Guest Post: "Is The Global Financial System On The Brink Of Collapse?", by "Denver" Dave Kranzler

59
Sat, Apr 18, 2015 - 10:51am

About the only items that were UP in Friday were gold and bonds. Everything else was down sharply, including the Dow Jones average which fell by nearly 300 points. Is this just a simple, one day selloff or is something larger afoot? Our pal Denver Dave has some excellent analysis here and I strongly urge you to take the time to read this post.

Since last autumn, here at TFMR we've been discussing a pending global derivative collapse. The likelihood that the global markets can ingest a greater than 50% move down in crude oil and/or a 25% move down in the euro without triggering all sorts of derivative issues is extremely low. But you have to give these things time to play out...and eight months seems about right. Into this discussion steps Denver Dave with this astute bit of observation and analysis. PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO READ THIS AND FULLY CONSIDER THE IMPLICATIONS.

TF

"Is The Global Financial System On The Brink Of Collapse?",

by Dave Kranzler

A reverse repurchase agreement, also called a “reverse repo” or “RRP,” is an open market operation in which the Desk sells a security to an eligible RRP counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. LINKIMF tells regulators to brace for global ‘liquidity shock’ - LINK.

The financial news spin-doctors are attributing Friday’s abrupt sell-off to a report of a Bloomberg terminal outage and to a report that China has expanded its list of stocks available for shorting. This explanation for the plunge in stocks globally is so absurd it almost leaves me speechless.

I have been postulating since mid-December that the strange volatility we’ve been experiencing in the markets – combined with the most intensive effort I’ve ever seen by the Plunge Protection Team (the Fed + the Treasury’s Working Group on Financial Markets) to prop up the stock market and keep a manipulative cap on gold – is occurring because there’s is a massive derivatives melt-down going on behind the scenes. The volatility reflects the turmoil and the market intervention in stocks and precious metals reflects the effort to keep the problem covered up.

But a good friend and colleague showed me graph Friday morning that shows my thinking about a derivatives collapse may be correct – click to enlarge:

RRP

That graph shows the Fed’s Reverse Repurchase Agreement operations with foreign Central Banks and big foreign banks. A reverse repo is an operation which generally is thought of as being used as a tool to remove short term liquidity from the banking system. However, as you can see from the timing of the first massive spike up, which occurred in early September 2008, it is an absurd notion to think the Fed would have removed liquidity from the system. (Note: the second spike up in 2011 coincided with the Fed’s “Operation Twist” which was essentially a huge QE extension disguised with a “twist” – but nonetheless was done to keep the system from collapsing).

No, instead the massive operation was conducted to INJECT Treasury collateral into the global banking system. Treasuries are used as collateral against derivatives positions. It’s in a sense margin collateral for the big boys. When an entity (typically a bank or hedge fund) takes on a derivatives bet, it needs to post collateral to protect the counterparty from a decline in the value of the bet. Treasuries are the de rigeur collateral, although the ECB now allows everything for collateral except loans to lemonade stands.

When the value of the derivatives bet declines because the value of the underlying asset declines (think: Greek debt, oil debt), more collateral has to posted. Eventually, the market runs out of collateral and there’s a collateral short squeeze. The use of hypothecation exacerbates the situation by several multiples. Please note that ZeroHedge intermittently reports big spikes up in Treasury settlement fails. This reflects the extreme shortage of collateral. When collateral has been posted but not hypothecated, it can be called and used for settlement. When that Treasury has been hypothecated by the custodian of the collateral, it becomes harder to call, especially when it’s been hypothecated several times. Big spikes up in settlement fails occur.

Circling back to my postulation that a massive, ongoing derivatives melt-down has started, as the derivatives lose value, more Treasury collateral has to be posted. When the situation becomes extreme, collateral isn’t posted and counterparties begin to fail, especially if the counterparty can’t come up with the cash needed to remedy a derivatives bet gone bad. My bet is that the Greece situation ignited the problem and the collapse in the price of oil threw millions of gallons of napalm on the situation.

