A Couple of Positive Fundos

Fri, Apr 10, 2015 - 10:30am

For once, some fundamentals are actually making a difference in the paper gold "market" this morning. Fine with me...I'll take it. Now the question becomes, can we eek out a technically-positive close by 1:30 pm?

So, as I type, both gold and silver are near their highs of the day. I have a last in the June gold of $1208.30 and a last in the May silver of $16.59. A rally? Seriously?? Why???

  • First of all, The Pig has eased a little since reaching a high of 99.69 a few hours ago. I have a last of 99.23.
  • However, here's a fundamental factor that seems to be in play. Gold imports into India more than doubled in March vs March of 2014. The reported total for March was 125 mts. As Ruprecht would say, that's a lot. https://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/india-gold-imports-idINKBN0N11...
  • And then check this out...The Apple iWatch, fancy-schmancy gold edition, completely sold out in China within an hour of its introduction and release. These babies were selling at about $20,000 or 127,000 yuan and they were all gone inside of an hour. Maybe Apple really will soak up 400 mts of gold in selling these things?!? https://www.businessinsider.com.au/apple-watch-edition-sold-out-in-china...

So, now, here we go into the weekly close. Last Thursday, gold closed at $1201. This means that, after all the angst and grinding of teeth this week, we actually have a chance now to paint a green weekly candle onto the chart. Additionally and far more importantly, gold actually has a chance now to make a weekly close above its key moving averages. For the June contract, the 50-day MA is $1204 and the 100-day is near $1211. Again, closing above there...on a Friday no less...would be encouraging so watch these levels closely today.

And there are several levels to watch in silver, too. We've been as high this morning as $16.65 (hmmm, where have we seen that level before?). Closing above this level would be very nice and would make Turd happy. Of course, the same MAs are far more important and, conveniently, a somewhat lower bar. For the May contract, the 50-day is $16.53 and the 100-day is $16.60. After all we've been through this week, including the 6% intra-week decline, to still eek out a weekly close above those two MAs would be a very encouraging signal.

So hang in there and keep the faith while we see what the rest of the day brings. I'll be adding thoughts to this thread as the morning goes along and we'll have a full podcast summary and review later this afternoon.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 139


SilverX3 · Apr 10, 2015 - 4:16pm

Turd, it's possible that wave

Turd, it's possible that wave #1 advance has not finished, if we compare the current 3-wave advance to the Nov-Jan rally.

Nov 2014 - Jan 2015

Wave #1 UP - Nov 7 to Dec 9 - 1130 to 1239 - 1 month

Wave #2 DOWN - Dec 10 to Dec 24 - 1238 to 1172 - 2 weeks

Wave #3 UP - Dec 25 to Jan 23 - 1175 to 1308 - 1 month

Mar 2015 - ? 2015

Wave #1 UP - March 17 to April ? - 1142 to ? - 1 month?

Just saying perhaps your original target of the 200 DMA for gold at 1235-1240 range is still a potential top for wave #1 UP leg.

Barfly · Apr 10, 2015 - 4:23pm

Andrew Macguire Opens his mouth....


Says that bullion banks are about to default.

Prediction: Gold is going back to test 1140 - 1150 lows and Silver will go back to $14.75-14.40 area. Perhaps this will mark a double bottom for both? Obviously, Macguire's masters are/ are prepared to go massively short paper, and he's trolling for suckers to go long based on his dire predictions. 

Time will tell if I'm correct. He might be right this time, and I could be wrong, but I'm basing my assertions here on his track record. Remember the last time when he said that "massive sovereign buyers were putting a floor of 1220 under the gold price?" So, based on the preponderance of evidence that Agent Andy is up to his old bag of tricks, I'm willing to go out on a limb, here.

StevenBHorse · Apr 10, 2015 - 4:26pm

You got some sort of beef with AM?

I haven't read a good rant against him in a couple of weeks. 

And yes I'm being sarcastic. And yes I am an asshole. 

Mickey · Apr 10, 2015 - 4:35pm

double bottom

go look at the charts and narrative by Morris Hubbard at 321gold.com

he is bullish fundamentally and technically.

James Dines who has some real good experience, is saying gold is just setting up for its next bull move to 3k to 5k.

joeblack StevenBHorse · Apr 10, 2015 - 4:36pm

My beef with AM is...

I lost a lot of money using his trading service...

He would never tell you where to put a stop loss, he would just say put on a plain vanilla option hedge when the trade went bad and not even tell you how to put the hedge on.

