This Is Getting Fun Again

Tue, Jan 20, 2015 - 11:52am

Gold up. Silver up. Miners up. Bonds up. Stocks down (sorry paperbugs). As we begin what will be a very interesting and volatile week, it's finally getting fun to look at the charts again.

Just a quick snapshot as I begin typing...

Gold is UP $14 at $1291.

Silver is UP 13¢ at $17.88.

The HUI index is UP seven points at 208.

The S&P is down seven points. The Dow is down 93.

WTI Crude is down $2 at $47.13.

And bonds are rallying hard again with the 10-year note falling to 1.77% and the 30-year Long Bond making new all-time lows at just incredibly FLAT spread of just 60 basis points.

This is all very exciting so lets start with the good news.

I mentioned last week that the area around $1260 was a critical and important resistance point. Not only was it the trendline connecting the two highs of March and July 2014, it was also about $60 above the long-term, primary trendline from 2013 that we've been following so closely for so long. Back in March and June, The Cartel had attacked at these levels...failure to do so now would/could/might indicate a failure and final breakdown of their current suppression efforts.

We all know about negative GOFO, the physical floor at $1150 and the closing triangle. As I mentioned in that interview last week with Rory, could the Swiss de-pegging be the "first cracks in the central banking facade" and "might this every man for himself" idea take hold and shatter the cooperation to suppress gold, too? Whether or not The Bullion Bank Cartel put up a fight at $1260 could very well be your first real indicator of systemic change. Well, well, well...look what has happened since.

Not only has gold surged through $1260, it has also surged through the always-significant $1280 and now is pressing toward $1300! Silver has also surged to new "recovery" highs and has already printed a few trades above $18! And the week is just beginning!!

And the weekly charts are really exciting. IF/WHEN this rally continues and presses through the lows set after the massive, contrived selloff of April 2013 ($1320 in gold, $22 in silver), it will become abundantly clear to anyone willing to objectively look that a massive floor and reversal has been set.

And the HUI looks good, too. It is back above 202 at 207 and a couple of close here might really begin to light a fire under things.

OK, all of that said (typed), here's the bad news (sort of)...

You KNOW that, in the short term, they're going to come after us. Even though prices have sprung from incredibly low and over-sold levels, the rallies have been steep and sharp and The Banks have had to issue paper like crazy in their attempts to manage the ascent. In the last CoT period (1/7-1/13), The Banks issued 14,000 new naked shorts for a total NET change of 15,000 contracts. And, again, this was through last Tuesday with price at $1234 and open interest at 402,108. Well, Hells Bells! As of right now with another CoT survey looming this afternoon, price is $60 higher and open interest has grown by at least 22,000 contracts. Those new 22,000 contracts are almost entirely Spec buying and Commercial shorting so the CoT, as of this instant, is very likely the most negative and "bearish" that it has been in over a year.

Additionally, any new Cartel shorts applied to raid price back down after the close today have a full week to get covered back up as the next CoT survey won't be taken until next Tuesday.

And here's the deal....ECBQE is no longer a Turdville secret. Yes, we connected the dots pretty early with the Swiss NIRP announcement back in December but now EVERYONE is expecting some form of ECBQE announcement on Thursday. Oh sure, there will almost certainly be one but can't can't you see what's coming next?

  • "Yes the ECB announced their own QE but it wasn't as much as anticipated..."
  • "The ECB disappointed the markets today by only announcing a QE plan of $XXXB euro..."
  • "Draghi said this was only temporary and the plan will be ended even before it begins <sarc>"...

Or, heaven forbid, we're all wrong and the ECB does nothing. In any event, attempts will almost certainly be made to smash and raid price back down....away from $1320, below $1300 and back under $ a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of mindset. Don't you just know that this is what's going to happen? Just don't be caught flat-footed.

Now back to the good news...

This is all short-term stuff and it means nothing in The Big Picture. We still have:

  • Euro and central banking defections
  • Extremely tight physical supply
  • Ongoing repatriation movement spreading all over Europe
  • Incredible, surging Chinese demand in the new year
  • Hot War resuming in Ukraine
  • Crumbling commodity and equity markets
  • Worldwide free-falling interest rates
  • ZIRP and NIRP

So let The Forces of Darkness writhe and struggle in their death throes. They are fighting a losing battle and their ultimate destruction is assured. Instead you and I will patiently continue to stack and prepare for the eventuality of a new global financial paradigm. As I've stated repeatedly, your physical metal may be down in "price" but it has never been more valuable. This statement has never been more true and appropriate than it is at present.

