Monday Charts

72
Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 1:40pm

Yawn. That pretty well sums up the day, doesn't it. Actually, after the Sunday Night Massacre and the ensuing, margin-induced madness, days like today are somewhat refreshing. Of course, we did get a margin reduction in gold last week but, as we all know by now, it meant very little.

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-lowers-gold-margins-hikes-corn-hogs

Onto today. As boring as it was, there still are some very interesting things to watch. Significant technical events may occur over the next two weeks so you need to keep paying attention. First up, there's gold. The Forces of Evil and Darkness again showed up today as gold approached 1550. It seems they wanted everyone to know that they are paying attention, too, and not yet distracted by the bikinis and thongs of Long Island beaches.

I'll get to silver in a moment but I think we first need to look at crude. Did you notice last week when Trader Dan mentioned that "silver will underperform gold until we break from the deflationist mindset and move back toward inflation"? As you know, the key driver of general inflation is energy prices. Therefore, according to Dan's reasoning, we'll need to see a turnaround and reversal of the downtrend in crude before we can get excited about silver. The charts below give us every reason to expect solid support for crude near and just below $90. IF it can reverse there and then, with the help of a short-covering rally, head back above $96, enough strength should spill over into the PM pits to surge them higher.

So, then, here is silver. First and foremost, if it's going anywhere, it has to clear 36.25-50 first. IF it can pull that off, it should be able to make a charge toward $38 and the major resistance that resides there.

So, anyway, that's it for now. If you're looking for something to watch overnight, keep your eye on the crude market. The low today was 91.51. A re-test of that level followed by a rally could be the catalyst to drive silver toward that $38 level and inspire gold traders to attack the Death Star once more.

Have a great afternoon/evening. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  72 Comments

Eric Original
Jun 20, 2011 - 6:41pm

Getting around the new site

I had some posts about this a few days ago that were well received. I'll summarize here basically what I do.

1) In the upper left hand corner, click on "My Account" or your name, then click on your "History" tab. This will show you every blog post and forum thread that you have ever posted a comment to. Listed in order of which have had the most recent activity. It will tell you if there are any new posts and if you click on that it will take you directly to the new posts.

2) Along the right hand side there is the Recent Comments box. I peek at that periodically to see who is posting, but also click the "more" button at the bottom. This will show you every ​blog and Forum post as it rolls in. This is the nearest thing we have to the old blog, but it runs most recent at the top instead of at the bottom. If you absolutely must have them the other way around, then you'll have to go back a few pages ( thingy at the bottom) and then go forward from there. If you see something on the Recent Comment page that you want to comment on, or to hat tip it, click on the subject line and it will take you to the source blog or Forum thread for the post.

3) Also, anytime I am in the Forums I'll peek at the right side of the page at the New Forum Topics and Active Forum Topics boxes. Sometimes you'll find neat stuff there that you might have missed otherwise. If you find an interesting Forum thread, go ahead and post a comment, even if it is just to say "Hi, Nice Thread!" and then forever more you will be alerted whenever there is a new post there when you follow step 1) above.

Hope this helps.

Capt. Willard
Jun 20, 2011 - 7:26pm

July Silver Calls

Good evening, Turdistan!

First off, I appreciate the new site. It'll take some time to get familiar with the forums, but the subforums by pailin and level headed are a definite benefit of this new set up and a number of essential subforums will emerge and I'm grateful they are.

Silver and Gold?

I'm in a silver position, which has to pass 38 before July 14th to break even. Todays trading gave me some confidence. I hope for Oil to rallye and take Silver along with it to close over 36 at the end of this week and to make headway as a consequence of shaky news out of Greece and/or QE³.

I expect a bounce off from 36 and a regrouping around 35.30, followed by a consolidation and an attempt to pass 36.

If Crude fails to rallye into mid 90ies and Gold stalls below 1548-1550, I'll have a decision to make. There's time still, though.

Eric Original
Jun 20, 2011 - 7:42pm
Charles S. Hamlin
Jun 20, 2011 - 7:57pm

So, now The Wall Street Journal is lobbying for money printing

From an article in yesterday's Wall Street Journal -

"...Inflation cures a debt hangover. It may be the only known cure. The reason? The value of the debt stays the same in dollars, but there are more and more dollars to go around and pay the debt off. Naturally, each dollar is worth less. It is a default by stealth."

https://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304451504576394002810246540.html?KEYWORDS=What+This+Country+Needs+Is+a+Good+5+CPI

The FED allowing the MSM to continue the conditioning program...