The reason I believe this explanation is correct, is from the graph above. We know that in 2008 we were told that a big derivatives accident started in Europe and spread to the U.S. Lehman filed for Chap 11 on Sept 11, 2008. We also know that AIG and Goldman experienced a massive counterparty default collapse in September 2008 that was remedied thanks to rather explicit lies circulated by Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson about systemic collapse if TARP wasn’t approved.

A reverse repo can be looked at as tool to remove liquidity from the system OR as a tool to inject Treasury collateral into the system. We know the Fed has been “testing” a new Reverse Repo system since mid-2013 that take Treasuries from its “SOMA” holdings (SOMA = the Treasuries the Fed purchased with QE) and use them for reverse repos, including reverse repos with MONEY MARKET FUNDS and foreign central banks/ Too Big To Fail banks. Nothing happens by accident and that spike above shows us why the Fed was “testing” a new reverse repo system.

The only reason the Fed would need to inject massive amounts of Treasuries into the global banking system is because there’s an extreme shortage. A massive derivatives accident requiring massive amounts of collateral to be posted has developed. If Treasuries are not available to post as collateral, while at the same time a massive amount of hypothecated (Treasuries out on loan, several times over) collateral fails are occurring, it will cause the banking system to seize up. The giant spike up shown in the graph above is occurring because the Fed is engaging in an enormous reverse repo operation in order to prevent the global financial system from collapsing.

Remember I suggested some time ago that the elitists like give us a warning before something bad is about to happen. As my colleague John Titus states: “the true elite aristocracy are polite criminals – they consider it gauche to flush the toilet while we’re in the shower without giving us a heads up.”

This is why the IMF issued this warning yesterday for the financial media to publish:

The so-called ‘flash crash’ on US bond markets last October and the collapse of the Swiss currency floor in January showed how quickly liquidity can vanish, acting as “a powerful amplifier of financial stability risks.” LINK: IMF tells regulators to brace for global ‘liquidity shock’

THIS is why stock markets globally sold off hard on Friday. Typically, the Plunge Protection Team will move to prop up the S&P 500 once it falls by over 1% intraday. However, on Friday, the sell-off only accelerated.

I guarantee that the reason for this is unequivocally NOT because the Chinese Government is letting the public short a few more stock issues OR because Bloomberg experienced a widespread terminal outage. But it does go a long way to explaining THIS: LINK

More great info at: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com

Follow Dave on Twitter @InvResDynamics

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  59 Comments

dale SS121
Apr 19, 2015 - 3:23pm

Illegitimate crisis?

Edit: @ SS121

I understand what you're suggesting, that the crisis is manufactured. But that makes it no less real. Regarding It's-Different-This-Time, a comment I recently read stated, "WORSE is technically different."

While I agree with your observation that TPTB are pulling infinite rabbits out of the hat, the fact remains that consequences may only be postponed. Actions become less and less effective. I'm beginning to feel that "money" to the economy is like oil to an engine (not the fuel, but the lubricant). Lack of accountability or oversight are irrelevant in the end, because all actions tend to lower the viscosity - at some point it ceases up.

Unrelated to your comment and more because I'm taking the time to lay this down - a constant irritation...

Collapse is not synonymous with deflation. Monetary deflation results in the unit of account increasing in value. The original concept belongs with sound monetary theory. It's as misleading as it is useless as we approach the of the end of the infamous Keynesian experiment. What we have now is akin to keeping score on a league note pad - and tearing out half the pages won't make the remaking marks more valuable - it's simply game over.

Collapse and hyperinflation on the horizon. Deflation was never in the cards.

Safety Dan
Apr 19, 2015 - 3:58pm
Dr. P. Metals StevenBHorse
Apr 19, 2015 - 4:22pm

@Horse. Alright, maybe I'm sick or something

i just about fell over out of the chair also, seeing that I agreed with 100% of what you just posted. Yes, I'm still in shock over this, and will shut up again now.

