Killing Time

Thu, Mar 5, 2015 - 10:40am

One look at these updated charts and you'll see why there's really not much to discuss this morning.

I mean, seriously, what else is there to say this morning? When not even the ECBQ€ stuff can budge price out of these corners, you know just how carefully these pennants are being painted. Please click the gold chart in the left and look at how precise this is. Absolutely remarkable!

So, really, the only thing I'd like to discuss this morning is the clip below. Perhaps, before you watch it, you should go back and read Part Two of the essay series that Jim Quinn published last week:

Not only is a 7-year auto loan a bad idea, a 7-year auto loan where you roll the amount you're "underwater" into your new loan is a even worse idea. To then have these loans packaged together and sold off in tranches as AAA-rated collateralized debt obligations is a nightmare we've seen before and a truly horrific idea.

And now comes this...a discussion on CNBS as to whether someone should take out an extended car loan and use the extra debt assumed to dabble in the stock market, all because a "diversified portfolio should return in excess of 3-4% over time". And to think, I'm the one vilified and despised in some corners of the internet because I've had the audacity to suggest that folks continue to add physical metal while prices have declined these past three years...

Anyway, this is a sure sign of an impending stock market collapse. How can I say this? Because this is the exact same type of discussions that dominated the financial press in late 1999 and early 2000! Back then it was "take out a home equity loan" and/or "get a cash advance on your credit card" and buy tech stocks. Don't you realize that the NASDAQ was up 80% last year? This is easy and anyone with just a few extra minutes of time per day should be able to double their money really quick and then pay back all of the fresh debt. Just buy a good diversified portfolio with names like Lucent, Level 3, Worldcom, InfoSpace and JDS Uniphase.


As I go to close, I see that price has suddenly popped $5 and it is slightly outside of the pennant. While this is certainly not a bad thing, don't go getting all excited about a positive resolution just yet. There will be all sorts of false breakouts and breakdowns today and overnight as the pennant closes to zero. Nothing is permanent until 8:30 tomorrow.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 6, 2015 - 4:58am


@ Turd

I just send the link to Tyler over email. Let's see what he thinks...

Mar 5, 2015 - 6:49pm

I think slight to firm upward bias

Agree COT has been washed and RSI is oversold so think we will get some upside just don't know if it will close up. Seems to be a pretty good floor around 1197. Keep thinking they are going to let it run up again so they can try and fleece the sheep later. That said I do think their rope is getting shorter by the day and the East especially India is coming on in spite of being disappointed with no duty reduction.

I think like oil prices going down to far now dollar getting to strong...both going to hurt more by the day. Lots of blow off to be gained with an up day gold, down dollar, sideways to up on oil&gas

Mar 5, 2015 - 6:02pm

To me, it's just like keeping

To me, it's just like keeping price above the 200-day MA for the six trading days before last month's that when it breaks, it causes maximum psychological and technical impact.

Again, though, it could go either way. The CoT has been washed and there are more short-term momo shorts right now than longs so this could all be a squeeze for $20, too.

I discuss this further and project how the charts might look by tomorrow at this time in today's podcast.

Mar 5, 2015 - 5:48pm

Down from pennant because Martin Armstrong says so

Just testing if this site isn't hacked, and if it is really not possible to get minus X hat tips!

Mar 5, 2015 - 5:40pm

Question for you Turd

Turd, can you explain the significance of keeping the chart painted within the pennant and why time it so it ends right at the blbs? why not just let it fall freely if that's what they want? is it the act of stealth for them? do they capitalize more this way?

Mar 5, 2015 - 5:07pm

Lund175 Not a Malgrem fan either

My real reason was to highlight Paul Volker's comments on John Williams Shadow Stats being the "real deal" in reporting the inflation statistics. To me that is highly significant that Volker would step out and call BS on the Feds current 2.2% inflation. Especially because of how much cred that gives John's work. I bought my first house in Naperville IL.(Jan/1982). when he was Fed Chair interest rates were 17% and I held out for a 5 year ballon at 12.9% now my brother in KC is building a house with a 3% loan. Never thought I would see that rate. I just last week sent in my last zero coupon muni bond I bought during those days just $5000 face left and not getting full payout but it was 12% tax free Tampa Florida Housing. Partial default so I'm only getting $750. It had been called several times after the first call date in 2004. Imagine they took a hickey on that issue due to re-financings. I saw her interview on King World and thought she was being way to optimistic on the economy getting better. I seem to remember she was pretty insistent on it. Would agree with the Rickards comparison too they all try and walk a little on both sides of the line. Seems to be the politically correct thing to do and is acceptable protocol in their world. Probably gives them some ability to justify other comments as part of a give and take. I don't like it either but seems to be the way it is.

Mar 5, 2015 - 4:42pm

@ Kansascrude

I would not trust Malgrem for a second. Not even 6 months ago she was pounding the table how great the U.S. was doing, how rosy the future looked and never a negative word. Now after the New Year she seems to have flipped a 180.

She reminds me of a female version of Rickards. Great to listen too but something does not add up.

renozepIceberg Slim
Mar 5, 2015 - 4:29pm

@ Iceberg

Up .

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KansascrudeDoctor J
Mar 5, 2015 - 3:48pm

What you say Dr. J

Got to admit your thoughts pretty close to mine. Spent a good 30 minutes on the phone today with my biz accountant who is very like minded on our dilemma. We have both withdrawn from a very aggressive takin it to the streets posture over the last several years of trying to get friends and family on board. We have had some but pretty limited success. Where we left it was your comment "How much time is really left" We have been blown away but the rapid succession of events since Q4 last year. We compare notes at least once a week and the frenetic pace of deterioration and the panic mode exhibited by TPTB in response. If the frog is still in the pot he is seeing some big ass bubbles going by! Chances are he is getting "Cooked" and his reaction time is rapidly steaming away. Buddy has been the campaign mgr for our current Mayor for several years including a recent unsuccessful run for a County Commissioners job. Mayor mid 70's holds court at one of the local MickieDs on Saturday mornings. This is middle class suburban town of around 25K. His comments are the economy is not better its worse, people are stretched economically, recovery hope is fading, and the number of people believing the propaganda is declining and is picking up steam. Confusion on what to do is starting to turn to fear as they are now becoming convinced they are being lied to.... This is totally disconcerting to them especially the retired females. They are resistant to hearing the whole story as they can't believe its that bad. They feel deserted by the media and politicians. This is mainly what we call the next group of citizens that is they are typically more engaged than the average Joe but still dependent rather than proactive in gaining information. What to do? I have had so much rejection in trying to get folks on board I have lost my zeal. As we all know its not a comfortable discussion to have with most folks and being called a crackpot is only fun once in awhile. Congrats on your bug out buy hope it works out well for you and for sure it will keep you real busy! Never seem to have enough preps or $$ to do what you want. I have been saving for a geothermal system for awhile and need to get it done before the 30% tax credit expires in 2016 a solar assist would be good too and also tax incented. Still digging in! KC

Mar 5, 2015 - 3:34pm

IMHO / PM's next move

1. If they smash tomorrow then the desire is to crash the PM's and the entire system.

2. If we bounce then allowing a managed restart of the PM Bull is the plan

Analysis: # 2 makes more logical sense but, Psychopaths would be all over # 1

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