Maybe this time he's right.

Barfly · Apr 10, 2015 - 4:40pm

So long as you own it, Horse

The guys obviously a disinformation hack. I'll defer to Silver is Money's definative post on the evidence. So, I thought it would be fun to make predictions based off of taking the opposite approach to everything the guy says. It's probably a better strategy for making forecasts than most. You could even track my accuracy if you want. I'm all for empirical evidence.

Agent Andy also has yet to find another financial journalist to rewrite and publish his expose on the rigged silver market that includes the screen shots of the trading platforms used to manipulate the market. My prediction is that it will never see the light of day. It is my belief that his activities along such lines are intended and designed to prevent the truth from coming out. He's done far more damage through misinformation than he has ever produced anything constructive. As I said at the beginning of this post, he's obviously somebody's disinformation hack.

mike97 · Apr 10, 2015 - 4:55pm

COT REport


Massive (27K contracts) switch from Gold long to short by the commercials. Silver similar to last week.

joeblack · Apr 10, 2015 - 4:56pm

I don't think AM is a disinfo agent...

...any more than Eric King is.

They just only see one side of the gold market and talk their own book. 

Again, I could be wrong.

SS121 · Apr 10, 2015 - 5:23pm


Maybe Agent Andy is sounding the bell for what will be a false flag (manufactured) default. to try and swing the world's silver and gold price control devices over to China(?) and away from the USD.

All contrived, just have to keep watching. My Agent Andy analysis is consistent with yours and SIMs. And it hasn't changed since April 5th 2012!! Back then he was telling everybody that "All the silver is going to China". ...that's been a long time now, wonder if it ever "All Got There"? lol, what a joke.

And as i always try and remember to add, it's nothing personal against Agent Andy, we're all God's kiddies, including the paper system's misinfo agents.

Joseph Warren · Apr 10, 2015 - 5:36pm

@joeblack - I agree with you . . .

that people talk up their own book, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. 

I believe PMs are one of the assets that people should have to help protect themselves during the breakdown of the fiat Ponzi system. If someone asked me for my opinion, that's what I'd tell them. Some might say I'm talking my book.

There are those who don't like the miners. They sell the physical. Is that because they are talking their book or is it because how they view those two assets ?

No one has a crystal ball. I can't read their minds and can't speak to their motivations. And in the end it doesnt matter - only the end results. We make our own decisions and lose or gain based on that. Undoubtedly there are those who might call any pro PM website a 'scam' filled with 'fear mongering types', - that is 'gold bugs' !

arch stanton · Apr 10, 2015 - 5:43pm

I'm sure

I'm not the only one who remembers Andy stating with total certainty that gold would never trade below 1700 again. That was on KWN in the fall of '11. Obviously he was wrong. Does that make him evil? We are all entitled to our own opinion but I think he just severely underestimated the lengths that TPTB would, and more importantly could, go to smother the price of PM's. The whole PM space has become a surreal world of black is white and it's taken a fair amount for logical people to wrap their heads around that fact. I'm sure that most of you have noticed that our fearless peerless leader is becoming quite a master of reading these deranged tea leaves. I only hope it hasn't caused him permanent brain damage.

AIJ SS121 · Apr 10, 2015 - 5:49pm

All God's Kiddies / I would have to disagree

As Jesus said to the Pharisees,

"...you are of your father the devil" John 8:44

"Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it."

Liars and Murders, reminds me of someone ( or more, in a place of power perhaps, who likes to shoot down airplanes of women and children........or likes to wage war killing innocents to attain control, or killers of.... )

Oh forget it. The list is way too long.

We all die and face our maker. Count on it. 

benque · Apr 10, 2015 - 5:53pm

I have a bad feeling about the US Prez campaign

having just seen hitlery officially launch her candidacy. Another teflon clinton, who will mysteriously catch the flu for every crisis that comes along during her term, if elected. "You can't blame me, I was sick! (sniffle, sniffle)."

The last time I had any respect for her, I was a sheep. With considerable embarrasment, I remember those dim days of misperception and blissful ignorance.

Joseph Warren · Apr 10, 2015 - 5:55pm

@ arch stanton - good point

and I am sure that many of us here think gold will 'never' drop below $ 1000 (I'm of that camp)

But what if it does ?

Given that No One really knows how much gold is out there or what schemes the crooksters will come up with, who the hell knows ?

