last several months. The longer this drags out the more people in europe there will be who realize that they have to try to protect themselves with gold and silver and the more such folks there are the more demand will become impossible to meet.

So, while I don't dispute most of what you say, I disagree that an extended "resolution" of the mess with Greece and other countries is an unalloyed negative for the price of gold and silver. 

tyberious · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:37pm

E. O. Wilson Will we solve

E. O. Wilson

Will we solve the crises of next hundred years? asked Krulwich. “Yes, if we are honest and smart,” said Wilson. “The real problem of humanity is the following: we have paleolithic emotions; medieval institutions; and god-like technology. And it is terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a point of crisis overall.” Until we understand ourselves, concluded the Pulitzer-prize winning author of On Human Nature, “until we answer those huge questions of philosophy that the philosophers abandoned a couple of generations ago—Where do we come from? Who are we? Where are we going?—rationally,” we’re on very thin ground.

  • Quoted in Harvard Magazine from a public discussion between Wilson and James Watson moderated by NPR correspondent Robert Krulwich, September 9, 2009.
SamSchlepps · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:38pm

Data getting harder to come by FWIW

I go to three sites to check monthly or regularly reported economic data and I am not an economist. I feel (as many do) that the facts are not the facts - so I go to the second level to see what fits. Just as numbers may have been propped up, they may be overestimated to the downside - engendering volatility seems to be a source of profits these days.

So now I have to go to four sites - as numbers just aren't reported - this is a long winded intro to todays redbook sales numbers - had to go overseas to get these monthly numbers.

ForexFactory stopped reporting them altogether some months ago; Econoday just put out the annual today (they were the biggest positive one); Forex Crunch did have them (with a climbing comment as growth MOM rose from -1.7 to a huge -1.6 - guess that would means sales are still down in total) and Saxobank lays out - my newest calendar check.


Danforth Coxwell · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:49pm

And there off....

cried the monkey, as he backed into the lawn mower!

Marchas45 · Jun 23, 2015 - 12:56pm

Lol 20th

Man It's Getting Better, Maybe I'll Be 21st Later On. Lol Sorry I'm Late But I Had A Closing and a Little Buying To Do, If You Know What I Mean. Keep Stacking.

Mickey · Jun 23, 2015 - 1:37pm


its non gaap adjustment used to be 50% of profits. Who needs that?

all it is is a momentum stock for leveraged automated hedge funds to trade daily

Mickey · Jun 23, 2015 - 1:39pm

silver futures

anybody notice how much trading there is on a daily basis. I think in 2 days there is 800 million ounces worth traded-which is more than annual production.

kardnul · Jun 23, 2015 - 1:53pm

Europe: Victim of Its Own Sanctions


The figures speak for themselves...

These figures by the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

Figures published by the EU are different , of course.

AIJ · Jun 23, 2015 - 2:00pm

Interesting that some of my exploration and Junior

PM stocks ( that have been dead for untold months )

are starting to turn green and showing some volume. 

Texas Sandman · Jun 23, 2015 - 2:45pm

Blow Pony

Doubling down here. Saying everything is fine. This is just a final wash out to shake out the weaklings. We still get the spike next week.


sbucks · Jun 23, 2015 - 2:47pm

My stack attack

Been stacking everytime the lows hit (although can't always get each bottom price ((only the few and lucky get in at the bottom)) . the key is to keep stacking! If Russia, China, India, etc have been buying and continue to buy (as planned) then only the few and the lucky will ever truely purchase at the bottom and imo, best plan of attack of stacking is to average at the lows. what difference does it make for a couple dollars difference in future profit when the PM's skyrocket in price.

Don't be greedy. KEEP STACKING

Safety Dan · Jun 23, 2015 - 2:49pm

Marc Faber: Central Banks

Marc Faber: Central Banks Will Blame Gold For The Financial Crisis

Marc Faber: Central Banks Will Blame Gold For The Financial Crisis
Mr. Fix · Jun 23, 2015 - 2:52pm

There is effectively no end in sight.... at least not yet

If Greece Defaults, Will The Fed (& US Taxpayers) Bailout Europe?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/23/2015 - 14:00

With The IMF (and Germany to a less extent) apparently peeing in the Greek Deal pool, perhaps it is worth considering what happens next if this "Greece is rescued" deal is not done. Who can save Greece? Who will pay The IMF? Why, that's simple, the good ol' American taxpayer thanks to The Fed's lifeline...

silver10sguy · Jun 23, 2015 - 2:56pm

Question for Fellow Turdites

Thank you in advance for giving me any feedback for the following question. It has been said that much of the shares traded everyday in the market are high frequency traders/computers. The mining shares at times go up a penny and down a penny all day long. Silvercorp Metals (SVM) is a good example. Is it possible while controlling the price action to actually accumulate shares gradually all day long so as not to attract any attention to building a large position? I keep wondering if the bullion banker scum bags will accumulate tons of mining shares in addition to physical bullion.

Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

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