Turdville Open Thread

Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 10:32am

As historic events unfold around us, and with markets moving so quickly around the globe, I thought we should try something different today. Hopefully this open thread provides a forum for the free exchange of ideas and opinions as well as headline updates for all the global markets.

My opinion is this:

With overt sanctions against Russia having minimal impact, the U.S. set out on a course of covert sanctions last summer. Among these was a plan to manipulate down the paper price of crude oil as Russia derives nearly 15% of its national income from the sale of crude.

Once price broke $90, the spec algos took over and the growing momentum of the trade has driven price well beyond what the central planners originally thought possible. Now closing in on $50, the decline has imperiled all sorts of economies, currencies and derivatives around the globe.

Chief among those imperiled is the original target, Putin's Russia, which has seen the ruble devalue by nearly 50% in past few months, 20% in just the past few days. The US and NATO are already fighting a proxy war versus Russia in Ukraine. How might these events intensify the battles there?

And there are all sorts of other "unknown unknowns" here:

  • The $4T in US TBTF bank commodity derivatives, the majority of which are linked to crude oil.
  • The collapsing currencies and equity markets of other crude oil producing nations.
  • The US high yield bond market with an abundance of debt issued by energy companies.
  • Might even Russia surprise the world by "thinking outside the box", if you get my drift?

So, anyway, please discuss all of this here and be sure to add your own ideas and theories. I'm going to make this a public thread so that anyone stopping by will have the opportunity to explore the collective wisdom of Turdville.

As I close, the US stock market is now UP on the day (big surprise), while the 10-year note and the Long Bond are making new yield lows for 2014. Crude is down but $1.50 off its lows at $55.50 and, of course, gold and silver are DOWN. Again, no surprise there. Silver's actually down 4% and below $16. Funny...I guess I failed to notice how the global fundamental picture for silver has deteriorated by 10% since just last Friday.. Wow, how could I have missed that?


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 16, 2014 - 10:34am


to say JNUG just printed a new 52 week low, where's Gamble ? :-)

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:38am

You said yourself Turd silver

You said yourself Turd silver will be driven down in deflationary cycle together with commodities; that is what is happening; its oil price that has changed since last Friday, about 15% down.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:39am


in ALL the futures markets is extremely thin, pretty easy to move these markets one way or another if one were so inclined

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:41am

Here come the trolls. This

Here come the trolls. This should be highly entertaining.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:41am

thurd, maybem thanks Turd.

Waiting for annual thrashing EOY to buy.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:42am


One really has to wonder what tricks Putin and his advisors have hidden up their sleeves. I find it difficult to believe that the Russians don't have some tools at their disposal to interfere in the US markets and throw a wrench in to the works over here. Whatever "IT" might be - they will need to do something dramatic - soon. What a difference a year makes - 12 months ago, everyone was looking forward to Sochi.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:43am

Mutual Funds Trailing Indexes By Most in Decade

"With mutual fund returns trailing the market by the most in almost a decade, impatience among money managers is exacerbating swings as they seek to make up the gap, according to Gene Peroni, a fund manager at Advisors Asset Management Inc. in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania."

“We’re moving into the final weeks of December and portfolio managers are acting much more quickly and abruptly than they would otherwise to preserve gains and shuffle portfolios,” Peroni said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $14.7 billion. “They’re adjusting their energy weightings if they have some, and to some extent that’s adding to the downward pressure.”


Dec 16, 2014 - 10:44am

Days like today

Make me want to vomit. I guess I should just expect the opposite of what we think to always happen. Oil down 50%? Oh no problem, the stock markets are still up. Proxy war breaking out with Russia? Of course that means gold and silver should be down 2% and almost 5%. I can't wait to watch this shit blow up in their faces.

These people are so desperate to keep their power it is amazing. Think about it like this... can this really continue for another couple years? How about another decade? How about 2 or 3 decades?