Safety Dan
Apr 19, 2015 - 4:29pm

"Is The Global Financial System On The Brink Of Collapse?"

Check out the Asian Bonds. Be sure to note the direction of the yield curve:

https://asianbondsonline.adb.org/japan.php

https://asianbondsonline.adb.org/philippines.php

Click the tab at the top to see other Asian Countries bonds.

Are the Asian Countries going to experience what the Fed has done here:

U.S. Treasury securities held by the Federal Reserve: Maturing in over 1 year to 5 years

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TREAS1T5

What happens when the Fed unwinds or sells these bonds into the market?

Scooter
Apr 19, 2015 - 4:30pm

Good one Safety Dan.

Good one Safety Dan. Sometimes it helps me a lot to see there's still hope. Thanks!

Safety Dan
Apr 19, 2015 - 4:32pm

98% Chance Of Financial

98% Chance Of Financial Armageddon In Coming Days

*** If you experience problem with audio, please visit our site & listen to high quality audio. The Pete Santilli Show – Full episode & audio archive: https://thepetesantillishow.com/?p=3954

Today Pete Santilli made an “early” call on the economic implosions we’ve all been fearing for the past couple years. On Friday, April 17, 2015, the DOW Jones industrials plummeted 400 points, and as Santilli states, there are anomalies which must be brought to the surface & analyzed in order figure out when the powers that be will pull the plug on our failed monetary system.

Here are a few topics to research & follow over the coming days:


Read more at https://investmentwatchblog.com/98-chance-of-financial-armageddon-in-com...

tyberious
Apr 19, 2015 - 4:35pm

Umm..

Martin I total agree! Yikes!

Income Tax Has Been Highly Destructive to Society

https://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/18/income-tax-has-been-highly-des...

Safety Dan
Apr 19, 2015 - 4:37pm

@ Scooter.. Thanks..

Good deeds are always a choice. We can help others and grow from the experience.

I don't think there is much "help" for our Financial markets..

While I still believe there is hope for a soft landing, the chances are diminish each day, as the Fed and other Central Banks prepare for the worst, instead of correcting the problems..

Marchas45
Apr 19, 2015 - 6:52pm

Well I Added Again

Just bought (10) 2oz Privateer Ultra High Relief Silver Rounds. Keep Stacking

Fred Hayek
Apr 19, 2015 - 8:34pm

@Tyberious re China and the IMF

In an interview somewhere Dave Kranzler said something that I think makes sense. He said that the chinese like to proceed on multiple tracks at the same time. If the U.S. won't let them into the IMF and won't let the renminbi be part of the SDR, then they have alternatives. But U.S. will have to directly stop them so china won't be seen as having precipitated any consequences.

In a very big picture sense it's a smart move if they're looking at the U.S. as a collapsing economic power. Why cause a conflict, why potentially be seen as the bad guy if your enemy will fall apart if you just step out of the way?

Safety Dan
Apr 19, 2015 - 11:40pm

ALL the Vaccines Are

ALL the Vaccines Are Contaminated - Every Last One of Them

S. Edmonson for Salem-News.com

"The chief, if not the sole, cause of the monstrous increase in cancer has been vaccination" - Dr. Robert Bell, once Vice President International Society for Cancer Research at the British Cancer Hospital

Vaccines

Experts say families need to take a critical look at vaccines.

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) - Have you been rushing out to get a yearly flu vaccine or diligently taking your children for the 40 or so mandated childhood vaccines?

That's really a shame because you have unwittingly been trading a run-of-the-mill flu or just the measles, for loading up your or your children's bodies with cancer and other deadly viruses, a destructive bacteria, a chemical selected to damage fertility, and with synthetic DNA that threatens to damage your own DNA - the biologic code for your existence.

Who is saying the vaccines are contaminated?

