This Is Getting Fun Again

50
Tue, Jan 20, 2015 - 11:52am

Gold up. Silver up. Miners up. Bonds up. Stocks down (sorry paperbugs). As we begin what will be a very interesting and volatile week, it's finally getting fun to look at the charts again.

Just a quick snapshot as I begin typing...

Gold is UP $14 at $1291.

Silver is UP 13¢ at $17.88.

The HUI index is UP seven points at 208.

The S&P is down seven points. The Dow is down 93.

WTI Crude is down $2 at $47.13.

And bonds are rallying hard again with the 10-year note falling to 1.77% and the 30-year Long Bond making new all-time lows at just 2.37%...an incredibly FLAT spread of just 60 basis points.

This is all very exciting so lets start with the good news.

I mentioned last week that the area around $1260 was a critical and important resistance point. Not only was it the trendline connecting the two highs of March and July 2014, it was also about $60 above the long-term, primary trendline from 2013 that we've been following so closely for so long. Back in March and June, The Cartel had attacked at these levels...failure to do so now would/could/might indicate a failure and final breakdown of their current suppression efforts.

We all know about negative GOFO, the physical floor at $1150 and the closing triangle. As I mentioned in that interview last week with Rory, could the Swiss de-pegging be the "first cracks in the central banking facade" and "might this every man for himself" idea take hold and shatter the cooperation to suppress gold, too? Whether or not The Bullion Bank Cartel put up a fight at $1260 could very well be your first real indicator of systemic change. Well, well, well...look what has happened since.

Not only has gold surged through $1260, it has also surged through the always-significant $1280 and now is pressing toward $1300! Silver has also surged to new "recovery" highs and has already printed a few trades above $18! And the week is just beginning!!

And the weekly charts are really exciting. IF/WHEN this rally continues and presses through the lows set after the massive, contrived selloff of April 2013 (20 in gold, in silver), it will become abundantly clear to anyone willing to objectively look that a massive floor and reversal has been set.

And the HUI looks good, too. It is back above 202 at 207 and a couple of close here might really begin to light a fire under things.

OK, all of that said (typed), here's the bad news (sort of)...

You KNOW that, in the short term, they're going to come after us. Even though prices have sprung from incredibly low and over-sold levels, the rallies have been steep and sharp and The Banks have had to issue paper like crazy in their attempts to manage the ascent. In the last CoT period (1/7-1/13), The Banks issued 14,000 new naked shorts for a total NET change of 15,000 contracts. And, again, this was through last Tuesday with price at 34 and open interest at 402,108. Well, Hells Bells! As of right now with another CoT survey looming this afternoon, price is higher and open interest has grown by at least 22,000 contracts. Those new 22,000 contracts are almost entirely Spec buying and Commercial shorting so the CoT, as of this instant, is very likely the most negative and "bearish" that it has been in over a year.

Additionally, any new Cartel shorts applied to raid price back down after the close today have a full week to get covered back up as the next CoT survey won't be taken until next Tuesday.

And here's the deal....ECBQE is no longer a Turdville secret. Yes, we connected the dots pretty early with the Swiss NIRP announcement back in December but now EVERYONE is expecting some form of ECBQE announcement on Thursday. Oh sure, there will almost certainly be one but can't can't you see what's coming next?

  • "Yes the ECB announced their own QE but it wasn't as much as anticipated..."
  • "The ECB disappointed the markets today by only announcing a QE plan of $XXXB euro..."
  • "Draghi said this was only temporary and the plan will be ended even before it begins <sarc>"...

Or, heaven forbid, we're all wrong and the ECB does nothing. In any event, attempts will almost certainly be made to smash and raid price back down....away from $1320, below $1300 and back under $1280...in a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of mindset. Don't you just know that this is what's going to happen? Just don't be caught flat-footed.

Now back to the good news...

This is all short-term stuff and it means nothing in The Big Picture. We still have:

  • Euro and central banking defections
  • Extremely tight physical supply
  • Ongoing repatriation movement spreading all over Europe
  • Incredible, surging Chinese demand in the new year
  • Hot War resuming in Ukraine
  • Crumbling commodity and equity markets
  • Worldwide free-falling interest rates
  • ZIRP and NIRP

So let The Forces of Darkness writhe and struggle in their death throes. They are fighting a losing battle and their ultimate destruction is assured. Instead you and I will patiently continue to stack and prepare for the eventuality of a new global financial paradigm. As I've stated repeatedly, your physical metal may be down in "price" but it has never been more valuable. This statement has never been more true and appropriate than it is at present.

Go now and prepare for a very interesting week ahead.

TF

About the Author

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  50 Comments

  Refresh
Dr. P. Metals
Jan 20, 2015 - 11:12pm

@ArtL

What is this "rest of world" that you speak of?

/s (<-- this added just for CPE!)

