Ned Naylor-Leyland on "Get Real" with Jan Skoyles

Late last week, Ned joined Jan for a terrific discussion of the global gold markets.

Right away, you'll likely notice two things:

  1. Ned finally got himself a haircut.
  2. Those are some shnazzy leggings that Jan has on.

Then, once you settle in, you'll hear Ned and Jan discuss such issues as:

  • Chinese and Indian gold demand
  • Gold price backwardation and possible arbitrage
  • Negative GOFO
  • Miners and price trends for 2015

This is an excellent way to get your head in the game ahead of what might be a volatile, holiday week. 

TF

 

51 Comments

Markedtofuture's picture

Will they Hang Bankers Again on Wall Street?

First...2.78 million views and counting...

Posted on December 21, 2014 by Martin Armstrong

Carpetbaggers

What took place in Washington over the past two weeks with the repeal of Dodd Frank and then the effective repeal of the Volcker Rule sounds strikingly familiar to at least three previous periods in American History that led to total disaster. There were of course the Northern “carpetbaggers”, whom many in the South viewed as opportunists looking to exploit and profit from the region’s misfortunes following the Civil War.The “carpetbaggers” would play a central role in shaping new southern governments during Reconstruction period who were joined by Southerners who saw economic gain in joining the Northerners in the exploitation of the South. There were called “scalawags”.

1896-Bryan-Sewall

Then there were the Silver Democrats who were bought and paid for by the mining industry. William Jennings Bryan’s red-hot emotional speech at the 1896 Democratic Convention will forever live on in history. The shenanigans of the Democrats and Republicans who tried to overvalue silver led to the near bankruptcy of the nation and made JP Morgan famous thanks to the Panic of 1896 when he had to arrange a gold loan to save the country.

Then there was what people called the First Gilded Age more than a century ago, when senators and representatives were owned by Wall Street and big business. This culminated in the 1929 Crash.

What did all three of these period have in common with the last two weeks? Then, as now, those who footed the bill for political campaigns were richly rewarded with favorable laws. This is standard operating procedure in Washington and why we are in such desperate need of political reform.

War_of_wealth_bank_run

Standard_oil_octopusIn all three such periods there was a rising underbelly of rising tension and rebellion against the powers that be. Today, people are increasingly becoming fed up with Washington and the rebellion unfolds ONLY when the economy turns down. There was Charles Dazey’s Broadway Play The War of Wealth (February 10, 1896). This 51.6 year ECM Wave that peaked in 1929.75 (#919-924) was a Private Wave that began with the death of Karl Marx and the previous 51.6 year Wave peaked in 1878. In 1882, because of anti-monopoly laws, Standard Oil is organized as a trust, which would become the target of all time.

Indeed, what the bankers pulled off these past two weeks was done on the basis that they ASSUME the people have such a short-attention span that (1) they did not expect any press, and (2) they expected this will blow over with the holidays.

The bankers have made the greatest MISTAKE of their career. Their desire to exploit the world economy through trading preferring to be TRANSACTION oriented rather thanRELATIONSHIP (meaning there is no long-term plan here just trade by trade), will be their undoing. The bankers have ALWAYS become the most hated within society. It was the bankers that caused the Panic in Ancient Athens, Rome, and even caused countless riots and civil wars. It was Philip IV of France who confiscated and imprisoned the Italian Bankers for lending money to England to wage war. He seized even the Papacy moving that to France. He wiped out the Knights Templar who were a major banking organization.Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon because of the corrupt bankers in the Senate and the people cheered him as the bankers fled to Asia.

One a time scale, the Panic of 1896 came 13 years into that 51.6 year wave. Relating this to the current wave that began with the formation of G5 in 1985, that brought us to 1998 and the first bailout of Long-Term Capital Management. Then 26 years into that wave brought us to 1908. It was the 1907 Crash that shifted the focus from the Railroad to the Industrial Age. Currently, 26 years into this wave brought us to 2011 and the peak in all commodities from gold to oil. This has marked the beginning of the Euro Crisis with the first crack in 2010 being Greece.

