Not By Accident

Tue, Feb 17, 2015 - 11:07am

That prices are getting hammered today should not really come as a surprise to anyone. None of this is by accident or happenstance. The Banks are getting the price reaction they desire and we are simply observers.

If you were following along last evening, you likely saw these two charts. I even tweeted them so as to alert as many folks as possible. This first chart is a one-minute chart showing a sudden drop in gold, importantly on absolutely NO NEWS.

And here is an hour's worth of the same "market" action, in 3-minute candles. Again, $6 taken out on NO NEWS and with a Chinese holiday and Mar15 silver expirations pending...this was the warning signal to anyone paying attention that the hammer was about to fall:

And fall it has. After grinding lower initially, silver fell precipitously to near $16.70 in the Comex pre-open while gold held near the always-important $1220. Well, that wasn't going to be allowed and the next wave came rushing in, driving price through $1220 and through $16.65. Mission accomplished. The massive, HUGE volume dump in both metals places the blame squarely at the feet of The Cartel Banks, intent upon smashing price through these important levels and perpetuating the bearish sentiment. No other group of market participants has this kind of volume firepower at their disposal.

They can do this today because the Chinese markets are on holiday. Without Chinese banks and wholesale demand sopping up physical metal at these prices, it's as if the physical bid has been removed. This leaves The Banks with full power to move the paper price around without consequence.

As they do, they accomplish three of their most pertinent, short-term goals:

  1. Continue to drive the Specs out of the long side of paper gold. As noted in Friday's podcast, though GROSS open interest has nearly fallen back to 1/2/15 levels, the NET Spec positions in both gold and silver are only about half way back. Thus, The Banks continue to lean on the Specs so that The Banks can cover and close as many of their ill gotten January naked shorts as possible.
  2. Open interest must be frightened out of the March15 silver contract. As of last Friday, there were still 73,641 open Mar15 contracts out of a total Comex silver OI that, at 171,015, was just 5,000 contracts from a new all-time high. By Mar15 expiration day next Thursday, total OI will likely recede back to the 155,000 level and, if The Banks can rig a bunch of the OI out all at once like today, the results can be devastating for price.
  3. Minimizing pain at Mar15 option expiration next Tuesday. With 1,467 Mar15 $17 calls still open, there is no way that The Banks are going to allow a $17+ close that day. However, there are also 1,577 $16.50 puts and 2,108 $16.00 puts still open so they're not going to want to drive price much lower from here, either. Though you can expect further volatility over the week, my bet is that price closes next Tuesday at or slightly above $16.50.

Putting that all together, I'm very likely to get my $16.25 silver price target that I've been wanting. I must admit that, back on Friday, I was wondering if I should chase. I'm glad I didn't. But I'm sure itching to get my hands on some more of those "stackers" from Scottsdale. As soon as I pull the trigger, I'll let you know. For anyone looking to so the same, here's the link:

Of course, I would also encourage you to visit these great companies for all of your stacking needs:

Here are updates on the daily charts we've been following. Note again why the effort was made to smash gold through $1220 this morning. And, again, what exactly was the gold negative news that cause this steep decline??

And, though silver was smashed through the neckline of $16.65, I've been preparing you for a drop toward the blue line near $16.25. Again, there's not much incentive for The Banks to crack it even lower from here so let's look for stability around this price level.

I must admit, however, that even I...The Great and Powerful Turd...end up feeling somewhat powerless, hopeless and distraught on days like this. It is so abundantly clear that these "markets" are a complete sham, driven and manipulated by The Bullion Banks to whichever outcome they'd prefer. Therefore, it's easy to despair and feel as though it will never end...that The Banks will always win and then taunt us and spike the ball in our faces as they leave the field.

Well, they won't win forever. That much is a mathematical certainty and our "job" is simply to remain grounded and patient. To that end, I found this latest column from Sovereign Man to be helpful. So, I'll leave you for now with this link, though I'll be back later today with a full podcast summary and review.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 17, 2015 - 11:07am



Danforth Coxwell
Feb 17, 2015 - 11:10am



Feb 17, 2015 - 11:16am


4th EDIT: Danforth does this make me second 2nd?

Feb 17, 2015 - 11:20am

Silver Spoon...

Would love to hear if your contacts are confirming this...

Feb 17, 2015 - 11:23am

Silver Spoon...

Regarding a possible coup in Kiev in one week... It appears that Poroshenko and other high ranking members of the Kiev government have sent their families out of country.

Feb 17, 2015 - 11:28am

By the way, I imagine the anger in Greece towards the EU must be escalating rapidly; it wouldn't surprise me if Syriza shortly had popular support for leaving the Euro and defaulting on 100% of non Greek owned government debt. That's the problem with sociopathic banking scumbags, they cannot relate to how ordinary people may feel/react.

If Syriza do already have something lined up with the BRICS, then I suspect future historians will judge them to have played a blinder politically.

Feb 17, 2015 - 11:35am

Took advantage of the beat

Took advantage of the beat down and picked up another roll. Love it when silver is on sale!

