Welcome to the Insurrection

119
103
Sat, Dec 27, 2014 - 7:41pm

You know what the big lie is in today's markets? Take a guess...

The reality is that there are so many contenders for this title that the aggregate populace of Turdville probably came up with two dozen different answers to the question. How many of you chose the P/E ratio of the S&P supposedly reflecting the future real earnings of those companies? The "value" of the USDX? The fact that interest rates, which are supposed to reflect reasonable return after accounting for risk, are literally at multi-hundred year lows... does 2.7% really reflect a reasonable return for a 10 year bond after accounting for the possibility of default for a bankrupt and utterly feckless Italy? Or France? Or the rate on the 10yr US Treasury Bond?

All of these are contenders for the title, and you can probably come up with others as well. But you know what the biggest lie of all is? The one that underlies everything (and requires the manipulation to ridiculous levels of all the above)? The lie that there actually ARE markets, the lie that everything is fine and all has been fixed. The vast majority of the populace believe this lie, and structure their lives accordingly. They believe the unemployment numbers, they believe the deficits don't matter, they believe that the economy is getting better, they believe in the integrity of the institutions that run their lives, and most importantly they believe that they have nothing whatsoever to worry about. They believe in the mythos of an omniscient and omnipotent Fed. They believe in the successful Central Planning of the economy. There is no cause in their minds for them to question the comfortable, easy lives they live (for now) or the standard of living that they think they have secured. They don't question the actual value of their savings or their paycheck. There is no reason to question or be fearful of what may come. There is no need to prepare or to change their investing, their worldview, or their lives in any way.

There are a hearty few, however, who refuse to take the easy way out, who have the courage to accept the uncomfortable truth that these falsehoods are no basis for planning their futures. Who see the lies for what they are and refuse to be lulled into a comatose acceptance of the unsustainable status quo. They will not be cowed or dissuaded by pathetic Ad Hominem slurs like "goldbugs" or the disapproval of the mainstream investing press. They are the precious few who are getting ready to protect their families and are sacrificing today to be ready for an inevitable tomorrow.

But after a three year bear market in precious metals there is a disturbing malaise that seems to be settling in on many, even in this tough community of non-conformists. People counting the value of their stack solely in US Dollar terms, as if this benchmark is at all appropriate or valid. I would very much like to shatter this malaise, and get people to once again see that what they are doing is not only absolutely right in investing terms, but is profoundly important and crucial for their survival and the survival of the whole. I wish I could get people to understand that each and every one of them is a warrior in the most significant battle of our lifetimes. I wish I could get these people to see themselves for what they are- revolutionary insurgents fighting a tooth-and-nail pitched melee against an intractable foe who possesses every material advantage on the battlefield including utter control of the press, the political process, and the popular culture. I wish I had the words to express how profoundly crucial it is for these people to keep fighting, keep the faith, and keep attempting to pursuade any and everyone they can to protect themselves from what is to come. I am sorry. I simply do not have the words.

To put it bluntly, there is a shitstorm of unimaginable proportions coming. The entire economic basis of our society has slowly, incrementally, and in some instances deliberately, been undermined. The historic signposts of trouble (interest rates, unemployment rates, PM values, stock market valuations) have been spray-painted over, the canaries in the coal mine stuffed and placed on their perches to assure the tractable populace of exactly what they wish to believe- that everything is fine. The rot and disease goes to the very core of each and every institution to the degree that none is reliable. And the entire hollow edifice is cheered at every turn by a media who long ago sold their journalistic ideal of "truth telling" for easy promotion and fast cash.

A whole ton of people who understood these truths four years ago have now forgotten them, or at least have marginalized their impact in their minds. If you are here at TFMR reading this, you will know what I am talking about - if you were paying attention in 2008 and 2009 when the whole damn thing was inches from flying off the tracks and you damn well knew it, as the subsequent testimony of those involved at the highest levels confirmed. For example, the Secretary of the US Treasury Hank Paulson who warned congressional leaders of a "tanks in the streets" implosion if they did not pass the bailouts. The whole thing was inches from imploding and taking all of us with it. Think back to those days, remember what it was like to see your "diversified and safe" stock portfolio down 50% in six months, to see trillions of dollars created at the swish of a pen and called "stimulus" or QE or whatever the euphemism of the day was, and to think: This is utter crap, this is NOT how you fix these problems. Do you remember how it felt to truly contemplate, for the first time in your life as a potential reality, the honest t to God destruction of your savings, the end of your paycheck, the implosion of the whole shooting match? Well guess what... we have only papered over these problems. We have become very, very good at hiding the symptoms of this disease with accounting tricks and a media barrage of "green shoots" or whatever the meme of the day is to convince people that everything is hunky dory.