"Ya place yer bets, and take yer chances"

P.S. - Craig provides technical analysis of the PM market. I come here for that & for his sense of humor. I no longer subscribe to any other TA site. - - The charts & COT reports may be a complete illusion with absolutely no basis in reality or predictive power for the future. - Beats me if this is the case or not. I know the score & won't blame Turd if the PMs dont go up. - And I'll keep all my gains if they do.

Barfly · Apr 10, 2015 - 6:31pm

@ arch

I remember Jim Sinclair saying that triple bottom around 1525 was the absolute floor. But, I don't think he's a shill. He hasn't consistently put out misleading statements or failed to deliver or follow through on grandiose claims. AUAGforever mentioned the bible. I believe that somewhere in there it says something like "you shall know them by their works." AM somehow keeps getting a platform to put out garbage and amazingly, nobody ever challenges him on his BS. I'm still waiting on the all physical exchange that's been talked about for years that's going to break the CRIMEX. I don't think its coming. Nothing changes until the system breaks.

SS121 · Apr 10, 2015 - 7:54pm


Those particular children you refer to had been claiming to be descendants of Abraham when they were actually descendants of Cain. (Just as many of Cain's descendants today claim a false ancestry)

But please see Ezekiel 18.2-4 as to everyone's ultimate ownership.

...and now back to preparing for the end of the great Cainesian experiment. what a coincidence winkhuh?

canary · Apr 10, 2015 - 8:06pm


Surreal PM world, fearless peerless leader, deranged leaves....Great. Not talking about merits, but the style...gave me good dose of humor for the day. Thanks.

Dingo · Apr 10, 2015 - 8:27pm

My notes

My GOFO cheat notes. The interest rate for borrowing gold is called the gold lease rate or gold libor. It is expressed in terms of gold payable in gold on a yearly basis of 360 days. GOFO is the net interest rate which one would lend gold and borrow USD. GOFO = USD interest rate - gold lease rate / 1 + gold lease rate x days/360. Alternatively can be the difference between the USD rate and the GLR. GOFO = USD interest rate - gold lease rate. Front month gold futures CME code GC1 London fix at 10:30 am and 3 pm. Analogous to a fixed interest rate. ie sourcing LBMA bars at next fix price. GOFO rates were set at midday GMT. Hypothesis for calculating GLR/GOFO ? Inputs 1) Spread between London am fix and GC1 at 10:30 GMT. 2) Libor rate at 10:30 GMT 3) US T-Bill rate.

AIJ SS121 · Apr 11, 2015 - 9:54am

John 3:36 Tells you who the children of God are.

"He who believes in the Son has eternal life; but he who does not obey the Son will not see life, but the wrath of God abides on him."

Orange · Apr 12, 2015 - 10:47am

The US is Exceptional - right!

You have just got to love this. Russia, China and Indian get their citizens out of Yemen while the US evacuate diplomats and dumps their citizen. Well, I guess the diplomats were lucky, the last time, in Libya they were left to die. 


Safety Dan · Apr 12, 2015 - 2:06pm

46 Ukrainian banks declare insolvency

46 Ukrainian banks declare insolvency

Managing Director of the Ukrainian Deposit Insurance Fund Konstantin Woruschilin said 46 banks in the country have declared insolvency, pointing to a number of contributing factors to the high number of bankruptcy, Russia-based Sputnik news agency reported on Saturday.

Woruschilin said the main factor is “the immoral behavior of bank managers,” with a number of cases involving bank employees stealing money for personal purposes.


WHAT?? They are worried about their immoral behaving bank managers... And nothing is done about these A$$hats? 

Revealed – the capitalist network that runs the world

AS PROTESTS against financial power sweep the world this week, science may have confirmed the protesters' worst fears. An analysis of the relationships between 43,000 transnational corporations has identified a relatively small group of companies, mainly banks, with disproportionate power over the global economy.

