Guest Post: "Three Hurricanes Headed Our Way -- No Where To Hide", by Jim Quinn

Fri, May 1, 2015 - 7:38pm

Jim Quinn has written another tremendous post. This time he cites the recent work of analyst John Hussman and you definitley need to take the time to read it.

"Three Hurricanes Headed Our Way -- No Where to Hide",

by, Jim Quinn of

There are three financial hurricanes hurtling towards our country and most people are oblivious to the coming catastrophe. The time to prepare is now, not when the hurricane warnings are issued.

John Hussman makes his usual solid case that stocks and bonds are as overvalued as they have ever been in the history of investing. People are under the false impression that bonds are always a safe investment. The fact that you are already getting a negative real return on bonds doesn’t seem to compute with math challenged Americans. Over the next ten years you will absolutely lose money in bonds.

Liquidity in both the stock and bond markets is thinning considerably. In bonds, quantitative easing by global central banks has resulted in a scarcity of available collateral, a collapse in repo liquidity, and increasing frequency of delivery failures, all of which is shorthand for a bond market that is becoming less liquid and more fragile to any credit event. Meanwhile, risk premiums are minuscule. Avoiding a negative total return on 10-year bonds now requires that interest rates must not rise by even one percentage point over the next three years. Bond yields have historically covered investors against a meaningful change in yields before resulting in negative total returns. On a one-year return horizon, bond yields presently cover investors for a yield change amounting to only about 0.25 standard deviations – matching mid-2012 as the lowest level of yield coverage in history.

The fragility of the economic, financial, and social systems of the U.S. is at extreme levels. The median American household has less real income than they had in 1989. The social fabric of the country is tearing as we speak, with Baltimore and Ferguson as the warning shots of coming chaos and civil strife. The ruling elite control the monetary system, so the rigged financial markets continue to rise and have reached bubble proportions. An unexpected pin will be along shortly to pop the bubble. The next crash will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. It may be decades until markets reach these levels again.

Market crashes always reflect two features: extremely thin risk premiums in an environment where investors have shifted toward greater risk-aversion, and lopsided selling into an illiquid market. Under present conditions, we observe the precursors for both. That doesn’t force or ensure a crash, but it creates the underlying fragility that allows one.

Last week, the Nasdaq Composite finally clawed its way to breakeven, 15 years after its spectacular bubble peak in 2000. It’s a testament to the overvaluation of technology stocks in 2000 that it has required the third equity bubble in 15 years to reclaim that 2000 high, at least briefly. As you may remember, the Nasdaq Composite reached its intra-day high of 5132.52 in March 2000, plunging to 795.25 (down -78%) by October 2002. The Nasdaq 100, representing the most glamourous of the group, peaked at 4816.25 in March 2000, plunging to 795.25 (down 83%) by October 2002. Even a decade later, in 2010, both indices were still 60-65% below their 2000 highs. The 2000-2002 decline also took the S&P 500 down by half, wiping out the entire total return of the S&P 500 – in excess of Treasury bill returns – all the way back to May 1996.

The S&P 500 presently teeters near its all-time high at 2,115. Its fair value, based upon multiple historically accurate valuation models is 940. Therefore, this market would have to drop 56% to reach fair value. In the real world, crashes often exceed fair value to the downside. Is there anyone you know prepared for a 50% to 60% decline in the stock market?

On the basis of valuation measures best correlated with actual subsequent market returns, we can say with a strong degree of confidence that the S&P 500 would presently have to drop to the 940 level in order for investors to expect a historically normal 10-year total return of 10% annually. That 940 figure for the S&P 500 would not represent some extreme, catastrophic outcome. It’s not a level that would even represent undervaluation from a historical perspective. It’s the level that we would associate with average, historically run-of-the-mill long-term equity returns. As we observed at the 2000 peak, “if you understand values and market history, you know we’re not joking.”

Many will call Hussman a prophet of doom or the little investment adviser who cried wolf. But, he has been here before. He didn’t buckle to peer pressure in 2000 or 2007. He analyzed the data and reached a logical conclusion. We all know bubbles can grow to epic proportions based on delusion, hope, and lies. Hussman was right in 2000. Hussman was right in 2007. And Hussman will be right this time.