Everything is not hunky dory. The reality of insolvency and parabolic debt is a hard bitch, and it doesn't give a rat's ass what measures are taken to mask its proxy effects in the short term, it will have it's day. You either understand this reality or you do not. And with the entire "opinion-making" apparatus dedicated to the sole purpose of convincing people that reality will never reassert itself, only those who are constitutionally strong (and a bit irascible) will resist the message.

Forget the bear market in the metals. Remember this: You are a rebel insurgent in the greatest economic battle of all time. You know that value cannot be created by the swish of a pen. You know that lies are lies, regardless of whether they comfort you or not. You know that reality is reality. You have chosen to invest the results of your labors in real money of genuine value, not the paper promises and happy fairytales of the powers that be.

The enemy uses every mode of propaganda and persuasion to convince you that you are wrong and that all is well. . Don't think for a minute they are correct in this assertion. Stack your metals and prepare to care for yourselves and your loved ones, because the reaper is coming. And it is closer than when you first sensed its presence five years ago.

Keep stacking.

About the Author

  119 Comments

James Crighton AUandAGbull
Dec 29, 2014 - 2:35pm

@mattheim - Bitcoin - Andreas Antonopoulos / Canadian Senate

Nice to hear that you have an open mind on Bitcoin. There are many ways to learn about it but we could do worse that starting with Andreas Antonopoulos, one of the World's foremost teachers in the area. This is his presentation to the Canadian Senate banking committee - with questions afterwards. It is long but intensely interesting - especially the question and answer session afterwards:

Andreas M. Antonopoulos educates Senate of Canada about Bitcoin (Oct 8, ENG)
James Crighton Pseudozero
Dec 29, 2014 - 2:39pm

@pseudozero

Thanks for highlighting the most important sentence of my post pseudozero; and to emphasize it I will post it again (it is that important for people to realise):

Nothing more is needed to undermine the State than mass disobedience through cryptography.

jc

Levon
Dec 29, 2014 - 2:59pm

Saxena

He made many excellent points in that interview and you have to hand it to him- he has very accurately called the metals for many years. He sold everything the week silver topped and has been bearish ever since. You guys vilanize anyone that is or has been bearish the metals but sit back and think - who has been correct, who has benefitted by not fighting the trend.


Dec 29, 2014 - 3:14pm

Bearish

Yes, you have got to hand it to someone who called the top in silver nad has been bearish. There were several here on this blog who did likewise and were called trolls.

But the kicker has been the instability in the world banking system. I hope that Saxena has re-stacked at low prices... but what if we had collapsed with the MF Global bankruptcy? Or Feb 29th of 2012? That is why I hold. I do not want to get all clever and sell metals just before a big smash and then not be able to to buy them back because "that was the BIG one." I guess if I were brilliant, I would have short sold /SI options the last week of April 2011, then continued to go short each time silver threatened another break out, and made money all the way down. That way I hold my stack AND profit on the bear market. I think too few of us did that. My hindsight is 20/20.

I am not that clever or gutsy. I just hold these days.

If metals are just another asset class, no better than paper, then these trader types are brilliant and I am the fool.

lnardozi Pseudozero
Dec 29, 2014 - 3:24pm

@PseudoZero

You may have missed my point. Let me restate it as a fact.

The block chain represents a history of the ownership of each bitcoin from minting onward.

I know this for a fact - I am a software developer. So it does not repeat not "free you for civil disobediance". Like the One Ring from Tolkein's masterpiece, it does not make you invisible except in seeming - it makes you horribly and uniquely visible in a way which is not subject to repudiation.

I have done my duty in warning you - think or do as you please. I'm not interested in arguing, I'm telling you what I know to be a mathematically provable fact. Caveat Emptor.

lund175
Dec 29, 2014 - 3:57pm

The PTB tax it

Bitcoin cannot be that far underground as the ptb are going to tax the gains. I am not so certain how anonymous gold and silver are as well. Any time I purchase online that business has and continues' to show what and how much I paid. Great for my records but bad for being traceable. I guess the premium I would pay at a flea market with no receipt would be the only way to be off the grid.

Bollocks
Dec 29, 2014 - 4:12pm

Interesting

new coin from the UK Royal Mint...

2 oz of silver with a legal-tender face value of £100 ($155).

https://www.royalmint.com

lnardozi
Dec 29, 2014 - 4:14pm

That's OK

They have no record of you selling it. Really they have no record of you buying it, because if you're not paying with cash it's not the sort of thing that is required to be reported. Since you have a record of buying it but no record of selling it, theoretically you could just generate a receipt and use the "investment loss" of whatever you sold it for to offset gains that weren't exempt from reporting. Not that I'm suggesting any such thing, I'm just saying it's theoretically possible. Wow- I just thought of this, if one were to do so it would provide a paper trail indicating such gold no longer existed. Now that would make it worth even reporting a small profit. Hm....

lund175
Dec 29, 2014 - 4:38pm

MUST WATCH Raoul Pal and Grant W.

This is a gem of a interview, WATCH THIS.

https://www.businessinsider.com/raoul-pal-on-bitcoin-2014-11

This video makes me want to buy a g of the B coin .

James Crighton lnardozi
Dec 29, 2014 - 4:43pm

@Inardozi

OK Inardozi, here's an address that contains a certain amount of bitcoin:

16CAK5zPfp9nm6RhaiB9UAbtCfxTmNaQBB

Your'e the taxman - who are you going to send the bill to?

I rest my case.

jc

boomstick
Dec 29, 2014 - 4:48pm

Dr J

Agree completely. We do not know when (or, to be fair, if) the day will come, but when it does I want to be slightly chiding myself with "wish I'd bought a little more", not kicking myself with "wish I could buy some". I am a simple man, not smart enough to short paper against physical. Why over-complicate things?

boomstick
Dec 29, 2014 - 4:51pm

@bollocks

nifty, thanks for the tip. Relative pricing is similar to the Canuck 20/20 and 50/50 programs. I wish the U.S. Mint would do that, I'd love to hold cash in that sort of form. I guess nickels fit the bill, but wow do they take up space ...

lund175
Dec 29, 2014 - 4:51pm
silver66
Dec 29, 2014 - 4:57pm

Vineyard of the Saker White Paper

that has been posted here is a MUST read for members of this community. High level analysis with nitty gritty examples for support of his arguments.

Whoever posted ...Thank you.

I will read again this evening to catch what I missed the first time

Silver66

Ruislip Ranger Bollocks
Dec 29, 2014 - 5:22pm

UK Mint

This is a very interesting coin considering one oz gold Britannia's have a denominational value of £100. In 2013 the UK Mint started selling £20 half Oz silver coins which was a first. A normal 1 oz silver Britannia has a denominational value of £2. It's difficult to read between the lines with the Royal Mint as they are a bunch of commercially driven rip off merchants though in 2014 they have ventured into allocated gold storage as well.

SteveW
Dec 29, 2014 - 10:33pm

Blockchain

Here's a note suggesting that blockchain can be used for tagging anything, not just currencies.

https://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/blockchain-promises-to-be-as-disru...

My question concerns the size of the blockchain and how origin can be verified once it requires outside servers. I guess the answer is verified, trusted online sources. Imagine if blockchain had been used instead of MERS.

TomMack Doctor J
Dec 29, 2014 - 11:08pm

"Catch a falling knife"

That is trader talk...I agree with Dr J, I am a stacker insuring for the Reset not a trader. If the Reset doesn't come good, my 1964 quarters should still buy me a gallon of gas and my ounce of gold should pay my cable tv bill (just kidding) you get the point. If the 401k is intact good too. BUT consider what Saxena said about jr miners not being able to weather the low prices and the US fracking industry costly and leveraged. Banks are on the other side of these industries and not all banks are on the same side. From all the news and information we have read on these pages something has to give. There will be failures. As they say in the oil business 'the cure for lower prices is lower prices'. Change will come quickly when it comes. If the master had known which hour the thief was coming... it would be easy.

Stay vigilant

Stack on... within reason

AUandAGbull
Dec 30, 2014 - 8:39am

@ SteveW

https://realvisiontv.com/videos/5491caad14a592ef3095db0f

talks about other uses for the blockchain

Joseph Warren
Dec 30, 2014 - 12:01pm

Best commentary section . . . .