Bankers-1

We are embarking on a new shift and the stock market is reflecting this change. What the bankers just puled off will leave to their demise  They have played with a historical fire that may end in actual bloodshed. It would not be the first time they have been dragged from their palaces and hanged on the streets. That is what the term “BLACK FRIDAY” really stood for – the day a mob hanged bankers on Wall Street.

 http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/21/will-the-hang-bankers-again-on-wall-street/

Island Teal's picture

Second

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all !!!

pm_newbie's picture

3rd

Turd, I mean thurd ;)

Let's see what tomorrow brings. Dec 22nd.  12+22   1+2+2+2..... = 7.  Just sayin' ;)  LOL.

btcgoldbull's picture

Interesting

thought that the arbitrage opportunity between the lower paper price and higher physical price might be undertaken by someone who doesn't even care about gold

Bollocks's picture

HAIRCUT

About bloomin' time...


 

AlienEyes's picture

RE : Dodd-Frank

How quickly they (humans) forget....

Dodd-Frank was the primary cause of the housing bubble and the mountain of bad loans it created. 

Libero's picture

Not so Alien

I know you would love to believe in what you think but NOT SO, so get the facts straight...

"The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Pub.L. 111–203, H.R. 4173; commonly referred to as Dodd-Frank) was signed into federal law by President Barack Obama on July 21, 2010 at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington, DC.[1] Passed as a response to the Great Recession, it brought the most significant changes to financial regulation in the United States since the regulatory reform that followed the Great Depression."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodd–Frank_Wall_Street_Reform_and_Consumer_Protection_Act

Can't Happen Here's picture

As long as we're posting cartoons of central bankers ...

Found this one on imgur earlier today

btcgoldbull's picture

More from Koos

Total gold volume traded on the SGE combined with the total gold volume traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) accounted for 1,309 tonnes in week 50. This amount was more than half the gold volume traded on the COMEX in the same period (2,507 tonnes). ITotal gold volume traded on the SGE combined with the total gold volume traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) accounted for 1,309 tonnes in week 50. This amount was more than half the gold volume traded on the COMEX in the same period (2,507 tonnes). I don’t see a trend of declining volumes on the COMEX, but I do see a trend of surging volumes in China, that are now starting to near COMEX volumes.

https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/will-chinese-gold-demand-end-2014-with-a-boom/

Bollocks's picture

Meanwhile

Righting Moment's picture

Price of admission

That was certainly worth the price of admission !   So refreshing to be able to listen to an informed conversation about the state of precious metals in the world arena without the slight and misinformation we so normally get.  Yes, Ned does clean up nicely.  I like the double digit prognostication he offers in the closing minutes.

How can he be wrong with that accent?

"Put your own oxygen mask on first..."

Darth Smoker's picture

time to do some Heavy Lifting

Stack till it hurts

Hondo's picture

Dearth Smoker!!!

Thank you for that Sienfield clip!

for a random laugh when it sure was helpful and out of the blue.

for those that missed it, I recommend the link above for a good random chuckle!

Stay safe and Happy holidays T- ville,

Hondo

Mickey's picture

Harvey Organ

put out a comment saying China sold 100 billion of US treasury reserves--a one liner--has anybody seen evidence of that or is  harvey losing his mind.

chicagoprep's picture

Chicago Update

Just wanted to shout out to all those that have added so much to this community over the past 2 years while I have been lurking and reading your ideas and insights.   I can't say enough to thank all of you for helping us understand the world out there.  

Yes I can confirm Jim Cominski's  view  that the Chi-town fed reserve has instituted a "No street window" policy.   Have been watching the progress every day.   So I am looking to see how I can help "connect the dots".

One thing that may seem minor for many... the latest ZeroHedge article....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-21/chicago-mayor-rahm-emanuels-teenage-son-mugged-near-home

It is curious that such a "global based" reporting website would focus on a 17 year old being rolled for a cell phone.  

chicagoprep's picture

Chicago Update

Just wanted to shout out to all those that have added so much to this community over the past 2 years while I have been lurking and reading your ideas and insights.   I can't say enough to thank all of you for helping us understand the world out there.  

Yes I can confirm Jim Cominski's  view  that the Chi-town fed reserve has instituted a "No street window" policy.   Have been watching the progress every day.   So I am looking to see how I can help "connect the dots".

