Monday Charts

Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 1:40pm

Yawn. That pretty well sums up the day, doesn't it. Actually, after the Sunday Night Massacre and the ensuing, margin-induced madness, days like today are somewhat refreshing. Of course, we did get a margin reduction in gold last week but, as we all know by now, it meant very little.

Onto today. As boring as it was, there still are some very interesting things to watch. Significant technical events may occur over the next two weeks so you need to keep paying attention. First up, there's gold. The Forces of Evil and Darkness again showed up today as gold approached 1550. It seems they wanted everyone to know that they are paying attention, too, and not yet distracted by the bikinis and thongs of Long Island beaches.


I'll get to silver in a moment but I think we first need to look at crude. Did you notice last week when Trader Dan mentioned that "silver will underperform gold until we break from the deflationist mindset and move back toward inflation"? As you know, the key driver of general inflation is energy prices. Therefore, according to Dan's reasoning, we'll need to see a turnaround and reversal of the downtrend in crude before we can get excited about silver. The charts below give us every reason to expect solid support for crude near and just below $90. IF it can reverse there and then, with the help of a short-covering rally, head back above $96, enough strength should spill over into the PM pits to surge them higher.


So, then, here is silver. First and foremost, if it's going anywhere, it has to clear 36.25-50 first. IF it can pull that off, it should be able to make a charge toward $38 and the major resistance that resides there.



So, anyway, that's it for now. If you're looking for something to watch overnight, keep your eye on the crude market. The low today was 91.51. A re-test of that level followed by a rally could be the catalyst to drive silver toward that $38 level and inspire gold traders to attack the Death Star once more.

Have a great afternoon/evening. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 20, 2011 - 1:48pm



Jun 20, 2011 - 1:50pm
Jun 20, 2011 - 1:51pm


(from earlier)...

Been trying to reveal some of what is going on to my friends. i.e. "Getting more vocal". When you try and have a conversation w/ persons not versed in the ways and means of our Currency, The Fed. , Bankster's lending practices... it is disheartening to see they have little chance or interest, to understand what is going on...

Though some have returned to the topic w/o my prompting, and asked me to explain the nity grity again. Today my co-worker brought up the topic saying he was trying to explain Currency issues, the Fed, to his wife and struggled to lay it out in the way I had.

...Well that's a ripple on the water anyway...


Jun 20, 2011 - 2:07pm




Fed buys $4.58 billion in Treasurys

Double POMOS are very filling on Mondays

Jun 20, 2011 - 2:07pm

Someone must have covered a

Someone must have covered a pretty big short position today. It was fighting to go above 36 all last week so if it can hold it overnight that's going to look pretty good. I think we hit the bottom already but I hope it drops below 35 one more time...

Jun 20, 2011 - 2:08pm


I really like how the HUI seems to be bottoming at 500-490, former resistance now support. With massive shorts by the hedgies and high gold/silver prices, the shares are setting up for a blast higher. It feels like we will get last fall on steroids.

The Ponz
Jun 20, 2011 - 2:09pm

Follow the Oily Black Road

Thanks for connecting the dots, as always Turd. Seems like crude will let us know when the market realizes QE cannot end. Then, hopefully, to the Moon, Alice!

Also, another sign the S is Hing TF. The current headline at Marketwatch is "The Case for a U.S. Default."

Jun 20, 2011 - 2:23pm

I'd like to make it clear for

I'd like to make it clear for anyone reading that the it is not the LEVEL of the margin requirements on PMs that is important, it is how they are changed. These exchanges have every right to manage their risk in a reasonable way. But what happened to silver was a weeklong earthquake. No exchange acting in its own logical self interest would change the margin levels every single day for a whole week. They might change them once a week. Any more than that, and they create a bunch of pissed off traders who have lost a lot of money due to their actions, and will take their business elsewhere.

Risk management is a vital part of any exchange's activities, but the events of the first week of May were NOT risk management.

Indeed, as many trolls have said, we would in fact be better off in the long run if margin requirements were set at 100%. That would be very bad for the exchange, though, as they would miss out on a huge revenue stream. 

Jun 20, 2011 - 2:28pm

Gold Tsunami Coming

Hey all,

I have been away visiting friends and then family. Glad to see the new site is going well, and thought I would give my thoughts.

