New From Paul Mylchreest

43
Thu, Dec 4, 2014 - 10:15am

Longtime Turdites will recall that Paul Mylchreest is an excellent metals analyst. His latest report explores in great detail the ongoing link between the price of gold and the value of the Japanese yen which, as you know, is a theme we've already been following here for months.

This is a lengthy and detailed summary and it is chock full of terrific information about the gold--yen link, the global gold "market" and GOFO/backwardation. Please take the time to scroll through it and thank you to Paul for sharing it!

TF

Nikkei Gold Danger

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  43 Comments

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AGAU
Dec 4, 2014 - 4:14pm

I will hve to read that again

and again and again (not too bright around this stuff) but wha t a great community here, I have learned so much and even if I seem to retain only 10% of it I can rest assured that I am probably more educated now than almost every financial advisor I have ever talked to.

So I guess its the eventual lack of physical that will put the stick in the spokes of long Nikkei /short gold trade?

CPE
Dec 4, 2014 - 3:50pm

The 1 min Yen chart

looks like an EKG readout, I'd say Kuroda has nearly killed his island. Have they decided to invade China yet?

Ned BradenVerus nemo
Dec 4, 2014 - 3:29pm

I remain in awe

of what our humble host has managed to create here at TFMR. Not only superb technical analysis from TF but a growing cast of high-profile Doctors, Attorneys, Metals Analysts et. al., who understand what is at stake.

And all this for a measly $10 a month!

matt_
Dec 4, 2014 - 3:27pm

Great report

If his thesis is correct, it seems like this will blow up at some point in the not too distant future. Makes me want to go out and buy silver.

Verus nemo
Dec 4, 2014 - 3:21pm

IMVHO

this is the finest, most complete explanation for the charade we've endured for nearly 3 years!

I'm not a trader so I'll not manage to (directly) 'profit' from it but have been stacking both gold and silver throughout the three year beat-down and so understanding the why and how behind the scheme is enormously reassuring to my path.

I have been watching both the lbma's gofo & glr data and watching the following charts (click through the various time durations available) now for months. Take a really close look on the 5 year chart at what was happening to AUX/JPY relative to the AUX/USD starting in about November 2012 and leading through the April 12-15 2013 debacle:

https://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/index.html?currency=jpy&timePeriod=5...

I believe that the price of gold in JPY was about to get away from them forever and we're frequently seeing the same divergences these days.

Thanks, Craig, for this outstanding site and especially for this individual post. Thanks too Paul for pulling it all together and answering questions here. I treasure this community.

silver66
Dec 4, 2014 - 2:44pm

Who gets thrown under the bus

Good question, probably someone who deserves it either though negligence, ignorance or deserving of getting it.

If you hold physical, you don't care

This is not a flippant statement

Silver66

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Chuck Diesel
Dec 4, 2014 - 2:33pm

I just sent this research report to ZeroHedge

Tyler wrote me back immediately and said that they will do a post on it shortly. Well done Paul!

SteveW
Dec 4, 2014 - 2:19pm

Seems to me

that the idea of a silver hedge grew out of the unusual divergence of ETFs and COMEX contract levels that we have been mystified about this past 2 years.

If the thesis is correct and this is all held together by overnight repos then any lack of liquidity (e.g. due to falling oil prices) could lead to an explosive unwinding. Who's going to be thrown under the bus this time and will the financial masters be able to paper it over yet again? If this is not contained then any possibly silver hedge will likely be irrelevant, they'll just steal bank deposits.

Definitely a thought provoking read!

CPE
Dec 4, 2014 - 2:10pm

@jaw777

That truly made me lol! h/t

jaw777
Dec 4, 2014 - 2:09pm

Thanks CPE

I guess I should have Googled it, but I prefer to get my stock trading advice from anonymous blog posters!

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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