The BLSBS Thickens

121
Fri, Dec 5, 2014 - 11:53am

While the mainstream financial media does cartwheels at the glorious new of 321,000 "new jobs", perhaps we should take a peek under the hood to find the actual truth.

Again, there are two "surveys" done by the BLS for their monthly report. These two surveys are known as the "Household Survey" and the "Establishment Survey".

Here's a definition of an Establishment Survey: "An establishment survey is a survey that seeks to measure the behavior, structure, or output of organizations rather than individuals. Establishment surveys include surveys of business that are critical to our understanding of trends in the economy, such as the Economic Census conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. However, establishment surveys also include surveys of universities and colleges, hospitals, and nursing homes."

And here's a definition of a Household Survey: "A household survey is any survey that is administered at the household level. It collects information about the household and the individuals living in those households. It includes Living Standards Measurement Study surveys, Integrated Surveys, Priority Surveys, Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ) surveys, Household Budget Surveys, Labor Force Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys, education surveys, etc."

So, an Establishment Survey gives you a total number of "jobs" as allegedly expressed by surveying companies/employers. The companies allegedly report "X" number of jobs added or subtracted at their individual organizations. These, of course can be part-time OR full-time positions. (I say "allegedly" because the BLSBS is primarily statistical guesswork.)

A Household Survey instead takes into account what is happening at the individual level. This should produce results that indicate whether or not a person is actually working more or less, longer or shorter hours AND how many jobs a person currently holds.

In the end, these two reports often produce conflicting data. As an simplified example:

A middle-aged guy like poor old Turd gets laid off from his regular full-time job. Because he needs to feed his family and is desperate for work to pay the bills, this fellow then takes three part-time jobs in an attempt to maintain his income. So, instead of being an office worker in middle management, this poor fellow now works at Lowe's during the day, tends bar at night and delivers pizza on the weekend.

If you were to survey "Establishments", you find that for one job lost, there have been three jobs created for a net "job gain" of two jobs. However, if you were to survey this guy's household, you wouldn't see it that way. You'd instead be lucky to find a net-net wash.

So, when CNBS and Bloomberg and Yahoo report that "321,000 new jobs were created in November", which survey do you think they are quoting? If you guessed "Establishment", then you win the prize and are hereby promoted to Junior Assistant Turd Level, First Class.

For further detail, I invite you to review these two links from ZeroHedge:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/full-time-jobs-down-150k-parti...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/where-jobs-were-secretaries-wa...

A few bullet point highlights:

  • The Establishment Survey states that 321,000 new jobs were created in November, the most since January of 2012.
  • The Household Survey states that only a net of 4,000 new jobs were created.
  • Also in the Household Survey, the amount of full-time jobs fell by 150,000 while part-time jobs rose by 77,000.
  • And the vast majority of the "new jobs", however you find them, are in the minimum wage or just-above-minimum wage category.

So, please do not be deceived by LIESman, Woody or any other shill who graces your television screen today. The real picture remains bleak. You know it. I know it. Your neighbors know it. Anyone north of 14th Street in Manhattan knows it. Therefore, your only winning move is to allow the computers to continue to sell their paper metal. Use this non-fundamental weakness to continue to accumulate physical metal as financial protection for what lies ahead. The ultimate financial crisis is still most certainly coming, regardless of what today's SPIN and MOPE would have you believe.

TF

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  121 Comments

freemarkettrader · Dec 5, 2014 - 11:54am

1st!

1st!!!

ReachWest · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:02pm

Thanks Turd!

Woo - hoo!

I really like my new title - "Junior Assistant Turd Level, First Class"

SteveW · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:03pm

GOFO

rose to positive all across the board. All is well!

kryton619 ReachWest · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:06pm

@ReachWest

Perhaps we can treat this like most governments and create another position. Hopefully, I can be the assistant to the junior assistant Turd Level, First Class

AGAU · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:10pm

Main Street "media"

Good thing is - almost no bugger is even watching these cart wheeling assholes now!! 

Their ratings are off the cliff ha ha 

SteveW · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:12pm

"the amount of full-time jobs fell by 150,000"

Ouch. This always hurts my ears being an old timer from England.

