Moon River

58
Tue, Jan 13, 2015 - 12:03pm

After being poked, prodded, felt-up, electrocuted, weighed and measured, it's good to be back behind the MacBook. It's also good to see silver rally just as predicted in last night's podcast.

Let's see I've:

  • Lost about a pint of blood
  • Donated some wee-wee
  • Had every orifice inspected (to my chagrin, the Digital RE is NOT a more high tech version of an Analog RE)
  • Been hooked up for an EKG
  • Nearly froze to death in my exam dress
  • Arm is already sore from my tetanus "update"

This getting old stuff is for the birds. And I've never felt like a "mid-life crisis" before but I'm going to be 49 in a few weeks and I'm NOT too excited about it...at all.

Anyway...I'm ready to get back to work...and what do I see? A continued rally in silver! In case you missed it last evening, this chart from the podcast perfectly illustrates the classic pattern of cap-and-cap but, if unable to press price lower, an impending fallback to new resistance at higher ground:

And that's exactly what happened! Almost as soon as the Globex re-opened last evening, silver shot higher and finally broke decisively through the $16.65 cap. Now you can say that all of Turd's TA is just nonsense and useless in a manipulated market and blah, blah, blah. But there's a reason why I have a website in the first place and a big part of that reason is having the experience to recognize short-term patterns.

Look, silver is currently UP 61¢ to $17.18. That's more than 3%! Why? The other precious metals are only up 0.5% and crude is down 0.75%. Silver should be up about a dime. Instead, it's UP 3.86%. Again, WHY?

Go back and listen to last night's podcast. I explained to you in detail why silver was about to break free and why it would rush to "catch up" to gold after the capping. It was already relatively undervalued by about 30¢ due to the cap. Today, we've reclaimed that 30¢ and then some. The Silver Cartel has fallen back to higher ground just as they always do and they've set up their next line of defense right where I told you it was going to be, near $17.25. I have a high so far today of $17.21. What about any of this is surprising? Once again, here's your chart from last evening:

OK, so now let's update the charts. Recall that I gave us 5-7 days to have this play out and, having reached our first price objective, I'd expect silver to consolidate at this new level before moving higher again...toward it's first really tough test of 2015, near $17.70.

As we've also discussed, gold was stymied today right near the highs of $1239 seen back on Dec 9 and Dec 10. Again, The Cartel DOES NOT want to allow higher highs, giving the appearance of a low and recovery. However, we've actually exceeded $1239 with a couple of early morning highs near $1244 so I think we are, in fact going to close above $1239 soon (maybe today), setting gold up for it's first really tough test of 2015, in the area near $1260.

And while the HUI is working off a little "overboughtedness" today, it is encouragingly staying well above its 100-day moving average. As discussed last evening, all of this leads me to expect the miners to surge higher again, as well, likely peaking in the area near 200-202 at the same time silver moves to $17.60 and gold to $1260.

More later. Thanks for your patience.

TF

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  58 Comments

ned braden TF · Jan 13, 2015 - 12:13pm

I hear ya, TF

Regrettably things get no better with age....Trust me

CPE · Jan 13, 2015 - 12:14pm

It's not all bad

Don't worry Turd, the 5 0 looks like fun!

Video unavailable
ArtL · Jan 13, 2015 - 12:16pm

Silver is moving up

while the miners not so much. perhaps this will a pause that refreshes for the miners. perhaps it is a good idea to step aside from JNUG and see what happens.

Barfly · Jan 13, 2015 - 12:22pm

Pulling for....

A full $1 up move today.

Keg · Jan 13, 2015 - 12:24pm

Getting old

Turd, getting older has its issues, most of them negative. But getting old sure as heck beats the alternative.

mike97 · Jan 13, 2015 - 12:33pm

Good Silver Forecast

Congrats on the great silver forecast.

I just hope the Cartel doesn't dump the 2 million ounces it withdrew from SLV yesterday. The GOFO keeps getting more positive so I guess the boyz also found some more gold to hold and drive down prices.

nadgeskaul · Jan 13, 2015 - 12:45pm

Dr. Copper Hinting Recession

I have heard, from numerous sources, that copper is often looked at by smart money as the key indicator for economic health, or lack thereof. 

Well, it's now at its lowest level since the financial crisis.

Look for copper to confirm the oil fiasco is no joke...and set the stage for the next meltdown.

· Jan 13, 2015 - 12:47pm

Ukraine Update

I haven't posted any updates on Ukraine in a while because, frankly, nothing has been happening worth mentioning here. But that's changed in the last few days, and as Turd/ZH mentioned today...things are a'changin.

- After a very quiet November/December, Ukraine has dramatically increased the shelling of Donetsk. It started on New Years...only moments after Donetsk rang in the new year. We were actually talking to the fam on Skype and about 10 minutes after midnight, the shelling started. It's really been the last 3 days where the shelling has been almost non-stop all day--this after virtually nothing during Nov/Dec. Parents said that Mon/Tue was the worst it's ever been.

