War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.
-- Carl von Clausewitz
Vault subscribers know that I've been writing about events in the Ukraine for a while now. I've also been doing a lot of digging and reading, trying to make sense of exactly what's going on there as well as what's happening between the U.S. and Russia. I've found a lot of things that are worthy of your consideration, regardless what you already think about the war in Ukraine or which side you feel is morally "right". None of this is inside knowledge--anyone can find this information if they ask the right questions and look in the right places. Neither are these things some crazy conspiracy theory which requires huge leaps of the imagination. And so, based on a suggestion by JY896, Turd has graciously allowed me the opportunity to present these things in a semi-regular blog format for the consideration and discussion for all of Turdville.
This is also the umpteenth time I've tried to write this article. The problem is, that the full magnitude of what is happening is too big--too sophisticated--to cover in one, brief article. As I've joked before, it's a VERY big rabbit hole. To say that I've agonized as to what and how to present these things would be a gross understatement. There's also the delicate matter the conflict's nature. This is because we are in the middle of a very real information and psychological war between two of the world's largest powers. And as I understand the conflict, BOTH sides view the war as an existential struggle--and both sides are playing deceptively and unethically.
Please understand that a large-scale, well-organized information war has no clearly-delineated battlefields and the targets in such a war are the hearts and minds of everyone on the planet. The world has never seen this type of warfare--on this scale--with these technological resources. In this type of war, words and ideas are the new bombs and bullets and can be more effective than a hundred laser-guided bombs delivered perfectly to their targets. Traditional, alternate, and social media become the territories where battles are fought and attacks are launched. Counterfeit realities and their development in popularly-accepted memes are the new "campaigns." Both sides employ counter-measures against attacks which results in twisted, half-truths and partial realities that take on lifes of their own. Thus, it's critically important that you take great care in discussing the war, the attacks, the strategies, lest you become a proxy fighter who unwittingly furthers one side or the other's objectives.
Again, both sides are already engaged in this new war. As an example from the "innocent" Russian side, consider the following quote from one of the most popular Pro-Russian/Novorussian bloggers, "Colonel Cassad" (a.k.a. Boris Rozhin):
“I think in the future [the Kremlin] will slowly reveal other details of the invisible but effective work of Voentorg, when the northern wind brought junta forces to a severe military catastrophe."
“I hope now my post from August will be more clear. Then I could only speak in those terms, today I can say more, and in a few months and even years even more will be told. It is difficult to keep quiet, when you know about such things and people are asking – where did the new [armored fighting vehicle] come from or “what is that in the background of that video?” But you have to understand, that one has to keep quiet until the time comes, due to information war and military secrets. In reality those who fought in Donbass, and those who helped with logistics sooner or later learned about Voentorg and its functions such things which are not shown on TV or online. This is part of ‘hybrid’ and ‘web-centric’ (net-centric) wars, which Russia is learning today, when information cover becomes one of the important parts of military planning. Americans are pros in this, but Russia for the most part is learning from them, and the war in Georgia, and Crimean spring, and Voentorg in Novorossia show that from a purely military perspective, our army is learning fast, although there are mistakes, problems and shortcomings. And the main thing – officially there was never a Russian army on the territory of DPR and LPR.
So in addition to my usual “Ukraine Updates”, my intent with this blog is to objectively explore the “Who? What? Why? How? and To what end?” of this war. Some of the topics that I already plan to cover (in no particular order):
- The U.S. and Russian geo-strategies that have inevitably clashed in Ukraine
- Eurasianism and the spiritual and esoteric foundations of this fascist movement
- The not-so-innocent beginnings of “Novorussia” and the Donetsk/Lugansk Republics
- Hybrid, psychological, information and net-centric warfare and how both sides use these
- The “arab spring/color revolution” tactic
I'm not trying to withhold information from you, tease you or make you dependent on me or this site for information. I have a young family and a day job that are my priorities. So, please, feel free to read-ahead and follow some of the following breadcrumbs: Look into the Rasputin-esque Aleksandr Dugin and read what Russian military officers studied in Dugin's 1992 book "The Great War of Continents" or his 1997 book "Foundations of Geopolitics". Do a word-search in the last book as well as Brzezinksi's 1997 book "The Grand Chessboard" for the word "Ukraine". Check into the ultra-nationalist, neo-fascist, and cult-like underpinnings of the Eurasian movement. Combine some of the early Novorussian leaders names with Dugin and see what Sergeant Google will return. Just guard yourselves. Resist the temptations to choose a side. Heed my warning above about being a proxy fighter.
My desire is to objectively present the things that I've found. I don't want to convince anyone. I'm not "pro" either side. I just want to relay what I see from this corner of the watchtower.
"But if the watchman see the sword come, and blow not the trumpet, and the people be not warned; if the sword come, and take any person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood will I require at the watchman's hand."
What you do with this is up to you.
Welcome to the fog of war.