Turdle GG Charles S. Hamlin
Jun 20, 2011 - 8:09pm

WSJ lobbying for money printing

This is just as described by Jim Rickards in his most recent KWN interview. It is Bernanke's current policy. Rickards thinks the hardest part will be keeping inflation from getting out of control.

Geraldine Gramp
Jun 20, 2011 - 8:16pm

Disheartening

I have begun to realize that it is not important that I teach or share my information with others; but rather that I learn from the process.

When I move to share this information, I learn on many levels. The problem you are having is one of seeing yourself as lacking due to the fact that others are not picking up on the clues as rapidly and competently as you feel is needed.

What you really want to do is learn from the experience.

Do the best you can in laying out the info and then kick back and watch as they process it. Try to figure out where they are coming from as they work through the effort to thoroughly understand and then accept or reject what you presented.

I have been very actively pitching the idea of a civilizational collapse since early 2000 and the amount I have learned about human behavior has been worth much more than what little ground I have gained in imparting economic information to others.

Dealing with other humans as they learn a new way of life is priceless.

Always remember that new ideas must go through the same three stages with each person to become part of their belief system.

I always told my daughter from the time we could relate that you must believe that every ones' truth is absolute. Their truth is their truth and should be believed by you to be true ... for them.

You do not adopt their truth as sacrosanct until you prove it for yourself.

You are being given a gift just by virtue of having been heard by them. They will use the information in a way that suits them best at the proper time.

I think they call it due diligence here.

Your response will bring me to a higher level of understanding relative to this topic as you broaden my horizons immensely.

I, too, am an old sage.

Turdle GG
Jun 20, 2011 - 8:28pm

WSJ lobbying for money printing

Rickards interview:

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/4_Jim_Rickards.html

Reinhart's paper on "Financial Repression" (aka inflating your way out of massive government debt, as an alternative to default or growing your way out of the debt):

https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/res2/pdf/crbs.pdf

Abstract: "Historically, periods of high indebtedness have been associated with a rising incidence of default or restructuring of public and private debts. A subtle type of debt restructuring takes the form of “financial repression.” Financial repression includes directed lending to government by captive domestic audiences (such as pension funds), explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital movements, and (generally) a tighter connection between government and banks. In the heavily regulated financial markets of the Bretton Woods system, several restrictions facilitated a sharp and rapid reduction in public debt/GDP ratios from the late 1940s to the 1970s. Low nominal interest rates help reduce debt servicing costs while a high incidence of negative real interest rates liquidates or erodes the real value of government debt. Thus, financial repression is most successful in liquidating debts when accompanied by a steady dose of inflation. Inflation need not take market participants entirely by surprise and, in effect, it need not be very high (by historic standards). For the advanced economies in our sample, real interest rates were negative roughly ½ of the time during 1945-1980. For the United States and the United Kingdom our estimates of the annual liquidation of debt via negative real interest rates amounted on average from 3 to 4 percent of GDP a year. For Australia and Italy, which recorded higher inflation rates, the liquidation effect was larger (around 5 percent per annum). We describe some of the regulatory measures and policy actions that characterized the heyday of the financial repression era."
Eric Original
Jun 20, 2011 - 8:57pm

How about that Great Panther!

Up 30% from it's low on 6/8. This used to be the stock everyone loved to hate.

It's not all gloom and doom here in miner land.

Turdle GG
Jun 20, 2011 - 8:57pm

Silver $36

How much longer are they going to be able to cap it here?

ginger
Jun 20, 2011 - 9:01pm

NW VIEW

If I could have given you a hundred hat tips ...I would have.

FriedEggs
Jun 20, 2011 - 9:36pm

Yawn = ok

Fellow Turdites...

As soon as i seen the word 'yawn' - my thought was, 'that's ok.' Like Turd said, 'somewhat refreshing' (especially after shitty May, etc...)

'Yawn' is better then 'oh snap' or 'we just got bent over'- especially on Sunday/Monday...