None other than the (now deceased) head of vaccines at Merck, Dr. Maurice Hillerman, who on camera admitted that Merck's Hepatitis B vaccines, contaminated with a virus, caused the AIDS epidemic in the US. He went on to say that all of Merck's vaccines are contaminated with cancer and other viruses. (The US government has conceded the HEB B vaccine causes Lupus. That vaccine is mandated for every infant in the US on the day of birth, and is associated with MS as well.)

That vaccine is mandated for every infant in the US on the day of birth, and is associated with MS as well.)

For Jews who have almost religiously believed in medical authorities about vaccines and poo-pooed those worried about the safety of vaccines, they might want to notice that Hillerman was Jewish.

Or they might recognize that so is Dr. Larry Palevsky, a board certified NY pediatrician, who for ten years routinely gave vaccines to his patients until he noticed them losing eye contact and then began looking into the vaccines he had blindly trusted. He found that they are ALL contaminated with viruses that are so small they can never be removed. He no longer gives any vaccines. He now treats his young patients for autism and other neurologic injuries from vaccines.

Donald W. Scott, the editor of The Journal of Degenerative Diseases and the co-founder of the Common Cause Medical Research Foundation, links vaccines to AIDS (as did Hillerman) and to US bio-weapons research, and says they are contaminated with mycoplasma, a primitive bacteria that takes apart cell walls.

Perhaps the highest scientific authority saying vaccines are contaminated is Garth Nicolson. He is a cell biologist and editor of the Journal of Clinical and Experimental Metastasis, and the Journal of Cellular Biochemistry. He is one of the most cited scientists in the world, having published over 600 medical and scientific peer-reviewed papers, edited over 14 books, and served on the editorial boards of 28 medical and scientific journals. He is not just saying that vaccines are contaminated with mycoplasma but is warning the US that they are. Nicolson goes further and says that we are all being damaged by them and contracting chronic degenerative diseases that.

That damage translates into lifelong patients(and thus life-long profit) for the pharmaceutical industry making the vaccines and he says doesn't appear to be accidental.

Vaccines Contaminated with Mycoplasma's - by Garth Nicolson microbiologist

Vaccines Contaminated with Mycoplasma's - by Garth Nicolson microbiologist

According To CIA Statistics: As Shots Increase, U.S. Lifespan Is DECREASING

https://www.salem-news.com/articles/november292011/vaccines-contaminated...

tyberious
Apr 20, 2015 - 12:28am

@ Safety Dan

I'm just curious as to your professional background due to your posting of issues that are related to my field.

Safety Dan
Apr 20, 2015 - 2:18am

@ Tyberious

My professional background is really simple.. jack of several trades, master of none. Owned a medical clinic for 5 years, then finished schooling in safety & risk. Loved working in heavy construction and hardrock mining for mainly PM's due to family history of both. Put them all together and you have a health conscientious, risky- but safe- construction worker, who enjoys creating PM mines.

I know, I know, I don't know Jack $hit.. blush Truth is I never met him.. wink But I do enjoy reading..

tyberious
Apr 20, 2015 - 2:26am

:)

yes

Are u mining in PH?

Safety Dan
Apr 20, 2015 - 2:31am

I'm not at the present. My

I'm not at the present. My cousin and I have a couple claims here. Still crying over my spilled milk - recently lost a very nice project to the locals.

Barfly
Apr 20, 2015 - 7:39am

Bear in mind

If there is, and I doubt there will be, any sort of melt down in the immediate future, gold and silver will go down, at least initially. That's because everything liquid that isn't nailed down will be sold to meet margin calls. Same is true for bonds. But, I honestly expect the monkeys will be out in force today to maintain the rainbows, unicorns, skittles rain, chocolate rivers, and mining the big rock candy mountain in paper fantasy land.

The Big Rock Candy Mountain

Apr 20, 2015 - 10:08am

Don't be fooled

There's a lot bubbling beneath the surface.

tyberious
Apr 20, 2015 - 10:54am

Unreal. The Fed believes its

Unreal. The Fed believes its own insolvency “would not create serious problems.”

https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/unreal-the-fed-believes-its-own-inso...

