The Fog of War

Sun, Mar 1, 2015 - 3:14pm
War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.

-- Carl von Clausewitz

Vault subscribers know that I've been writing about events in the Ukraine for a while now. I've also been doing a lot of digging and reading, trying to make sense of exactly what's going on there as well as what's happening between the U.S. and Russia. I've found a lot of things that are worthy of your consideration, regardless what you already think about the war in Ukraine or which side you feel is morally "right". None of this is inside knowledge--anyone can find this information if they ask the right questions and look in the right places. Neither are these things some crazy conspiracy theory which requires huge leaps of the imagination. And so, based on a suggestion by JY896, Turd has graciously allowed me the opportunity to present these things in a semi-regular blog format for the consideration and discussion for all of Turdville.

This is also the umpteenth time I've tried to write this article. The problem is, that the full magnitude of what is happening is too big--too sophisticated--to cover in one, brief article. As I've joked before, it's a VERY big rabbit hole. To say that I've agonized as to what and how to present these things would be a gross understatement. There's also the delicate matter the conflict's nature. This is because we are in the middle of a very real information and psychological war between two of the world's largest powers. And as I understand the conflict, BOTH sides view the war as an existential struggle--and both sides are playing deceptively and unethically.

Please understand that a large-scale, well-organized information war has no clearly-delineated battlefields and the targets in such a war are the hearts and minds of everyone on the planet. The world has never seen this type of warfare--on this scale--with these technological resources. In this type of war, words and ideas are the new bombs and bullets and can be more effective than a hundred laser-guided bombs delivered perfectly to their targets. Traditional, alternate, and social media become the territories where battles are fought and attacks are launched. Counterfeit realities and their development in popularly-accepted memes are the new "campaigns." Both sides employ counter-measures against attacks which results in twisted, half-truths and partial realities that take on lifes of their own. Thus, it's critically important that you take great care in discussing the war, the attacks, the strategies, lest you become a proxy fighter who unwittingly furthers one side or the other's objectives.

Again, both sides are already engaged in this new war. As an example from the "innocent" Russian side, consider the following quote from one of the most popular Pro-Russian/Novorussian bloggers, "Colonel Cassad" (a.k.a. Boris Rozhin):

“I think in the future [the Kremlin] will slowly reveal other details of the invisible but effective work of Voentorg, when the northern wind brought junta forces to a severe military catastrophe."

“I hope now my post from August will be more clear. Then I could only speak in those terms, today I can say more, and in a few months and even years even more will be told. It is difficult to keep quiet, when you know about such things and people are asking – where did the new [armored fighting vehicle] come from or “what is that in the background of that video?” But you have to understand, that one has to keep quiet until the time comes, due to information war and military secrets. In reality those who fought in Donbass, and those who helped with logistics sooner or later learned about Voentorg and its functions such things which are not shown on TV or online. This is part of ‘hybrid’ and ‘web-centric’ (net-centric) wars, which Russia is learning today, when information cover becomes one of the important parts of military planning. Americans are pros in this, but Russia for the most part is learning from them, and the war in Georgia, and Crimean spring, and Voentorg in Novorossia show that from a purely military perspective, our army is learning fast, although there are mistakes, problems and shortcomings. And the main thing – officially there was never a Russian army on the territory of DPR and LPR.

So in addition to my usual “Ukraine Updates”, my intent with this blog is to objectively explore the “Who? What? Why? How? and To what end?” of this war. Some of the topics that I already plan to cover (in no particular order):

  • The U.S. and Russian geo-strategies that have inevitably clashed in Ukraine
  • Eurasianism and the spiritual and esoteric foundations of this fascist movement
  • The not-so-innocent beginnings of “Novorussia” and the Donetsk/Lugansk Republics
  • Hybrid, psychological, information and net-centric warfare and how both sides use these
  • The “arab spring/color revolution” tactic

I'm not trying to withhold information from you, tease you or make you dependent on me or this site for information. I have a young family and a day job that are my priorities. So, please, feel free to read-ahead and follow some of the following breadcrumbs: Look into the Rasputin-esque Aleksandr Dugin and read what Russian military officers studied in Dugin's 1992 book "The Great War of Continents" or his 1997 book "Foundations of Geopolitics". Do a word-search in the last book as well as Brzezinksi's 1997 book "The Grand Chessboard" for the word "Ukraine". Check into the ultra-nationalist, neo-fascist, and cult-like underpinnings of the Eurasian movement. Combine some of the early Novorussian leaders names with Dugin and see what Sergeant Google will return. Just guard yourselves. Resist the temptations to choose a side. Heed my warning above about being a proxy fighter.