You get numbers of jobs and ounces (and anything else that comes in discrete units) and amounts of frozen yogurt (and anything that is not divisible into units). I know everyone says it and publishes it but it's American and not English.

I have an amount of silver comprised of some number of ounces.

Sorry, /rant off.

Mr. Fix · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:13pm

As Western civilization collapses,

All of these so-called “official numbers”, are nothing but a distraction.

By now, they are widely accepted as completely contrived, pure propaganda, and meaningless in the real world.

 The economy is in the nosedive, with no recovery possible.

 Why would we analyze such meaningless government propaganda anyway? 

ReachWest · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:17pm

All is well in the World!

Double goodness today?!

DOW about to break through 18,000! Yippee Kay Yay! All is well! Lotsa jobs - equities at all time high.

twippers · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:18pm

Paper metal

"Therefore, your only winning move is to allow the computers to continue to sell their paper metal."

Turd, how long can the EE keep selling their paper metal. I find this confusing. Is it similar to a naked short? Can they just keep creating it out of thin air similar to the fed 'creating' paper money? One keystroke and, voila, a mountain new paper metal shorts.

twippers · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:23pm

Yep, that's pretty much how it works

But, ultimately, there MUST BE physical deliveries made at the paper price otherwise the paper price becomes an illegitimate farce. This is what makes the current moment so fascinating!

TomMack · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:24pm

Wings too?

Since i guessed correctly and am now a jr. 1 class ass. turd ...do i get wings also?

j/k

stack on ... within reason

CPE · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:24pm

@ twippers

Once upon a time a man told a small village, “I will buy monkeys for $10 each.”

Since there were many monkeys in the forest, the villagers caught them and sold them to the man.

As the supply of monkeys diminished, the villagers’ efforts slowed, so the man offered them $20 each.

They renewed their efforts but the supply of monkeys diminished further, so he increased his price to $25.

Soon no one could even find a monkey in the forest.

The man increased his price to $50, but announced, “Since I must go to the city on business, I authorize my assistant to buy monkeys on my behalf.”

As soon as his boss was gone, the assistant told the villagers, “My boss has collected lots of monkeys. I’ll sell them to you for $35 and then, when he returns, you can sell them to him for $50.”

The villagers rounded up all the money they could and bought as many monkeys as possible. Then they had monkeys everywhere…

… but they never saw the man or his assistant again.

And now you understand the workings of the stock market!

The Twist on the above is "Monkey Receipts"(tm)

Monkey Banks have figured out how to sell Monkey Receipts to the villagers, which the villagers like because they are easier to carry and don't require leashes or corrals. There is no danger of the Monkeys escaping. So the Monkey Banks sold 100 times more receipts than the # of Monkeys in existence. Everything was well and good until the villagers tried to cash in with the man.

SquibLoad · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:25pm

Thank you sir may I have another

I gave a yippee this morning knowing that a beat down was coming. I know we’re all at different points along our own time line here and some of you have been stacking as long as I’ve been alive, but I rejoice a good smashing since it means that money just went on sale. We all know that it’s hard to stack with a family at your side. Children and spouses don’t dig the “you’ll understand one day ..” talk when friends are enjoying high-definition ski vacations and you’re offering a cathode ray tube staycations and the promise of food on the table in the future.

Stack-on!

canary · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:27pm

Game of patience

China makes in know they want inclusion of renminbi/yuan in the SDRs basket. more than 30 Central Banks hold renminbi as a reserve currency. The IMF reviews the make up of SDRs every 5 ears, and the next review is scheduled for late next year (2015). Likely China will show some f their gold by then. 

freemarkettrader · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:29pm

Bad Guys Win Again

So GOFO goes positive (where did the gold come from???), gold and silver were successfully capped, Miners were signalling all week that the end of the rally/bounce came on Monday and now given weakness across the board it looks like we are set to go lower next week.

When does this end? When does supply/demand matter. Every time we seem to be getting close, the suppression intensifies.

AUandAGbull · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:38pm

@ freemarkettrader

It ends when we figure out how to shut down Comex gold and silver futures trading

rl999 · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:41pm

should have seen it coming

The numbers are obviously reflecting the seasonal hiring for "buy lots of crap from china season".

I should have seen this coming and made a few quick bucks with zsl or something similar.

