Start Your Week With This

Mon, Jun 20, 2011 - 9:14am

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 20, 2011 - 9:17am

Just finished it - great

Just finished it - great interview!

Jun 20, 2011 - 9:20am


Licking my chops now!

Jun 20, 2011 - 9:23am

whats up

hey all - good morning Turd ,

What just happened? News? looks like we jumped .40 in 2 minutes. I guess that shouldn't surprise anyone anymore. Just another day in silverworld.

btw - my chat screen is covered by a google adsense box. maybe admin could fix.

here we go again

Jun 20, 2011 - 9:27am


sorry. setting on chart is 1H not 1Min. btw I take full credit for any rally - I bought puts on slv Fri.

Jun 20, 2011 - 9:28am

Heard it yesternight, really

Heard it yesternight, really interesting points of view expressed by Santa and T.Dan, I really hope they are right about the upcoming uber-performance of the miners.

molson cdn
Jun 20, 2011 - 9:33am

excellent information

this guy is amazing. he is absolutely correct. once again i am in awe.

truthfully, i am still trying to swallow all the information he gave us last week.

"....It is now, its not tomorrow.... the train is leaving the station.... the middle class and upper middle will become serf's...... the worlds banking system is hanging on by finger nails..."

Turd, thanks for bringing on the clean up hitters of the PM world. Labatts Blue will be on this evenings menu.

Jun 20, 2011 - 9:43am

Thanks, TF

Very encouraging... Bring on the Pac-Man's!

Jun 20, 2011 - 9:44am


I see the US dollar is the sacrificial lamb this morning to get the Market up...

Jun 20, 2011 - 9:47am


Sounds very much like Big Jim and Dan are pumping up the miners and the crowd and trying to keep psychology in the sector from completely deflating. Almost a desperate quality to to interview imo to prevent the usual summer doledrum play and to blame the Hedgies for the terrible performance of miners this year.

Until there is a sea change unfortunately the good trade buying GDX and GDXJ at open and then making sure one is out by 11 a.m. is suitable but then all patterns eventually close down and all good trades eventually crash. Would love to see the Hedgefunds stop shorting the juniors but then Dan has been complaining about this for 6 months ongoing now. Doesn't do any good to complain.

Jun 20, 2011 - 9:57am

SLW is making a come back

just loaded up on some 35 aug calls. Good looks gentlemen. Everything is oversold, for now. Strong bias upwards.

Jun 20, 2011 - 10:01am

Maybe this is my bias against

Maybe this is my bias against paper talking, but I feel like all this talk about exploding prices for miners is premature. During GDI the prices for PM miners held up better than any other class of equity, but most of them still ended down by the start of WWII. I think something similar will happen here. The price probably won't go DOWN, but it probably will just barely keep pace with inflation, at least until the COMEX goes bust, at which point all bets are off. It could be that they cease to offer shares in the US at that point, as trading in general shifts the the Far East.

Shill bernard
Jun 20, 2011 - 10:04am


just loaded up on some 35 aug calls. Good looks gentlemen. Everything is oversold, for now. Strong bias upwards.

Hmm I have not seen any sell offs to speak of? Tread carefully

Jun 20, 2011 - 10:14am

well I don't know about you boys

but I am loving this chart from a technical standpoint, and the action today speaks of potential for a pivot point back up. SLW up 2.3%, slv basically flat, AG down a little bit.

Jun 20, 2011 - 10:17am
Jun 20, 2011 - 10:19am

Apple's shareprice encounters

Apple's shareprice encounters gravity if and when unemployment goes above 5%. But for some reason, it's only now showing signs at 10%... possibly something to do with 30 million of the 44.5 million Americans on food stamps owning Apple products.

Jun 20, 2011 - 10:26am


I will take the path of wait and see for the next two weeks and possible July month. Super bull does not end in a month.

Captain Silver tmosley
Jun 20, 2011 - 10:35am

Agree with tmosley

I don't see a huge spike in miners yet. The consolidation phase in the sector may get going sooner rather than later, but it will occur over a good while. I suspect M&A activity will be more methodical than in the past. "Cash" on hand for most companies is the only hedge against market volatility, important even for miners they have to pay their bills too.

Captain Phelps
Jun 20, 2011 - 10:38am

Miner shorties

This was a great interview and particularly helpful to those of us who feel trapped in our miner shares. Their point about the shorties driving share prices down to the level at which they become shark food in very compelling. I can think of about 16 (the number of miners in my accounts) that I know have had the crap beat out of them and I wouldn't mind seeing a flood of hostile takeovers.

