This Is Going To Get Interesting

Mon, Jun 15, 2015 - 10:46am

Well, what a week ahead we have. Grexit fears and the FOMC will dominate but who knows what else might happen. Let's start the week by reviewing the charts.

Let's start with the Fed's bellwether...the S&P. It was just last Monday when we wondered if "V" bounce #12 was coming and, sure as heck, we only had to wait till Wednesday for our answer. Well, here we are again. The index is plunging and it desperately needs another concerted effort by The Fed and their minions to pop it back up. So, is "V" bounce #13 in the offing? You'd be crazy NOT to think so. However, this chart looks like tired and lousy. Anyone who doesn't believe that The Fed is responsible for propping it up should be crapping their drawers right about now and nervously looking for the exit signs.

Another flashing warning light for the "average" investor is the recent action in ole DrC. It puked out to a low back in January at about the same time the US economy was moving into a contracting Q1. Well now look at it! After failing to hold a breakout above 2.95 and move higher, copper is looking like a real dog. It broke down through 2.85 and 2.80 and now looks like 2.55-2.57 could be next, though someone mentioned in the previous thread that today's low was right at a 618 fib line. We'll see. Though falling copper is definitely NOT usually supportive of precious metal...particularly silver...when combined with the gnarly-looking S&P chart it sure makes you wonder just how "hawkish" Mother Fellen can be on Wednesday.

As you know, changes to the USDJPY are the key daily determinant to movements in paper gold and the events pending for later this week will likely go a long way toward determining the short-term direction of the yen. (However, even this is a bit of a joke given the relentless determination of Abe et al to devalue the yen to zero.) Last week we noted the false breakdown through 0.80 that blew out some stops and then quickly reversed. The resulting spike back higher helped gold catch a bid last week, too. Now we wait to see what Mother has in store for us on Wednesday. A decent bump in the yen could drive it back above 82 and you would really have the makings of a washout low...maybe the "head" of a reverse H&S. Again, just another item that will find some resolution at/near 2:00 pm on Wednesday.

And I think this is interesting...though, admittedly, I might be reaching just a bit. Again, you know by now how closely correlated movements between the yen and gold have been, especially since last August. Well, check the chart below. This could be a very good sign for later this week. Why? What I see here are three, consecutive mini stop-runs with all three coming at low liquidity periods, pre-Comex hours. Are these flushes the work of Cartel desks, used by them to inspire as much spec selling (Bank covering/buying) before Wednesday? It's important to note that the yen action over the flush periods is flat. Again, this could be a stretch but Turd sees what Turd sees and then passes on this information to you.

Finally, here are your gold and silver charts as we begin the week. Note that gold ($1182 last) is still within its $1180-1220 range and staying in the lower half into Wednesday, just as we expected. Very important to also note where I've drawn the trendline arrow in silver...connecting the previous breakout points of the past two squeezes.

OK, that's all for now. We'll recap with a full podcast review this afternoon.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 15, 2015 - 10:51am
Jun 15, 2015 - 10:51am
Nick Elway
Jun 15, 2015 - 10:54am

Happy Magna Carta

800 years ago today!

June 15 1215.

edit: Thurd! Whoopee!

Jun 15, 2015 - 10:55am
Jun 15, 2015 - 10:55am


Yea!!! 1st Again, Hear That? LMAO My Luck Must Be In, So Miners Here I Come, As Soon As My Fiat Transfers. Keep Stacking

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:00am

c'mon, tyberious

You've got to learn to speak Bongolese. The correct order is:

Uno, Dos, Tres, Catorce

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:08am

And this is a really interesting story to follow

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:16am

Miners crawling up

Call me crazy, but market down, gold up, miners up? How in the world did the criminals allow a natural trading day to occur?

The miners are looking good, despite the now constant suppression algo. Look how tight GDX and GDXJ are on a percentage basis. I am watching on yahoo! finance. Ridiculous rigging, but still a solid performance even with the ankle shackles on.

The last two trading days have seen the relentless suppression algo with a slow strangulation lower, tripping stop losses on the way to juice the direction. Criminals. The trading action is just disgusting. IF GDXJ was allowed to trade freely, the bull market would be on by now.

The capping algos might only stop once the 200 day SMA is crossed and volume buys in. Looking for one day with volume > 15 million. Suppression looking to be less effective. Finally!

4 oz
Jun 15, 2015 - 11:17am

More Hannah Ferguson~~~

Friend sent me this link over the weekend...and it made me think of Turd, knowing he likes Hannah--not to mention likely enjoys SI... so post with those thoughts in mind. (May not be appropriate for all audiences.)

Click here: Hannah Ferguson Intimates | Sports Illustrated Swimsuit 2015 - YouTube

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:19am

If Europe implodes...