You’ll recall we also made similarly “preposterous” comments in April 2007 (see Fair Value – 40% Off). Though our measures of market internals would finally turn negative in late-July of that year (see Market Internals Go Negative), the S&P 500 was already within 10% of its pre-collapse high of 1565 by April. At the time, we estimated reasonable valuations to be “about 40% below current levels,” adding:

“Again, that doesn’t imply that stocks have to actually suffer a decline of that magnitude. Nor do we need such a decline in order to justify an unhedged investment stance. It’s just that investors should not expect the S&P 500 to reliably deliver long-term returns of 10% annually or better until it does. You’ll note that there are also points in history when the S&P 500 traded substantially below that 10% valuation line. Those were points where stocks were priced to deliver long-term returns reliably above 10% annually, and in fact, they did exactly that.”

By late-October 2008, the S&P 500 had indeed declined by well over 40% from its peak, at which point we observed that stocks were no longer overvalued (see Why Warren Buffett is Right and Why Nobody Cares).

The numbers speak for themselves. There is no new paradigm. The Fed is not infallible. The economy is already in recession. Corporate revenues and profits are falling. The consumer isn’t consuming. The market is being elevated by nothing but Wall Street hot air and HFT computers. This time is not different.

To fully understand the present valuation extreme, recognize that the market cap/GDP ratio is currently about 1.29 versus a pre-bubble norm of just 0.55, with “secular” lows such as 1982 taking the ratio to about 0.33. To fully understand the present valuation extreme, recognize that the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio is currently about 1.80, versus a pre-bubble norm of just 0.8, with “secular” lows taking the ratio to about 0.45.”

As for other investors, the worst mistake they made prior to the 2000-2002 collapse was to believe Wall Street’s claims that stocks were not in a bubble, and that this time was different. The worst mistake that other investors made prior to the 2007-2009 collapse was to believe Wall Street’s claims that stocks were not in a bubble, and that this time was different. The worst mistake that other investors are making today is to believe Wall Street’s claims that stocks are not in a bubble, and that this time is different.

Even brilliant investors can lose their nerve and capitulate to the trend and to peer pressure. Don’t be stupid. Don’t believe Wall Street. Don’t let them screw you again. Get your money out of the market.

Last month, Stan Druckenmiller recounted his own experience with capitulation and performance chasing when he was the lead portfolio manager for George Soros and the Quantum Fund:

“I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’ office and I say I’m selling all the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy… Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the next fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gun slingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day, and I’m out. It’s driving me nuts. I mean, their little account is like up 50% on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there.

“So like around March I could feel it coming. I just – I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times during the same week I pick up a – don’t do it. Don’t do it. Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You ask me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that.”

Hussman doesn’t address real estate in his weekly letter, but that is the third hurricane headed our way. Despite home ownership reaching three decade lows, stagnant real wage growth, and an economy that has never truly come out of the 2008/2009 recession, home prices have somehow risen 30% since 2012. The combination of keeping foreclosures off the market, the Wall Street hedge fund buy and rent scheme, Chinese billionaires parking their ill-gotten gains in US high end houses, FHA, Fannie, and Freddie encouraging low down payment mortgages, and the return of flippers has produced an echo bubble in the housing market. Home prices are only 18% from the 2006 all-time high. This bubble will burst congruently with the stock and bond bubbles. Anyone who has bought a house with a low down payment since 2012 is going to be deeply underwater in the next few years. Book it. 

Hussman, myself and a few other bloggers will be scoffed at for our warnings. That’s alright. I have thick skin. I don’t really give a shit what anyone thinks about me or my opinions. I deal with facts. As Hussman wrote in 2000, the question now is only about when. It isn’t years. It’s months, weeks or days.

“The issue is no longer whether the current market resembles those preceding the 1929, 1969-70, 1973-74, and 1987 crashes. The issue is only – are conditions more like October of 1929, or more like April? Like October of 1987, or more like July? If the latter, then over the short term, arrogant imprudence will continue to be mistaken for enlightened genius, while studied restraint will be mistaken for stubborn foolishness. We can’t rule out further gains, but those gains will turn bitter… Let’s not be shy: regardless of short-term action, we ultimately expect the S&P 500 to fall by more than half, and the Nasdaq by two-thirds. Don’t scoff without reviewing history first.”