Jun 20, 2011 - 10:47am
Jun 20, 2011 - 10:55am

I really did appreciate the

I really did appreciate the interview that Eric went out of his way to give to these two great men. It seems that years of underperformance coupled with the creeping 'deflationary' mindset is starting to convince even long term bulls of gold and silver, that they need to exit all their mining positions. This has personally been the case for me. I've been thinking of dumping miners and putting all the proceeds into physical, but over the last week I've concluded that it would be foolish(even if I exit them) to do so when they're at these depressed levels.

Patience wins out in a secular bull market. I hope Bob Chapman's right that in the case of a similar 08' meltdown, that the Hedgies can't force small to mid-cap miners down 90% again. Sitting tight....hoping to be right.

Jun 20, 2011 - 10:56am


From 12/2009 to 2/2010 the HUI index moved down 28%. Presently it has dropped 18%.

100 days later HUI was back to even.

In 2008 HUI lost 36%, in 2009 HUI gained 42%.

S&P in 2008- 1465 and now under 1300.

Eric Original
Jun 20, 2011 - 10:57am

Hey All

I started up a thread on some of my gold miners. There's not a lot there yet, but please stop by. We are having an open house today with cookies and lemonade for all!

Jun 20, 2011 - 11:02am

Time and Price Supersized

"The under performance of the gold stocks is mainly related to the massive bankster financed short positions in play on the stocks. You will see the funds bust out of their gold stocks short trade. It's a crisis and the banksters will use every turn in the crisis road to unveil a new rockslide, and they have. In a supersize crisis delays and surprises are supersize. Everything has been supersized in both TIME and PRICE."

Stewart Thomson

This will end very abruptly and violently.

Jun 20, 2011 - 11:11am

posted this in a forum topic

posted this in a forum topic but since its the same topic, posting it here.

caution remains the order of the day, but the trend and signs suggest they are right. The upticks in the mining space might not be immediate but the higher metal prices and higher revenues/income should result in higher prices. They continued to reiterate that eventually, the fundamentals will take over. I also agree with them that the activity we've seen ie. depressed mining stocks, is partly a function of shorts trying to cover, and in particular, naked shorts. There is no doubt in my mind shorts will lose alot of $$'s. The naked short sellers caught on the wrong side will be forced to buy back shares that just aren't there for buying at the price they want it at. Ergo, to get back onside, they'll need to bid up the price to entice longs to sell shares. And in the acquisition activity expected and the signs point to higher prices.

Jun 20, 2011 - 11:14am


  1. 11:07a

    Fed buys $4.62 bln in Treasurys; bonds quiet

Jun 20, 2011 - 11:16am


This market just has a funny feeling today. The DJIA is up 50 and GDXJ is down to $32.33 which shines a light on the direction of miners. My old bones are saying " load up a bit on something like BGZ and save the cash to buy back into GDXJ later". We all know that there is a wagon load of cash sitting on the sidelines and it will not come back into the miners until T.F. and others say "Dive In Bigtime".

Jun 20, 2011 - 11:24am

They are worried for us...not themselves.

I listened to the interview and perhaps it is worth pausing for a second and putting it in context.

Jim Sinclair has been calling for MACRO moves in precious metals for years. The man simply lives at the 10,000 foot level and whether you know it or not... his father was Jessie Livermore's partner...together they personally traded 10% of the NY stock he grew up on the knee of best traders in the world and lived inside the system. Many suggest that today he still has connections to the banking families that own the "system"...whatever.

The sense of urgency in his voice is real...but not for him...for US! He has royalty deals and three mines coming online just at the perfect time...this year and the next2 years.

I believe he see's "right here, right now" as the situation he has been warning about for years.

If you listen to James Turk... you get the following info: The ECB (European Central Bank) is leveraged up the Ying Yang. Their capital base is such that it would only take a 4% "haircut" on their book to wipe out ALL of their capital base and trigger a call to the rest of the countries for money. Therefore any Greek haircut will wipe them out and Germany know this. The Fed is actually leveraged DOUBLE and a 2.5% correction would wipe them out.

All agree that it could be anything that triggers the house of cards to collapse. Sinclair is saying we are there right now and we don't need any more problems... we have enough right here and now.

Good Lord ...even a Rothschild spoke....and they never speak.