Your answer is 100% no. Eventually these markets have to have some connection to the real world. When that day comes, all the fucks in this country (welfare queens, slugs, the downright stupid) will have a very rude awakening.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:44am

There shouldn't be trolls

The rules still apply. The only folks with the ability to comment are Vault subscribers. It's just that the thread is open to be read by everyone.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:45am

Gamble would

make a comment, but he and I both have are hands cut up from catching the knife. My wife is typing this for me now. Damn bandages!!!

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:46am

Exactly, RW

THIS is what is so intriguing/concerning.

Putin must know that this is all being done deliberately against him. How will he respond? We must figure that ALL options are on the table.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:48am

Russia Has $500B In US Treasuries

And their in the middle of an economic war where casualties will high across the board. Enough said

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:49am


Harry Dent: “These falling oil prices trigger these fracking firms. They have 20% of the junk bond high-yield debt in the United States, and that’s all it takes to trigger another financial crisis…”


Edit. Dent says he thinks gold to go to $250 to $400. I call that flat bullshit

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:49am

And don't forget

Several of our sponsors are running specials this week, notably JMBullion and The Doc. Find them here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/precious-metals-store

And TFMR rounds are ALWAYS just spot + $1.99 for Vault subscribers. Right now that makes them $17.75 with FREE shipping. https://www.scottsdalesilver.com/store/product.php?productid=17530

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:50am

Gold backed ruble

A Gold backed Ruble is how i hope Putin responds.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:51am

Again, exactly

All bets are off. The US has created an existential threat against Putin and Russia. How he responds is totally unpredictable at this point. This IS the currency war that so many have written about.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:52am

With Every Ending Comes a New Beginning

Hello Friends,

Long time no chat. I'm going to take the contrarian viewpoint and say that everything is going to be alright, and that we are moving into a new age of harmonious peace around the world. The end of the old Keynesian experiment may be upon us, but the new Keynesian experiment will be one which we can all participate within worldwide.

It's quantum physics!

Scott J

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:53am


Maybe an immediate exit from SWIFT and replacement with their own system. Maybe start accepting only gold for crude.

At this point, anything is possible.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:54am

Hello, Scott

It's always nice to hear from an old friend. I hope you are well.

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:54am

P.S. - Does anyone ever use

P.S. - Does anyone ever use the live chat room?

4 oz
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:55am

They're Hitting PM's again!

Video unavailable
Mr. Fix
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:55am

2nd For the end of the world as we know it thread…

Glad I don't have too much work to do today… Nothing left to do but sit back and enjoy the show…

Personally, I think China has a lot more to do with this that anyone is acknowledging.

They have by far the most to gain by what's going on here, they also have the resources to create a new and respectable global currency when it all collapses. They are probably paying Saudi Arabia to tank the price of oil.

Vladimir Putin knows the West can be defeated without firing a shot, he simply has to wait for the collapse, as Western entities will have nothing to bargain with, when all of their paper promises become worthless.

The “end of the great Keynesian experiment” is playing out in real time, there will be some very big surprises in the very near future, and I wouldn't even expect this to be delayed until after the holidays, the powers that be have absolutely no respect whatsoever for Christmas, and it would be the perfect opportunity to rearrange the chessboard while everyone is distracted.

The only way this ends cleanly, would be for Russia and China to jointly announce a new Gold backed currency, they've been working on one for years. We may see its introduction, very, very soon.

That's when our stacks will be seen in a whole new light…

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:55am

Hello Turd

Great to be back -- such great people within this community. I plan on sticking around again if that's okay. I have a new attitude and stories to go along with it.


Dec 16, 2014 - 10:56am

It's broken

It needs a software update. On the list to get fixed...