The debate has been about summer duldrums or an inflationary summer with gold and silver going wild as the reserve prints more money has been discussed thoroughly. With the amount of fiat uncertainty in the world, I take the viewpoint that the price of gold silver have been doing everything necessary for making new highs. It is important to look at price of gold in other currencies, in which is making/near record high prices in all major currencies. The bursting of this will happen together, as each currency will be setting new highs in gold (and then silver as well) at the same time giving a LOT of momentum. Once we pass old highs, the bull run will be re-confirmed, and we will start to witness the accelerating unwinding of the system as we know it.

I have a thread about price of gold in major currencies here:


For my personal assumption, I believe that we are about to enter a new stage of the path, and it is evident that TPTB are blatently in the open for all to see if they choose to now... they are not even hiding it anymore. Alex Jones is on the record for ground troops in Libya by September 2011, and eventually as per Lindsey Williams TPTB will try to pressure WWIII to begin (probably set for 2012?). I was re-introduced to these quotes when I was doing some meandering on the internet.

Albert Pike mentioned the 3 world wars to be:

"The First World War must be brought about in order to permit the Illuminati to overthrow the power of the Czars in Russia and of making that country a fortress of atheistic Communism. The divergences caused by the "agentur" (agents) of the Illuminati between the British and Germanic Empires will be used to foment this war. At the end of the war, Communism will be built and used in order to destroy the other governments and in order to weaken the religions."

"The Second World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences between the Fascists and the political Zionists. This war must be brought about so that Nazism is destroyed and that the political Zionism be strong enough to institute a sovereign state of Israel in Palestine. During the Second World War, International Communism must become strong enough in order to balance Christendom, which would be then restrained and held in check until the time when we would need it for the final social cataclysm."

"The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the "agentur" of the "Illuminati" between the political Zionists and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political Zionism (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other. Meanwhile the other nations, once more divided on this issue will be constrained to fight to the point of complete physical, moral, spiritual and economical exhaustionWe shall unleash the Nihilists and the atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, origin of savagery and of the most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the world minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate those destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned with Christianity, whose deistic spirits will from that moment be without compass or direction, anxious for an ideal, but without knowing where to render its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer, brought finally out in the public view. This manifestation will result from the general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and atheism, both conquered and exterminated at the same time."

--Albert Pike

(Source here:


Now that I got off topic, I am thinking 75$ by end of August for silver, setting up for $120-140 by the end of 2011. 2012 will be an interesting year, and we should definitely not lose track of the fact that we need solutions. Free your mind and empower yourself with love and good intention. Those who think they will be able to hide with supplies, I ask how you will live in a tyranny infested world? We have a chance to do something before it gets that far, let's get working... I will be restarting my webpage. Please visit from time to time at:


Scott J

Jun 20, 2011 - 2:29pm

Big ole YAWN

Big Yawn!

Big ole YAWN!

Jun 20, 2011 - 2:48pm

Actually, a steady climb in

Actually, a steady climb in gold and silver today...with strong buying stepping in at $1533 and $35.25 is exciting to me. Crude continues to sink, yet the PM's are climbing? This defies all the algos that were giving us fits just 8 weeks ago.

TF I hope you're right about crude support at 90 as I own shares of a few companies formerly known as Canadian oil trusts, and their prices aren't exactly singing during this take down. It would seem a logical place for stout support.

The era of strong silver moves of $1 to $2 a day might not be playing out right now, but strong buying coming in day after day at higher levels, to me, is exciting. *yeah yeah, I life must be pretty boring, right?* lol

Jun 20, 2011 - 2:53pm

Margin hike worked

Margin hike worked. Gold OI increased by 10k contracts, silver OI declined slightly.

Clearly, gold is currently holding more steady and is closer to its all time highs, but if you invest in something that is going up or has already gone up a lot, well, you probably should quit investing, or at least try a lot harder to understand investing, because you're getting it wrong. Silver is much much much more bullish than gold right now and will strongly outperform it in the not too distant future.

- Markus

Daedalus Mugged
Jun 20, 2011 - 3:03pm

Margin Theory

Turd, I know you don't normally answer questions in comments, but I was hoping you could opine on the theory that (part of) the motivation for gold margin reduction was to to further lure speculative PM interest away from silver into gold. Au already had much higher leverage than Ag, and they just further increased it. 

Any thoughts anyone?

Art Lomax
Jun 20, 2011 - 3:15pm

Grain Margins

Regarding the CME margin changes, looks like the changes for corn and other grains

are for spread margins, not margin on the individual futures contracts. Somebody correct me if this is not right.