ArtL
Jan 20, 2015 - 11:03pm

POTUS State of the Union Speech

I listened to the POTUS tonight on NPR and was struck by the difference between the talking political heads (from both parties) and their point of view and concerns after the speech. The economy is great, sure we could use more jobs, but there was absolutely no mention of any financial clouds. Most of the US seems to be in a different universe of concerns from what we on this TFMetals web are concerned about (world financial currency reset.) I can imagine it already where the talking heads are be lined up to say "We never saw it coming" when referring to the USD currency reset.

.After the speech, I was thrilled to see a solid $18 handle for silver and a reduction of the GSR to a 71 handle.

Adam29
Jan 20, 2015 - 4:56pm

Mr Fix

I agree with the recommendation to avoid orthopedic surgery at all costs. I have chronic spine issues and I have found good chiropractic care and physical therapy to be helpful. This may help with your recovery and healing. Mr Fix needs fixin'.

Silver Sooner
Jan 20, 2015 - 3:50pm

Thanks, SS

We are all in your debt for keeping us up-to-date.

I'm going to C&P your comments to the current public thread so that I can tweet out the link.

SS121
Jan 20, 2015 - 3:42pm

Closing the plant, the clarifying effect of milestones

The system which has long been nothing more than fake charts and rhyming stories has lost it's audience. The world still operates within the system but even those who are the most oblivious to it's end no longer feel secure and comfy.

The death of the system and return of Silver and Gold to their global monetary role is much like a big industrial plant closing down.

  • not everybody knows about the closing at first
  • lifers get panicky
  • everybody from management to the chinese get blamed in angry impromptu mob sessions
  • denial is rampant as the plant is still fully operational,
  • rumors that it will be saved and remain open abound.
  • people try 'cheer together' a way for the employees to save the plant
  • etc etc...

all while these muddled confused reactions are taking place, the plant IS in the process of "NO $h!7" closing, and this is where the beauty of Milestones comes in.

even while everyone is showing up to work, and the plant is still operating, at some point the snack bar closes, then the landscaping ends, then there are cardboard boxes sitting everywhere. These little milestones help reality set in.

still the same people in the same place, but the conversations change. daydream conversations about "20 years from now on our pontoon boat" no longer play. the moods change to more personal denials and worries. All unnecessary mind you, but that's just people.

then the larger milestones hit. Shipping stops shipping product and starts shipping assets, and the more forward looking marketing deparment is now completely GONE!!

and on and on it goes, the people all muddling along until a milestones gives them a good jolt of reality.

Our Global Monetary "System" is little different. yet here we are, almost to the point of turning out the lights, and on go the stories about what might happen if this economic metric goes this way or that. it's just people. And it doesn't do any good to go over and pull somebody out of their cubicle that is fully stocked with certificates of achievement and vacation pics, on an otherwise empty floor. But the system is ending.

the fake charts and scripted economic stories are still playing, analyze them til they stop if you must. But there is nothing behind them. the world has already drifted away.

I'm closing it out. Any Silver and Gold you may take with you and keep. the charts, reports, system information, ...it's all going in the fire.

Close Out - this is what's happening

there will be milestones- The SNB was a milestone, the silver chart no longer setting the price for physical transactions will be a milestone.(all "market" analysis conversations will cease) Milestones are good. I've done this before.

matt_
Jan 20, 2015 - 3:38pm

Gold in Foreign Currencies is Going Parabolic - Frank Holmes

New Cambridge House video that I haven't seen posted here. Frank Holmes discusses a number of macro issues, including oil and gold. Vanessa Collette is easy on the eyes, so you can turn the sound off if you don't want to hear the news.

Gold in Foreign Currencies is Going Parabolic - Frank Holmes
pbreed
Jan 20, 2015 - 3:33pm

I see a 18 handle on silver...

I've woken up into some alternate universe....

I see a 18 handle on silver....

unfortunately the 1300 cap on gold seems to be holding.

Mr. Fix
Jan 20, 2015 - 3:28pm

This is quickly becoming “game over”.

CPE,

I agree that anything written by a bank is deeply suspect. Their only remaining mission is to deflect guilt onto some Patsy.

I think central banks have lost control of the dollar, I agree with Jim Willie's assertion that the USD will continue to climb, then suddenly die. As far as precious metals, there is still one more epic slam down left in this game, and I seriously doubt COT have any relevance in the long term, since crashing the system is the intended outcome.

None of these guys ever intend to square up any of their debts.

QE 4 is only a possibility if the bankers need more time to stock up their underground bunkers, as it might buy them another week or so. But the system is terminally ill, and does not need any more triggers to collapse.

I just listened to the video on the other new thread, it's pretty good.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Mr. Fix
Jan 20, 2015 - 3:25pm

@ James Crighton

My wife has been demanding that I get “a doctor's opinion”

Now I have one!

Thank you!

James CrightonMr. Fix
Jan 20, 2015 - 3:20pm

@Mr. Fix and surgeons

Good man, Mr F. I am a retired surgeon and know the story from the inside - avoid surgery unless absolutely necessary - and, even then, make sure you get a decent surgeon - some are really crap.

jc

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, Sep 20, 2020 - 8:36pm
by Trail Trekker, Sep 20, 2020 - 7:35pm
by Alembic, Sep 20, 2020 - 7:31pm
randomness