– Hussman Econometrics, February 9, 2000

Read Hussman’s Weekly Letter

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


May 1, 2015 - 6:40pm

Bloody Hell

I'm First

ned braden Marchas45
May 1, 2015 - 6:43pm



May 1, 2015 - 7:18pm

First to Hat Tip

the article. The Burning Platform has been one of my go-to-daily sites (after TFMR) for about a year now.

May 1, 2015 - 7:54pm

Friday Night Quinn!!

..... and I'm fourth, on a Friday night(sigh).

May 1, 2015 - 8:31pm

Two top 10s this week

In the words of Dave Chappelle...FIF!!!

Just went to a pre-retirement class and the lecturer HIGHLY recommended a 60/40 split between stocks and bonds in my 401K. Now I read this and I'm thinking, what does a poor middle class boy do. If I leave it in Treasuries, Uncle Sam will find a way to "bail in" me out of it and if I leave it in stocks and bonds, the EE will screw me out of it. I can't remove it from the 401K without a ridiculous penalty and I still have a little under 4 years before I retire. Luckily, I've been BTFDing for the last few years, but my 401K is still substantially more than my stack. 

Seriously, how can anyone planning to retire expect to have any chance of comfort when these greedy cocksuckers have basically nailed us all to the wall in their insane quest for more money? Does anyone come out well on the other end of this?

Okay...rant off...! Have a great weekend all!

May 1, 2015 - 8:39pm

idiot mkt

You're an idiot if you buy you're an idiot if you sell Do neither Stack and sleep well

May 1, 2015 - 8:47pm
4 oz
May 1, 2015 - 8:50pm

From My Credit Union Today~~~~

This was in my email from my Credit Union today....

Runs 1 minute passing it along because I'm just not sure what to think of it..... They've never sent me anything like this before....and right up front, makes me all the more appreciate paying for things with cash...

May 1, 2015 - 11:49pm

4 oz.

Nothing there to click on to see or listen to.

May 1, 2015 - 11:50pm

4 oz.

Fat finger dupe.

May 2, 2015 - 1:20am

Late night beer fueled thought

"Everybody wants special treatment because they just want to be like everybody else", WTF, as I say, and another thing, do you spell fuelled with one L or two ? Have a great weekend Turdville, cheers !

May 2, 2015 - 4:14am



I listened to Turd's interview with Mickey Fulp and missed commenting early on in the blog, so I thought I would leave a comment here so more members could have access to it. I hope you all don't mind me commenting about this subject matter here.

I decided to take the time to comment about Silver as Mickey Fulp and I have a totally different fundamental view about the shinny metal. Mickey would label me as a Malthusian... someone who believes in limits. I first contacted Mickey when he became a new follower to my SRSrocco Report twitter feed and found out rather quickly that Mickey does not believe in peak oil.

Mickey commented in his interview with Turd that the earth's resources will never run out except for BIRD GUANO. While I agree with Mickey that most resources will not run out, THAT ISN'T THE IMPORTANT QUESTION. What is?

Will resources PEAK? That is the real question. Even Matt Simmons who was one of the leading advocates of peak oil never said we would run out of oil. Matter-a-fact, he said that was a stupid statement. It's not a matter of running out, its a matter of peak production and then what happens during the decline.

The reason I believe silver will probably be one of the best physical assets to own in the future is tied to the peak and decline of Unconventional Oil Production. We already passed peak Conventional oil in 2005. That is not up for debate. We are just waiting for the peak of expensive crap oil.. in which Americans can't really afford without the Fed & U.S. Govt propping up the markets (and shale energy industry).

The wildcatters during the early 1900's were finding oil fields in the United States with an EROI between 100-1,000/1. Those peaked. Now, we get to screw around with drilling like rabbits the Bakken and Eagle Ford to produce oil at a lousy EROI of 5/1. And that will peak too.

NOTE: EROI = Energy Returned On Invested

So what's next? How about that lower grade Oil Shale which we supposedly have 1 trillion barrels of resources in the West? Does Mickey realize Oil shale has an EROI of less than 2/1. The companies drilling in the Bakken were losing their shirts even when oil prices were $90-$100. How in the living hell are we going to produce crappy oil shale at an EROI less than 2/1?

