For once, some fundamentals are actually making a difference in the paper gold "market" this morning. Fine with me...I'll take it. Now the question becomes, can we eek out a technically-positive close by 1:30 pm?
So, as I type, both gold and silver are near their highs of the day. I have a last in the June gold of $1208.30 and a last in the May silver of $16.59. A rally? Seriously?? Why???
- First of all, The Pig has eased a little since reaching a high of 99.69 a few hours ago. I have a last of 99.23.
- However, here's a fundamental factor that seems to be in play. Gold imports into India more than doubled in March vs March of 2014. The reported total for March was 125 mts. As Ruprecht would say, that's a lot. https://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/india-gold-imports-idINKBN0N11...
- And then check this out...The Apple iWatch, fancy-schmancy gold edition, completely sold out in China within an hour of its introduction and release. These babies were selling at about $20,000 or 127,000 yuan and they were all gone inside of an hour. Maybe Apple really will soak up 400 mts of gold in selling these things?!? https://www.businessinsider.com.au/apple-watch-edition-sold-out-in-china...
So, now, here we go into the weekly close. Last Thursday, gold closed at $1201. This means that, after all the angst and grinding of teeth this week, we actually have a chance now to paint a green weekly candle onto the chart. Additionally and far more importantly, gold actually has a chance now to make a weekly close above its key moving averages. For the June contract, the 50-day MA is $1204 and the 100-day is near $1211. Again, closing above there...on a Friday no less...would be encouraging so watch these levels closely today.
And there are several levels to watch in silver, too. We've been as high this morning as $16.65 (hmmm, where have we seen that level before?). Closing above this level would be very nice and would make Turd happy. Of course, the same MAs are far more important and, conveniently, a somewhat lower bar. For the May contract, the 50-day is $16.53 and the 100-day is $16.60. After all we've been through this week, including the 6% intra-week decline, to still eek out a weekly close above those two MAs would be a very encouraging signal.
So hang in there and keep the faith while we see what the rest of the day brings. I'll be adding thoughts to this thread as the morning goes along and we'll have a full podcast summary and review later this afternoon.