Gold will get crushed in USD. Not hard to see this coming... Greece defaults/leaves/collapses whatever... the Euro tanks and the Dollar soars and commodities priced in dollars go way down. I've been saying this for months now and people like Raoul Paul are finally starting to get it. The writing is clearly on the wall.

We will get a tremendous wash out in Gold in dollars and finally get our buy-everything-you-can bottom.

Those of you in Europe will likely see your gold skyrocket in value while those of us in the US catch the final bottom. It's going to be incredibly bizarre but what about any of this hasn't been?

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:22am

Only if falling euro takes

Only if falling euro takes yen with it.

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:22am

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Jun 15, 2015 - 11:34am

Is this the start of the Silver short squeeze?

Silver just popped up to $16.20.

Is this the beginning of the silver short squeeze?

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:39am

silver short squeeze

when it happens you won't have to ask

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:41am


S&P 2082 and back below the 200 SMA @ 2088. That did not take long. Your move, PPT.

I am not so sure about the one last big was down in gold theory. Any sell off will bring volume back to the PM market. The only reason suppression of the paper PM market has been able to work is that there is no volume to fight it. As long as western investors stay out of the paper market, the bank diddling will continue. The sell off in gold during the last crisis in 2008 hit hard, but only because the sector had been rallying since 2002 and was well off the lows.

The PMs are the only sector that is not in a bubble; likely the only investment in the universe not massively overinflated.

The whole game has been to manage sentiment and keep people from buying PMs and PM stocks. To the fed and the banks, a buy for PMs is one less buy for the "markets" and the fed would fail with the levitation. The entire sector is only waiting for western investment volume to return. Volume might be starting to return right now!

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:50am


You greatly overestimate what you think may happen in these markets if Greece leaves the Euro. The scenario you laid out does not guarantee the movements you estimate by a long shot!!!!

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:57am


The floor has been established. As Turd has said, the physical demand is high now, if the price was any lower the bullion banks will officially be wiped out. I can not see a situation where we go lower than say 1100.00, but what does it matter, you have a down side potential of maybe 200.00 but an upside that is exponential.

Jun 15, 2015 - 11:57am
AGAU brokerk22
Jun 15, 2015 - 12:03pm


IMHO aint gonna happen!

They will overthrow the govt first, there is no way these " elites" will lose money or trigger a default on derivatives here, as soon as they see the pot is emptying past the point where they can steal their interest back, its false flag, coup d'etat time,! its worked well enough in the past?!! Especially given the monstrous derivatives that would collapse making Greek Debt look like chump change from what I have read?

Jun 15, 2015 - 12:12pm

Homebuilder Optimism / Zerohedge

I love this remark below the article...( Sarc Alert for those living in the DC area )

"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. ... Karl Rove

Putin is an insane "mass-murderer"

Gold is a barbarous relic

The Fed is working for your interests

The Nobel Prize Winner is protecting you by droning women and children and wedding parties

Jobless rate in USA is 5.5% and inflation is only 0.8%

How do you like that reality generated by your government and your mass media?

Jun 15, 2015 - 12:13pm
Jun 15, 2015 - 12:14pm

So, Silver is up 2%

And it looks like we're running into significant capping. Yes, it's a sudden move, but I doubt that this is tens of thousands of shorts being covered. Price may levitate, but it might be very controlled. Liquidating so many shorts would cause a spike on the order of a dollar or more.

4 oz
Jun 15, 2015 - 12:26pm

RE: So, Silver is up 2%'s Monday. Seems PM's always up on Mondays...

Jun 15, 2015 - 12:38pm

I'm afraid you are all missing the point of this 2% pop

Grexit? Russia vying? China spying? Nay!

This pop in the metals was clearly brought to you by the ultra-bullish omen of Charlie /Marchias snagging the coveted First! If he can pull this off every day through Friday, we are looking at a 10% rip, people. Make it happen!

Jun 15, 2015 - 12:47pm

Remember any grexit

And 110 metric tons gets used to short the gold market!!

gamble gamble

Jun 15, 2015 - 12:47pm

You said it Pining, I feel it

You said it Pining, I feel it in my blood and it's not thinned down by the whiskey. A wee birdie is whispering in my ear (Right Craig) that it's getting bloody well close to the end. SO........ Keep Stacking

Danforth Coxwell
Jun 15, 2015 - 12:57pm


Greece will take their gold with them. That is what scares the TPTB!!!

Jun 15, 2015 - 1:00pm

updated tweets on Snowden issue

Jun 15, 2015 - 1:01pm

re Greece: here's something else you should look at

Jun 15, 2015 - 1:02pm

And it's now Noon CDT...

and still no EMP in Texas. 12 hours to go.


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