Feb 17, 2015 - 11:37am

today is just one of those depressing

beat them down Tuesdays.

kinda getting sick of them, but hey wars are not won overnight.

But imagine WW2 when the tide turned it never ended

Feb 17, 2015 - 11:38am

Turd, got a short term Au target?

Granted I read the article quickly, then re-read,

Got Silver target @ 16.25

Do you have a feel for Au? Looking to deploy a little greenback.

Safety Dan
Feb 17, 2015 - 11:46am

Greek banks fall on concern

Greek banks fall on concern of capital controls as aid talks end

By Elisa Martinuzzi & Stefania Spezzati

Greek banks fell in Athens trading after talks among euro-area finance ministers on extending the nation’s bailout ended abruptly, raising concern lenders may need to introduce controls to avert capital flight.

The FTSE/Athex Banks Index fell as much as 9.6 percent at 10:53 a.m. in Athens, led by Piraeus Bank SA, which fell 9.3 percent, and National Bank of Greece SA, which dropped 6.7 percent.

Greece’s banks are relying for their liquidity on funds granted by the European Central Bank. Emergency Liquidity Assistance will be provided as long as there is a chance of an agreement, economists at Barclays Plc including Antonio Garcia Pascual and Thomas Harjes wrote to clients Monday, after the meeting ended.

If the ECB turns off ELA liquidity, the situation will probably precipitate the need to set up capital controls to avoid funds fleeing Greece, and Greek banks would probably have to introduce limits to cash withdrawals, the analysts wrote.


Feb 17, 2015 - 11:48am
Feb 17, 2015 - 11:50am


I am an american living in Germany. Greece has a GDP that could be compared with the city of BOSTON with 350 billion in debts! This is lunacy pure, and I can't believe that I am rooting for communists to bring reality back to the world... The present situation is tantamount to one of us with an income of $ $50,000.00 a year net and having 5 million in debts. No austerity will make these debts collectable, period! Any agreement will simply kick the can down the road and make the inevitable correction that much more painful. The time is long overdue that Europe sets down with a calculator and finds a set of balls... I agree with you. This could get out of hand very quickly and easily... stacking. 

Feb 17, 2015 - 11:53am

Getting tempted...

Back in December, I sat at my desk and stared at these charts on a Sunday night and watched silver plod along for 3 hours at 14.80-ish (after a one minute spike down to $14.05). I was sorely tempted to buy 1000 ounces with my credit card. All I had to do was press the buy button. I could have taken a nifty $2-3 profit per ounce, a few weeks later, even with the spread at the LCS.

This morning as I see price drop, remembering TX Sandman's warning the other day of an even lower price, I am getting tempted to pull the trigger on such a deal, waiting for that long spike-down candle wick on the 5-minute chart and buy on the way back up, selling in a few days or weeks when we hit stout resistance and the momentum fades.

Sounds easy as I talk about it. But there have been several occasions when I could have made such a trade but was too rattled by news and insecurity in markets to pull the trigger.

Or I could refund my trading account and by a /SI futures call option if we move way down, unnaturally.

Or is the end-game too close to take the risk...?

TS warned of possible $12 silver before long. What will I do if I see that price? What about $15? I am not quite tempted yet here in the low 16s, though a regular stacking purchase seems very sensible right now.

Just thinking out loud.

Sound Money Minnow
Feb 17, 2015 - 12:02pm

Made my first small purchase at JM Bullion

I just grabbed 25-1 ounce sunshine silver rounds at JM Bullion. Very easy website, and fair prices with no shipping costs. Hope to visit them if these wonderful buying opportunities continue. I am looking 5 years out, so these fluctuations don't really concern me. I am going to play a few miners with significant upside, stay away from leveraged ETF's, and options. Concentrate on wise monthly purchases to dollar cost average in the physical. Ultra conservative, maybe, but right now that is my most comfortable play. Best to all with greater risk tolerance than myself.


Feb 17, 2015 - 12:03pm

I can't remember

Is today still CoT snapshot day with the Holiday being yesterday?

Feb 17, 2015 - 12:14pm


Silver is flat today, you have been misinformed that there was a drop in price or that FRN's rose against Silver.

The price of a Silver Eagle is the same today as it was Friday, check it out:

Apparently the prices shown on my trading screens are just bankster masturbations since I'm unable to execute a purchase at that price.

I'm ever so slowly moving closer to your camp SS121...

Sound Money Minnow
Feb 17, 2015 - 12:20pm

Have made numerous purchases at APMEX in the past

Looking at todays prices JM Bullion is a better deal. Especially if you are not making large purchases. Definitely check them out. They also have a pay pal option. I think I found a new physical provider.

Feb 17, 2015 - 12:37pm



Feb 17, 2015 - 12:40pm

Sorry. Forgot to mention...

The damage today ( well below 1220 and even below 1210) is such that a drop to the blue line on the daily gold chart is likely. Not probable yet, just likely.

Sound Money Minnow
Feb 17, 2015 - 12:42pm

And since they help to keep

And since they help to keep the lights on here through their advertising, I hope everyone is sure to shop there.