We may not all agree on everything, and that's good. This provides a wider range of views to consider. I appreciate the opinions expressed by members here & all the very useful and thought provoking links that members have provided. Like many of you, I visit various websites. IMO the 'dumb azz' factor at such places as the ZeroHedge commentary section has been rising over the years. So, it's always nice to check in at TF Metals as an antidote.

This has nothing to do with the main topic, but I just wanted to mention it.

AUandAGbull
Dec 30, 2014 - 12:05pm

Goodbye to one of the best years in history

It might not feel like it, but we are safer, richer and healthier than at any time on record

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/11310456/Goodbye-to-one-of-the-best-...

unbelievable

SteveW AUandAGbull
Dec 30, 2014 - 1:05pm

@mattheim: Other uses for blockchain

Thanks for the link but at $400 per year to watch a video I'm not quite that interested.

AUandAGbull
Dec 30, 2014 - 1:17pm

@ SteveW

Ooops. should have been a link to the one of the free videos available in the Free Demo section from realvisiontv.com

Markedtofuture
Dec 30, 2014 - 2:20pm

The Rigging Triangle Exposed

The Rigging Triangle Exposed: The JPMorgan-British Petroleum-Bank Of England Cartel Full Frontal

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2014 13:18 -0500

The name Dick Usher is familiar to regular readers: he was the head JPMorgan FX market manipulator, who was promptly fired after it was revealed that JPM was the bank coordinating the biggest FX rigging scheme in history, as initially revealed in "Another JPMorganite Busted For "Bandits' Club" Market Manipulation." Subsequent revelations - which would have been impossible without the tremendous reporting of Bloomberg's Liam Vaughan - showed that JPM was not alone: as recent legal actions confirmed, virtually every single bank was also a keen FX rigging participant. However, the undisputed ringleader was always America's largest bank, which would make sense: having a virtually unlimited balance sheet, JPM could outlast practically any margin call, and make money while its far smaller peers were closed out of trades... and existence.

But while the past year revealed that FX rigging was a just as pervasive, if not even more profitable industry for banks than the great Libor-fixing scandal (for details see "How To Rig FX Like A Pro "Bandit", And Make Millions In The Process"), the conventional wisdom was that it involved almost exclusively bankers at the largest global banks including JPM, Goldman, Deutsche, Barclays, RBS, HSBC, and UBS.

Now, courtesy of some more brilliant reporting by Vaughan, we can finally link banks with the other two facets of what has emerged to be an unprecedented FX-rigging "triangle" cartel: private sector companies that have no direct banking operations yet who have intimate prop trading exposure, as well as central banks themselves.

Continued....https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-30/rigging-triangle-exposed-jpmor...

cashonly
Dec 30, 2014 - 3:26pm

thanks for the "Vineyard of the Saker"

I've just finished reading Vineyard of the Saker, Paul Craig Roberts and the "Double Helix".....

2014 "End of Year" report and a look into what 2015 might bring

The Outlook for the New Year — Paul Craig Roberts

https://www.mediafire.com/view/08rzue8ffism94t/China-%20Russia_Double_Helix.docx

... excellent reads by all accounts.

Has anyone one else noticed the similarities with the whole fiasco with the movie "The Interview" and the anthrax scare years back? First we blamed NK, then the Russians and now we are finding out it probably was domestic. Just getting the masses mentally jacked-up for some "VIGOROUS ACTION" in Europe?

infometron
Dec 30, 2014 - 5:27pm

Re: Sony hack, MH17, false flags, gold, silver, etc.

Bearing false witness appears to now be the cornerstone of American 'policy.'

James Crighton infometron
Dec 31, 2014 - 12:48am

@infometronj - USA government

Infometron - why don't you (American citizens) do something about it - it is quite pathetic the way you complain about your government yet do nothing practical about it. It does not reflect well upon you (as a nation). The situation is very serious - you (collectively) should do something about it.

jc

Dr. P. Metals
Dec 31, 2014 - 8:37am

@jc

pot calling kettle bloody black?

Edit: cheers

James Crighton Dr. P. Metals
Jan 1, 2015 - 12:26pm

@Dr.PM

eh?

jc

James Crighton Dr. P. Metals
Jan 1, 2015 - 12:27pm

@Dr.PM

I live in the UK - and we are - it's called UKIP.

jc

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Recent Comments

by lakedweller2, 3 hours 5 min ago
by Marchas45, 3 hours 28 min ago
by Joseph Warren, 3 hours 33 min ago