My desire is to objectively present the things that I've found. I don't want to convince anyone. I'm not "pro" either side. I just want to relay what I see from this corner of the watchtower.

"But if the watchman see the sword come, and blow not the trumpet, and the people be not warned; if the sword come, and take any person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood will I require at the watchman's hand."

What you do with this is up to you.

Welcome to the fog of war.

About the Author


Mar 1, 2015 - 3:24pm

Thak you, SS

Your contributions are extremely valuable and all of Turdville appreciates your efforts!

Mar 1, 2015 - 3:41pm


Congratz on your promotion to post writer!

Thank you and Boomer Sooner!!!

Mar 1, 2015 - 3:54pm

O! Yea!

Beat Silver66 Now to read.

Thank you Sooner for a great introduction, I for one am not taking sides either and I am looking forward to reading your blogs when they are posted here. Thank You Sir, Charlie

Mar 1, 2015 - 3:58pm

Great to see you onboard!

Great introduction, I look forward to reading many more. My only admonition is that even deciding to try to stay neutral is taking a side, not to mention endeavoring to uncover the truth of what is happening on either / both sides... Thanks for climbing the ladder to the tower, and sharing your views from up there. Like you, I believe this war to be (one of) the generation/century-shaping events of our time. Sticking one's head in the sand is NOT a viable option. There is a PDF version of Brzezinski's book here: Carroll Quigley's 'Tragedy and Hope' is a widely cited work that shows some remarkable prescience as well -- PDF here:

Mar 1, 2015 - 3:58pm

@Silver Sooner

I'm hooked!! When is the next episode?

Mar 1, 2015 - 4:31pm

Thank you...

Silver Sooner, thank you so much for putting in the research time and sharing your knowledge with us! I am thankful for the brave men here who are stepping up as watchmen. Many, many thanks and may ears and hearts be open.

Mar 1, 2015 - 4:57pm


Thanks much, Silver Sooner. Your invaluable posts and insight are most appreciated by this Turdville resident.

Mar 1, 2015 - 4:57pm

Most excellent

Great stuff, looking forward to seeing how this develops over time. I'm grateful for the vision of both yours and Turd's that created this spot in Turdville.

Kudos to both of you. I look forward to our live listen of SFC/JB on Tuesday.

Great title as well.

Mr. Fix
Mar 1, 2015 - 5:19pm

Rabbit hole exploration:

Tricky business,

but well worth the effort. Keep them coming, it would be good theater if there weren't so many dead people involved…

Mar 1, 2015 - 5:35pm

Thanks SilverSooner

For striving for the essence of "fair and balanced." Looking forward to keeping up!

Another great addition to Turdville (er, Craig's Casbah, Henke's Harbor? :^))

New additions to the top of my reading list:

"The Great War of Continents"

"Foundations of Geopolitics"

"The Grand Chessboard" (thanks for the pdf link JY)

Mar 1, 2015 - 6:19pm

Thanks Silver Sooner

I pray all your family and friends remain safe for the duration of the conflict. I also hope there are many men like you that can rebuild the country when all is done. Thanks for your insights Silver66 on a lighter note, you got me this time Marchas45 but I will be nimble tomorrow morning!!

Mar 1, 2015 - 6:47pm

PCR addresses Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow

Address to the 70th Anniversary of the Yalta Conference, Hosted by Institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Moscow, February 25, 2015, Hon. Paul Craig Roberts

Silver Sooner, looking forward to your further writing. Thank you for your efforts!

Mar 1, 2015 - 6:50pm

Thanks everyone

Tyberious, I'm 99.9% certain that the next episode is going to be about Dugin and Eurasianism. It's probably the most important "dot" that isn't being talked about, even by Cohen. It's also the legitimate reason that the US/UK are so spooked by Russian re-emergence and so hell-bent on stopping it. Right now, I'm thinking of writing it in 2 posts with the second part looking at Dugin's ties to the first Novorussian leaders (and Strelkov of Slavyansk fame). But I may go right into Brzezinski and how the two geo-strategies led to an inevitable collision in Ukraine. So, with the SBC-JB podcast on Wednesday, I'm targeting Friday night or Saturday morning as this next one needs maximum attention. Fighting is probably not going to start for another month or two, and I want to get through the topics above before the conventional war starts up again. This week is going to be interesting to see what developments there are wrt the IMF's loan plans for Kiev.

