Gold Loses Its Safe Haven Bid

Tue, Feb 3, 2015 - 10:42am

Just for fun, I thought I'd give you this dopey and utterly useless mainstream media headline/explanation as to why gold is down today. Of course, you and I know the real story.

So, as predictable as the sunrise, gold is under pressure again today. As we noted yesterday, any foray above $1282 has been quickly repelled and it was again overnight. Check the chart below showing the action since the Sunday Globex open:

Notice the blue ovals around the big green down candles. Do you know I've chosen to highlight them? Take a look at the timing. ALL of those big green down candles occurred during low volume Globex trading. This tells us two things:

  • This is always a sign of Bank manipulation and intent. Only an entity hell-bent on manipulating sentiment and price would consistently dump into the low-volume Globex.
  • However, this is also a sign of weakness that borders on desperation. Lacking the firepower to pull off a full-frontal Comex raid, the Bank(s) raid the Globex where they can get bigger bang for their naked buck due to the low volume and small bid stack.

Again, why are they so desperate to rig price lower here? Because the pending news and events as we go through this month should almost be exclusively gold bullish and with:

  • Gold large specs NET LONG 189,000 contracts as of last week AND
  • The Banks already GROSS SHORT 323,486 contracts

Every effort must be made NOW to shake the confidence of the spec momos and chase them back out of the paper gold trade. This spec long liquidation will be used by The Banks to buy back their naked short positions before the next news/event inspired price run up.

So, shake, shake, shake. Raid, raid, raid. Keep price below the critical $1280 level and the hope and pray that you inspire enough downward momentum that you can breach the 200-day MA on or before BLSBS Friday and inspire even more selling.

Of course, NONE OF THIS HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH SUCH NONSENSE AS FUNDAMENTALS OR PHYSICAL DEMAND. And it most certainly has nothing to do with "gold losing its safe haven bid". This is 100% entirely driven be The Cartel Banks attempting to "square their books" a little while they can.

So, whatever. The Banks are going to do what The Banks want to do and, as we always say...They've got a little Mississippi Leg Hound in 'em. Once they lay into ya, you'd best just let 'em finish.

But how about silver? Isn't it funny how ole Turd's simple little lines often work so well? Just yesterday, I told you to expect the cap at $17.25 to fail and for silver to run quickly toward $17.70. Hmmm. As you can see below, the overnight high in silver...once $17.25 was taken out...was $17.74. As gold was driven lower, so was silver and I have a last all the way back to $17.25. Now we'll just have to see what happens later this week and with the BLSBS, though I suspect we're soon going to get another look at something sub-$17 and we'll need to watch that neckline at $16.65 really, really closely if we do.

And how about the HUI? The chart below is remarkable in that it shows another failure precisely at the 200-day MA. Why is this important?

Look, this is just a stupid index of miners. There aren't futures on it and no obvious way to "play" it of you're a gambler or a thrill-seeking algo. THERE IS NO REASON for it to stop on a dime and reverse at the 200-day 5 times in 15 days! The only explanation is a concerted, deliberate attempt by someone/something to keep the index below that moving average because of the positive implications an UPward breach would have.

(I feel like I'm having trouble explaining this in written form so I'll be certain to discuss this in today's podcast.)

Let me try again....There is no "market" for the HUI. Therefore, there is no "community" or group of active traders watching the index and buying or selling it based upon its relative position to the 200-day. Therefore, when you see such a clear pattern of failure at that critical indicator, the only conclusion you can logically draw is that someone/something is watching the number value of the HUI and then activating a sell program of the underlying stocks in a attempt to keep the index from printing a bullish cross. There is simply no other logical explanation.

Alright, I was going to type more but I see that the selling is ramping up and the price is back down to $1260 so I'd better just go ahead and get this posted. I'll add some more thoughts and links in the comments.


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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


CPE · Feb 3, 2015 - 10:43am


the wall of worry is intact around here, must be a bull market.

legacyelectric · Feb 3, 2015 - 10:46am

2 ND


· Feb 3, 2015 - 10:49am

As you brace for the month ahead


You must understand what all of the hubbub in Greece ia about and this article, though lengthy, is simply a must read for everyone. Period.

Dr. P. Metals · Feb 3, 2015 - 10:57am

So, we're to expect a different outcome

Than when the Swiss held the "balance of the future of sound money for all of mankind" in their own hot little voting hands? Sorry, I call BS on Greece. Will be same "result".

· Feb 3, 2015 - 11:07am


So Woody can' t meet with Netanyahu because "he doesn't want to interfere with the upcoming election". But then he sends in his old staff of electioneering experts to fight against Netanyahu in said upcoming election?

Huh? You couldn't even make this shit up if you tried and yet here it is and nowhere in the MSM do you find a discussion. Just like the Ukraine story. LIES LIES LIES and no one cares.

Orange · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:07am


Back in on the roller coaster at $31.20. Plan to sell around 1:30 as gold heads back up.

edit looks like it might hit $27 or $29 before going back up. I guess history repeats.