Summer is just about to begin...

lock and load:)

Fried(e)

Dave T
Jun 20, 2011 - 9:46pm

OTC Trading - July 15

Patrick Heller is one of my favorite columnists. His in depth analysis always seems to be well researched. Here’s an article on what he had to say about the July 15th OTC trading deadline.

https://news.coinupdate.com/you-will-still-be-able-to-buy-and-sell-physical-precious-metals-after-july-15/

Agophillic
Jun 20, 2011 - 10:01pm

Censoring?

Turd,

I was wondering if you were going to censor yourself more now that you have this new site. While I know that you aren't as "liberal" with your colorful expletives as the dude on silvergoldsilver, you do use it appropriately. Not to mention the fact that "shit" is the same thing as "sh*t" only I say it to myself because I know what it means...and everybody else does too.

Other than that...I love sideways days like today. The more silver consolidates around $35 the longer I can buy undervalued physical! Just like as long as crude stays in the low $90's, the longer I fill up my 2 gas guzzling people movers without going broke! Doldrums? Nah...just happy where we are!

ginger
Jun 20, 2011 - 10:07pm

So.. Agophillic....

...You want Turd to cuss?

I'm just as happy if he doesn't actually. LOL.

Cussn' =

;)

murphy
Jun 20, 2011 - 10:43pm

Stansbury = June issue

For anyone who is interested. Although he seems consumed with selling multiple investment newsletters, much of his observations are worthwhile. In an effort to sell more, he approved for the June issue to be disseminated for free.

disclosure I am a subscriber but DYODD.

https://www.stansberryresearch.com/secure/psi/issues/issues_11.asp

WeekendAtBernankes Gramp
Jun 20, 2011 - 11:26pm

Ripples on the water

That, my friend, is progress. Hat tip. If one person ​told​ you he talked about it with his wife, you can bet two more are thinking about it. Rods and cones.

zopilote SilverWealth
Jun 20, 2011 - 11:50pm

Pre-Market trading SLV and GLD

SilverWealth: " ...and this is why I don't just dive in a low and define it as a low since a second and last leg down can come to shakeout futures traders, it's that last leg that demoralizes them imo."

Thanks, SilverWealth, The additional detail is much appreciated - two weeks ago I thought I had a 'low' on AGQ and barely got out alive as it waterfalled down 5 minutes later before I had even thought about stops - so now I'm learning by listening to those who are more successful than I. I'll be watching tomorrow AM and if I find you on this blog I'll be asking questions.

buenas noches

Phantom
Jun 21, 2011 - 12:25am

Holy Shit Batman

If this doesn't move the PM markets this week, I don't know what will.

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/indian-gold-and-silver-imports-surge-s...

Phantom

Nick Elway
Jun 21, 2011 - 12:28am

WSJ (Murdoch) lobbying for money printing

Watching Soros(champion of QE2) and Murdoch go after each other is like watching Pro wrestling.

It appears to me their whole dance is choreographed by their TPTB employer..

ed
Jun 21, 2011 - 1:51am

encouraged

Encouraged by Gold trading in a tight range.

Rather having it bumping up against resistance than being smashed to the downside.

Overcoming 1550 only a matter of time.

Currently long a Sep/Jul 1550 Call Calendar spread which has been quite profitable. Looking to roll to a Dec/Aug 1600 over the next few days. Also long a Sep/ Jul 38 Call Calendar spread which has also made money.

With the greatest respect to other posters, I think that Indian Gold demand is a secondary factor in the equation. Put it this way, if demand was light / nonexistant I would not sell. Primary driver is the end of the great Keyensian experiement.

ed
Jun 21, 2011 - 1:51am

encouraged

Encouraged by Gold trading in a tight range.

Rather having it bumping up against resistance than being smashed to the downside.

Overcoming 1550 only a matter of time.

Currently long a Sep/Jul 1550 Call Calendar spread which has been quite profitable. Looking to roll to a Dec/Aug 1600 over the next few days. Also long a Sep/ Jul 38 Call Calendar spread which has also made money.

With the greatest respect to other posters, I think that Indian Gold demand is a secondary factor in the equation. Put it this way, if demand was light / nonexistant I would not sell. Primary driver is the end of the great Keyensian experiement.

Turdle GG
Jun 21, 2011 - 2:02am

Silver $36 again

Whatever happenend to the BoS?

terri5125
Jun 21, 2011 - 2:06am

PLEASE ADMIN, PLEASE TURD- this is IMPORTANT

There are a TON OF US here who want the ability to read all the comments as they come through. WE MISS DEEPLY the ability to just stay on one page and see things from trading to health to prepping all in one place. It was a very tight community because of it. We could all participate in everyones thoughts versus trying to find people here and only participating in one conversation. We could be in one place and see a tip we would not normally have seen or thought about because maybe we aren't interested in that one topic but that one thought really made a difference.