Dec 16, 2014 - 10:58am

Some interesting ideas from Bill H

To say that events are now taking place at the speed of light is an understatement. It was just last Monday, I wrote a missive entitled "The Mother of all Bank Runs". In it I wrote about the German and Dutch repatriations of gold which was then followed by the Belgians beginning discussions on the same topic. As a final speculation, I mentioned that "logically the Austrians would be next". There was no way you could have told me it would be less than one week until the same news would actually come out of Austria! Unlike the Germans, Dutch and Belgians who have gold held in N.Y., Paris, and London, Austria holds 80% of their 280 tons of gold concentrated in London. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/breaking-austria-considers-repatriating-its-physical-gold This is truly big news for several reasons which we will explore and it certainly brings up a few more questions.
These four countries represent the core of the European Union. The EU is located in Brussels and the ECB is located in Frankfurt so the "power centers" (or financial centers) if you will are located within this "block" of countries, let's call them the "Nordic bloc". These four are the strength of the euro, they are the highest rated credits and for the most part they alone dictate policy. ...And now, ALL of them will be asking for their gold to be returned to them. The same questions I asked last week still apply, even more so now because of the addition of Austria. Why do they want their gold returned and why now? There are other questions which we can look at shortly.
First, "why"? Why is there all of a sudden this rush by Holland, Belgium and Austria to follow Germany's lead in asking for their gold back. The obvious answer is trust, or better said, lack of trust. For years there have been questions as to whether or not "official gold" has been leased into the markets. These questions have arisen because of the simple math of supply and demand. If China, India and Russia have been gobbling up 100% of current mine supply... then where is the supply coming from to meet the demand from the rest of the world? If there was no trust issue whatsoever, these central banks would not "bother" with where this gold is being held because it brings up questions central banks would prefer you not think about. These questions would obviously include "why" move the gold if it is already "safe"? It also brings up the question of why bother if gold is really not important in today's financial world ...as many central banks will have you believe?
You see, for central banks to ask for their gold must mean it has some importance to them, right? For that matter, why have these countries not asked for dollars, pounds or euro's (from France) for the values of the gold held? Why are these central banks asking for the actual metal? The answer of course is because they know gold is real money and there is no substitute... in other words, there is nothing "as good as gold" when it comes to money. I cannot stress enough how big these actions are because these are central banks bringing publicity to gold in a manner showing just how important the gold really is to them! Let's move on to other questions rather than rehash last weeks missive.
Why and why now are the main questions but I believe these two are wrapped up by "why these four countries"? What this obviously leads us to is the very real potential that the Eurozone which is an imperfect union, will now be "splittable"! These four countries are the center of the "have's" with the rest of Europe being "have nots" for the most part. These four country's gold reserves amount to roughly 4,000 tons. Officially they would be number two in the world behind the U.S., assuming the U.S. has not already divested their gold (I believe we have), "unofficially" this 4,000 tons would make them number two behind China if you believe they 8,000 tons of gold or more (which I do).
These four countries with reserves of 4,000 tons will have the ability to set up a northern or "Nordic euro" ...especially if China revalues gold and re sets the world's financial system which looks very probable in my eyes. Repatriating their gold also does something else which few have thought of so far. Actually having their gold in hand may just allow them to purchase energy from Russia. Remember, Russia is testing their own clearing system to bypass the West's SWIFT system. Would Russia possibly refuse Western currencies for their energy exports if they had a system up and running which could clear rubles and yuan? You bet they would, especially during a time of financial war. Is gold a western currency? Is it an eastern currency? No, gold is the ULTIMATE currency, even Alan Greenspan concedes this!
This theory of a possible European breakup into northern and southern euros has more legs if Russia were to accept the new Nordic" for trade but refuse the "southern euro". Would Russia have more "confidence" and thus be more likely to accept the northern euro ...if it is supported by gold? Gold that is actually accounted for and held within these countries own vaults as opposed to vaults controlled by N.Y. and London?
The answer of course is "yes" but it also brings up another question which has a very humorous answer! For a little background before I ask the question, do you remember why all of this gold was moved to London and New York all those years ago? That's right, there was a fear Stalin or one of his successors would roll tanks across Europe and take the gold ...so the further away from Russia this gold was ...the better! Fast forward to present day, isn't Mr. Putin and Russia the "scary and aggressive" potential invaders of Europe? Why would these countries want their gold within their borders at this EXACT point in time if they have any worries of an aggressive neighbor called Russia? Does this make any sense at all? It does, and the humor is that these four countries apparently trust Mr. Putin and Moscow more than they do the U.S., Britain and the West!
Let me wrap this up and speculate a little as to what I believe is happening because it is clear something IS happening. It can be no coincidence these four core European countries want to repatriate their gold. It is also clear this action signals a change of some sort in their "relations". For this "block" of countries (which is exactly what I believe they will be seen to be) to remove gold from the West and placing it within marching distance from Moscow tells me they trust "us" less than they fear Russia. I also believe they know where this whole game is headed and who is leading it. I believe China will back their currency with a "re marked" price of gold with Russia as their right hand energy man. The game is going toward gold, not away, this Nordic group is simply positioning themselves for when the starting gun is fired.
While the West has tried to "isolate" Russia, we will have succeeded only in isolating ourselves and creating the "cause" for a run on our own banking system. I am not talking about the paper Ponzi scheme banking system as this will also fall, I am talking about an old fashioned and REAL run on the bank! This "run" started slowly and ran for years as China accumulated what we foolishly "gave away". Now, it looks like the "run" is accelerating and the "core four" are taking the attitude "he who panics first panics best"! None of this had to happen but it has and is, simply because the West has done dirty business and ruined credibility. There is absolutely no rationale whatsoever for these banks to ask for their gold back if it is truly safe and they have full and complete faith in the U.S. as custodian and enforcer of the rule of law.
Please understand, the "core four" IS Europe. Other than Britain, Europe is supposed to be America's number one ally. It is obvious allegiances all over the world are changing. It is also obvious what is considered as "important" as far as money and currencies are concerned is also changing, otherwise these countries would accept dollars in lieu of their gold.. The West has bled gold, trust and thus credibility while the East (and new northern Europe partners?) has accumulated gold, trust and thus also credibility. "Power" has always followed gold wherever it went. If gold is leaving London and New York, it is for a very good reason. I believe we may very well see a "Nordic euro" that trades primarily with Russia and China as opposed to the U.S. and Japan. No one has ever run their bank "just for fun", there has to be a reason. I can see no reason for these four countries to act in unison on this issue unless trust is being questioned and/or a break away from the other deadbeat EU nations is planned ...we will see shortly. Regards, Bill Holter
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:58am

