Moon River

58
Tue, Jan 13, 2015 - 12:03pm

After being poked, prodded, felt-up, electrocuted, weighed and measured, it's good to be back behind the MacBook. It's also good to see silver rally just as predicted in last night's podcast.

Let's see I've:

  • Lost about a pint of blood
  • Donated some wee-wee
  • Had every orifice inspected (to my chagrin, the Digital RE is NOT a more high tech version of an Analog RE)
  • Been hooked up for an EKG
  • Nearly froze to death in my exam dress
  • Arm is already sore from my tetanus "update"

This getting old stuff is for the birds. And I've never felt like a "mid-life crisis" before but I'm going to be 49 in a few weeks and I'm NOT too excited about it...at all.

Anyway...I'm ready to get back to work...and what do I see? A continued rally in silver! In case you missed it last evening, this chart from the podcast perfectly illustrates the classic pattern of cap-and-cap but, if unable to press price lower, an impending fallback to new resistance at higher ground:

And that's exactly what happened! Almost as soon as the Globex re-opened last evening, silver shot higher and finally broke decisively through the .65 cap. Now you can say that all of Turd's TA is just nonsense and useless in a manipulated market and blah, blah, blah. But there's a reason why I have a website in the first place and a big part of that reason is having the experience to recognize short-term patterns.

Look, silver is currently UP 61¢ to .18. That's more than 3%! Why? The other precious metals are only up 0.5% and crude is down 0.75%. Silver should be up about a dime. Instead, it's UP 3.86%. Again, WHY?

Go back and listen to last night's podcast. I explained to you in detail why silver was about to break free and why it would rush to "catch up" to gold after the capping. It was already relatively undervalued by about 30¢ due to the cap. Today, we've reclaimed that 30¢ and then some. The Silver Cartel has fallen back to higher ground just as they always do and they've set up their next line of defense right where I told you it was going to be, near .25. I have a high so far today of .21. What about any of this is surprising? Once again, here's your chart from last evening:

OK, so now let's update the charts. Recall that I gave us 5-7 days to have this play out and, having reached our first price objective, I'd expect silver to consolidate at this new level before moving higher again...toward it's first really tough test of 2015, near .70.

As we've also discussed, gold was stymied today right near the highs of 39 seen back on Dec 9 and Dec 10. Again, The Cartel DOES NOT want to allow higher highs, giving the appearance of a low and recovery. However, we've actually exceeded 39 with a couple of early morning highs near 44 so I think we are, in fact going to close above 39 soon (maybe today), setting gold up for it's first really tough test of 2015, in the area near 60.

And while the HUI is working off a little "overboughtedness" today, it is encouragingly staying well above its 100-day moving average. As discussed last evening, all of this leads me to expect the miners to surge higher again, as well, likely peaking in the area near 200-202 at the same time silver moves to .60 and gold to 60.

More later. Thanks for your patience.

TF

About the Author

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  58 Comments

Jan 13, 2015 - 12:07pm
Ned BradenTF
Jan 13, 2015 - 12:13pm

I hear ya, TF

Regrettably things get no better with age....Trust me

CPE
Jan 13, 2015 - 12:14pm

It's not all bad

Don't worry Turd, the 5 0 looks like fun!

Video unavailable
ArtL
Jan 13, 2015 - 12:16pm

Silver is moving up

while the miners not so much. perhaps this will a pause that refreshes for the miners. perhaps it is a good idea to step aside from JNUG and see what happens.

Barfly
Jan 13, 2015 - 12:22pm

Pulling for....

A full $1 up move today.

Keg
Jan 13, 2015 - 12:24pm

Getting old

Turd, getting older has its issues, most of them negative. But getting old sure as heck beats the alternative.

mike97
Jan 13, 2015 - 12:33pm

Good Silver Forecast

Congrats on the great silver forecast.

I just hope the Cartel doesn't dump the 2 million ounces it withdrew from SLV yesterday. The GOFO keeps getting more positive so I guess the boyz also found some more gold to hold and drive down prices.

nadgeskaul
Jan 13, 2015 - 12:45pm

Dr. Copper Hinting Recession

I have heard, from numerous sources, that copper is often looked at by smart money as the key indicator for economic health, or lack thereof.

