Re-sess-shun

60
Wed, May 13, 2015 - 10:53am

As we discussed last week...

re·ces·sion
rəˈseSH(ə)n/
noun
1. a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

But, wait a second, I thought CNBS told me that everything was great. So great that The Fed stands ready to raise rates, which they only do when they need the economy to cool off. What's this about a recession?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-13/us-recession-according-these-7...

Well, first it was the negative GDP print for Q1 and now it appears Q2 is headed that way as well. After today's utterly dismal retail sales and import prices numbers...well, as they say, "ball don't lie". Check these charts from ZH and NotJimCramer:

And into this recession the Fed is going to raise the Fed Funds rate in June or September?? Rrrrriiiggghhhtttt....

And the "market" is beginning to figure this out, apparently. The Pig is getting crushed and, conversely, the euro AND the yen are rallying today. As I type, gold is at its high of the day near $1214 and silver is $17.15. Pretty cool and definitely NOT sub $1150 and sub $15...as some "analysts" were shrieking just two weeks ago.

Furthermore, this isn't just another short squeeze. No doubt there are a lot of new longs being added today, too, on the back of the terrible macro data. Remember that bullish CoT from last Friday? Well, there you go.

Truly, though, this is all about that Pig. Just yesterday, I reminded you that any weekly close sub-94 would clear the decks for a sustained drop, perhaps as low as 90. Well, we may be about to find out if that's true because I've got a last of 93.72.

And lest you think that gold has suddenly been unshackled today and is finally trading on physical fundamentals...check the chart below and think again. As mentioned above, for once the diving Pig is causing yen strength, not just euro strength.

But, whatever. We'll take what we can get, at this stage. And check the charts below. Gold has broken through the downtrend from early April and is poised again to challenge the top side of the general $1180-1220 range. Can it break through this time? Given how lousy the macro data is AND given that The Pig could fall all the way to 90 AND given how bullish the CoT structure was a week ago...it might. It should! For now, just watch $1220 very closely. A close above there would be a significant step forward and don't forget that the 200-day MA is nearby, too, at $1222.

As you might expect, silver is stout today, too, and well above its downtrend line. This is nice. However, the key levels are between $17.20 and $17.40 and the 200-day for the front month July contract is $17.23. Only IF silver can best all of these levels and close above them sometime can we get excited about a possible extension toward $17.70 and then $18+.

I just checked prices and I see that, as I've typed, gold rallied to $1218 before backing off. Not surprisingly, $1218 marked an almost exact 2% move on the day...so you know what happened next...we're back to $1213. Whatever, I'll take it regardless. Let's just see what the rest of the week brings. The continuation of the lousy data should keep The Pig falling and gold rallying.

Please be sure to check back later for a full podcast summary and review.

TF

www.tfmetalsreport.com/freetrial

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  60 Comments

ned braden · May 13, 2015 - 10:54am

Hi Charlie!

I'll take...1st

Chiron · May 13, 2015 - 10:55am

Top 5?

Nice.

lakedweller2 · May 13, 2015 - 11:00am

Top 2%

Like gold...only need 97+ more posts

waxybilldupp · May 13, 2015 - 11:05am

Dollar, yen, euro ...

Strength? Weakness? Dancing in the moonlight ... up, down and around. Absolutely meaningless in the long run. Just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Selling dollars today to buy yen and euros. How can any sane person want to own any of them? Consider their sources. Are any of the issuers solvent? Not even close. It's all the biggest scam ever. And that, my fellow Turdites, is why we stack and go boating. But, what the hell, you already know that.

Ok, Choir, pick up again at bar 24. A one and two and ......

wax off

Oh, one thing more ... I was first when I started this little note, but I'm sure that spot and several others are history now.

tyberious · May 13, 2015 - 11:10am
tyberious · May 13, 2015 - 11:12am

Rot Of Empire: Moody’s

Rot Of Empire: Moody’s Downgrades Chicago To Junk Bond Status

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/rot-of-empire-moodys-downgrades-c...

wildstylechef · May 13, 2015 - 11:13am

Fourth is me

ya and what a simply lovely day gone is the 50, 100 and the 200 on both silver and gold.

Gone is the US dollar bellow 94 on its way to 90 and 72 AND

The US Is In Recession According To These 7 Charts

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/13/2015 10:25 -0400

inShare2

The evidence continues to mount...

"Most since Lehman" has become the new meme for macro-economic data in the US as day after day brings another lacklustre superlative to be dismissed with some excuse by the cognoscenti of sell-side economists...

 Of course, that is aside from anything related to aggregate jobs that is spewed by the government's official ministries of truth... (do not look at this chart)

* * *

So here are seven charts that scream "recession" is here...

Retail Sales are weak - extremely weak. Retail Sales have not dropped this much YoY outside of a recession...

And if Retail Sales are weak, then Wholesalers are seeing sales plunge at a pace not seen outside of recession...

Which means Factory Orders are collapsing at a pace only seen in recession...

And Durable Goods New Orders are negative YoY once again - strongly indicative of a recessionary environment...