Mar 1, 2015 - 7:04pm

False flag assassination

Here is a comment from George Washingtons post on ZH from Consuelo

I'm the leader of a major nuclear power. I have recently signed agreements and have become much closer allied with another major economic And nuclear power. My nation is also involved in key business dealings with major economic powers in Europe and the Middle East. As of now, I am dealing with a situation of an unstable State on my flank, who is being funded and trained by a powerful nuclear power, 7000 miles distant from my nation but who has documented plans to 'contain' my nation and its leadership - at nearly All Costs... Not only is the 80% approval rating of my own citiznery highly important to me, but as well is my image, and through that image, the nation that I represent on the world stage, is on the line...

Therefore, in order to bolster my image and the image of my nation on the world stage, I am going to whack a dissenting, opposing voice of my government, in the middle of my Capital city for everyone to see, so that they can bear witness to what great discerning, diplomatic skills I employ to further win the hearts & minds of people the world over...

Yeah, that's plausible...


Like Silver Sooner says 'who know's" but I like this posters sarcasm


EDIT: here is a short video form the Vineyard of the Saker site that shows Putin discussing a false flag a couple of years ago

I guess you say "queen to rook five, your move Barak"

Mar 1, 2015 - 7:16pm

When Centralization Scales Beyond Our Control

In an article about NATO exercises in Estonia, just 300 yards from the Russian border, Daniel McAdams at the Ron Paul Institute makes a point that I want to use to make a much broader point. Not the provide answers, though, just to provide questions. McAdams quotes the Guardian review of a book by George Sakwa:

NATO’s Russia Border Games

Russian military plane over international waters 25 miles from the UK coast is “real and present danger” to NATO. Yet… Yet yesterday US combat vehicles conducted a military parade and show of military force in Estonia just 300 yards – yards! – from the Russian border. That is just over 60 miles from downtown St. Petersburg. This is not a provocation, we are to believe. This is not a “real and present danger” to Russia. NATO is exempt from the rules it imposes on its enemies. In the Guardian’s review of a new book by Politics professor George Sakwa, the current fallout from a near quarter century of post-Cold War NATO policies is perfectly captured:

The hawks in the Clinton administration ignored all this, Bush abandoned the anti-ballistic missile treaty and put rockets close to Russia’s borders, and now a decade later, after Russia’s angry reaction to provocations in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine today, we have what Sakwa rightly calls a “fateful geographical paradox: that NATO exists to manage the risks created by its existence”.

That line bears repeating: “NATO exists to manage the risks created by its existence.”

Yes, that line bears repeating, but it bears much more than that: the line doesn’t go nearly far enough. Because NATO doesn’t only exist, it develops and changes. In fact, to justify its prolonged existence, NATO has turned from a force for peace into a warmonger. That way, the organization argues, consciously or not, it provides itself with a reason to exist. It now doesn’t just exist to manage the risks, it exists to create them. In doing so, NATO itself has become the biggest risk.

Regular readers will be well aware that I, like Ron Paul, have said many times that NATO should be dismantled (and not just NATO). Not only because it’s long outlived its original purpose, based in the Cold War, but because it increasingly attracts as leaders people who use ever more aggressive language for ever more elusive reasons. The latest in the series are new General Secretary Stoltenberg and General ‘Warhead’ Breedlove, both of whom seem hell bent on outdoing even Ukraine’s leadership pair of Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk when it comes to making unsubstantiated claims about Russia, and about the situation in Ukraine – and Eastern Europe – in a broader sense.

My thesis is that all supranational organizations will eventually attract a certain kind of people as their leaders, and that these are inevitably the last kind of people we should want in these positions. But in the absence of effective democratic oversight, they end up there anyway. Therefore, the only way to counter this mechanism is to dismantle and abandon the organizations, while we still can. Which is not a given, since they function like power pyramids, in which ever more active power flows to an ever smaller top, until they become ‘untouchable’ by the nations that founded them in the first place.

Mar 1, 2015 - 7:47pm

False flags

It's often much easier to see who won't benefit compared to who will, and always a problem to determine motive.

One thing I do know is that only once in the history of civil aviation has the result of an enquiry into a crash not been made public. So this marks the global descent into a monstrous evil where the grieving relatives of those who were collateral damage can never have closure.

