The BLSBS Thickens

118
Fri, Dec 5, 2014 - 11:53am

While the mainstream financial media does cartwheels at the glorious new of 321,000 "new jobs", perhaps we should take a peek under the hood to find the actual truth.

Again, there are two "surveys" done by the BLS for their monthly report. These two surveys are known as the "Household Survey" and the "Establishment Survey".

Here's a definition of an Establishment Survey: "An establishment survey is a survey that seeks to measure the behavior, structure, or output of organizations rather than individuals. Establishment surveys include surveys of business that are critical to our understanding of trends in the economy, such as the Economic Census conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. However, establishment surveys also include surveys of universities and colleges, hospitals, and nursing homes."

And here's a definition of a Household Survey: "A household survey is any survey that is administered at the household level. It collects information about the household and the individuals living in those households. It includes Living Standards Measurement Study surveys, Integrated Surveys, Priority Surveys, Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ) surveys, Household Budget Surveys, Labor Force Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys, education surveys, etc."

So, an Establishment Survey gives you a total number of "jobs" as allegedly expressed by surveying companies/employers. The companies allegedly report "X" number of jobs added or subtracted at their individual organizations. These, of course can be part-time OR full-time positions. (I say "allegedly" because the BLSBS is primarily statistical guesswork.)

A Household Survey instead takes into account what is happening at the individual level. This should produce results that indicate whether or not a person is actually working more or less, longer or shorter hours AND how many jobs a person currently holds.

In the end, these two reports often produce conflicting data. As an simplified example:

A middle-aged guy like poor old Turd gets laid off from his regular full-time job. Because he needs to feed his family and is desperate for work to pay the bills, this fellow then takes three part-time jobs in an attempt to maintain his income. So, instead of being an office worker in middle management, this poor fellow now works at Lowe's during the day, tends bar at night and delivers pizza on the weekend.

If you were to survey "Establishments", you find that for one job lost, there have been three jobs created for a net "job gain" of two jobs. However, if you were to survey this guy's household, you wouldn't see it that way. You'd instead be lucky to find a net-net wash.

So, when CNBS and Bloomberg and Yahoo report that "321,000 new jobs were created in November", which survey do you think they are quoting? If you guessed "Establishment", then you win the prize and are hereby promoted to Junior Assistant Turd Level, First Class.

For further detail, I invite you to review these two links from ZeroHedge:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/full-time-jobs-down-150k-parti...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/where-jobs-were-secretaries-wa...

A few bullet point highlights:

  • The Establishment Survey states that 321,000 new jobs were created in November, the most since January of 2012.
  • The Household Survey states that only a net of 4,000 new jobs were created.
  • Also in the Household Survey, the amount of full-time jobs fell by 150,000 while part-time jobs rose by 77,000.
  • And the vast majority of the "new jobs", however you find them, are in the minimum wage or just-above-minimum wage category.

So, please do not be deceived by LIESman, Woody or any other shill who graces your television screen today. The real picture remains bleak. You know it. I know it. Your neighbors know it. Anyone north of 14th Street in Manhattan knows it. Therefore, your only winning move is to allow the computers to continue to sell their paper metal. Use this non-fundamental weakness to continue to accumulate physical metal as financial protection for what lies ahead. The ultimate financial crisis is still most certainly coming, regardless of what today's SPIN and MOPE would have you believe.

TF

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