PLEASE can you at least try to put the recent comments tab rolling in the opposite direction of what you have now. Right now if some of us want to just read through all the comments it is truly difficult because it puts most recent comments at top versus at the bottom like on blogspot. Sometimes "old tech" has some value and many many of us liked that one aspect of the old site. We could just scroll down continuously and read comments as they came in-- TONS OF US LOVED THAT!!

Please all those who agree please give a hat tip ...maybe they will understand that this is important.

THANKS AGAIN TURD!

Turdle GG
Jun 21, 2011 - 2:21am

Well said terri5125

While this new site is very good, the one thing missing is the ability to easily track all comments being made. I don't want to go here and there looking for things, like the proverbial needle in the haystack.

We should keep that separateness for those who like it, but a sequential listing of all comments is what I would use most - it's quicker and means less chance of missing something important/thought provoking/novel.

TheGoodDoctor
Jun 21, 2011 - 3:01am

@TurdleGG and terri5125 I

@TurdleGG and terri5125

I actually stopped reading the messages on the old board because things got out of control with the number of posts in one thread. To go through and dissect every message was no longer fun with 500 posts in a thread. I imagined this is what Sybil had going on her head with all of her personalities.

That is what the message board is for. It's topical. The moderator will be running new forums by Turd for his approval. There is a search function on this board that is easier to use. I don't even think there was one on the old board. I remember trying to find the Turd's post about Turdisms and I actually had to look for it in each months posts. Heck I didn't even register for the old board because he announced this new one, though I did read it religiously.

Advice: Participate in the community however you want. If you don't want to use the message boards then don't. These threads for Turd's posts will now focus on just that for the most part. The post itself. Rather than a cacophony of 500 topical posts, off topic posts and troll fights. That being said, you are severely missing out on the richness of the message boards.

Thank you Turd for the new playground. It's organized and I can find topical information quickly. I can contribute to the community when I have time and if I miss something I can always go back to a thread I posted on and read what others say. And that is quick to find with my own historical view of threads that I have posted in.

Eric the original has a post that documents how to quickly find things on the new board. If I want to learn about canned bacon I'll go to the "Canned Bacon" discussion in the preparedness forum. :p I don't mean to piss in anyone's cornflakes but things change and I am saying they changed for the better. What Turd and the web site folks did here is infinitely better than the old site (no disrespect Turd!) But what he created has turned into an important thing here folks and it has taken on a life of its own. It's for the greater good of all of us. Oh, and don't forget the emoticons people, don't forget the emoticons!

Colonel Angus
Jun 21, 2011 - 4:23am

Silver

I see others are wanting a drop back below $35. Who is with me in wanting it to drop to $25? I would be in for several thousand ounces there. We all know where things are going longer term, but the Bernank just might be able to crash the markets so that he can get his QE(n) passed. The key will be if and when QE2 ends without QE3. It will spell disaster, cats and dogs sleeping together, Greece falling off the edge of the ocean, Atlantis reappearing...or so they say. In any case, it will mean a sharp downturn in the markets, and people will have to sell their real money in order to cover their fiat margins. I'm actively hoping for this despite my vaults of silver and gold. One more last chance before the prices really take off, before the death of the PO$. Just give me one more good sale on silver, and I promise I'll be good for the rest of the year. Or at least for a day or two.

boatman
Jun 21, 2011 - 7:27am

QE-X is why we hold

QE-X is why we hold PM's....its going to happen......in the ponzi fiat-credit game it is the only thing keeping them from facing reality....it been written in stone since '71 at least....

if you are not going to face reality u HAVE to well print.....we know what they will do....the only thing THEY CAN DO.

https://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/4_Chris_Whalen.html

Shill
Jun 21, 2011 - 8:03am
BlackHawk
Jun 21, 2011 - 8:12am

Forex News @ 8:09AM

US Treasury Sec Geithner says default is unthinkable.

I wonder how he thought of that?

BlackHawk
Jun 21, 2011 - 8:12am

Forex News @ 8:09AM

US Treasury Sec Geithner says default is unthinkable.

I wonder how he thought of that?

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