Dr. P. Metals · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:14am

very Fitting ETF symbol


Love their sense of humor.

· Feb 3, 2015 - 11:20am

In yesterday's podcast...

I mentioned again the thoroughly disgusting level of Silver Commercial GROSS naked shorts. At 121,557, this is the equivalent of 608MM ounces or roughly 3/4 of total annual mine supply. Grotesque.

By we need to look at this on a NET basis, too. Since the Silver Commercial GROSS long position was 59,964 last week, this means that the NET position of the Silver Commercials (JPM and a handful of 6-7 other banks) is 61,593 contracts. Ted Butler now confirms that this is the highest NET position since October of 2010.

Perhaps you're curious as to where price was in October of 2010? Around $23. And here we are 5 years later. No wonder I'm so tired...

On the bright side...Even with that CoT structure in 2010, price managed to more than double over the next seven months.

infometron · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:23am

So many things to watch

What a world, eh? Here is one more thing on my radar today, can (no longer shall I use 'will') tptb (no longer shall I capitalize this acronym) goose the S&P above its 50 day moving average in their latest attempt to herd the sheep back into the market?

· Feb 3, 2015 - 11:28am


Remember what I said about Ukrainian President Poroshenko in yesterday's forum post? Protestors tried to storm the Presidential administration building this evening in Kiev.'re on the clock.

infometron · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:30am

Great catch @ Orange!

I had my buy limits for JNUG at $30.10 :^(

Kudos for the $30.20 grab, looks like you may have nailed the bottom (for today)

J · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:30am

Whoa. Seriously?

Not seeing THAT reported anywhere! Thanks, SS!!

realitybiter · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:30am

If dollars

and PMs are so closely correlated why does any of the last 40 years of quarters not buy 1/10th the amount of gasoline that any silver quarter buys? Weird how that works....

arbitrage this my friends. The universe speaks.

Dr. P. Metals · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:30am
· Feb 3, 2015 - 11:31am

And here you go...

CPE · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:34am


I've listened to your disclaimers on the podcasts regarding possible CoT lies like the BPR. You've been consistent talking about how the BPR is easier to fake because it's just a "trust me" number from the Banks, and the CoT would be tougher to rig because all the longs and shorts have to net out exactly.

But Liebor was rigged, currencies are rigged, stocks are rigged, bonds are rigged, paper gold and silver are rigged.

You also mentioned desperation as evidenced by the banks only raiding during globex lately, and now they won't show us GOFO because they have much to hide.

Would not lying about CoT exposure (afterall JPM and other banks have HUGE hedgefunds offshore and elsewhere that can participate in the spec category) as a way to manipulate sentiment. It's obviously having an affect on you and many others here, so I'm suspecting this is just another desperate lever............

I bet they aren't as net short as in 2010, I bet they have offsetting swaps on the OTC. I think this is a big con or at a minimum we are only being shown one leg of a two leg position....

· Feb 3, 2015 - 11:34am

re: Whoa. Seriously?

They're not coming for his neck...yet. But another data point to add to the pile.

CPE · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:38am

I hear ya

In fact, I was thinking this earlier. I've spent so much time discussing the CoT structure lately that I need to add again THAT IT COULD ALL BE...AND QUITE LIKELY IS...COMPLETE BULLSHIT. Designed and reported to wrong-foot as many folks as possible.

Will be sure to mention again in today's podcast. Thanks for the reminder.

Orange · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:38am


No, I was a chicken, I got in at $31.20, not $30.20 like I did last week. Sold the next day at $33.65.

infometron · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:39am

@ Craig Re: Net position

I'm a wee bit confused (I think). So isn't that a NET position of 61,593 short (i.e., a net negative 61,593 contracts, and hence the 'lowest' NET position since Oct 2010?)

"61,593 contracts. Ted Butler now confirms that this is the highest NET position since October of 2010."

CPE · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:41am

the Pig

The DXY is looking toppy to me, if this bear market rally has run it's course then linen prices are about to rise. Gotta fund the free shit army somehow.

infometron · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:45am


I call it the "highest" because they are ALWAYS short. So, for me, a NET position is higher as it grows more negative.

Dr. P. Metals · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:46am

I think

they mean "highest net short position".

infometron · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:47am

@ Craig Re: Semantics

Got it! Thanks!

realitybiter · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:48am

Dr P - MCP

It was bound to happen. I suspect that rare earths are bargains. like oil. like pms. like anything REAL.

BarnacleBill · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:48am

Stockman's the Man!

If there was anyone in the U.S., if given the power, to straighten out what a frigging mess our Republic has become, he's the Man!

However, after reading the article regarding Greece rejecting anything to do with the EU, I'm unsure if the potential geopolitical/financial play by either Russia or China was considered?

CPE · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:48am


This is NOT how a central planner should run a financial system!

erewenguy · Feb 3, 2015 - 11:52am

Hang in there Craig

We're getting toward the finish line.

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