Go now and prepare for a very interesting week ahead.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 20, 2015 - 11:53am


Gosh it is nice to be back!

Great movement... what does it portend for the future!!

Island Teal
Jan 20, 2015 - 11:57am


Gooooood Morning 18 !!!!!!

Dr. P. Metals
Jan 20, 2015 - 11:58am


(or 1st loser) :)

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:01pm


It's all up!


Jan 20, 2015 - 12:03pm

lots of resistance at $18

I can handle that. gives me a chance to get more popcorn and get ready for the second quarter to begin. the game is far from over and the home team has scored.

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:06pm


But isn't the U.S. dollar stronger

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:08pm

This is fascinating

If you have some spare time, this is a very interesting listen. At around the 10:00 mark, they discuss stocks, gold and silver:

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:09pm

Damn 1st????

I Needed Something Positive This Morning, Thanks Turd. Looking good for the PM's this morning, so hold on and let's see what happens. Keep Stacking

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:15pm

Gun Shy

I really hope the manipulation is cracking...but these past few years have me so cynical regarding any form of rally. Fingers crossed!!!

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:15pm

great point T

As world events get sketchy- stack gets more valuable!

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:17pm

The Big Picture

Mr. Furguson, in your Big Picture list you can add India buying gold hand over fist.

Steve Silver
Jan 20, 2015 - 12:21pm

Mope at $1300 and $18

Boy the popcorn sure tastes good. 

Jim Sinclair came up with a beautiful way to describe current economic policy. MOPE or Management of Perception Economics. The goverment reports bogus economic statistics as do companies etc and we have cnbs with their cheerleaders and pom poms. Then if people feel better they will spend more money they don't have. But thats OK cause the FEDs will print money we don't have. 

So to the public that doesn't pay much attention the numbers that matter are the big round numbers. So the banksters should fight at $1300 gold and $18 silver. If they don't put up a fight there I guess I'll have to buy even more popcorn.

p.s. A good article from Paul Mylcreest on zero hedge concerning Exter's pyramid with charts showing how quality assets have been outperforming over leveraged assets.

Mr. Fix
Jan 20, 2015 - 12:21pm

Are we having fun yet?

Something that I failed to mention over the past day, is that while I was playing with my computer on Sunday night, after an entire day stuck indoors with freezing rain, the power went out.

Refusing to just sit there in the dark, I went outside to hook up my generator. Upon returning to the house, I slipped and fell on the ice.

Since then, I have been in massive pain, so I broke down and went to an “urgent care facility” to have my shoulder x-rayed.

I've just been informed that I have a broken clavicle. (I even have the pictures to prove it)

They wrapped me up in an ace bandage to “immobilize my shoulder”, and now for the life of me, I can't figure out how to get it off.

So much for “having it all figured out”.blush

By the way, I was studying the topic of “karma” when this all started Sunday night.

Is it synchronicity or coincidence? wink

The nurse practitioner told me I need an orthopedic surgeon, but that simply is not going to happen. (I am uninsured).

I've been informed that if I can “stay still” for six weeks, it will heal itself.

I might actually do a lot more posting. devil

Fortunately, my bills are all paid, and as a direct result of being well prepared for whatever financial Armageddon could occur in the future, I'm not particularly worried about not working for the next six weeks.

My house is fully stocked, and I don't actually have to go anywhere, or do anything.

Ain't life grand? angel

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:21pm

And if you haven't seen this yet

This one will really leave you shaking your head. Incredible and great work by ZH:

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:25pm


Just booked profits here on about 80% of my short-term trades, both miners and metals... this means a further rise is a high probability!

Still, I think Turd's caution is quite appropriate, volumes starting to tail off on this rise and momentum seeming to stall. I ain't going short, but will be waiting to see what shakes out over the next few days, greedily hoping for a beatdown to start inching back in hopefully at lower prices.

As always, the stack is untouchable, as it should be. Good luck out there!

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:32pm

tweet from Andy

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:32pm

I feel good

Whatever ends up happening, I feel like I've done my part to prepare myself and my family. I like coming online here and hearing from like minded folks who prepare for the low probability events as well as the likely (near term). I kind of feel sorry for the ostriches and sheeple but they bring it on themselves. On the bright side, if they don't starve to death they'll be tighter with a (silver) dollar than my dad by the time this is over.