Mickey says that American ingenuity and technology will solve our problems. Unfortunately, the more technology we throw at a problem, the more the EROI declines...LOL. Take a look at this chart below:

The United States drilled a massive 35,699 wells just in 2014 to produce its petroleum liquids, whereas Saudi Arabia drilled a paltry 399 wells. When a country has to invest so much energy in producing its energy, there's a hell of a lot less energy available for the MARKET & ECONOMY. This is not rocket science, just plain common sense.

Furthermore, the more technology is used to get the energy, the less energy is available for the market as well. So, technology is not the solution, but rather a curse.

I believe we are going to see the peak and decline of U.S. Shale Oil production within the next year or so... and it may be currently happening due to the low price of oil. This will put severe stress on the Fed and U.S. Govt's ability to PAPER OVER the financial and economic problems. 

The Fed and U.S. Govt have been able to paper over the financial system that died in 2008 because we brought on more expensive Shale oil and gas. We must remember, the U.S. and World need a growing oil supply to increase its GDP. 

Mickey Fulp and I look at Silver differently because we have two totally different fundamental beliefs on how the system functions. Which is why I am a big fan of owning physical silver. I believe the peak and decline of unconventional oil production will destroy the valuations of most paper assets going forward. Thus, owning silver will be one of the few HIGH QUALITY stores of value in the future.

Lastly, I am writing 3 Reports on the Silver Market. The first two focus on the silver market and industry and the third will be on the Primary Silver Miners. A good bit of the information in the second report I don't think anyone in the precious metal community has ever seen (or very few). I spoke with David Morgan on the phone about few of the items, in which he told me he never heard before. 

Owning silver hasn't been easy these past few years, but I believe by 2020 (or before), we will be very glad we did.


SRSrocco Report

May 2, 2015 - 5:19am

1931. Happy May Day everyone.

1931. Happy May Day everyone. Note, not one fat person and everyone wore hats.

"Ye Merrie Monthe Of Maye" (1931)
Ripon2013 SRSrocco
May 2, 2015 - 6:43am


Great post.....thank you you are one of the few rational minds left in our market

May 2, 2015 - 7:20am

Clearly a quiet weekend so

Clearly a quiet weekend so take this very very seriously - this is actually real..........

Utah lawmakers are now considering legalizing medical marijuana in their state, which has the DEA very concerned about the impending threat of stoned bunny rabbits.

Sen. Mark Madsen recently introduced a bill that would allow patients to legally possess and use medical marijuana. While Madsen is looking out for his constituents, special agent Matt Fairbanks is convinced that legalization would only turn the state’s cutest mammals against them.

In a testimony presented to the Utah Senate Panel, Fairbanks shared his harrowing experiences with hares as part of the state’s “cannabis eradication” team.

“I deal in facts. I deal in science,” said Fairbanks, prefacing his argument for the preservation of drug-free wildlife.

Whitecastle123 Hammer
May 2, 2015 - 8:07am

stoned bunnies

You can't fix stupid.

May 2, 2015 - 1:15pm

Jim Willie

Good read.

Gold & Silver will be at the core of the new monetary system. Following the Global Currency Reset, better named the Return of the Gold Trade Standard, precious metals will prevail once again. For over 40 years, the FOREX tail has wagged the trade dog. The Petro-Dollar system enabled the paper currency regime to dictate terms on trade norms and banking reserves management. A reversal is soon to take place. The trade corridors will take control, since the Petro-Dollar is dead, in fact dying a horrible death. With Emerging Market strength, and with vast warehouses of Eastern family Gold, the trade dog will wag its own golden currency tail properly at long last. Justice will be meted out, as the most magnificent vanishing of wealth in human history is undertaken. The majority put their trust in paper, and lost. They trusted the system after a generation of indoctrination, and were betrayed. The people were deceived on matters of money and capital, and lost both life savings and family fortunes. The American public knows very little about concepts of money and capital, and therefore will be treated to devastation. Let history judge whether it was a meretricious swing of justice. Only precious metals and certain physical assets will survive the storm

May 2, 2015 - 1:19pm

Denver Dave, Rory Hall and John Embry

Dave states this is one of Embry's best talk in a while I have not listened but I bet it is good.

