Baffled With (BLS)BS

Fri, May 8, 2015 - 11:46am

The great W.C. Fields is credited with saying: "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit". No doubt had Mr. Fields been born 100 years later, he'd have made an excellent anchor on CNBS or Bloomberg.

There's really no sense in getting into the weeds again regarding the charade and methodology of the BLSBS. I've written about it countless times and, by now, you're just as much an "expert" in reading through the BS as I am. So, if you want to dissect the folly of another "jobs report", I'll simply suggest you click these links:

Let's, instead, focus upon the absurdity of it all.

We've been set up..."conditioned", if you treat the BLSBS as some sort of be-all-end-all statistic. Today, I'd like to ask "why?".

First of all, the monthly "jobs report" is nothing but statistical guesswork and gobbledygook. As DenverDave notes above, out of the 223,000 jobs that were allegedly added in April, 213,000 came from the FantasyLand birth-death model. This means that 96% of the "jobs" are simply assumed to have been created because, on average, that's how many have been created in Aprils past. Additionally, it's May 8. This means that we're supposed to put all faith into a report based upon the supposedly complete data from a calendar month that just concluded a week ago! If we're to take this stuff seriously, shouldn't more credence be put upon the revision to March's number? At least the BLS has had some time to think and reconsider that one. (Oh. Oops. The March number was revised lower from an already disastrous 126,000 to a miserable 85,000.)

Then consider this... Why is this number so ridiculously over-emphasized? It's just one data point. What about durable goods? How about the trade deficit and GDP numbers? And how about all of the other "macro" data that has been plummeting? Why aren't those numbers emphasized as strongly as the "jobs report"? And here's where I'm going...

Because it's all part of the market/mind control and MOPE. The central planners realize that if you can get everyone to focus on just one number, you have a much greater ability to spin and control the message. Taken on balance, the state of the American economy is awful...but the central planners can't have that narrative. Instead, it must always seem that things are right on the cusp of breakout improvement. So, how do you manage that perception? By getting everyone...the media, the market players, the HFT focus ALL of their attention on just this one number. By making everything else seem insignificant and focusing solely on the "jobs picture", the other data points are marginalized and largely ignored.

Think about it. By traditional GDP estimates, the US economy shrank in Q1. SHRANK! And it is very likely to contract again in Q2. At the same time, over 20% of all global sovereign debt is now trading at a negative yield. However, as of this morning, we're all supposed to believe that The Fed is now just weeks away from raising interest rates based upon the "robust jobs report" of earlier today. WHAT? THAT'S NONSENSE! However, when you control the media and the message by getting everyone to only focus on one, easily-manipulated data point, you can make the world believe just about anything you'd like.

So, here we are on a Friday morning in the land of the (supposedly) free and (formerly) brave. To listen to the financial news, it's all sunshine and lollipops. Goldilocks says buy more stocks and all will be well. Knock yourself out. As for me, I will continue to remain situationally aware and alert, regardless of the pathetic musings of Kernen and LIESman.

As we transition from this week into next, we'll continue to watch these building formations on the short-term charts. There's not much momentum to drive things higher but the CoT structure is such that there's not a lot of room to jam things lower, either. So, here we sit:

One thing that will be interesting to watch next week is the POSX. As you know, we'd been looking for a drop toward 95 and the index has now found support right in the area between 94 and 95. What will happen next? A rebound toward 96.50 or a further breakdown and fall toward 92? We'll see...

And just a few words on two other items of note. One is lumber. We mentioned this a few weeks back and several, logical comments were made about foreign competition providing excess supply, etc. Now, I don't know much about the lumber market so maybe those are the only reasons for prices being down. Regardless, though, it's hard to look at these charts and conclude that the US economy is booming. Why? Housing growth should demand lots of lumber and high demand should mean rising prices. Hmmm. And on the 25-year chart on the right, notice the broken trendline from the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis lows. Sort of like all the other data points, this doesn't fit the narrative of "rebounding economy" so please be sure to focus instead upon the BLSBS.