- Yesterday, Russian FM Lavrov said that Russia sees indications that Ukraine is making preparations to launch an offensive in the next few days. Commentary from one of the best Russian sites (Colonel Cassad) indicates that Lavrov's comments are most likely an attempt to discourage any offensive--ie, "we see what you're doing..."

- There was also planned another Presidential-level meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan akin to the Normandy meeting between Putin, Merkel, Poroshenko and Hollande. It was announced today that the meeting won't happen as the FM's can't reach preliminary agreement. Thus the diplomatic efforts are at a stand-still. (as an aside, any negotiations without the US are for show and won't reach any lasting settlement to the conflict).

- It's also been reported that Ukraine now possesses the "anti-fire radar batteries" (specialized radars that can pinpoint launch points of various artillery and rockets). What this gives the Ukrainians is a much-improved battlefield awareness for when Novorussian forces return fire, the location of their artillery is instantly pinpointed.

- Weather...for this time of year in Ukraine, the ground is pretty soft still. Normally, it's cold enough that the ground is hard. But one thing unique to Ukraine is that the soil there is unbelievably fertile and loamy--and when it's wet, it's soft as soup (think about Napoleon invading Russia prior to the winter...he got stuck bad). When the spring comes, it's a black, muddy mess. Anyway, weather conditions could play a role in what happens next...

- Various analysts (Saker and Cassad) have felt that IF Ukraine launches a new offensive, it will be a very short and fast strike intending to rush to a more favorable position in the theater and then equally fast returning to the negotiating table from a position of strength.

- This line-of-thought is supported by the recent decline in oil prices and the seemingly complicit statements from Saudi Arabia that there will be no change in output as oil sheds over 60% of its price for no valid reason. IE, the US and complicit partners are intentionally driving the price of oil down to hurt the Russian economy and foment dissent against the Putin government. Yes, the US wants to hurt the average Russian person so that he/she will direct their discontent against the current Russian regime. The problem with this tactic is that it's destroying the shale gas industry and sub $60 oil isn't sustainable by Saudi and others past the summertime.

- So, in a quick recap, nothing has changed to indicate the US has abandoned the Russian provocation tact--all signs point to the US/Ukraine pushing for more conflict in the region to suck Russia in. Russia meanwhile is playing for time and stalling. These tactics by both sides haven't changed. Yet, time is on Russia's side and is not for the US/Ukraine. Thus, it's likely Ukraine will do something to induce Russia to act before the sub $60 oil card becomes cost prohibitive.

- Not saying anything is imminent (Lord knows my track record sucks)...just passing along that things might change soon. Then again, maybe not.

PS, IF Ukraine launches a short and intense offensive, one area that seems to be likely is the Petrovsky district of east Donetsk. The area around Gorlovka could also be the focus of such an attack.

PS2, One other new development is that Donbass residents are now required to possess special documentation to enter/leave the ATO. But, you can't get this documentation inside the ATO. So, the residents that are in the ATO are trapped from entering Ukraine. They can still go to Russia, but getting outside the ATO to the North or West is now cut-off.

J · Jan 13, 2015 - 12:48pm

Excellent

SS: Your contributions to our general awareness and understanding of Ukraine Crisis are invaluable. Thank you for all you do.

As an aside, given all that SS just added, tonight's JB-SFC should be interesting.

Steve Silver · Jan 13, 2015 - 12:51pm

Gold and Silver up to December highs and gold stocks down 2.5%

Today both gold and silver are up and trading right at the December highs. With silver up huge over 3 percent. So of course the gold and silver stocks are up big. Oops they are down 2.5%. What a crock. Anyone who says this isn't manipulation is retarded or a liar. Obviously the banksters are trying to frighten buyers away from breaking out above the December highs because then you would have a higher high and the specs would feel the water is safe to get on board.

· Jan 13, 2015 - 12:53pm

To SS' point

CPE · Jan 13, 2015 - 1:02pm

Turd

Posted a question earlier, but I think it got lost in the other posts.

Is it too early to predict the sweet spot in Feb gold options?

thx!

· Jan 13, 2015 - 1:20pm

Longtime readers know that I

Longtime readers know that I think Erdogan is a bad, bad dude. More confirmation: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-13/turkish-presidents-stunning-ou...

SteveW · Jan 13, 2015 - 1:22pm

@ SS: Russian public

Since the rouble/USD has mirrored oil/USD then the price of oil in roubles has not effectively changed. So the Russian public are not paying more for heating etc. and their lifestyle is, I imagine, little changed except for the huge increase in imported goods.

Thus Putin will retain popular support although the same is unlike true among his elite opponents.

CPE · Jan 13, 2015 - 1:27pm

Not too early at all

Feb15 gold option expiry is two weeks from today, the 27th.

