Turdville Open Thread

233
Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 10:32am

As historic events unfold around us, and with markets moving so quickly around the globe, I thought we should try something different today. Hopefully this open thread provides a forum for the free exchange of ideas and opinions as well as headline updates for all the global markets.

My opinion is this:

With overt sanctions against Russia having minimal impact, the U.S. set out on a course of covert sanctions last summer. Among these was a plan to manipulate down the paper price of crude oil as Russia derives nearly 15% of its national income from the sale of crude.

Once price broke $90, the spec algos took over and the growing momentum of the trade has driven price well beyond what the central planners originally thought possible. Now closing in on $50, the decline has imperiled all sorts of economies, currencies and derivatives around the globe.

Chief among those imperiled is the original target, Putin's Russia, which has seen the ruble devalue by nearly 50% in past few months, 20% in just the past few days. The US and NATO are already fighting a proxy war versus Russia in Ukraine. How might these events intensify the battles there?

And there are all sorts of other "unknown unknowns" here:

  • The $4T in US TBTF bank commodity derivatives, the majority of which are linked to crude oil.
  • The collapsing currencies and equity markets of other crude oil producing nations.
  • The US high yield bond market with an abundance of debt issued by energy companies.
  • Might even Russia surprise the world by "thinking outside the box", if you get my drift?

So, anyway, please discuss all of this here and be sure to add your own ideas and theories. I'm going to make this a public thread so that anyone stopping by will have the opportunity to explore the collective wisdom of Turdville.

As I close, the US stock market is now UP on the day (big surprise), while the 10-year note and the Long Bond are making new yield lows for 2014. Crude is down but $1.50 off its lows at $55.50 and, of course, gold and silver are DOWN. Again, no surprise there. Silver's actually down 4% and below $16. Funny...I guess I failed to notice how the global fundamental picture for silver has deteriorated by 10% since just last Friday.. Wow, how could I have missed that?

TF

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  233 Comments

AUandAGbull
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:34am

First

to say JNUG just printed a new 52 week low, where's Gamble ? :-)

ivars
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:38am

You said yourself Turd silver

You said yourself Turd silver will be driven down in deflationary cycle together with commodities; that is what is happening; its oil price that has changed since last Friday, about 15% down.

AUandAGbull
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:39am

Liquidity

in ALL the futures markets is extremely thin, pretty easy to move these markets one way or another if one were so inclined

Barfly
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:41am

Here come the trolls. This

Here come the trolls. This should be highly entertaining.

procog
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:41am

thurd, maybem thanks Turd.

Waiting for annual thrashing EOY to buy.

ReachWest
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:42am

IT

One really has to wonder what tricks Putin and his advisors have hidden up their sleeves. I find it difficult to believe that the Russians don't have some tools at their disposal to interfere in the US markets and throw a wrench in to the works over here. Whatever "IT" might be - they will need to do something dramatic - soon. What a difference a year makes - 12 months ago, everyone was looking forward to Sochi.

perdman
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:43am

Mutual Funds Trailing Indexes By Most in Decade

"With mutual fund returns trailing the market by the most in almost a decade, impatience among money managers is exacerbating swings as they seek to make up the gap, according to Gene Peroni, a fund manager at Advisors Asset Management Inc. in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania."

“We’re moving into the final weeks of December and portfolio managers are acting much more quickly and abruptly than they would otherwise to preserve gains and shuffle portfolios,” Peroni said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $14.7 billion. “They’re adjusting their energy weightings if they have some, and to some extent that’s adding to the downward pressure.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/wildest-day-in-2-months-for-s-...

s1lverbullet
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:44am

Days like today

Make me want to vomit. I guess I should just expect the opposite of what we think to always happen. Oil down 50%? Oh no problem, the stock markets are still up. Proxy war breaking out with Russia? Of course that means gold and silver should be down 2% and almost 5%. I can't wait to watch this shit blow up in their faces.

These people are so desperate to keep their power it is amazing. Think about it like this... can this really continue for another couple years? How about another decade? How about 2 or 3 decades?

Your answer is 100% no. Eventually these markets have to have some connection to the real world. When that day comes, all the fucks in this country (welfare queens, slugs, the downright stupid) will have a very rude awakening.

Barfly
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:44am

There shouldn't be trolls

The rules still apply. The only folks with the ability to comment are Vault subscribers. It's just that the thread is open to be read by everyone.

lund175
Dec 16, 2014 - 10:45am

Gamble would

make a comment, but he and I both have are hands cut up from catching the knife. My wife is typing this for me now. Damn bandages!!!

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