The BLSBS Thickens

121
Fri, Dec 5, 2014 - 11:53am

While the mainstream financial media does cartwheels at the glorious new of 321,000 "new jobs", perhaps we should take a peek under the hood to find the actual truth.

Again, there are two "surveys" done by the BLS for their monthly report. These two surveys are known as the "Household Survey" and the "Establishment Survey".

Here's a definition of an Establishment Survey: "An establishment survey is a survey that seeks to measure the behavior, structure, or output of organizations rather than individuals. Establishment surveys include surveys of business that are critical to our understanding of trends in the economy, such as the Economic Census conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. However, establishment surveys also include surveys of universities and colleges, hospitals, and nursing homes."

And here's a definition of a Household Survey: "A household survey is any survey that is administered at the household level. It collects information about the household and the individuals living in those households. It includes Living Standards Measurement Study surveys, Integrated Surveys, Priority Surveys, Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ) surveys, Household Budget Surveys, Labor Force Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys, education surveys, etc."

So, an Establishment Survey gives you a total number of "jobs" as allegedly expressed by surveying companies/employers. The companies allegedly report "X" number of jobs added or subtracted at their individual organizations. These, of course can be part-time OR full-time positions. (I say "allegedly" because the BLSBS is primarily statistical guesswork.)

A Household Survey instead takes into account what is happening at the individual level. This should produce results that indicate whether or not a person is actually working more or less, longer or shorter hours AND how many jobs a person currently holds.

In the end, these two reports often produce conflicting data. As an simplified example:

A middle-aged guy like poor old Turd gets laid off from his regular full-time job. Because he needs to feed his family and is desperate for work to pay the bills, this fellow then takes three part-time jobs in an attempt to maintain his income. So, instead of being an office worker in middle management, this poor fellow now works at Lowe's during the day, tends bar at night and delivers pizza on the weekend.

If you were to survey "Establishments", you find that for one job lost, there have been three jobs created for a net "job gain" of two jobs. However, if you were to survey this guy's household, you wouldn't see it that way. You'd instead be lucky to find a net-net wash.

So, when CNBS and Bloomberg and Yahoo report that "321,000 new jobs were created in November", which survey do you think they are quoting? If you guessed "Establishment", then you win the prize and are hereby promoted to Junior Assistant Turd Level, First Class.

For further detail, I invite you to review these two links from ZeroHedge:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/full-time-jobs-down-150k-parti...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/where-jobs-were-secretaries-wa...

A few bullet point highlights:

  • The Establishment Survey states that 321,000 new jobs were created in November, the most since January of 2012.
  • The Household Survey states that only a net of 4,000 new jobs were created.
  • Also in the Household Survey, the amount of full-time jobs fell by 150,000 while part-time jobs rose by 77,000.
  • And the vast majority of the "new jobs", however you find them, are in the minimum wage or just-above-minimum wage category.

So, please do not be deceived by LIESman, Woody or any other shill who graces your television screen today. The real picture remains bleak. You know it. I know it. Your neighbors know it. Anyone north of 14th Street in Manhattan knows it. Therefore, your only winning move is to allow the computers to continue to sell their paper metal. Use this non-fundamental weakness to continue to accumulate physical metal as financial protection for what lies ahead. The ultimate financial crisis is still most certainly coming, regardless of what today's SPIN and MOPE would have you believe.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  121 Comments

freemarkettrader
Dec 5, 2014 - 11:54am

1st!

1st!!!

ReachWest
Dec 5, 2014 - 12:02pm

Thanks Turd!

Woo - hoo!

I really like my new title - "Junior Assistant Turd Level, First Class"

SteveW
Dec 5, 2014 - 12:03pm

GOFO

rose to positive all across the board. All is well!

kryton619ReachWest
Dec 5, 2014 - 12:06pm

@ReachWest

Perhaps we can treat this like most governments and create another position. Hopefully, I can be the assistant to the junior assistant Turd Level, First Class

AGAU
Dec 5, 2014 - 12:10pm

Main Street "media"

Good thing is - almost no bugger is even watching these cart wheeling assholes now!!

Their ratings are off the cliff ha ha

SteveW
Dec 5, 2014 - 12:12pm

"the amount of full-time jobs fell by 150,000"

Ouch. This always hurts my ears being an old timer from England.

You get numbers of jobs and ounces (and anything else that comes in discrete units) and amounts of frozen yogurt (and anything that is not divisible into units). I know everyone says it and publishes it but it's American and not English.

I have an amount of silver comprised of some number of ounces.

Sorry, /rant off.

Mr. Fix
Dec 5, 2014 - 12:13pm

As Western civilization collapses,

All of these so-called “official numbers”, are nothing but a distraction.

By now, they are widely accepted as completely contrived, pure propaganda, and meaningless in the real world.

The economy is in the nosedive, with no recovery possible.

Why would we analyze such meaningless government propaganda anyway?

ReachWest
Dec 5, 2014 - 12:17pm

All is well in the World!

Double goodness today?!

DOW about to break through 18,000! Yippee Kay Yay! All is well! Lotsa jobs - equities at all time high.

twippers
Dec 5, 2014 - 12:18pm

Paper metal

"Therefore, your only winning move is to allow the computers to continue to sell their paper metal."

Turd, how long can the EE keep selling their paper metal. I find this confusing. Is it similar to a naked short? Can they just keep creating it out of thin air similar to the fed 'creating' paper money? One keystroke and, voila, a mountain new paper metal shorts.

twippers
Dec 5, 2014 - 12:23pm

Yep, that's pretty much how it works

But, ultimately, there MUST BE physical deliveries made at the paper price otherwise the paper price becomes an illegitimate farce. This is what makes the current moment so fascinating!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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