The top 50 of the 147 superconnected companies

1. Barclays plc
2. Capital Group Companies Inc
3. FMR Corporation
4. AXA
5. State Street Corporation
6. JP Morgan Chase & Co 
7. Legal & General Group plc 
8. Vanguard Group Inc
10. Merrill Lynch & Co Inc 
11. Wellington Management Co LLP
12. Deutsche Bank AG
13. Franklin Resources Inc
14. Credit Suisse Group
15. Walton Enterprises LLC
16. Bank of New York Mellon Corp
17. Natixis
18. Goldman Sachs Group Inc
19. T Rowe Price Group Inc
20. Legg Mason Inc
21. Morgan Stanley
22. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc
23. Northern Trust Corporation
24. Société Générale
25. Bank of America Corporation
26. Lloyds TSB Group plc 
27. Invesco plc
28. Allianz SE 29. TIAA 
30. Old Mutual Public Limited Company
31. Aviva plc 
32. Schroders plc
33. Dodge & Cox
34. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc*
35. Sun Life Financial Inc
36. Standard Life plc
37. CNCE
38. Nomura Holdings Inc
39. The Depository Trust Company 
40. Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance 
41. ING Groep NV 
42. Brandes Investment Partners LP 
43. Unicredito Italiano SPA 
44. Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan 
45. Vereniging Aegon 
46. BNP Paribas 
47. Affiliated Managers Group Inc 
48. Resona Holdings Inc 
49. Capital Group International Inc 
50. China Petrochemical Group Company

* Lehman still existed in the 2007 dataset used

Graphic: The 1318 transnational corporations that form the core of the economy

And the study: The Network of Global Corporate Control


The structure of the control network of transnational corporations affects global market competition and financial stability. So far, only small national samples were studied and there was no appropriate methodology to assess control globally. We present the first investigation of the architecture of the international ownership network, along with the computation of the control held by each global player. We find that transnational corporations form a giant bow-tie structure and that a large portion of control flows to a small tightly-knit core of financial institutions. This core can be seen as an economic “super-entity” that raises new important issues both for researchers and policy makers.


Edit: The BIS is researching its 'immoral behaving bank managers', I'm sure they didn't know :


Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers (Working Paper)

I'm sure the BIS didn't know they caused the US & World's financial crisis.

Safety Dan · Apr 12, 2015 - 2:20pm

Monsanto knew of glyphosate /

Monsanto knew of glyphosate / cancer link 35 years ago

Date Added to website 8th April 2015 


Monsanto knew of glyphosate / cancer link 35 years ago


GM-Free Cymru Special Report

8th April 2015

According to evidence unearthed from the archives of the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) in the United States, it has been established that Monsanto was fully aware of the potential of glyphosate to cause cancer in mammals as long ago as 1981.

Recently the WHO's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) issued a statement in which glyphosate (the main component of Roundup herbicide) was classified as "probably carcinogenic" to humans and as "sufficiently demonstrated" for genotoxicity in animals (1). This announcement of a change to toxicity class 2A was given vast coverage in the global media, causing Monsanto to move immediately into damage limitation mode. The corporation demanded the retraction of the report, although it has not yet been published! Predictably, there was more fury from the industry-led Glyphosate Task Force (2). This Task Force also sponsored a "rebuttal" review article (3) from a team of writers with strong links with the biotechnology industry; but because of the clear bias demonstrated in this paper (which suggests that glyphosate has no carcinogenic potential in humans) it is best ignored until it has been carefully scrutinized by independent researchers (4).

See More Here:


Safety Dan · Apr 12, 2015 - 2:25pm
tyberious · Apr 12, 2015 - 3:11pm
tyberious · Apr 12, 2015 - 3:13pm

How Math Was Taught in

You had me until #5.

I'm no bleeding heart liberal but if we want a planet of nothing but humans, then we should keep doing what we are doing.

benque · Apr 12, 2015 - 4:28pm

Teaching Math in the 21st Century

A logger sells a truckload of lumber for $50,000
His cost of production is 7/5 of the price.
If the cost of credit for cash flow to pay his workers, to produce the truckload is 4/5 of the price,
and the interest on the loans for the cost to buy his equipment is 3/5 of the price,
and the myriads of taxes related to producing the truckload are 3/5 of the price;
How long will it be before the banksters foreclose on his business, and steal all his assets?
Auxillary question:
What size political bribe, at what rate of credit interest cost will be required to ensure
that the logger's business will survive long enough to produce the next truckload of lumber?

Safety Dan · Apr 13, 2015 - 1:39am

Oncologists Reveal Reasons

Oncologists Reveal Reasons for High Cost of Cancer Drugs in the US, Recommend Solutions 
See the article and video.

Article is from Mayo Clinic Proceedings 


highlight image


Why Are Cancer Drugs So Expensive?  Author Video

Although 85% of cancer research is taxpayer funded, Americans with cancer pay 50% to 100% more for the same patented drug than patients in other countries.

Big Pharma's exorbitant cancer drug prices are due to corrupt monopolies, not development costs, study shows


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