Anywhere you look you still see people calling for deflation. Yes the US housing market is in the crapper... that's because they sold too many to people who could not afford them and now there is a glut. (supply and demand). The REAL measure of deflation is the cost of money. In a true Deflation...the dollar gets stronger and buys more... in that scenario it would also be worth more. Does anyone see the US dollar getting stronger or interest rates rising? The US tripled their money supply and are running multi trillion dollar deficits while the two parties argue over the whether to raise the limit on their credit card. The US deficit this year is about equal to their GDP. (It is larger if you take out government spending which should not really be included in a GDP number anyway)

Mining stock being actively shorted by the Hedge fund's and has been for quite a while now. The problem the Hedge funds have is the same that the bullion banks had in the early 90's. They have driven the value of shares down below their intrinsic worth ...if gold and silver bullion stay at these price levels...the value of the companies are worth MUCH more than their stock is telling us they are worth today and eventually folks will see this a a buying opportunity... not a "bubble.

The Cartel tries to hold down the price of bullion ...period..full stop...end of story. To that end they naked short, leverage, settle for cash, change the rules, change the laws and just about everthing they can to take folks eye off the value of a hard asset like gold and silver ...which by the way they are short of to cover their obligations.

Do we need to talk about what happens when the Middle east oil exporting countries drop their dollar peg for oil...or why the Saudies are using the Brent price for crude (set in Europe) rather than the West Texas price (set in the US).

How about the fact that the US debt is something like 100 trillion.

How about the cost to service the debt being greater than the entire US tax revenue base (shadow stats).

All of that said... forget the daily and weekly view...pull up those decade charts and relax.

One interesting note from James Turk is that the buying power of Gold has been relatively constant since 1950. Can you say Inflation anyone?

The Final point I want to make is this... All of my goods now on the water from China for my stores are UP an average of 15% and my goods being ordered for next spring are up 25% on average. If that is not consumer inflation...please tell me what is.

Jun 20, 2011 - 11:24am

hat tips

Thanks, Turd. I love your new site! The hat tip is great. It is a much better system than ZH junk.

Jun 20, 2011 - 12:16pm

@best ever.....

I am watching the same. Kudo's and a Tip of the hat!

Jun 20, 2011 - 12:31pm

U.S. Default Likely

By sgoldstein[at]marketwatch[dot]com (Steve Goldstein), MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Bank reserves swelling, and commodity prices surging — that’s the situation that the U.S. economy is now confronting.

But it also was the case back in 1937. And that’s what worries Ethan Harris, North American economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

He fears, now like then, that tightening of monetary and fiscal policy could cause a recession, so much so that he thinks a temporary default on U.S. Treasury obligations may be preferable to overly swift spending cuts.

His view stands at odds with the rest of Wall Street, which has frequently communicated to congressional Republicans as well as the White House their desire to see the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling increased. See related story on Wall Street warnings.

They fear a temporary default could disrupt the $4 trillion Treasury financing market, could spark a run on money-market funds and increase mortgage rates.

It’s also at odds from the broader public: 70% say a default would be bad for the economy, and 56% say failure to cut spending is worse, according to a telephone survey from Rasmussen Reports of likely U.S. voters.

But Harris is concerned about the parallels from the “recession within a Great Depression” of the late 1930s.

Back then, the Federal Reserve increased reserve requirements, and a federal government “exhausted” by deficit spending hiked tax rates and slowed spending on the Works Progress Administration, Harris said.

The rhetoric of newly elected President Franklin D. Roosevelt also scared businesses.

Harris said the current Fed, and in particular Chairman Ben Bernanke, has learned that expansion of reserves is only inflationary if it prompts a boom in bank lending. And the more business-friendly tone of late from the Obama administration has shown the president “has recognized how negative rhetoric can damage business confidence and hiring.”

But he’s worried about fiscal tightening.

“Today, as in the mid-1930s, fiscal fatigue has set in. The debate has shifted from keeping the recovery going to removing fiscal support,” Harris said.

He points out that even if Congress takes no action, programs comprising more than a percentage point of gross domestic product are due to expire next year, and that the debate about austerity can hurt even before the cuts kick in.

“The risk of a bad outcome is high,” he said. “We are not sure whether it is worse to do nothing, and temporarily default on the debt, or to do too much and enact big front-loaded deficit cuts.”

Harris said the best policy outcome would be modest upfront spending cuts with a commitment to deal with long-run structural deficit concerns after the 2012 presidential election.


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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

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