Maybe I can remember this in a month or two and go long with agq since there *should be a corresponding decline. (whether that decline is reflected in the data or not...)

surfergod · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:50pm

Mining Conference panel discussion

Fascinating discussion, yet overall bullish on gold. Interestingly, sponsored by Scotiabank with discussion of backwardation, predictions on future gold prices, comex, ETFs effect on the gold market, Chinese/Indian/Russian demand. Rob McEwen, panelist and highly successful/respected gold mining CEO is well worth listening to. I happily own shares in his company, McEwen Mining and received this link as a shareholder from Twitter.

DE OPPRESSO LIBER

https://www.platformwebcast.com/scotiabank021214/index25.html

GoldenWizard · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:52pm

Bonkers

Eventually this BLSBS will come back and bite the the Bankers hard. The jobs data is all BS, can't wait till the reset, then all government data will be shown to be nothing more then BS.

Gamble · Dec 5, 2014 - 12:54pm

Watch for volatility today

If we are to believe we have bottom and the so called smart money knows it then expect a snap back today , this selling is basically algos doing what they do on any positive jobs report ! Remember all past Fridays and the big snap back on Sunday night! 

Gamble gamble

cautiously adding jnug here!

AUandAGbull · Dec 5, 2014 - 1:03pm

Re: Watch for volatility today

you're a braver man than I am :-) My guess is that they will try and take out the GCG5 lows @ 1189.6 and we cascde down to 1180 and then more of the same next week...I'm done with gold, gonna just buy the Nikkei and admit defeat :-)

joeblack · Dec 5, 2014 - 1:03pm

My guess it .....

They won't allow a bullish reversal candle on the weekly or monthly charts.

How many funds are going to want to show gold or the miners on their books at year end?

G-Rod · Dec 5, 2014 - 1:04pm

Wow. the nikkei is up 1.79 %

Japanese companies must be so incredibly profitable. Incredibly so...

· Dec 5, 2014 - 1:07pm

Just slowing washing out

Why? Because The Fed might raise rates sooner? Rrrriiiggghhhttt...

Nope. The Yen is down nearly 1.5% just today and the USDJPY is now WAY ABOVE 120 at 121.491

Gold has A LOT of catching up to do and, as you can see, ever since GOFO began to flip on Tuesday, look at what is happening. No coincidence at all that GOFO began to flip on the day immediately following the HUGE reversal and ORD that was Monday. NO COINCIDENCE AT ALL.

As you can see, 121+ USDJPY "implies" $1130 gold. Let's see what next week brings.

CPE · Dec 5, 2014 - 1:07pm

@ mattheim

"I'm done with gold, gonna just buy the Nikkei and admit defeat :-)"

Why do you continue to sow doubt?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/07/30/govt-knows-best-white-house-...

G-Rod · Dec 5, 2014 - 1:15pm

Nirvana

Would be Literally buying the Nikkei with $ USD. All we need to do is to get the Japanese to ditch the Yen for the $ Dollar. ....

AgAuMan · Dec 5, 2014 - 1:15pm

It Ends When It Ends

There was a time that I thought we would see a steady increasing im PM prices as the money printing increased. I have come to change my view (or should I say... I have been forced to change my view) on this and now believe that a new normal will happen all at once (over night or over a weekend). As long as the comex can settle delivery with cash, prices will not (can not) be allowed to increase. I am just thankful that I can trade my paper for metal. Like our fearless leader I have paid in the teens, 20's, 30's, 40's, 3o's, 20's and now the teens again for my metal. I have not sold one oz yet. As long as you don't go all in at one time and keep enough paper on hand to pay your bills you will be fine. I am also thankful for this site, its nice to be reminded by like minded people that I am not nuts (or maybe we are all nuts). I do have to admit though that from time to time, when I turn on CNBS and watch with the sound on, I do doubt for a brief moment if I am doing the right thing. Those moment are few and far between these days.

Don't worry be happy...

Gamble AUandAGbull · Dec 5, 2014 - 1:16pm

Matt

I'm guessing we bounce of that 1189 and close higher towards 1200?!??!

gamble gamble

we will know soon enough!

AUandAGbull · Dec 5, 2014 - 1:22pm

@ gamble

I'd love to see it, just nibbled on a little NUGT just in case you're right :-)

nibble nibble

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