Feb 17, 2015 - 12:51pm

Never going to END

Turd Get use to it, it will NEVER END. NO MORE dump days for me. have GIVEN UP, and instead of hoping For this to end. Now will spend my days on The beach drinking beer. Will have Many HAPPY DAYS. That is the benefit of beer. Also will feel much better. Terry

Feb 17, 2015 - 12:53pm


Like clockwork!

Is this goodbye for good? Please say yes Terry,

Bye Bye

Feb 17, 2015 - 12:53pm

Turd, can you speculate on

Turd, can you speculate on why the 10-year note yield has been spiking from a recent low of 1.63% to still-making-new-highs of 2.12% today?

Feb 17, 2015 - 12:56pm

Schauble meets the Greeks

an uncanny resemblance...



Feb 17, 2015 - 12:58pm

JM Bullion

I too couldn't resist today.

Just went to JM and "bit the bullet" - got some of those Bull/Bear coins, some Year of the Horse, and a couple more .45 silver bullets =) Those make great gifts - though it's very difficult to part with them!

Thanks for the updates Turd! Oil down again too - any new thoughts on that?

Feb 17, 2015 - 12:59pm

Chinese New Year Hyjinx

Hey All in Turdville,

​Seems to me that this is a yearly event. Every time the calendar rolls around to Chinese New Year the Bullion banks are well

positioned to smash metals prices and thus ring the cash register on the massive short position. Happens EVERY YEAR.

All this does is it gives everyone the opportunity to buy some cheap phizz. It looks like this year's smash is a little early which 

reeks of desperation. Can you imagine how profitable the wash, rinse and repeat cycle is for these ass wipes. To pull this stunt early indicates that they are desperate for some cash as they have too many other holes to plug else wear in the financial system. It is probably not over as China will still be at their desks until Thursday. Then watch for some price capitulation.

If you can think you don't have enough phizz, then this is nothing more than a buying opportunity.

Feb 17, 2015 - 1:06pm


Dropping the dollar - actively discussed but not on US news. Once again getting news from RT. I think Vlad know what he is doing.

Russia & Egypt may drop dollar in bilateral trade

Al-Ahram: How could you comment on the idea that is being actively discussed in Egypt to exclude US dollar and use national currencies that are rubles and Egyptian pounds for settlement of accounts in the bilateral trade?

VP: This issue is really being actively discussed, primarily because the tourist season will begin in Egypt soon. Evidently, settlement of accounts in national currencies will contribute to creating more favorable conditions for millions of Russian citizens who annually spend their holidays in your country.

Besides, this measure will open up new prospects for trade and investment cooperation between our countries, reduce its dependence on the current trends in the world markets.

Therefore, it is quite natural that the business circles of both States raised an issue of advisability of using national currencies for bilateral payments.

READ MORE: Chinese and West to 'invest heavily' in Russia, despite challenges – Gaidar Forum

I should note that we already use national currencies for trade with a number of the CIS States, and China. This practice proves its worth; we are ready to adopt it in our relations with Egypt as well. This issue is being discussed in substance by relevant agencies of both countries.

Safety Dan
Feb 17, 2015 - 1:09pm

Ted Butler said in a quote I

Ted Butler said in a quote I used from his February 7 commentary in this column last week---

"Let me make it easy for those who refuse to acknowledge the silver manipulation. Simply explain why 8 traders, mostly domestic and foreign banks, would hold short the equivalent of 40% of the world's annual production---and a third of all the silver bullion that exists---at prices below the average primary cost of production and nearly 70% below the price levels of four years ago."

"How could such a concentrated short position be explained in legitimate terms and what would be its purpose? What effect would such a large short position have on the price of any commodity---and how do you see it being resolved if it wasn’t permanent?"

"I don’t expect any serious answers to such questions, as it appears to be easier to malign the questioner as a conspiracy theorist instead, but I know these questions have never been addressed in a straightforward manner by anyone who denies the silver manipulation."

Today, at the close of COMEX trading, is the cut-off for Friday's Commitment of Traders Report. As far as what should be expected as the Tuesday trading session unfolds in New York, I haven't a clue. However, I'm not overly happy to see the current price action, but it comes as no surprise to me, nor should it you.

See you tomorrow.

Ed Steer

Feb 17, 2015 - 1:11pm
Clarki Stomias
Feb 17, 2015 - 1:12pm

Debaltseve: About to get ugly for Ukranian Army

2h2 hours ago

Just spoken w Father Ivan, Ukr chaplain formerly @ . He says situ catastrophic there, military HQ now completely encircled (1/3)

· 2h 2 hours ago

Ivan says encircled Ukr troops at Debaltseve HQ will not hold out without additional support. Unclear where that can come from (2/3)

· 2h 2 hours ago

Despite months of planning, clear we are seeing situation similar to Ilovaisk and airport: paralysis, chaos + potential huge bloodshed (3/3)

20m20 minutes ago

The fate of and Ukrainians encircled there likely to be decided within hours. Ceasefire and prove to be a joke

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