The other item is copper...ole DrC. Somewhat strangely and counter-intuitively, given all of the continued disinflation bias, copper has been on quite a tear since early February, rallying over 20%. Earlier this week, it ran into some long-term resistance lines and the area between 2.95 and 3.00 certainly looks sticky to me, too...BUT...we must start to watch copper closely again because IF it can continue higher in the weeks ahead, it will no doubt begin to put significant pressure on 41,000+ spec silver shorts. First, here's a look at DrC on its own:

But gaze upon these three charts of copper overlaid with silver and notice the clear correlation:

OK, I think I'll stop here and get this posted. There will be more later, though, with a full podcast summary and review so please be sure to check back this afternoon or over the weekend. I leave you for now with one more quote from Mr. Fields:

“Remember, a dead fish can float downstream, but it takes a live one to swim upstream.”

Hang in there and enjoy your Friday,


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 8, 2015 - 11:49am




May 8, 2015 - 11:49am


no way

arch stanton
May 8, 2015 - 11:50am

could it be


take that charlie and ag 66

May 8, 2015 - 11:54am

I Just Love

4th arch stanton so you can go ahead and keep 1st but Keep Stacking

May 8, 2015 - 11:57am


This isn't complicated.

May 8, 2015 - 11:57am

I need to be in good shape...

....before "the whole thing" starts reflecting some fundamentals. Taking my doggies for a long walk.

TF Metals fan
May 8, 2015 - 12:01pm

top 10?

I might still make it to the top10; have just been reading the observations from Turd. One flew over the cuckoos nest comes in mind.

Fortunately the weather is becoming really nice, I made some nice food and my wife is still a pleasure to be with. And for the rest I will allow time to do its work. Because you cannot defy gravity for ever.

Dear reader: thank you for reading this and be part of this community in which I feel at home.

PS: miners are still fairly good so I am reasonably happy.

May 8, 2015 - 12:06pm

Wait a second...

"Everything else is UP today. Why isn't gold?"

May 8, 2015 - 12:34pm

Great post, Craig!

What else can be said? You've nailed it so well!

No news is good news, and bad news is ignored.

Drink the kool-aid and dance to the music!

Happy weekend everyone...

May 8, 2015 - 12:35pm
May 8, 2015 - 1:00pm

And now we know

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s top business advisor on Friday claimed climate change was a ruse encouraged by the United Nations to create a new authoritarian world order under its control.

Maurice Newman, chairman of the Prime Minister’s Business Advisory Council, said the real agenda was “concentrated political authority. Global warming is the hook”.

In a column for The Australian newspaper to coincide with a visit by UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, he added that the world had been “subjected to extravagance from climate catastrophists for close to 50 years”.

A. Tad Askew
May 8, 2015 - 1:29pm

European Stocks...

...Having their 2nd best day in 4 years. Surprising election results given as the reason...

My biggest disappointment regarding the elections is the resignation of Nigel Farage. He "got it" and was good for a couple of classic sound bites every month. His oration and common sense will be missed.

And now, back to your regularly scheduled program...


May 8, 2015 - 1:47pm
May 8, 2015 - 2:02pm

China's weak data last night.

 Exports unexpectedly fell in April by 6.2% from last year. Imports also fell 16.1% from a year earlier. The slowdown in China continues... and the global economy.

silver66 arch stanton
May 8, 2015 - 2:10pm

@ arch stanton

yesyes for you !!!

I was forced against my will to tee off at 8:15 this morning. If I had not done that I would have got first...I am sure of it


P.S. added a $100 1/4 oz Canadian maple to stack last evening and 6 oz of AG

May 8, 2015 - 2:12pm

UK elections

I agree with you A Tad Askew.

Is seems to me that the UK has voted for war.

May 8, 2015 - 2:14pm


Darn, 17th. Agree re: Farage.

Texas Sandman
May 8, 2015 - 2:14pm

Yup, sunshine & lollypops. Got the message.

And more silver eagles.

Stay thirsty for physical, my friends.

Goldencross A. Tad Askew
May 8, 2015 - 2:21pm

Dear Tad, He told the press

Dear Tad,

He told the press that after the summer he will consider his comeback when the party is going the elect a new leader.

'Ill Be Back!"