This blatant market manipulation activity to me suggests there’s something worse going on behind the scenes than you and I think…All i can see is increasing volatility in the system…this is blowing a hole in derivatives. Given how intrusive derivatives are on bank balance sheets there has to be problem that they are trying to cover up. – John Embry, Shadow of Truth

May 2, 2015 - 2:41pm

CHARTS and STORIES fools 'em again, and again, ..., ..., ..., !

Taking the reality side regarding the subjects of Silver and Peak Oil.

The Earth produces oil - It's a natural geological process.

The guys at Audi are now using the same natural process themselves. (this isn't complicated and it doesn't require a limited supply of Dinosaur bones)

Audi Researchers Create Liquid e-Diesel


"Peak Oil", on the other hand, is not real oil. It's a concept, created by charts and stories in people's minds. "Peak Oil" was probably created originally by bankers so they could up-charge based on the false perception of scarcity. And it's ("Peak Oil") now just repeated by out-of-work Snake Oil salesmen looking for their next crowd draw.


Silver doesn't need "peak oil" to return to it's monetary role in the hearts and minds of people.

Nor, imo, do people who might be new to the world of Silver and Gold need snake oil salesman feigning camaraderie with pained expressions telling them that "yes, sad it's been so hard on us all, but let's just put our hope in these bottles of "peak oil" elixir which I can deliver regularly at my web-site or via newsletter"

It hasn't been hard to own Silver. Silver is real, Silver doesn't charge us fees, Silver doesn't require correspondence or meetings. Silver can't be bailed-in or made to disappear by an internet chart. What's so hard about that??

And, as this system ends and Silver and Gold return to their monetary role (via the natural monetary process that doesn't involve bottles of C & S elixir) as they ALWAYS do- these last few easy years of owning Silver will be recognized as the position of a lifetime.

Only Silver and Gold are Money

Just keep stackin' it, and go light on the elixir as it causes blindness (to reality).

gold slut
May 2, 2015 - 2:48pm

@ lund175

Thanks for the post, yes certainly a possibility.

I, however, think that the last 40 years of creaming the money off the top of the paper system means that the PTB will simply do some reset to another (rebranded) paper system which allows them to keep fleecing the plebs for another 40 years. Go to some (honest) gold or silver backed system?? Well, where is the profit in that??? Not going to happen, but I am glad that I hold some!

May 2, 2015 - 3:27pm

REPLY to SS121

If those Russians supposedly have all that aboitic oil.... why in the living hell did they drill over 8, 000 wells in 2014?? LOL. By the way... the Audi e-Diesel isn't a fuel, its a medium for energy. Basically an energy carrier. You need an energy source to make it. Petoleum based diesel is a real energy source... e-diesel isn't. Steve

Yirm Cohen lund175
May 2, 2015 - 5:32pm

Jim Willie

Good post.

Thanks for the Turd info, which correlates what I have already been hearing: 1. GB and others are emptying their vaults (and being bought up by China and India); 2. China has purchased over 3000 metric tons of gold in the last four years (and this doesn't even include the gold they actually have mined themselves); 3. China and almost 40 other nations are signing currency agreements, avoiding the USD; 4. Spox's in international economic policy-making circles herald the real possibility of an economic reset. With these in mind, it appears, indeed, that the petro-dollar is dying a shameful death, and those who are stocking up on physical gold and silver (especially silver; even a correction to its historical ratio to gold of 16/1 would be great) is a good bet.

May 2, 2015 - 5:48pm

Fuel vs Fuel Medium...

Call it whatever Peak Oil Doctrine requires... but when she pours it into her car, the car goes 'vrooooom vroooom' and she drives away.


B b b but it takes energy to produce!!

Yes, just as the geological forces (energy) inside planet earth are required for the production of the oil that is continuously being produced there.

When the Sun quits shining (energy), and the Earth quits turning (energy), then we can maybe start to put a dent in the Earth's virtually unlimited supply of oil. ...or should we call it the Earth's oil like energy medium?