Dr. P. Metals
Apr 20, 2015 - 11:00am

RE: Fed

Now that is a very interesting nugget, that I have to comment on. That would make TONS of sense! What if they just soak up ALL debt, and declare bankruptcy, and re-org. Viola, the ponzi is "reset" with not a single bit of difference to "them"...and they can just start it all over again. Remember, they are simply a private corporation. Bankruptcy would be very simple. It happens all the time. That actually matches what they are doing in many aspects yes?

lund175
Apr 20, 2015 - 11:05am

Dr P

Anything is possible. Willie states the US has already defaulted, along with the debt clock be stopped for 10 days plus along with having a unlimited sky is the limit, budget last year.... and on... and on....


Apr 20, 2015 - 11:06am

They might be bankrupt, but will never be insolvent

"This bill is legal tender, for all debts public and private" -- or, he who owns the printing press is the one who makes the rules...

pforth
Apr 20, 2015 - 11:11am

So what's their excuse today?

I mean besides the fact it's a Sunday night... they usually have some sort of news event that they use as cover for a raid of this size. Am I missing the event or are they just hitting it for shits and giggles?

tyberious
Apr 20, 2015 - 11:18am
Marchas45
Apr 20, 2015 - 11:46am

@Tyberious

Maybe it's one way of them getting their gold back when the Gold and Silver ratio returns to normal, that's if they can find anyone selling their gold. Keep Stacking

tyberious
Apr 20, 2015 - 11:47am

From that SovMan post

Another one of those "frog in a pot" examples. This is utter madness. Just a few years ago this was laughably unthinkable nonsense. Today its "hmmm...no big deal".

Today’s policymakers believe modern economic pseudoscience as well, and they actually are implementing the ideas… like printing your way to prosperity.

These are the people who have control over your savings. Your investment returns. Your livelihood.

We’re supposed to trust that they’re good guys. That they’re smart, responsible stewards of the financial system.

And yet they think it’s perfectly fine if the issuing authority of the United States dollar is bankrupt.


