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Sat, Dec 27, 2014 - 7:41pm

You know what the big lie is in today's markets? Take a guess...

The reality is that there are so many contenders for this title that the aggregate populace of Turdville probably came up with two dozen different answers to the question. How many of you chose the P/E ratio of the S&P supposedly reflecting the future real earnings of those companies? The "value" of the USDX? The fact that interest rates, which are supposed to reflect reasonable return after accounting for risk, are literally at multi-hundred year lows... does 2.7% really reflect a reasonable return for a 10 year bond after accounting for the possibility of default for a bankrupt and utterly feckless Italy? Or France? Or the rate on the 10yr US Treasury Bond?

All of these are contenders for the title, and you can probably come up with others as well. But you know what the biggest lie of all is? The one that underlies everything (and requires the manipulation to ridiculous levels of all the above)? The lie that there actually ARE markets, the lie that everything is fine and all has been fixed. The vast majority of the populace believe this lie, and structure their lives accordingly. They believe the unemployment numbers, they believe the deficits don't matter, they believe that the economy is getting better, they believe in the integrity of the institutions that run their lives, and most importantly they believe that they have nothing whatsoever to worry about. They believe in the mythos of an omniscient and omnipotent Fed. They believe in the successful Central Planning of the economy. There is no cause in their minds for them to question the comfortable, easy lives they live (for now) or the standard of living that they think they have secured. They don't question the actual value of their savings or their paycheck. There is no reason to question or be fearful of what may come. There is no need to prepare or to change their investing, their worldview, or their lives in any way.

There are a hearty few, however, who refuse to take the easy way out, who have the courage to accept the uncomfortable truth that these falsehoods are no basis for planning their futures. Who see the lies for what they are and refuse to be lulled into a comatose acceptance of the unsustainable status quo. They will not be cowed or dissuaded by pathetic Ad Hominem slurs like "goldbugs" or the disapproval of the mainstream investing press. They are the precious few who are getting ready to protect their families and are sacrificing today to be ready for an inevitable tomorrow.

But after a three year bear market in precious metals there is a disturbing malaise that seems to be settling in on many, even in this tough community of non-conformists. People counting the value of their stack solely in US Dollar terms, as if this benchmark is at all appropriate or valid. I would very much like to shatter this malaise, and get people to once again see that what they are doing is not only absolutely right in investing terms, but is profoundly important and crucial for their survival and the survival of the whole. I wish I could get people to understand that each and every one of them is a warrior in the most significant battle of our lifetimes. I wish I could get these people to see themselves for what they are- revolutionary insurgents fighting a tooth-and-nail pitched melee against an intractable foe who possesses every material advantage on the battlefield including utter control of the press, the political process, and the popular culture. I wish I had the words to express how profoundly crucial it is for these people to keep fighting, keep the faith, and keep attempting to pursuade any and everyone they can to protect themselves from what is to come. I am sorry. I simply do not have the words.

To put it bluntly, there is a shitstorm of unimaginable proportions coming. The entire economic basis of our society has slowly, incrementally, and in some instances deliberately, been undermined. The historic signposts of trouble (interest rates, unemployment rates, PM values, stock market valuations) have been spray-painted over, the canaries in the coal mine stuffed and placed on their perches to assure the tractable populace of exactly what they wish to believe- that everything is fine. The rot and disease goes to the very core of each and every institution to the degree that none is reliable. And the entire hollow edifice is cheered at every turn by a media who long ago sold their journalistic ideal of "truth telling" for easy promotion and fast cash.

A whole ton of people who understood these truths four years ago have now forgotten them, or at least have marginalized their impact in their minds. If you are here at TFMR reading this, you will know what I am talking about - if you were paying attention in 2008 and 2009 when the whole damn thing was inches from flying off the tracks and you damn well knew it, as the subsequent testimony of those involved at the highest levels confirmed. For example, the Secretary of the US Treasury Hank Paulson who warned congressional leaders of a "tanks in the streets" implosion if they did not pass the bailouts. The whole thing was inches from imploding and taking all of us with it. Think back to those days, remember what it was like to see your "diversified and safe" stock portfolio down 50% in six months, to see trillions of dollars created at the swish of a pen and called "stimulus" or QE or whatever the euphemism of the day was, and to think: This is utter crap, this is NOT how you fix these problems. Do you remember how it felt to truly contemplate, for the first time in your life as a potential reality, the honest t to God destruction of your savings, the end of your paycheck, the implosion of the whole shooting match? Well guess what... we have only papered over these problems. We have become very, very good at hiding the symptoms of this disease with accounting tricks and a media barrage of "green shoots" or whatever the meme of the day is to convince people that everything is hunky dory.

Everything is not hunky dory. The reality of insolvency and parabolic debt is a hard bitch, and it doesn't give a rat's ass what measures are taken to mask its proxy effects in the short term, it will have it's day. You either understand this reality or you do not. And with the entire "opinion-making" apparatus dedicated to the sole purpose of convincing people that reality will never reassert itself, only those who are constitutionally strong (and a bit irascible) will resist the message.

Forget the bear market in the metals. Remember this: You are a rebel insurgent in the greatest economic battle of all time. You know that value cannot be created by the swish of a pen. You know that lies are lies, regardless of whether they comfort you or not. You know that reality is reality. You have chosen to invest the results of your labors in real money of genuine value, not the paper promises and happy fairytales of the powers that be.

The enemy uses every mode of propaganda and persuasion to convince you that you are wrong and that all is well. . Don't think for a minute they are correct in this assertion. Stack your metals and prepare to care for yourselves and your loved ones, because the reaper is coming. And it is closer than when you first sensed its presence five years ago.

Keep stacking.

About the Author

  119 Comments

proformatrillionaire
Dec 27, 2014 - 7:50pm

First

Been a while. Thanks Pining for the post. Economic indicators are only a source of comedy these days. The shocking part is that millions will still be surprised when everything goes to hell.

AlienEyes
Dec 27, 2014 - 7:59pm

ace !

FIRST ! ....to claim second.

AlienEyes
Dec 27, 2014 - 8:11pm

The Historical Pendulum

The pendulum always over corrects and we are way out of line. When that sucker swings back, gold and silver will shine while the dollar turns to the poo that it already is. Fiat never ends well.

Making us look like fools is far easier than making us act like fools.

silver66
Dec 27, 2014 - 8:22pm

fourth

nice post

Silver66

ArtL
Dec 27, 2014 - 9:03pm

Most people seem immune to any hint that trouble lies ahead

One of my college roommates , (circa 1963) now thinks I am a goldnutter (one of the kinder title he applies to me), and utterly rejects the ideas that the USD is on the brink of a collapse. He crows about how in the last year his investments have risen significantly and my gold and silver have fallen. He is very happy to own USD because of the increased purchasing power of the USD he sees on his many international vacation trips to Australia and Europe. He believes the main street media, like Bloomberg and Reuters, are infinitely better source of economic news than possible from anonymous bloggers. Continuing to mention any of these financial topics to him will most cause him to say "you sure seem to always have a lot of gloom and doom to talk about."

So far all that has happened is that whomever I do talk to about preparing for a crash in the value of the USD and it is prudent to preserve some wealth in silver and gold thinks I am in a different universe. Given these experiences, I have given up talking to anyone about the perilous condition of the world's fiat money system and what is possible to do to lessen the blow when the grand reset occurs.

So I will continue to stack and prepare, and not get too excited about how others will be unprepared for a reset in value of the USD or stock market.

SilveryBlue
Dec 27, 2014 - 9:55pm

Thanks Pining

Sometimes I feel like I have slipped into the twilight zone, so bad is the disjoint between what I understand to be true and what the rest of the world is proclaiming. It's not just the market news, it is everything. International politics is a festering sore, megalomaniacs appear to have been breeding & none of the evildoers seem to give a sh!t about covering their tracks anymore.

Taken as a whole it creates a terrible foreboding that something wicked this way comes and fast. Mind you this has all dragged out for much longer than I expected, so I am not holding my breath or panicking. The fundamentals of my personal choice have not changed. There is immense risk in the financial system and those handy pieces of Central Bank "haircut" legislation are guaranteed to be triggered at some stage. Even banks in relatively stable countries are susceptible to international contagion once the ball gets rolling.

There are some bright spots though. I gotta hand it to Putin - the man is showing up other leaders for the inept scum that they are. In addition, more & more people are questioning. Questions start research. Research leads to all sorts of new ideas. It's got to be a good thing if approached honestly & with a will to challenge what you already know.

We'll get through it. People always do

Dec 27, 2014 - 10:05pm

Thanks for the excellent post, Pining

Great stuff and much appreciated.

SS121
Dec 27, 2014 - 11:34pm

now THAT was a strong post

well said P4. excellent.

Swineflogger
Dec 28, 2014 - 12:43am

@Pining: Well Said Brother

Fuck the Beavs and the Ducks. "The canaries have been stuffed". Enough said. My son in law is in some shit hole in Afghanistan. His wife, my daughter is pregnant and I am the designated birth coach. Mama never said there would be days like this . . . .

infometron
Dec 28, 2014 - 1:00am

"Surely some revelation is at hand"

Joni Mitchell singing W. B. Yeats somehow seems appropo.

Joni Mitchell - Slouching Towards Bethlehem

Great post Pining, thank you

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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