Texas Sandman
May 2, 2015 - 6:52pm

Difference is what is commercially feasible

US Geological Survey says we run out of silver by 2020. Mind you, there will still be silver to mine. But it's just not economically viable to produce it. Maybe with silver at $500/oz rather than $15...

We've already been seeing this slowly in the form of declining ore grades (more tons of ore to produce an oz of the shiny). And processing ore requires... You guessed it. Energy. So you need more & more energy at higher and higher (if Rocco is right) cost.

I think the same concept is what SRSROCCO is getting at with the EROI.

I mean maybe we'll find a replacement for silver. However, given it is the most conductive of electricity and heat, the most reflective metal (think solar), and has use in antimicrobials as well, that seems unlikely. It hasn't happened yet.

And certainly silver has a history as money. The coinage act of 1792 defined the dollar as a weight of silver. I have a coin in my collection from the time of alexander the great in silver, a tetradrachm. That was before coin clipping came into vogue there, and in 1964 in our empire. The chinese symbol for money translates as silver. So this is ingrained.

"You can ignore reality. But you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality."

Ayn Rand

May 2, 2015 - 7:26pm

Re "And it gets worse"

new ZerOhead ZerOhead's picture Vote up! 12 Vote down! -1 Jade codes for China Helm codes for control Brandon Smith was right after all... And it gets worse... ? The BATMAN THEATER SHOOTING: It's time to see behind the cloak - YouTube [seems right down the TFMR rabit hole]

May 2, 2015 - 8:53pm



Oh if only , if only, we could see the Truth and the roadway ahead. If we could only see our state of ruin and our fallen condition, our lack is massive. 

I has a great breakfast with my framing crew this morning, a rough bunch for sure. One of the men had stopped at a small store to purchase something. The young woman at the register gave him an old quarter in his change. He asked where she obtained the coin. She said someone had spent a whole roll of these quarters from the 1920- 1940 era. She thought they were not real quarters. So he bought all of them for 25 cents each. She had never seen a real quarter and wanted to just dump these old ones. Somebody lost some great silver coins today. 

Yes there are times when we do not handle the truth correctly and take fiat for those old silver coins, even at face value. Revelation 18 is approaching and it will take more than a large bugout bag and a large bitcoin account to find the Hiding Place! jmo Jim

Dyna mo hum
May 2, 2015 - 9:15pm


A young Army officer was severely wounded in the head by a grenade, but the only visible, permanent injury was that both of his ears were amputated.

Since his remaining hearing was sufficient, he stayed in the Army.

Many years later he eventually rose to the rank of Major General. He was, however, very sensitive about his appearance. One day the General was interviewing three servicemen who were candidates for his headquarters staff.

The first was a Captain, a tactical helicopter pilot, and it was a great interview. At the end of the interview the General asked him, “Do you notice anything different about me?”

The young officer answered, “Why, yes, Sir, I couldn’t help but notice that you have no ears.”

The general was displeased with his lack of tact and threw him out.

The second interview was with a Navy Lieutenant, and he was even better. The General then asked him the same question, “Do you notice anything different about me?”

He replied sheepishly, “Well, sir, you have no ears.” The General threw him out also.

The third interview was with an old Sergeant Major, an Infantryman and staff-trained NCO. He was smart, articulate, fit, looked sharp, and seemed to know more than the two officers combined.

The General liked this guy, and went ahead with the same question, “Do you notice anything different about me?” To his surprise the Sergeant Major said, “Yes, sir, you wear contact lenses.”

The General was very impressed and thought, “What an incredibly observant NCO, and he didn’t mention my ears.” He asked, “Sergeant Major, how did you know I wear contacts?”

“Well, sir,” the soldier replied, “it’s pretty hard to wear glasses with no fucking ears”.
-Mr Orsm

Dyna mo hum
May 2, 2015 - 9:17pm
May 2, 2015 - 9:23pm

Apologies and Silver Discussion

First my apologies to SRSRocco. I could have made my same points without getting lippy. It's no excuse, but sometimes after i've been to the maddening MSM sites I forget to wait until my blood pressure is back down into the green before posting here. So for my lippyness, I apologize.