SS, I've enjoyed your commentaries and look forward to more. I trust this involvement will not take away too much from your job and family. Best wishes.

boomer sooner
Mar 1, 2015 - 11:36pm

Thanks SS

The "Fog of War" is definately a a pain in the arse. Which side is the correct side is blurred beyond recognition. I'm guessing both/three/four sides are lying in some form.

The following was found buried in the sakers comments section. I have read the IHS site in the past, but now look at the info as containing a form of the truth.

UPDATE: Russia's hybrid war in Ukraine 'is working'

Key Points

A conference attended by influential Ukrainian and US officials has concluded that Russia's hybrid warfare campaign in eastern Ukraine is working

Ukrainian forces continue to be outmatched, not only by the hardware they face but also the sophistication of the offensive they face

A significant forum focusing on the current situation in eastern Ukraine and the future of the country in terms of its relationship with the EU and NATO has revealed that Russia's 'hybrid warfare' campaign in its former Soviet vassal state appears to be achieving Moscow's desired results.

At a 14 February conference in the southern city of Dnepropetrovsk, Lieutenant General Ruslan Homchak, the head of the Ukrainian military's Operational Command South, and others involved in the combat in the eastern regions of Lugansk and Donetsk, along with a team from the Potomac Foundation, a Washington, DC-based private defence and foreign affairs think-tank, briefed the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, and two defence attaches from the US Embassy in Kiev.

The Potomac team was led by its director, Dr Phil Karber, a former senior official within the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and General Wesley Clark (rtd), who served as NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) from 1997-2000.

The main points made by the briefers were as follows:

- There are currently 14,400 Russian troops on Ukrainian territory backing up the 29,300 illegally armed formations of separatists in eastern Ukraine. These units are well equipped with the latest main battle tanks, armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, plus hundreds of pieces of tube and rocket artillery. There are also 29,400 Russian troops in Crimea and 55,800 massed along the border with eastern Ukraine.

More at link---

Now I am cracking up. Getting the Russian Lovely's in the side column. Have to keep the page skewed when wifey is around, otherwise the "fog of war" may get closer to home!

Mar 2, 2015 - 1:15am

The Fog of War

I don't normally hattip the articles, I don't know why. In the past year and half or so the number would fit easily on one hand (I think), but I hattipped yours.

Please post what keeps you and yours safe, it's the only thing I ask of you. Be strong, be well.

P.S. Boomer Sooner article above is hilarious.

Mar 2, 2015 - 6:23am

No photos

of the massed Russians slavering at the border?

Does that mean retired Generals don't get satellite privileges? Or do they lose them after the first 10 years of retirement?

What did the Gen RT do to be dragged out - make a bad investment? Hmm.

Has NATO not got any serving generals to do this or are they all busy elsewhere? <darting looks all around/>

Ah. I get it. Budget thingy right? Good for the old fella to get right back on that horse when called. And a bonus to the super. Rock on Grampy

Edit in case you are NOT sure of the sarcasm: This is a sideshow. Look elsewhere for the real action.

Mar 2, 2015 - 9:13am


Keeping tabs and being more informed on this conflict may be critical to our own decision making as the future unfolds. I appreciate your efforts.

Mar 2, 2015 - 9:16am

How about this poor guy?

Mar 2, 2015 - 9:40am


Thank you for your contributions in advance as I know it will be a personal struggle to get it right...


Mar 3, 2015 - 3:50am

Unfortunately there is

Unfortunately there is nothing we can do to avoid the war continuation and spreading into e.g. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Baltics etc. Very close to home, and pushing forward with unstoppable historic certainty. Slowly but surely tensions will increase as declining empire (Russia) clashes with expanding one (USA) whose existence depends on expansion, so yes this is existential contest from both sides with China on the sidelines so far looking to grab part of Russia and Central Asia and become a balancing power on par with the USA ..for some time, looking forward to take control from the USA in next decades. For that, they only need to ensure control over reserve currency which will come later, after some period where the USA and China, and may be Europe and India will share reserve currency status, broaden its base until China is ready to take over 100%.

Nick Elway
Mar 24, 2015 - 10:41am

MH17 summary

The Fog of War should have MH17 tracking, the best I found was

and the video

Video unavailable
Nick Elway
Mar 24, 2015 - 10:46am

Sniper summary in the Fog Of War

With so many unanswered questions, the truth about who was responsible for the killings remains far less clear cut than many commentators claim.


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