Under The Surface

Thu, Apr 23, 2015 - 10:47am

While the computer-derived paper price of gold continues to be jerked around by the whims of the Forex algos, I thought I'd bring to your attention some far more important items that are bubbling just beneath the surface.

Let's start with a seemingly unrelated story. Did you see this today at ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-23/deja-deja-deja-deja-vu-mysterious-us-bond-seller It contains this chart:

Though of us who follow gold should be able to immediately recognize this for what it is, having seen it about a million freaking times through the years. NO DOUBT this is a timed algo trade, meant to influence and direct the Long Bond market. The questions become: Who and why?

  • Who? To move a market as large as the T-bond futures market, you need some real heft...this ain't your average hedge fund. Instead, this is very likely The Fed itself acting through its network of Primary Dealer accounts.
  • Why? How many times have I mentioned that The Fed can't raise short rates without the risk of flattening, or even inverting, the yield curve? Solution? If you can raise the long end by 25 bps, you can raise the short end by 25 bps, too, with no overall change to the curve.

And, to me, that is definitely what you're seeing here. A Fed, desperate to raise the Fed Funds rate in order to promote "normalcy" and "dry powder", attempting to manipulate long rates higher in order to create the "space" needed to raise the Fed Funds rate in June.

If I'm right, does that raise the risk of some "bad Fedlines" next Wednesday? Yes it does as a matter of fact. Am I worried that this may cause the computer-derived paper price of gold to fall a bit further. No I am not. Not in the least.

WHY? Keep reading...

Below are some hidden gems regarding the ongoing, global de-dollarization movement. First this from our buddy Alasdair, regarding gold, the SDR and fading dollar hegemony: https://www.financeandeconomics.org/gold-sdr-brics/

This post from two weeks ago: https://www.globalresearch.ca/chinas-defiance-before-the-imf-incorporate... which references this from five years ago: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=7168919

And then this...A translation of a Russian article that discusses some statements made last week at the "Asian Davos", a "forum in Jakarta, created by Beijing as a counterweight to Western Davos, designed as a platform for the discussion of the economy in the post-American world." Though the translation is a bit jumpy, I think you'll be able to get the point: https://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-rats-are-leaving-dollar-titani...

So, again, am I worried about the short-term trends of the fiat-conversion price of gold and silver? Nope. True, I spend a lot of time and energy discussing and forecasting such things but, in the end, we must all remain focused on the MUCH BIGGER PICTURE.

To that end, I'm still excited about the role that Bullion Capital and their new allocated metal exchange can play in the new world. The CEO of Bullion Capital is Tom Coughlin and we had hoped to record an update for you today on the status of the new exchange. Unfortunately, due to his changing schedule, we've had to push back to tomorrow. In the meantime, Tom was on with Max Keiser earlier this week and the program was aired earlier today on RT. Please take the time to watch in preparation for listening to Tom and I tomorrow.

Finally...and I know it's very short notice...since I didn't schedule an A2A this week, having planned on speaking with Tom today, instead...At 1:00 pm EDT (New York time), roughly 2 hours and 10 minutes from now as I type, I'll be in the GoToWebinar "studio", fielding any and all questions from any of you who'd like to meet me there. You can do so by clicking here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2329994148146133506 If no one shows up, then I'll just ramble incoherently for a few minutes and post the recording as today's podcast.

Have a great day. Keep the faith and persevere.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


ThorusSafety Dan
Apr 24, 2015 - 1:19pm

Note: Picture is a photoshopped joke

Safety Dan,

I have no issue with most of what you just posted above. But you should know that the picture of the guy holding the sign that says "No mother should have to fear for her son's life every time he robs a store" is photoshopped.


Snopes has the original picture (pre-photoshop) which not surprisingly ends with ". . . every time he leaves home"

That said, I put the photoshopped picture into a jokes file I keep - I really don't understand some of the people being lionized as heroes who were acting as thugs when they got treated the way thugs deserve to get treated when they act like thugs.

Best Regards,


Safety Dan
Apr 23, 2015 - 10:02pm

Day Of Reckoning?

Fellow Turdites, please read the center sign, taken from the first page of this thread. If my son or yours robs a store, he takes his life in his hands. I suggest the problem is vast and intends to cause division between the people and police force.

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Apr 23, 2015 - 7:49pm

Golf clap

you guys are a great example of what makes this place special and I feel fortunate to be a part of it

Apr 23, 2015 - 7:36pm


I jumped the gun as well and I agree with your last post.

I would never post misinformation on purpose.

Make a stupid mistake from time to time, guilty.

Sorry dude.

Apr 23, 2015 - 5:32pm
Apr 23, 2015 - 4:50pm

CEF vs SBT and CGT

Sorry I mistakenly reported Sprott was bidding for CEF rather than SBT and CGT. It was early in my time zone and I still needed my coffee fix.

There would be no reason not to go after CEF, even though it is mixed gold and silver, as one CEF share could be redeemed for both the gold and silver Sprott shares

Looking at the valuation likely explains the current move; CEF is around US$3 billion, SBT is around US$50 million and CGT is around US$850 million.

Apr 23, 2015 - 2:40pm

@Eric has been complaining a Submitted by Turd Ferguson on April

good so far, but I do occasionally get a 'site is greylisted' problem - goes away if I leave it an hour or so, usually

Apr 23, 2015 - 2:33pm

MAG Silver up 8%

I don't know if we are in a silver short squeeze yet but one of my larger holdings is MAG Silver and they are up on great drilling news on a joint venture they hold with Fresnillo.

MAG Silver Corp.: Widest Intercepts to Date Extend High-Grade Valdecanas Vein to Depth

405 g/t (11.8 opt) Silver-Capped; 2.7 g/t Gold-Capped, 3.2% Lead, 4.1% Zinc, 0.37% Copper, Over 34.35 m (True Width of 26.45 m) Including: 919 g/t (26.8 opt) Silver-Capped; 4.94 g/t Gold-Capped, 5.25% Lead, 4.87% Zinc, 0.62% Copper Over 13.25 m (True Width of 10.20 m)

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Apr 23, 2015 - 2:31pm

@theskier Re: Silver short squeeze

I'm watching $15.90... if Ag can convincingly break through there and then $16.00, it very well may be 'game on'

Speaking of games on, Flames Canucks play game 5 with the Flames leading 3-1. I haven't watched too much hockey this season, but these last couple of games between the Canucks and Flames have been pretty awesome. Youth v. experience, and youth is evidently (so far) clearly winning out. Johnny Gaudreau reminds me of Denis Savard, or a more talented version of Theo Flurry, and Flames 2014 first rounder Sam Bennett is playing with the savvy and poise of a grizzled veteran. Michael Ferland is a force to be reckoned with the way he's been playing the body. Brandon Bollig reminds me of a young Clark Gillies.... As much as I like the Canucks, this Flames team is one to be reckoned with... Factoids, they are now 18-2 when leading after the first period; moreover, they are the best in league at third period comeback victories.

Edit: Might the potential short squeeze break through $17.40 to invalidate the H&S?

Apr 23, 2015 - 2:22pm

Ugh Ugh Ugh Ugh Ugh

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