Without question, the target at this point is $1250. With $1250 call open interest at 8,393 (that's a lot!), The Banks will very likely fight tooth-and-nail to close price below there. No way in hell they want to allow $1300+ as the call open interest there is a whopping 14,112.

On the flip side, there's also a decent amount of OI in the Feb $1250 put at 2,397.

In conclusion, it's unusual to have such a clear line of demarcation. In the absence of extraordinary, unforeseen developments in the next two weeks, I'd put the chances of a 1/27 gold close of $125o +5 as very high.

See for yourself here: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_settlements...

SteveW · Jan 13, 2015 - 1:27pm

Charlie Hebo

When balaclava clad professional hit men are so clumsy as to leave id in their getaway vehicle then questions are naturally raised. Since the brothers that either committed the atrocity or were set up are now dead then this remains yet another unresolved whodunnit.

erewenguy · Jan 13, 2015 - 1:29pm

Trying to paint double tops

Trying to paint double tops in GLD and SLV.

Pressure is on here.

Bein' right

Sittin' tight

SteveW · Jan 13, 2015 - 1:31pm

Chinese New Year

Since there have been several comments I thought I'd post the straight dope.

New moon is Wednesday February 18, so all retain buying will be completed by that day.

Thursday February 19 is the first day of the year of the sheep and both Thursday and Friday are holidays making at least a 4 day weekend.

· Jan 13, 2015 - 1:34pm

@SteveW

I've also seen some analysis that indicates because Russia sells its exports in dollars (income) and that their inputs are in Rubles (expenses), that the low oil price isn't hurting the economy as bad as one might think. Where it IS hurting is at the grocery store.

We have one friend who is a Ukraine ex-pat who is currently living in Moscow. She tells us that the currency impacts are quite noticeable when it's time to buy groceries. So, the Ruble's fall is definitely felt by the average person--no doubt.

The KEY thing is that Russians are VERY aware who is causing this and thus are directing their angst at the US govt and NOT at Putin's government.

It's a dangerous game to foment rebellion. You'd better be sure you're going to get the effect you want.

SteveW · Jan 13, 2015 - 1:39pm

Yamana Gold

has announced a secondary issue of 49,100,000 shares at CAD $5.30 for gross proceeds of just over CAD $260,000,000 closing about Feb 3. The company already has 880 million shares outstanding.

Yamana is currently trading at CAD $5.02.

· Jan 13, 2015 - 1:52pm

And we've been all over this

And we've been all over this charade since the cover story of the "trapped Yazidis" was posted back in August: https://www.cnn.com/2014/08/08/world/meast/iraq-yazidi-people/

It was only a matter of time: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-13/boots-ground-obama-seek-author...

waxybilldupp · Jan 13, 2015 - 1:59pm

Oopsie! ...

Just came back to CNBS after watching some fishing shows. Looks like stocks kinda sharted their pants. Nearly a 400 point swing for the DOW. CNBS'ers were sure giggly this morning before I clicked away. Now, not so much. Hard to put a positive spin on a 400 point dump-a-thon. I find it amusing.

On a more positive note, the weather looks to be turning for the better in a couple days. It will be good to get back out ice fishing.

wax off

AIJ · Jan 13, 2015 - 2:00pm

The Dow Reversal

can't be a good sign. For TPTB

Good for the metals in the long run.

gold slut · Jan 13, 2015 - 2:01pm

My goodness, that has to sting!

Just seen the losses on Bitcoin, ouch....

This is weird, I am talking about something getting the crap bashed out of it and I'm not talking about gold. Really weird.

SS121 · Jan 13, 2015 - 2:02pm

interesting tactical blunder

Tyler Durden's picture

Turkish President's Stunning Outburst: The French Are Behind The Charlie Hebdo Massacre; Mossad Blamed

--

here we have the London Bros. media coming out and headlining blame for their own team for what actually was their own team's false flag op. this is a more sophisticated "advanced maneuver" designed to get the story out there BUT accompanied by a bunch of distracting subtext stuff for people to immediately go to when it comes up in conversation.

2 problems

1- this line is too sophisticated for their audience

2- false flag fatigue. the cumulative effect of all their prior false flag flops has taken it's toll. once a person sees through just one, they look back at the others, and "aaawwww hell"...now almost everybody knows who's really behind ALL of them.

Ferd Torgerson SteveW · Jan 13, 2015 - 2:03pm

@ Steve W: Yamana Gold

Saw that news this morning. One piece of bad news after another with that management.

Sold my last shares in AUY about an hour ago. Hope the longs that remain have their shares go to $100 but I won't be there to see it if they do.

Ferd

erewenguy · Jan 13, 2015 - 2:11pm

Bottom is in

Bottom is in

Bollocks · Jan 13, 2015 - 2:13pm
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