Jun 20, 2011 - 3:29pm

Talking about charts

EGO and TRX are giving me technical buy signals. Those of you are in accumulation mode might wanna take a look.

Jun 20, 2011 - 3:33pm

an invitation

If you are bored here is an invitation to join me in early morning preMarket trading. All the textbooks tell you not to trade then because of 'liquidity' concerns but if you trade GLD and SLV this is no problem and besides the banksters and pros don't want you in their playground. The spikes up and down in the early morning make for great entrances and exits and good trading opportunities, then closer to the opening the pros narrow the range and make it considerably more difficult to make money via volatility. This is my observation only. But I don't mind being up at 1 a.m. to place buy and sometimes sell orders because that market feels much more free flowing up and down. If you watch the futures long enough you can all see the patterns and tendencies quite clearly. They simply assume that most daytraders will not get up that early and that mutual funds of course don't trade then. Just some thoughts that may be of help to anyone interested..... 

zopilote SilverWealth
Jun 20, 2011 - 3:58pm

an invitation

Thanks, SilverWealth, for your tip on pre Market trading. I looked at spot silver prices for this AM and at about 7:45 it had a 5min RSI of about 24 and was just dropping below the 5min Bollinger Bands. Then they ran the price up to 36 at opening, and waited for all the daytraders to bite. Nice way to make a little money. I'll be watching more closely now - not too tough for me as I'm on the west coast. 

Eric Original
Jun 20, 2011 - 4:18pm

Oil looking better

Given TF's comments about oil above, today's action would seem to be pretty encouraging. Maybe those low 91's from this morning will turn out to be a bottom. We are now $2 above there, in the low 93's.

SilverWealth zopilote
Jun 20, 2011 - 4:26pm


Zo, - you'll notice that the Asian Market often bids up gold and silver so that at my time when trading in Slv and Gld starts at 1 a.m. Pacific time they will often drive the price directly down into a lower range in a waterfall or a series of spike downs. this I assume is the opening of the London Market but I don't know. Oftentimes then that becomes your high and low for the day and for the morning. Time varies but if you buy any of these sizeable spike downs from 1 to 4a.m. or so or average down into them with a series of bids then quite often the Market will spike up as well as pros and banks and night owls trade. The Market at that time feels much more free flowing and less persecuted by hunter-killer Algo robots. The ranges are larger, the volatility is greater and the movements are more abrupt because I suppose fewer people are trading. There are all kinds of ways to approach this and the hours of activity vary but I feel definitely that they tighten up the trading range and often towards the open so that Joe retail doesn't make much money on the open when all the real deception begins. this is just my experience. I find it very telling however that textbooks which I am very suspicious of in trading discourage early morning trading. 

Jun 20, 2011 - 4:34pm


I forgot to mention, I don't chase price movement or buy 'breakouts', often they are just bull-traps. I average down into weakness and buy what others are selling. If you look for momentum breakouts in the early morning off of oscillators chances are you will be fooled,conned and deceived. I think they want you looking at that stuff. I just use a simple Stoch oversold reading on a 1 or 3 minute candle or notice the degree and amount of the waterfall down. Sometimes too the waterfalls mark down in an abcd series with the a-b and c-d as two separate legs down and being of almost the same length and the b-c bounce being short in between them. This pattern can repeat frequently though not always and this is why I don't just dive in at a low and define it as a low since a 2nd and last leg down can come to shakeout future's traders, its that last leg that demoralizes them imo.

Jun 20, 2011 - 4:43pm

Corn Hogs

Where can I get me some o' 'dem corn hogs?

Jun 20, 2011 - 5:14pm

To DoC regarding your Fed question...

Didn't know there was a new thread, so will post my reply from the previous thread here as well in case you missed it on the last one:


Submitted by D0C on June 20, 2011 - 12:46pm.

Where can I get definitive facts about the people, groups, banks, whoever, that was instrumental in the founding of the federal reserve. Tyvm.


I believe the best source out there regarding your question is The Creature From Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin. Here's the link from Amazon:

I've read it twice, and frankly, it should be required reading for all high school and or college students as well. Good luck with that in this commie educational system though! haha

But if all Americans read this book I think we'd have burned Washington D.C. down long ago and thrown all those crooked bums in jail for life (or worse)!

I've given several friends and family their own copies, and it was just as big of an eye-opener for them as it was for me! 