Stocks, currencies, precious metals ...

Everyone has their view on what is happening, and here is mine. I'll admit it is partly optimistic but it is my view for what it is worth. Lately I have watched the dollar index go lower overnight only to go higher as dawn breaks here in the US. I suspect foreigners are selling dollars and the Fed is buying both the dollar and US stocks to keep them from collapsing (in addition to bonds, which I also suspect they are buying to keep them from collapsing.) This certainly looks and smells like economic warfare to me, with China and Russia on one side and the US, the UK and Japan on the other. The latter may win a few battles but my belief is the former will win the war.

How to invest given this environment? As Turd has said, and many have re-iterated, physical gold and silver are the way to go. I do pity the miners who are being abused by our government and who have no repercussions. That said, long dated (Jan 17) calls on the miners look inviting for those who have that risk tolerance, and I have some and am watching for a year end, tax loss, puke em up in the miners to buy more.

Dec 16, 2014 - 11:00am

Jim Willie camp

I am in the Jim Willie camp that the Saudis' want to crush the U.S. starting with shale oil. They will announce their allegiance with the East along with accepting payment for oil in any monies, gold,Yuan, etc., when the time is right.

Dec 16, 2014 - 11:01am

My guess?

We could see 1100 gold post FOMC and then another huge reversal. Time to buckle up and get ready to buy this (hopefully final) dip. But WTFDIK?

Dec 16, 2014 - 11:06am

All must be well, I guess

Crude and stocks are now green on the day.

SELL gold

SELL silver

Dec 16, 2014 - 11:07am

What a Joke

Gold up in early morning trading before US opens and now is smashed Lower, what happened in 12 hours? I believe the Russians will surprise the whole world with their Outside the Box Thinking and Strategy. As Putin said in his speeches earlier in the year, the Russians have tools available but don't speak about them until they are "ready to act".


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS