You know what the big lie is in today's markets? Take a guess...
The reality is that there are so many contenders for this title that the aggregate populace of Turdville probably came up with two dozen different answers to the question. How many of you chose the P/E ratio of the S&P supposedly reflecting the future real earnings of those companies? The "value" of the USDX? The fact that interest rates, which are supposed to reflect reasonable return after accounting for risk, are literally at multi-hundred year lows... does 2.7% really reflect a reasonable return for a 10 year bond after accounting for the possibility of default for a bankrupt and utterly feckless Italy? Or France? Or the rate on the 10yr US Treasury Bond?
All of these are contenders for the title, and you can probably come up with others as well. But you know what the biggest lie of all is? The one that underlies everything (and requires the manipulation to ridiculous levels of all the above)? The lie that there actually ARE markets, the lie that everything is fine and all has been fixed. The vast majority of the populace believe this lie, and structure their lives accordingly. They believe the unemployment numbers, they believe the deficits don't matter, they believe that the economy is getting better, they believe in the integrity of the institutions that run their lives, and most importantly they believe that they have nothing whatsoever to worry about. They believe in the mythos of an omniscient and omnipotent Fed. They believe in the successful Central Planning of the economy. There is no cause in their minds for them to question the comfortable, easy lives they live (for now) or the standard of living that they think they have secured. They don't question the actual value of their savings or their paycheck. There is no reason to question or be fearful of what may come. There is no need to prepare or to change their investing, their worldview, or their lives in any way.
There are a hearty few, however, who refuse to take the easy way out, who have the courage to accept the uncomfortable truth that these falsehoods are no basis for planning their futures. Who see the lies for what they are and refuse to be lulled into a comatose acceptance of the unsustainable status quo. They will not be cowed or dissuaded by pathetic Ad Hominem slurs like "goldbugs" or the disapproval of the mainstream investing press. They are the precious few who are getting ready to protect their families and are sacrificing today to be ready for an inevitable tomorrow.
But after a three year bear market in precious metals there is a disturbing malaise that seems to be settling in on many, even in this tough community of non-conformists. People counting the value of their stack solely in US Dollar terms, as if this benchmark is at all appropriate or valid. I would very much like to shatter this malaise, and get people to once again see that what they are doing is not only absolutely right in investing terms, but is profoundly important and crucial for their survival and the survival of the whole. I wish I could get people to understand that each and every one of them is a warrior in the most significant battle of our lifetimes. I wish I could get these people to see themselves for what they are- revolutionary insurgents fighting a tooth-and-nail pitched melee against an intractable foe who possesses every material advantage on the battlefield including utter control of the press, the political process, and the popular culture. I wish I had the words to express how profoundly crucial it is for these people to keep fighting, keep the faith, and keep attempting to pursuade any and everyone they can to protect themselves from what is to come. I am sorry. I simply do not have the words.
To put it bluntly, there is a shitstorm of unimaginable proportions coming. The entire economic basis of our society has slowly, incrementally, and in some instances deliberately, been undermined. The historic signposts of trouble (interest rates, unemployment rates, PM values, stock market valuations) have been spray-painted over, the canaries in the coal mine stuffed and placed on their perches to assure the tractable populace of exactly what they wish to believe- that everything is fine. The rot and disease goes to the very core of each and every institution to the degree that none is reliable. And the entire hollow edifice is cheered at every turn by a media who long ago sold their journalistic ideal of "truth telling" for easy promotion and fast cash.
A whole ton of people who understood these truths four years ago have now forgotten them, or at least have marginalized their impact in their minds. If you are here at TFMR reading this, you will know what I am talking about - if you were paying attention in 2008 and 2009 when the whole damn thing was inches from flying off the tracks and you damn well knew it, as the subsequent testimony of those involved at the highest levels confirmed. For example, the Secretary of the US Treasury Hank Paulson who warned congressional leaders of a "tanks in the streets" implosion if they did not pass the bailouts. The whole thing was inches from imploding and taking all of us with it. Think back to those days, remember what it was like to see your "diversified and safe" stock portfolio down 50% in six months, to see trillions of dollars created at the swish of a pen and called "stimulus" or QE or whatever the euphemism of the day was, and to think: This is utter crap, this is NOT how you fix these problems. Do you remember how it felt to truly contemplate, for the first time in your life as a potential reality, the honest t to God destruction of your savings, the end of your paycheck, the implosion of the whole shooting match? Well guess what... we have only papered over these problems. We have become very, very good at hiding the symptoms of this disease with accounting tricks and a media barrage of "green shoots" or whatever the meme of the day is to convince people that everything is hunky dory.
Everything is not hunky dory. The reality of insolvency and parabolic debt is a hard bitch, and it doesn't give a rat's ass what measures are taken to mask its proxy effects in the short term, it will have it's day. You either understand this reality or you do not. And with the entire "opinion-making" apparatus dedicated to the sole purpose of convincing people that reality will never reassert itself, only those who are constitutionally strong (and a bit irascible) will resist the message.
Forget the bear market in the metals. Remember this: You are a rebel insurgent in the greatest economic battle of all time. You know that value cannot be created by the swish of a pen. You know that lies are lies, regardless of whether they comfort you or not. You know that reality is reality. You have chosen to invest the results of your labors in real money of genuine value, not the paper promises and happy fairytales of the powers that be.
The enemy uses every mode of propaganda and persuasion to convince you that you are wrong and that all is well. . Don't think for a minute they are correct in this assertion. Stack your metals and prepare to care for yourselves and your loved ones, because the reaper is coming. And it is closer than when you first sensed its presence five years ago.
You know what the big lie is in today's markets? Take a guess...