As for Silver, and the many many factors that are discussed as being most significant, I think the single most important factor is the one that is NEVER discussed within the silver community.

We talk about anything and everything surrounding the prospecting, mining, refining, and minting of Silver,

...wholesale, retail, industrial supply issues, stacker supply issues, all the demand issues, .."markets" banker reports, miner stocks, etc etc... you name it. If it's Silver related we talk about it.

And every single thing is discussed in the context of price. But the one thing that is almost never discussed is the silver chart itself. And the fact that the silver chart, and not the free market, determines the price that all other factors are effected by.

One single privately owned chart controls the price of the world's physical Silver transactions. Industrial transactions, ...wholesalers, retailers, mine ore, etc etc... They have no effect on the silver chart, but the silver chart has a direct effect on them.

And i say the silver chart, not the silver market. Because the chart is what is referenced. And there is NO evidence whatsoever that anything advertised as the silver market has even connection to the prices displayed on the silver chart.

The silver chart itself. That is the 800 lb gorilla that is constantly talked around, but never specifically examined. imo.

May 3, 2015 - 7:24am

willie did nail the whole five year scenario in three paragraphs

Brevity is the soul of reason. Willie nailed this big time. Check the daily price all you want but his latest article sums it up. In the end the colonization of the Americas using Asian gold wealth is the price your offspring will pay for 2 generations of debt. You should be doing everything you can to protect the ones after you. Does any one have any evidence that this is not the outcome? Would like to hear from you.


The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold device. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route. Next soon comes the heralded Gold Trade Note used as Letter of Credit in facilitated trade. The movement cannot be stopped, not by war, not by sanctions, not by toxic monetary spew. The global rejection of the USDollar continues, far above the din of Washington and Wall Street propaganda. The nascent Eurasian Trade Zone will soon include Germany and whatever nation follows its prudent lead. The Teutonic shift is more clear with each passing month, in a sequence replete with intrigue and betrayal. Events of early 2015 proceed in the nasty sequence to isolate the US and its monopolist money mavens. The King Dollar is dying a horrible death, as Gold will return to its rightful throne. The toxic USD will be chucked into the dustbin of history. Bond fraud, asset bubble devotion, and QE will be the captions read in the annals of this chapter of ruin. The rise of the USDollar precedes its vanishing act.

The New Scheiss Dollar will be launched in order to guarantee import supply to the beleaguered nation. However, the New Dollar will not pass muster. It will quickly fail, due to final phase fraud. The palette full of new Gold & Silver backed currencies will include the Chinese Yuan, the Russian Ruble, the Gulf Dinar, the New Nordic Euro, possibly the New Mexican Peso (silver backed), possibly the Central American Dollar (if Panama can elude Langley murder obstacles). The requirement for sustained usage will be independent audit, which the New Scheiss Dollar will not pass. Its deep storage gold fraud will be exposed for all the world to see. Next stop is the New American Third World. It is a lock, followed by colonization by China. Expect the Chinese industrial park concept to flourish, executed by force, paved by USGovt policy. In five years, the biggest new marginal employer and lender inside the USEconomy will be Chinese firms. They will tap the idle US talent, but with lower wages than expected, and absent the hefty fringe benefit packages the workers have grown accustomed to.

Gold & Silver will be at the core of the new monetary system. Following the Global Currency Reset, better named the Return of the Gold Trade Standard, precious metals will prevail once again. For over 40 years, the FOREX tail has wagged the trade dog. The Petro-Dollar system enabled the paper currency regime to dictate terms on trade norms and banking reserves management. A reversal is soon to take place. The trade corridors will take control, since the Petro-Dollar is dead, in fact dying a horrible death. With Emerging Market strength, and with vast warehouses of Eastern family Gold, the trade dog will wag its own golden currency tail properly at long last. Justice will be meted out, as the most magnificent vanishing of wealth in human history is undertaken. The majority put their trust in paper, and lost. They trusted the system after a generation of indoctrination, and were betrayed. The people were deceived on matters of money and capital, and lost both life savings and family fortunes. The American public knows very little about concepts of money and capital, and therefore will be treated to devastation. Let history judge whether it was a meretricious swing of justice. Only precious metals and certain physical assets will survive the storm.

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