One thing that may seem minor for many... the latest ZeroHedge article....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-21/chicago-mayor-rahm-emanuels-teenage-son-mugged-near-home

It is curious that such a "global based" reporting website would focus on a 17 year old being rolled for a cell phone.  

ivars's picture

Negative real interest rates

Negative real interest rates and peak debt in this cycle:

Actually we have a very good measure for peak debt- negative real interest rates on Government bonds, averaged over all maturities and  issuers. Once this worldwide average of interest rates on high powered money turns negative ( so it can be still positive on yuan bonds but that is more then compensated by NRIR elsewhere) , we have peak debt AND money supply worldwide on average will start to contract. May be we are already there, I do not have the figures. 

May be we can travel into negative period briefly, then move into 2 or more reserve currencies backed by Russian collateral etc .  may for some 10-20 years move real interest rates into positive territory again ( or hover near 0 for a plateau You agreed to?) , and after that,  back into negative for next 850-875 years, meaning contraction of money supply, economy and democracy until next expansion period is due. Similar cycle started in e.g. Rome in 312 with Constantine ansd introduction of solidus. Then real interest rates went negative averaged over all Roman Empire and gold was hoarded until introduction of solidus and peculiar Byzantine financial model that allowed Western Culture to survive. 

312 in Roman Empire corresponds to 2033 in todays debt based Western dominance. The culture will survive again, most likely it will be the USA that will be forced to adopt Byzantine model while China will fall into hands of nomads ( few hundred years later) and Muslims will enjoy return to peak powers. And there will be new religion..in my opinion science will be the new religion of the new Byzantine USA. 

I wonder does such indicator- Averaged over countries  real interest rates on averaged over maturities govt bonds- exist?

Do You know of any?

The period of continuing NRIR bodes well for gold as much as it bodes terrible for democracy. That model of governance will be extinguished in favor of autocratic rule everywhere.. with NRIR You just can not have democracy as money supply contracts and there are almost no investments returning positive. Instead of banks planning the economy as it is today, this function will move to the STATE computing centers. 

I just think it is not there yet another 20 years, but of course the direction of development of governance already now will move towards autocracy, somewhere gradually, somewhere via coups and revolutions. 

But, with such investment horizon (20 years)  gold should move above  its peak in 2011, measured in nominal USD. In between, even with war, I doubt gold will go over 1900 .. 1600 USD max would be my bet. 

ivars's picture

I am still following the

I am still following the bitcoin gold overlay to predict gold prices; here is the outcome today:

If there is one more dip  it will be as sharp or even sharper as spike into 1900. And it is going to be very soon, within January 2015 of early February latest. 

boomstick's picture

@Libero

Maybe he was referring to their pre-crash racketeering-like behavior rather than their eponymous law. I have no problem with the idea that the crash was their love child.

Libero's picture

boomstick

Don't know what Alien was referring to.
If anyone wants more hanky panky from the banksters, then repeal all of Dodd -Frank. I don't think banksters were in favor or are in favor of Dodd Frank, and this is what it all comes down to.
Dodd Frank is a good thing in my opinion.

Safety Dan's picture

Ebola Is Coming Back With a

Attkisson asserts that the CDC admits they are not telling the truth about Ebola.

Ebola Is Coming Back With a Vengeance

From a Fox News interview on the #MediaBuzz, Sharyl Attkisson said that she has uncovered evidence that Ebola is making an impressive comeback. Actually, comeback may be the wrong term. The proper term is coverup. Here is an excerpt from the Attkisson interview: “Infectious disease experts remain very concerned about the disease. A lot of the media coverage has gone from overtime to almost nothing since ..

From a Fox News interview on the #MediaBuzz, Sharyl Attkisson said that she has uncovered evidence that Ebola is making an impressive comeback. Actually, comeback may be the wrong term. The proper term is coverup. Here is an excerpt from the Attkisson interview:

“Infectious disease experts remain very concerned about the disease. A lot of the media coverage has gone from overtime to almost nothing since the administration has appointed an Ebola czar. And I don’t think that’s any accident.. I called CDC not long ago and said, How many active cases are being monitored in the United States of Ebola?” And they said, 1,400.” And I said, “Where is that on your website, these updates?” And they said, “We’re not putting it on the web. So I think there’s an effort to control the message and tamp it down. This is public information we have a right to and I think the media should not hype it but cover it.

