Crude and Rude

QE4 rereleased to theatres soon!

I'm so glad that the whining will end in 24 days!  Going to open up a bottle of something nice, thanks!

You can get a .pdf of the bill that went through the house that Ron Paul is talking about here;

http://www.globalresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/H-Res748.pdf

Santa had this on his site yesterday.

So call me a homer but i think we are all well aware of how past rallies ex: Dec 2013 rally rose quite quickly only to lose steam to cartel capping.  I keep getting the feeling that this rally is different from a sustainable perspective. If the cartel was going to let price rise in an orderly fashion for once and for all I think they would simply allow price to rise then bring each price rise back to the point where it appears we are on the verge of collapsing back. I think in the next few days its crucial if the theory is correct the cartel would more than likely allow price to break 1220 up to 1240-1250 only to let price once again fall back below 1220 making people belive the rally was once again failing.  

This rise is still on track but is at a much slower pace than the parabolic rallies we experienced before that always ended in tears. Im hoping the next couple days lets us know if its more of the same or perhaps we have something going here... On the flip side if the COT shows the Cartel back to net short 150-200 i think we know we are the victim of another capped rally. If the cartel which im hoping keeps their net short position below 100k each time by allow price to fall back each time that is sustainable and i think the rally we need for a healthy multi year rise...

Dr. J., I hope you have really done your research on leveraged ETF's in that you seem to be holding them for fairly long periods of time.

Leveraged ETF's can have extremely large tracking errors, particularly when volatility is high.  The compounding can work for you if the market is going your direction consistently, but the math is basically a you against the house setup.

I'm not trying to tell you what to do, but a JNUG split is very much immaterial in comparison with the tracking error problems.  I believe the reason we are seeing the massive market on close volume in GDX and GDXJ is due to these ETF's closing out the tracking for the day.  Since they only promise tracking for the day, the compounding of the daily moves can lead to tremendous distortions. 

Just my 2 cents...for the record, I hope you're right and that this didn't sound like some lecture :)

I agree with 100% with CPE that the 3x leveraged ETFs don't perform as advertised in volatile markets. However, I still own them in spite of their well documented shortcomings with the assumption that they will easily outperform GDX/GDXJ 

Looking at the longer term chart of crude, who's to say it cannot dip below 40? It did so before, so why not again? And never mind 120,  how about a 150 Yen? How would gold and silver fare in such a bloodbath? None too well, I think. Paper silver was pushed down to 14.25 only a week ago, so perhaps that price level is a harbinger of what is to come as the deflationary mantra gains traction. I understand I'm not going to make a lot of friends with this "negative Nellie" post, but this is what I see. It's just an opinion, not a fact.

PS. The wildcard in all of this, however, appears to be the fact that the paper/physical linkage in gold is under incredible strain near 1140 or so (as identified by Turd). That is something worth watching.

Good advice, makes me wonder if NIRP is intended to indirectly force people to buy US Treasuries? Dunno

So....I could care less for charts predictions, BUT, I will offer this story from my own experience, like first hand with mine own two eyes an ears.

Back in 2005 I was at a family Xmas party , and my nephew was there, in town for the Holidaze, back from Moscow. He was a hi-flyin MBA/Finance type hired by  that big ass Deutsche Bank, to be their oil business attache in Russia. After a few drinks I was able to corner him and tried to ask a few questions. The first I asked was; --- "What is the absolute, all-in, dead ass cost of production figure that you use for Russian oil?" He just stared down at me like I was a bug on the floor. ( the little bastard stands 6'4"). Finally he spit out an answer. "$55." Then he walked away like as if he had given me some exclusive insider info that a little piss-ant like me did not deserve, and wouldn't know what to do with anyways. He was a Great kid before he went to Wall St, but that's another story.

OK, so I guess that figure for oil is  $60 , maybe $65 now. What I see is that TPTB have driven Au and Ag down to their ADACoP, absolute dead ass cost of production, (let's not argue, OK?), and now they have driven oil down to its ADACoP, and they might drop it a touch more just to cause cardiac arrest in a few dozen CEO's -  just as they did with PM's.

Why are they doing this??? Just to put the fear of god into everyone that thought they were immune, like thinking they were sitting on the proverbial Gold Mine (HaHa~!)?

I'm no Psychopath, and I can't begin to imagine the how's and why's of these soulless alien reptoids.

I throw the floor open to suggestions..............................................

probably not going to be a positive for gold in the short term IMO but a lot depends on whether we see GOFO go negative quickly again or not. I also think we need to keep a real close eye on the gold stocks and see how they react to a possible new low in gold, since they led us lower I would expect for them to 'dig in' relative to the gold price and eventually lead us higher

I like the conclusion:

"calls for the reestablishment of a close and cooperative relationship between the people of the United States and the Russian people based on the shared pursuit of democracy, human rights, and peace among all nations."

I have no doubt that it is, but my thought on treasurydirect.gov is that when T-bills die the linen dies too.  The point of treasurydirect.gov is to remove all counterparty risk between the issuer, the custodian and the holder of dollars. 

Dollar/t-bill risk can only be mitigated by going into another asset that has less counterparty risk.  That asset is gold.  Until the linen has died, there remains a need to hold some dollars as that is what the system runs on.  Until the next system is forced upon us by the peasant blood drinkers.

Anybody know why the market just puked?

and desperately looking for something, anything, to happen in the PM markets.  But the collapsing oil price is epic and I can't help but think that it is going to trigger market chaos if it lasts much longer.  So, yes, mattheim, I find it interesting to watch those moving parts.  And thanks, G-Rod, for mentioning the oil-silver de-coupling.  I've been hinting that TF might address this one for a while...

GM

Just posted, check out this correlation between the energy sector and the S&P 500.  As Scooby would say, "Ruh Roh."