Maybe when we start all over again, we'll remember not to make the same mistakes that got us here. I have a different idea of them than most people, but I think it makes sense.

  • No censorship of any form or type - We all know there are great reasons for censorship and there are things every single one of us wants censored. But if you censor for a good reason you'll censor for a bad one too and then we're all reading Rupert.
  • Principle of self ownership - I own me. Not the state, ME. I can do anything I want so long as no other is harmed.
  • Competition in government - There's a reason the Constitution limited federal government - to provide for competition in government services. You don't like the laws where you live - vote to change them, or move where the laws suit you. Cradle to grave or pure libertarianism, there's a state for you.
  • Sunset dates on all laws - federal, state and local no longer than 10yrs for capital crimes, 5 years for felonies, 1 year for misdemeanors.
  • No legislation to be longer than one page, all legislation to be read aloud in full session of legislating body, all voters' votes to be recorded and made publicly available at election time.
  • All existing federal regulations to be eliminated - they exist only to bar market entry and favor national interests over local interests.
  • All existing federal laws not directly related to Constitutional functions eliminated - they exist only to prevent competition in government.

And there you go. Less than a page, but it could restore America to greatness if we could implement it. Alas, someone must become the beast in order to tame it.

Safety Dan
Jan 20, 2015 - 12:32pm

Expect more Swiss National

Expect more Swiss National Bank episodes in 2015 as central banks struggle to fight volatile capital flows, says IMF's chief economist

Jan 20, 2015 - 12:58pm

New, comprehensive Ukraine update

From ZH:


SilverSooner, if you're out there, what do you think?

Additionally, this should make tonight's JBSFC required listening...

Jan 20, 2015 - 1:03pm


Remember how SS told us back on Sunday that the story about Kiev forces retaking the Donetsk airport was nothing but propaganda? Check that ZH link for confirmation. Again, thanks to SS for providing us with such accurate updates. Turdville truly is like no place else on the internet!

p.s. How would you like to see this type of oncoming traffic on your local highway? Holy Moly!!

Jan 20, 2015 - 1:08pm

No More Quarters....

as an attempt to yet again deceive the general public I think something nutty like doing away with quarterly reporting will be replaced with Trimester reporting with the excuse that it will save time & money but the real reason will be to provide a disconnect to the linear analysis of past data

or im off my damn rocker 
:D ....quite possible

James Crighton Mr. Fix
Jan 20, 2015 - 1:11pm

@MrFix - # clavicle

Mr Fix - stay away from the orthopaedic surgeons - they will want to operate and "internally fix" your clavicle - unecessary, expensive and could get infrected (and then your'e in trouble). Don't take pain pills unless to help you sleep (the pain is there to tell you what not to do - if it is painful, don't do it). Good luck.


Jan 20, 2015 - 1:15pm

some of my stack is above water

Encouraging to say the least!

Mr. Fix
Jan 20, 2015 - 1:17pm

@ James Crighton

 Thank you for your sound advice.

I already had an aversion to doctors in general, and getting butchered by one is not on my agenda.

Jan 20, 2015 - 1:35pm

re: Ukraine

Ill have an update in about an hour. Things are not going well for Ukraine.

Jan 20, 2015 - 1:40pm

Danke, SS

At your convenience, my friend.

Jan 20, 2015 - 1:41pm

And the POSX is once again over 93!

As the euro falls to 115.477

Also, interestingly, the yen is down over 1% while gold is UP over 1%. Hmmm.

This is an excellent chart as the scales of the vertical axes are almost identical. The utter breakdown of the correlation, which has dominated since 2012 and was nearly 1:1 from July through November, likely portends BIG changes. More in today's podcast.

Jan 20, 2015 - 1:43pm

SNB reset

from Bill Holter's perspective.

"In plain English, the Swiss just yelled FIRE …while standing in the exit!"

Jan 20, 2015 - 1:44pm


Turd, I hope you listened to the Doc's (Janda) piece on vaccines.

You have to stack healthy cells before the Ag is worth anything.

Left Field
Jan 20, 2015 - 1:48pm

Mr Fix

Sorry to hear about your fall. I had the same break decades ago. I can still remember the pain. I found it especially difficult to keep still and get healed.I have missed your posts of late. So, the good news is I may hear more from you. On the bright side, Spring has not come yet and you can consider this healing time a form of hibernation.with best wishes, left field

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