It's very fun to have them come back to me after the next chapter they've read all fired up about what they learned! Hopefully, you'll want to share it with everyone you know after you read it too.

Anyways, just thought I'd throw that out there for you because it's an excellent book.

Jun 20, 2011 - 5:26pm

@ Yawn

Hey, buddy, where did you get that pic of my ex-wife from?

Eric Original
Jun 20, 2011 - 5:43pm

Fortuna Silver

Fortuna's new silver mine seems to be coming along ahead of schedule.

Jun 20, 2011 - 5:43pm

@ Save_America1st and others

The Creature from Jekyll Island is definitely a good read about the counterfeiting banksters (and their bitch politicians), how they print money out of thin air, lend it to us and then charge interest for their "service" so that we are on a never-ending treadmill of debt. Here's another good read which condenses Jekyll Island quite a bit but gives a reader the general idea about what's happening. The article is dated, but still valid.


Jun 20, 2011 - 5:49pm

Silver COT

A new reader asked me for my interpretation of the COT chart for silver, a chart I posted previously, so here's my 2¢, for what it's worth. The commercials are decreasing their shorts, which is akin to increasing their longs, and have been doing so markedly for the last 5 weeks ever since the infamous Sunday night silver massacre, and it looks to me like accumulation is underway (this appears to have been the case previously when one juxtaposes commercial activity relative to the price of silver, and it looks to be happening again). I believe it to be only a matter of time before we take out 38, then 40 and then push towards 40-something, given the current activity of the commercials. My 2¢, for what it's worth.

Jun 20, 2011 - 6:05pm
Jun 20, 2011 - 6:05pm

Everyone in little cubicles?

After reading/strolling through this new site I have to admit, I miss the old format. Scrolling down a long list of comments is easier than clicking around in segregated places. Miss the eclectic nature of comments too, from garden to futures to world events to silver and gold and everything between all mixed in together. Never had much trouble sliding through trolls of idle chitchat to get to comments of interest. Don't miss Blogger technology, but this site does take more time to scan the comments and somehow I lose a sense of flow after a while. 

Still check in to see Turd's always great posts but finding my favorite denizens has become more than I can usually take the time to accomplish. Seems everyone is now in their own little cubicles running their own blogs and such. Miss the ebb and flow of a single thread. There's lots of new whistles and bells and that's cool... probably just me, admittedly techno-change-resistant (and lazy and busy).

Could there possibly be too many improvements, refinements and segments? Maybe I'm just knee deep in the tar pits. Whoops... is this kind of comment even allowed on this particular thread? Uh, where am I anyway? So many rooms. Don't mean to be too critical, just sayin'.

aurum argentum
Jun 20, 2011 - 6:23pm

Little boxes

I wasn't going to rock the boat but since you brought it up. I agree. I liked the old format better for the same reasons that you do. It was ecclectic down the page. I only stay on this blog page...Oh well.

Jun 20, 2011 - 6:39pm

I Believe Mr. Pike has missed a few items:

He says " disillusioned with Christianity,whose deistic spirits will from that moment be without compass or direction, anxious for an ideal, but without knowing where to render its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer". This is only true for some and not truth at all for a called out church of the end times. It is correct that in the end days, time of great tribulation, that the majority of pew sitters will have that mark of the beast and really are marked already. However, in that day and time period, the Lord will manifest his Sons to the world. We have read the Book and we know who wins in the end and some of Albert's concepts may be attracted to the wrong bent. - Silver may go to $150, gold to $10,000 and oil to $50 but none of that will matter if one has lost their families, their peace, and their lives. I have seen the poverty of nations firsthand and have seen whole families living in a culvert pipe. The day will come when we will cast the gold and silver into the street and dream of the former happy days that are gone forever and will will finally see that the whole battle was really spiritual from the beginning. If one goes to a hut in Zululand and tells them what is coming in the economy of the world. They will say "we have nothing to lose, we never had any of it". We, however, are pre-occupied with how to protect our wealth to survive and may have missed the most important issues of this life. j.m.o. (T.F.- I know this is not for this site but one just cannot sit and say nothing when faced with a rising tide of national fears).

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 12/31

1/2 9:45 am ET Markit Manu PMI
1/3 10:00 am ET ISM Manu Index
1/4 8:30 am ET BLSBS
1/4 9:45 am ET Markit Serv PMI

Recent Comments