The Christmas shopping season will be over in a short time. Subsequently, the need to make the country feel safe to go out in public, is almost over from a retail standpoint. This coincides with the announcement  of an Ebola vaccine which will be ready to market in January of 2015.

http://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/2014/12/21/ebola-is-coming-back-with-a-vengeance/

CDC's Ebola site doesn't show monitoring case counts as indicated by the above report.

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/united-states-imported-case.html

Makes one wonder if their case counts elsewhere are just as inaccurate. 

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/case-counts.html

https://www.internationalsos.com/ebola/index.cfm?content_id=437&language_id=ENG

http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/

Safety Dan's picture

Everything We Have Been

Everything We Have Been Taught About Our Origins Is A Lie

In June 1936 Max Hahn and his wife Emma were on a walk beside a waterfall near to London, Texas,…

THEMINDUNLEASHED.ORG

Safety Dan's picture

Central Banks Secretly

Central Banks Secretly Controlling all Futures Prices-Chris Powell

on: 12/21/2014 by Greg Hunter  63 Comments

4By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com    (Early Sunday Release) Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), says recent bombshell evidence shows intense central bank “interventions” at theCME Group, which handles $1 quadrillion ($1,000 trillion) worth of business annually.  Powell explains, “The greatest documentation that’s come out recently has been filings by the CME Group which operates the major futures exchange in the United States.  They filed a letter with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) . . . showing that central banks are receiving special volume discounts for trading futures on all the major futures exchanges, not just financial futures contracts and metals futures contracts, but even agricultural futures contracts.   (more…)

DeaconBenjamin's picture

US Dollar-Ruble

USD-RUB   55.1365   -4.4803   -7.52%
 

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Abkhazia parliament ratifies Russia treaty

Abkhazia, Sukhum

Abkhazia, Sukhum

SUKHUM, December 22. /TASS/. Border security guarantees and international recognition are core goals in a new strategic partnership between Russia and Abkhazia, ratified by parliament in Russia's neighboring south Caucasus republic on Monday.

The new treaty builds safeguards along the republic's border with Georgia, from which it sought independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and proposes to form a united military force with Russia within a year to counter any external threat.

Lawmakers' approval gives force to treaty terms agreed by the two states in Sochi, on Russia's Black Sea coast, at the end of November.

Russia pledges to promote "in all possible ways, stronger international ties with Abkhazia, including a broader list of countries which recognize it officially and pave the way for Abkhazia’s accession to international organizations and associations, including those founded at the initiative and/or with Russia’s assistance.”

Armed attack by any country or a group of countries “will be taken as an act of aggression," the document says, looking to what it calls technical engineering over the next two years to secure the two signatories' territorial boundaries.

The treaty aims to shape common defense and security structures, and to set up a coordinating police center to share operational intelligence.

In Abkhazia's bid for independence, strained relations with Georgia peaked in the 1990s, leading to armed clashes that killed about 20,000 people. In 1994, Abkhazia adopted its own constitution and declared independence from Georgia. A referendum in 1999 supported the republic’s statehood, but the international community still maintains that Abkhazia and regional neighbor South Ossetia are part of Georgia.

http://itar-tass.com/en/world/768462

btcgoldbull's picture

ZH Malware?

just got an alert from from my anti malware software (while on ZH clicking on a Reuters link) for a potentially malicious site called fastvideoupgrader.com

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Russia-Serbia cooperation reaches strategic level

MOSCOW, December 22. /TASS/. The cooperation between Russia and Serbia has reached a strategic level, the speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, said on Monday.

“We highly appreciate the level of cooperation between Russia and Serbia. We believe that on a number of indicators and on a number of directions, it has reached a strategic level,” Sergey Naryshkin said at the meeting with Serbian Parliament Speaker Maja Gojkovic.

Naryshkin said that this is essential amid the lack of trust currently seen in Europe.

“Russia and Serbia have always stood for and continue standing for observing the norms of the international law,” he said, adding that efforts should be made to ensure security and calm in Europe.