Which is not going to improve anytime soon since inventories have not been this high relative to sales outside of a recession

In fact, the last time durable goods orders fell this much, The Fed launched QE3 - indicating clearly why they desperately want to raise rates imminently... in order to have some non-ZIRP/NIRP ammo when the next recession hits.

* * *

And just in case you figured that if domestic prosperity won't goose the economy, Chinese and Japanese stimulus means the rest of the world will save us... nope!! Export growth is now negative... as seen in the last 2 recessions.

And deflationary pressures (Import Prices ex-fuel) are washing upon America's shores at a pace not seen outside of a recession...

* * *

But apart from that, given that US equities are at record highs, everything must be great in the US economy...

Wait a minute.

Marchas45 · May 13, 2015 - 11:14am

You Got It Ned

Couldn't have went to a better person. @#%$&* Lmao

Hammer · May 13, 2015 - 11:18am

I guess that means that the

I guess that means that the US now has a credibility issue ? That would not look great.......

ned braden Marchas45 · May 13, 2015 - 11:20am

Charlie, I do hope those

real estate deals stay together for ya. Been there myself in sales years ago wink

· May 13, 2015 - 11:20am
· May 13, 2015 - 11:24am

"Meaningless noise"

Pretty much what we said back on Friday...just stated much more eloquently: https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/52247/

cashonly · May 13, 2015 - 11:43am

recession

probably have been since late last year. They just can't fiddle the numbers anymore. Once the layoff's start in earnest a negative feedback loop could develop and this thing could go down quick.

matt_ · May 13, 2015 - 11:55am

Turd: How is it that your embed video preview works?

For a lot of recent posts, all I see is a link that says "devicesupport" when someone puts in a youtube video. Then, I don't know what the video will be until I click on it and start playing it. Like this:

Rick Astley - Never Gonna Give You Up (Video)

It only started recently, so either TFMR or Youtube has changed something.

matt_ · May 13, 2015 - 11:57am

I'm sure it's our problem

That just started about a week ago. Once they get some time, I'll have the Tech Team look into it.

CPE · May 13, 2015 - 11:57am

Re: Turd: How is it that your embed video preview works?

I am experiencing the exact same situation...

CPE · May 13, 2015 - 11:59am

Also Turd

There's an "Embed" feature on that voting site. Just voted for you, why not embed the voter pic in the post at the top?

tbryan · May 13, 2015 - 12:01pm

Voted and those are cool but.....

Turd,

You do a great job of communicating the reality of the G&S markets in plain English..... something I can understand...... so absolutely I voted for you!

Also those look cool and could actually be necessary in a barter situation when you need to pay with a half oz..... just break one off! But I still have an eye on those stacker chips. Now those are really cool! I am saving to buy a few...... and play checkers.......

· May 13, 2015 - 12:02pm

To the point of this post...

· May 13, 2015 - 12:09pm

checking other sites

Wow! The HATE is thick when the metals rally.


Watch The Party in Comedy | View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com

lakedweller2 · May 13, 2015 - 12:16pm

TF Got My Vote

Let's vote for Turd and all the other great input on this site.

Orange · May 13, 2015 - 12:19pm

Just voted

clicked the clock to 54

Winder · May 13, 2015 - 12:29pm

Device support

I don't think it's just TF Metals. Seen it on other websites like Liberty Mill as well. YouTube problem?

canary · May 13, 2015 - 12:31pm

Bloomberg humor....

After Retail Sales print: "There'll be some head scratching that the economy is not coming back".

Dandruff shampoo may help.

Keg · May 13, 2015 - 12:42pm

Voting

I was 2nd this morning. Since I voted early can I also vote often?

Image result for vote early vote often

· May 13, 2015 - 12:47pm

LOD for The Pig

And gold is pressing up against the 2% cap again. Nice to see.

Chiron · May 13, 2015 - 1:15pm

Lord Douche Bag!

I love that skit. Pure genius. That was from the days of old when comedians were funny, audiences had a sense of humor, liberals were laughed at and not taken seriously, you bought products and said products worked past the warranty, and people actually worked for a living instead of voting for a paycheck. Ah, those were the days...

His Turdness,

Just had a thought. I listen to a lot of pod casts on the itunes store. They get heavily searched, and the pod cast craze is relatively young and growing. A suggestion might be to make a biweekly or weekly summary of the metals market and post it on itunes. I do not think that it would lessen the value of your service here, and it might actually increase the interest in metals among the masses. Nothing like adding in buyers to the market to stop the bankers. I think that if more people were able to hear great information about the importance of PM's, things might improve. Perhaps a little deconstruction of the mass misinformation campaign. I think it might even make your web service more valuable to us here in Turdistan.

If there is one thing I have learned by the observance of crowds: 

"If you are not at the table, you are going to find yourself on the menu."

If PM aficionados can press an agenda to defeat the "tin foil hat wearing" reputation we seem to get characterized as, maybe all of our investments would see better days. Your presentation of truth mixed with humor might be the magic remedy! 

Thanks for all that you do. 

SteveW · May 13, 2015 - 1:22pm

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Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales