Under The Surface

Thu, Apr 23, 2015 - 10:47am

While the computer-derived paper price of gold continues to be jerked around by the whims of the Forex algos, I thought I'd bring to your attention some far more important items that are bubbling just beneath the surface.

Let's start with a seemingly unrelated story. Did you see this today at ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-23/deja-deja-deja-deja-vu-mysterious-us-bond-seller It contains this chart:

Though of us who follow gold should be able to immediately recognize this for what it is, having seen it about a million freaking times through the years. NO DOUBT this is a timed algo trade, meant to influence and direct the Long Bond market. The questions become: Who and why?

  • Who? To move a market as large as the T-bond futures market, you need some real heft...this ain't your average hedge fund. Instead, this is very likely The Fed itself acting through its network of Primary Dealer accounts.
  • Why? How many times have I mentioned that The Fed can't raise short rates without the risk of flattening, or even inverting, the yield curve? Solution? If you can raise the long end by 25 bps, you can raise the short end by 25 bps, too, with no overall change to the curve.

And, to me, that is definitely what you're seeing here. A Fed, desperate to raise the Fed Funds rate in order to promote "normalcy" and "dry powder", attempting to manipulate long rates higher in order to create the "space" needed to raise the Fed Funds rate in June.

If I'm right, does that raise the risk of some "bad Fedlines" next Wednesday? Yes it does as a matter of fact. Am I worried that this may cause the computer-derived paper price of gold to fall a bit further. No I am not. Not in the least.

WHY? Keep reading...

Below are some hidden gems regarding the ongoing, global de-dollarization movement. First this from our buddy Alasdair, regarding gold, the SDR and fading dollar hegemony: https://www.financeandeconomics.org/gold-sdr-brics/

This post from two weeks ago: https://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-defiance-before-the-imf-incorporate... which references this from five years ago: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=7168919

And then this...A translation of a Russian article that discusses some statements made last week at the "Asian Davos", a "forum in Jakarta, created by Beijing as a counterweight to Western Davos, designed as a platform for the discussion of the economy in the post-American world." Though the translation is a bit jumpy, I think you'll be able to get the point: https://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-rats-are-leaving-dollar-titani...

So, again, am I worried about the short-term trends of the fiat-conversion price of gold and silver? Nope. True, I spend a lot of time and energy discussing and forecasting such things but, in the end, we must all remain focused on the MUCH BIGGER PICTURE.

To that end, I'm still excited about the role that Bullion Capital and their new allocated metal exchange can play in the new world. The CEO of Bullion Capital is Tom Coughlin and we had hoped to record an update for you today on the status of the new exchange. Unfortunately, due to his changing schedule, we've had to push back to tomorrow. In the meantime, Tom was on with Max Keiser earlier this week and the program was aired earlier today on RT. Please take the time to watch in preparation for listening to Tom and I tomorrow.

Finally...and I know it's very short notice...since I didn't schedule an A2A this week, having planned on speaking with Tom today, instead...At 1:00 pm EDT (New York time), roughly 2 hours and 10 minutes from now as I type, I'll be in the GoToWebinar "studio", fielding any and all questions from any of you who'd like to meet me there. You can do so by clicking here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2329994148146133506 If no one shows up, then I'll just ramble incoherently for a few minutes and post the recording as today's podcast.

Have a great day. Keep the faith and persevere.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 23, 2015 - 12:39pm

Apr 23, 2015 - 12:40pm

And still no one will care


$2MM+ for The Clinton Foundation...

$500M for a BillyJeff speaking appearance...

And the Russians have themselves a uranium mine.


Apr 23, 2015 - 12:57pm

Wholesaler Report

Spoke with my wholesaler today for the first time in some months. He told me that sales are very brisk. He said that he was able to maintain stock levels, but everything the mint was producing was selling. Apparently, there is a very solid appetite for silver around these price levels.

Apr 23, 2015 - 1:02pm

gotowebinar link is bad

I get an error page when I click on it.

Apr 23, 2015 - 1:05pm


although this is a few weeks old, but It is new to me.

Video unavailable
Apr 23, 2015 - 1:09pm

Go to Webinar

not working for me.

Apr 23, 2015 - 1:15pm


Has the short squeeze in silver started?

Apr 23, 2015 - 1:16pm

CEF vs SBT and CGT

As I understand it these are all run by the same group. I suspect that SBT and CGT were targeted by Sprott because they own either silver (SBT) or gold (CGT) but not both like CEF. Perhaps holding both complicates a takeover or converting them into redeemable shares like Sprott trust. Not sure.

I still have a hard time with the assertion that they are frauds if Sprott is looking to buy. They have always been at a discount to Sprott even when they were trading at a 10% premium to gold and silver during the up market a few years ago. I think this is just the redeemable feature of Sprott getting higher value. I think the fraud suggestion may have been a little gamesmanship by the suitor.

Apr 23, 2015 - 1:44pm

Is Ops Exp next Monday, April 27, and sweet spot @ 1200 as some

Is Ops Exp next Monday, April 27, and sweet spot @ 1200 as some have suggested?

Apr 23, 2015 - 1:46pm

Yep. It sure looks that way.

As close to $1200 as possible for expiration at the close on Monday.

Apr 23, 2015 - 1:48pm

S I L V E R = The Key

It's no strange anomaly that 1 of the only 2 Monetary metals in the universe is now completely ignored by the system media.

The system runs on deception and the management of perception.

TPTB are well aware of the mental frailties in human nature.

Hopes for some type of systemic solution or 'next system' are false hopes that will end in tears and busted world-views.

False hopes, the false security of group-think system narrative analysis, ...being a respecter of other people's thoughts rather than the natural monetary power of Silver. Not a good position, even with a stack.

Silver is The Key. The position from which analysis is clear, and from which charts, superstitions, and their promoters have no effect.

The time to move focus, hopes, perceptions of legitimacy, personal loyalties, fiats, etc etc OUT of the system and fully TO a physical Silver position appears quite short. Silver is not for the weak minded or faint of heart.

Apr 23, 2015 - 1:50pm

And silver option expiry

And silver option expiry sweet spot is diffuse, anywhere between $16 and $16.50.

This is due to surprisingly low open interest...which is odd, given the record high futures open interest. Goes to show you the near total ambivalence and disinterest in silver from the small spec and day trader community.

DAGEORGE42 wolfman71
Apr 23, 2015 - 1:53pm

re GTU

that's right, love it!! will close the NAV discount on CEF also. made no sense, could buy gold at 1050 with the discount essentially.

Apr 23, 2015 - 2:07pm

Thanks Craig

for your A2A today. What kind of world would it be, where freedom is a crime? Where one is considered guilty unless proven innocent?

I watched what I think is the first episode in a documentary series on China by Niall Ferguson (no relation ;^). Very informative and enlightening. Ferguson makes the point that China emphasizes that maintaining a harmonious social order trumps individual freedom... all justified to avoid social turmoil.

Alas, the scourge of such top down control systems is unbridled corruption...

Sound familiar? Are tptb following the Chinese model. If so, to what end? Rampant corruption at the top, and an attempt to make ordinary ('little') people criminals for trying to deal with each other fairly (i.e., 'black' market), independently of tptb?

Here's the youtube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKyY0u8AJL4

mike97 lund175
Apr 23, 2015 - 2:09pm

Spicer's CEF, SBT,GTU

Lund175 - Sorry I didn't mean to cast aspersions on your motives for the post(s). I am a long-term shareholder of Spice's funds and am happy to see Sprott make a run at gold fund and the silver fund which have been trading at a discount. Now we just need someone to buy CEF. There is a major proxy fight going on between Sprott and a Toronto group heading into a May meeting. I suspect that the players are publishing a lot of misinformation to try and consolidate their positions. I like Dave Kranzler but I think he has some of that misinformation on not saying where the gold is stored. The annual report says -“Gold bullion is stored on an allocated and segregated basis in the underground treasury vaults of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (the “Bank”), one of the major banks in Canada…Bullion holdings and Bank vault security are inspected annually and spot inspected periodically by Trustees and/or Officers of GoldTrust. On each occasion, inspections are required to be performed in the presence of both GoldTrust’s external auditors and Bank personnel.”

Apr 23, 2015 - 2:18pm

@Mel Re: day of reckoning


Mel posted some great charts. Looks like we are at an important inflection point with the S&P... flirting with all time highs this afternoon. Break out to the upside or double top and down down down from here? I have no f#@kin' clue anymore...

I am thinking that with what is going on with the Shanghai market that we may be in a global (Austrian economics) "crack-up boom" and that there could be incredible and astonishing further upside from here on out.

Or, just as easily, we could have an incredible and astonishing global collapse

Fish or cut bait, fish or cut bait?

Apr 23, 2015 - 2:22pm

Ugh Ugh Ugh Ugh Ugh

Apr 23, 2015 - 2:31pm

@theskier Re: Silver short squeeze

I'm watching $15.90... if Ag can convincingly break through there and then $16.00, it very well may be 'game on'

Speaking of games on, Flames Canucks play game 5 with the Flames leading 3-1. I haven't watched too much hockey this season, but these last couple of games between the Canucks and Flames have been pretty awesome. Youth v. experience, and youth is evidently (so far) clearly winning out. Johnny Gaudreau reminds me of Denis Savard, or a more talented version of Theo Flurry, and Flames 2014 first rounder Sam Bennett is playing with the savvy and poise of a grizzled veteran. Michael Ferland is a force to be reckoned with the way he's been playing the body. Brandon Bollig reminds me of a young Clark Gillies.... As much as I like the Canucks, this Flames team is one to be reckoned with... Factoids, they are now 18-2 when leading after the first period; moreover, they are the best in league at third period comeback victories.

Edit: Might the potential short squeeze break through $17.40 to invalidate the H&S?

Apr 23, 2015 - 2:33pm

MAG Silver up 8%

I don't know if we are in a silver short squeeze yet but one of my larger holdings is MAG Silver and they are up on great drilling news on a joint venture they hold with Fresnillo.

MAG Silver Corp.: Widest Intercepts to Date Extend High-Grade Valdecanas Vein to Depth

405 g/t (11.8 opt) Silver-Capped; 2.7 g/t Gold-Capped, 3.2% Lead, 4.1% Zinc, 0.37% Copper, Over 34.35 m (True Width of 26.45 m) Including: 919 g/t (26.8 opt) Silver-Capped; 4.94 g/t Gold-Capped, 5.25% Lead, 4.87% Zinc, 0.62% Copper Over 13.25 m (True Width of 10.20 m)

amarula4 TF
Apr 23, 2015 - 2:40pm

@Eric has been complaining a Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April

good so far, but I do occasionally get a 'site is greylisted' problem - goes away if I leave it an hour or so, usually

Apr 23, 2015 - 4:50pm

CEF vs SBT and CGT

Sorry I mistakenly reported Sprott was bidding for CEF rather than SBT and CGT. It was early in my time zone and I still needed my coffee fix.

There would be no reason not to go after CEF, even though it is mixed gold and silver, as one CEF share could be redeemed for both the gold and silver Sprott shares

Looking at the valuation likely explains the current move; CEF is around US$3 billion, SBT is around US$50 million and CGT is around US$850 million.

Apr 23, 2015 - 5:32pm
lund175 mike97
Apr 23, 2015 - 7:36pm


I jumped the gun as well and I agree with your last post.

I would never post misinformation on purpose.

Make a stupid mistake from time to time, guilty.

Sorry dude.

Apr 23, 2015 - 7:49pm

Golf clap

you guys are a great example of what makes this place special and I feel fortunate to be a part of it

Safety Dan
Apr 23, 2015 - 10:02pm

Day Of Reckoning?

Fellow Turdites, please read the center sign, taken from the first page of this thread. If my son or yours robs a store, he takes his life in his hands. I suggest the problem is vast and intends to cause division between the people and police force.

A Deep Look into the Shady World of the Private Prison Industry

Police Officer Slaps and Beat U S Soldier News Cast

Police Officer Slaps and Beat U S Soldier News Cast

U.S. Police Kill More Civilians in March than UK Police Killed in 100 Years


DEA Agents Caught Having Drug Cartel Funded Prostitute Sex Parties Received Slap on the Wrist; None Fired

TSA Agents Caught Gaming System so Male Screener Could Grope Attractive Passengers; No Criminal Charges Filed

The U.S. Department of Justice Handles Banker Criminals Like Juvenile Offenders…Literally


Video of the Day – Watch as 8 Police Officers Fire 46 Shots and Kill a Homeless Man in Broad Daylight

Caught on Video – LAPD Guns Down Homeless Man in Broad Daylight

57-Year-Old Michigan Man Beaten to a Bloody Pulp by Police Officer Known as “RoboCop” for Running a Red Light

Petraeus sentenced to 2 years' probation for military leak

Petraeus sentenced: 2 years probation; 0K fine

David Petraeus Is Sentenced to Probation in Leak Investigation

Others solutions:

Marine makes a point to bear arms to police officer

Marine makes a point to bear arms to police officer

Citizen Pulls Over Cop, Demands ID & It’s Amazing

Citizen Pulls Over Cop, Demands ID & It’s Amazing

Trucker Pulls Over Cop For Speeding and Gets a Confession

Trucker Pulls Over Cop For Speeding and Gets a Confession

Call the Cops - Rob Hustle ft. Bump

Call the Cops - Rob Hustle ft. Bump
Thorus Safety Dan
Apr 24, 2015 - 1:19pm

Note: Picture is a photoshopped joke

Safety Dan,

I have no issue with most of what you just posted above. But you should know that the picture of the guy holding the sign that says "No mother should have to fear for her son's life every time he robs a store" is photoshopped.


Snopes has the original picture (pre-photoshop) which not surprisingly ends with ". . . every time he leaves home"

That said, I put the photoshopped picture into a jokes file I keep - I really don't understand some of the people being lionized as heroes who were acting as thugs when they got treated the way thugs deserve to get treated when they act like thugs.

Best Regards,


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