Gojkovic said Russia and Serbia have “a very big space for developing cooperation.”

http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/768388

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Russia’s government to impose grain export duties

GORKI, December 22. /TASS/. Russia’s government is due to introduce administrative restrictions on grain export which will be of a temporary character, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday.

“It’s time to think of introducing administrative restrictions on the export (of grain),” Medvedev said at a government meeting. He has asked Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich to prepare the particular proposals.

“Of course, this needs to be done correctly and agreed with the leading exporters, the decision should be temporary,” he stressed, adding that the move should be “flexible" in an effort to settle the situation on the grain market and provide citizens with bread and flour products.

“We have prepared proposals on imposing grain export duties and they will be submitted to you within 24 hours,” Dvorkovich responded.

With this year’s grain harvest at 104 million tons, the export potential allowing for state support of the domestic grain market is estimated at 28 million tons, Vice-Premier Dvorkovich said.

By now, Russia has already exported 21 million tons of grain, the vice-premier said.

Overloaded transport carrying grain for export will be stopped and returned back, Vice-Premier Arkady Dvorkovich told a cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday.

Dvorkovich said trucks were overloaded with grain in violation of the law. “An order was given to stop all such transport and return back toughly, without exceptions,” he added.

The market participants have been discussing plans for banning Russia’s grain exports after the ruble has lost half of its value so far this year. Russia’s bread prices have surged this month, according to retailers.

As of December 18, one ton of grain costs $265 at Chicago exchange, and the domestic price per ton of soft wheat of class 3 is around 10,000 rubles ($177), or a 5% increase per week. At the current exchange rate, the difference between the export and domestic price is 6,000 rubles ($106.2) or 60%

Therefore, the ruble devaluation increases the export volumes which rose 33% to 18.96 million tons this year, compared with 2013. At the same time, the grain supply to the domestic market is decreasing, sparking up the price growth.

The National Association of Exporters of Agricultural Products (NAEAP), whose members represent some 50% of Russia’s grain exports, said on Friday that Russian grain exporters are ceasing grain purchases in Russia “until the situation with grain supply and prices stabilizes on the internal market.”

According to the association, Russia’s agricultural watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor is denying certificates for grain destined for countries other than Egypt, Turkey, India and Armenia. The first two countries are the biggest importers of Russia’s grain.

http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/768430

DeaconBenjamin's picture

UK to extend Libor manipulation laws to cover gold, oil, silver

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain will widen the scope of laws which make the manipulation of market benchmarks a criminal offense to include seven more rates covering the currency, gold, oil and silver markets by April 1, the government said on Monday.

The move is the latest by the Conservative-led government to clamp down on malpractice in the City of London whose reputation has been tarnished by an interest rate-rigging scandal and claims that traders colluded to manipulate currency rates.

"Ensuring that the key rates that underpin financial markets here and around the world are robust, and that anyone who seeks to manipulate them is subject to the full force of the law, is an important part of our long-term economic plan," finance minister George Osborne said in a statement.

Under the law, people found guilty of manipulation can be handed jail sentences of up to seven years. It was originally introduced to cover the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) market after a global manipulation scandal which resulted in banks being fined billions of dollars.

The finance ministry said seven benchmarks including the WM/Reuters 4 p.m. London fix -- the dominant global benchmark in the $5.3 trillion-a-day currency market -- would be subject to the law, pending a consultation by Britain's financial watchdog.

The European Union has criminalized the rigging of financial market benchmarks after the Libor scandal, but those laws will not take effect until 2016.

A former trader from Royal Bank of Scotland was arrested on Friday in connection with a criminal investigation into allegations that bank traders tried to manipulate currency markets, according the Financial Times.

For the full list of affected benchmarks see:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-confirms-manipulation-of-key-forex-benchmark-to-be-made-a-criminal-offense

https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/uk-extend-libor-manipulation-laws-cover-seven-more-114906396--business.html

Safety Dan's picture

Charted history of the U.S.

Charted history of the U.S. dollar, via Goldman Sachs
Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/charted-history-of-the-u-s-dollar-via-goldman-sachs/#RC3Di6Glse0O48Pg.99

B5XoRUxCAAAOA39.jpg:large

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