Apr 20, 2015 - 12:03pm

Bill Holter's thoughts on this

This past Friday, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics put out a very thoughtful article and chart regarding the spike in "reverse repurchase agreements" RRP's held at the Fed https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/tag/reverse-repo-agreement/. The chart in question shows three very distinctive spikes,
RRP
the first was Sept. of 2008, again in 2011 and the current spike. It is Dave's contention that something behind the scenes has or is blowing up financially.
Let me explain what I believe is happening, I do not disagree with his theory but I think he may have stopped just one step short of the full story. By adding one more chart in a moment, I'll try to explain. Please read the above article as it is a good explanation of "reverse repurchase agreements" and saves me the need for a long winded rehash.
For years I have described the current financial situation as a "giant margin call" waiting to happen. The derivatives market is a zero sum game where someone wins and someone loses, the danger of course is someone losing so badly they become insolvent and cannot make payment to the "winner" ...which would make all parties a loser in the game. This is the fear, the derivatives chain
breaks somewhere along the way and creates a domino effect both upstream and downstream causing the entire credit system to lock up.
Think about what has happened over just the last six months alone. We have seen unprecedented FOREX movements. The dollar has strengthened close to 30% over this timeframe while oil has dropped about 50%. The cross between the euro and the Swiss franc saw an almost 30% move in less than 10 minutes one Monday morning in January. There have been some very big gains AND some very big losses which would explain the need for "more collateral" which is exactly what these reverse repo's provide.
Please look at the following chart:
Inline image
I believe this is "the rest of the story" as I mentioned above. You can clearly see the spikes in 2008, 2011 and again currently but "this time is different". It is different because of both size and the long lasting duration! The first chart that Dave put out on Friday was of RRP's with "Foreign Official and Institutional Accounts" whereas the chart you just looked at are "ALL" RRP's.
It is my belief the first chart's movements are a function primarily of international FOREX movements and represents "collateral demand" from the likes of Deutshebank, SocGen, Barclays etc. ...AND from The Bank of England, the ECB and other central banks. The second chart is of ALL players, not just foreign. This chart in my opinion is "how" the Fed has aided and abetted the system as a whole in "hiding" the losses from derivatives! The Fed places collateral into the system which gets lent out over and over (rehypothecated) many times and "pledged" as collateral by the loser in derivatives trades... thus the system continues "unbroken" because the collateral is put up to meet the margin calls.
Do you see? For well over a year I have wondered and even written in disbelief and amazement that no one ever admits to any large losses when in fact there had to be losses well into the multiple $ trillions! Think about it, there are almost $10 trillion worth of "dollar derivatives" outstanding, a 30% move means someone won and someone else lost about $3 trillion. I don't know of any firms that could lose even 5% of this and remain solvent, do you? And this is just "dollars", not oil, not interest rates, not equities, not iron ore, copper, gold or anything else!
If you see the buildup of RRP's over the last year+, this I believe is how the margin calls have been met and the losses hidden ...but is it even legal? In a technical and practical sense, no it is not. However, from a practical sense, if this is what is being done then we now know how no one has been declared a loser and no one has had to "book" their losses. The margin calls have been met, the positions stay open and no one is the wiser right? I do want to point out that under the rule of law, if the Fed "knows" this, it is without a doubt a criminal act. If they are doing business with bankrupt institutions, one which they know or should have knowledge of as being bankrupt, the Fed is flat out fraudulently and blatantly breaking all banking laws on the planet.
Going just a step further, if this is the case, what does it say about the Fed's own balance sheet? If they are doing swaps or RRP's with bankrupt institutions, will the Fed ever get their collateral back? As Dave Kranzler so aptly tied together, this is why the "failures to deliver" have spiked. The collateral which was originally lent out has been re lent 10 times more, or even 100 times more, who knows?
Please walk away from reading this piece with one understanding, the chart above is telling you something very big has changed and been changing for over a year. I believe it shows the system is in and has been fraudulently meeting a systemic margin call. Maybe I am wrong but I wouldn't bet on it. The chart does however give you proof beyond any doubt that "stress" of some sort has been and is building up "somewhere". The stress is now multiples of what we saw in late 2008 ...when we were only hours from the system seizing up in a giant meltdown.
I bounced this theory off of Jim Sinclair over the weekend and received a short but very enlightening reply. He said "The concept is correct. We have another OTC derivative explosion at hand but no practical way to expand liquidity. Bad derivatives never die, they just get larger". Think about what Jim is saying here, we again have an Autumn of 2008 event triggering ...only bigger! And no way to actually meet the margin calls. Each episode of QE was used to meet the margin calls and hide the losses. Each one expanded the risk while pulling more and more collateral out of the system until we reached a tipping point, NOW!
Let me finish with this one point, when this era is looked at in hindsight, "it will all be about counterparty risk". Do you know of anything without counterparty risk? Can you say G O L D? Regards, Bill Holter
Barfly
Apr 20, 2015 - 12:30pm

Its comic, you know

All these guys jumping on the whole "this is the end" train, afraid to be left out of the "I told you so" club after its all over. How many times have I heard this over the past several years? About once every six months. No stock market crash, no financial "reporters" panicked and sobbing, no crisis.

jezfry
Apr 20, 2015 - 1:30pm

Greece latest

It looks like Friday could be the very last chance to rescue the situation outside crisis measures:

https://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/greek-cash-call-critical-eurogroup/3593

lund175 TF
Apr 20, 2015 - 3:30pm

Holy SH_T Batman

Holter takes Dave's explanation one step further. You have to see the second chart he is talking about. I had to go to Miles Franklin's site as the image did not download for me. It shows 2009 & 11 being a mole hill on the graph while since the beginning 2014 it might as well be Mt. McKinley. It's a huge spike.

Me thinks the sh_t is gonna hit the fan!

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