Well, it's now at its lowest level since the financial crisis.

Look for copper to confirm the oil fiasco is no joke...and set the stage for the next meltdown.

Jan 13, 2015 - 12:45pm
Jan 13, 2015 - 12:47pm

Ukraine Update

I haven't posted any updates on Ukraine in a while because, frankly, nothing has been happening worth mentioning here. But that's changed in the last few days, and as Turd/ZH mentioned today...things are a'changin.

- After a very quiet November/December, Ukraine has dramatically increased the shelling of Donetsk. It started on New Years...only moments after Donetsk rang in the new year. We were actually talking to the fam on Skype and about 10 minutes after midnight, the shelling started. It's really been the last 3 days where the shelling has been almost non-stop all day--this after virtually nothing during Nov/Dec. Parents said that Mon/Tue was the worst it's ever been.

- Yesterday, Russian FM Lavrov said that Russia sees indications that Ukraine is making preparations to launch an offensive in the next few days. Commentary from one of the best Russian sites (Colonel Cassad) indicates that Lavrov's comments are most likely an attempt to discourage any offensive--ie, "we see what you're doing..."

- There was also planned another Presidential-level meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan akin to the Normandy meeting between Putin, Merkel, Poroshenko and Hollande. It was announced today that the meeting won't happen as the FM's can't reach preliminary agreement. Thus the diplomatic efforts are at a stand-still. (as an aside, any negotiations without the US are for show and won't reach any lasting settlement to the conflict).

- It's also been reported that Ukraine now possesses the "anti-fire radar batteries" (specialized radars that can pinpoint launch points of various artillery and rockets). What this gives the Ukrainians is a much-improved battlefield awareness for when Novorussian forces return fire, the location of their artillery is instantly pinpointed.

- Weather...for this time of year in Ukraine, the ground is pretty soft still. Normally, it's cold enough that the ground is hard. But one thing unique to Ukraine is that the soil there is unbelievably fertile and loamy--and when it's wet, it's soft as soup (think about Napoleon invading Russia prior to the winter...he got stuck bad). When the spring comes, it's a black, muddy mess. Anyway, weather conditions could play a role in what happens next...

- Various analysts (Saker and Cassad) have felt that IF Ukraine launches a new offensive, it will be a very short and fast strike intending to rush to a more favorable position in the theater and then equally fast returning to the negotiating table from a position of strength.

- This line-of-thought is supported by the recent decline in oil prices and the seemingly complicit statements from Saudi Arabia that there will be no change in output as oil sheds over 60% of its price for no valid reason. IE, the US and complicit partners are intentionally driving the price of oil down to hurt the Russian economy and foment dissent against the Putin government. Yes, the US wants to hurt the average Russian person so that he/she will direct their discontent against the current Russian regime. The problem with this tactic is that it's destroying the shale gas industry and sub $60 oil isn't sustainable by Saudi and others past the summertime.

- So, in a quick recap, nothing has changed to indicate the US has abandoned the Russian provocation tact--all signs point to the US/Ukraine pushing for more conflict in the region to suck Russia in. Russia meanwhile is playing for time and stalling. These tactics by both sides haven't changed. Yet, time is on Russia's side and is not for the US/Ukraine. Thus, it's likely Ukraine will do something to induce Russia to act before the sub $60 oil card becomes cost prohibitive.

- Not saying anything is imminent (Lord knows my track record sucks)...just passing along that things might change soon. Then again, maybe not.

PS, IF Ukraine launches a short and intense offensive, one area that seems to be likely is the Petrovsky district of east Donetsk. The area around Gorlovka could also be the focus of such an attack.

PS2, One other new development is that Donbass residents are now required to possess special documentation to enter/leave the ATO. But, you can't get this documentation inside the ATO. So, the residents that are in the ATO are trapped from entering Ukraine. They can still go to Russia, but getting outside the ATO to the North or West is now cut-off.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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