J.P. Cubish
May 8, 2015 - 2:27pm


When I got involved they told me the market (Mr. Market) would be irrational, and it would be my opportunity to make profit. They also mentioned that the market could stay irrational longer than I could stay solvent, soI stayed debt free. Debt free is sucker free.

May 8, 2015 - 2:35pm

To All: Please Continue Transitioning Out Of The System

One of the hardest things about being in Silver and Gold, for some, is in their trying to maintain a system-centric worldview. ...trying to rationalize their position in physical Silver and Gold according to system principles of investments, insurance, timing, and other "industry" (system) practices.

If you're impatient, you're not there yet.

If you're frustrated that the system's deceptive devices still exist, you're not there yet.

If you think Silver and Gold are going to ultimately be a great position "within" the system's arena of devices, you're not there yet.

If you're transition process has stopped and built a comfortable hybrid world-view, you're not there yet.

Keep shedding those system ways and get moving again.

Only Silver and Gold are Money

Please Continue Transitioning Out Of The System

No whining, no complaining, no looking back, quit feeling the need to explain yourself to every damn body. Just Keep Moving. You're doing GOOD! Thank You!

May 8, 2015 - 2:36pm

Hi Craig, I don't know if

Hi Craig, I don't know if you're planning to have Andrew Maguire back on any time soon, but thought everyone may wish to see his latest article on KWN -

Thanks for all your great work, it's very much appreciated.


May 8, 2015 - 3:18pm


Obama, the savior for hope and change, is in Portland Oregon to meet with Nike and celebrate the TPP agreement. This agreement is wanted by Nike because it will remove the onerous 10% duty they pay on shoes which I read cost $5 to make....and will also give them tremendous legal flexibility....I read that the average Vietnamese worker makes 50 cents an hour in a nike sub con factory. Given that the per capita gap is $2 an hour, I have to think that this great factory job is equivalent to working for $6.50 an hour in the US with no picking up guys in front of Home Depot for yard work...good luck at $6.50. Whether you agree or disagree that this is right is not the issue. Obama campaigned as the "anti-corporate" guy....the protector of the people....and he has turned out to be more republican than the most despised republicans.... this is funny: TPP? You know I think the problem for Nike is not the itsy bitsy duty it has to pay...the problem is that they sell their shoes in dollars, pay for labor in other currencies and at some point all that cheap labor and foreign trade agreements are not going to mean squat because the red dragon is going to reveal how worthless the currency is that these deals are based in.... China is not any part of TPP....this is basically a sweatshop looks to me... Obama seems like a pliable crack ho....he'll do whatever you want for principles at all...democrats should be dying enmasse, choking on their own vomit, yet they still cheer....crazy, drunk on some stupid idea that slavery is freedom and poverty is wealth.

May 8, 2015 - 3:36pm


Thats funny because this morning I called and email my Congressman, Jim McDermott, and Senators (who are corporate shills) Cantwell and Murry, voicing my displeasure against this crap!

BTW, Nike sell 5$ shoes for $50.00 to retailers. Nice return.

May 8, 2015 - 3:37pm

Climate change a UN ruse

I guess they didn't notify the mountain pine beetle that has killed 50% of BC's pine since the early 90's. Fortunately the US market no longer needs this lumber!

May 8, 2015 - 3:45pm


As you can tell I live in PNW and I agree that the climate is changing but that is what the Earth does. Sorry about the pines.

May 8, 2015 - 3:46pm

Very bullish gold cot report

Very bullish gold cot report out :)

Preparing My Position Blythesshrink
May 8, 2015 - 3:53pm

Very Bullish Gold COT

Totally, I was not expecting that shift in mix.

Preparing My Position
May 8, 2015 - 4:02pm

More on Gold COT FUTURES

The Swaps reduced their net short position by 20,000 contracts! MM picked all of that up and then some, reducing their net long position by 28,000 contracts.

realitybiter tyberious
May 8, 2015 - 4:07pm

$50 nikes??

Try $100-200

Think about that. If silver miners could only sell their silver for a similar $300-600 retail.....

They would just need spend $50 an ounce marketing the stuff, get some athletic endorsements, get every professional to wear the brand....


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