New From Paul Mylchreest

Thu, Dec 4, 2014 - 10:15am

Longtime Turdites will recall that Paul Mylchreest is an excellent metals analyst. His latest report explores in great detail the ongoing link between the price of gold and the value of the Japanese yen which, as you know, is a theme we've already been following here for months.

This is a lengthy and detailed summary and it is chock full of terrific information about the gold--yen link, the global gold "market" and GOFO/backwardation. Please take the time to scroll through it and thank you to Paul for sharing it!


Nikkei Gold Danger

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Ned Braden Verus nemo
Dec 4, 2014 - 3:29pm

I remain in awe

of what our humble host has managed to create here at TFMR. Not only superb technical analysis from TF but a growing cast of high-profile Doctors, Attorneys, Metals Analysts et. al., who understand what is at stake.

And all this for a measly $10 a month!

Dec 4, 2014 - 3:50pm

The 1 min Yen chart

looks like an EKG readout, I'd say Kuroda has nearly killed his island. Have they decided to invade China yet?

Dec 4, 2014 - 4:14pm

I will hve to read that again

and again and again (not too bright around this stuff) but wha t a great community here, I have learned so much and even if I seem to retain only 10% of it I can rest assured that I am probably more educated now than almost every financial advisor I have ever talked to.

So I guess its the eventual lack of physical that will put the stick in the spokes of long Nikkei /short gold trade?

Dec 4, 2014 - 4:18pm

Probably crossed a number of minds here SIFO

SIFO disappears too - as Paul so aptly puts "...Another coincidence..." Many thanks for the article!

Cessation of SIFO 11:00 Means with effect from 5th November 2012.

Following consultation with the LBMA forward Market Makers, and more generally with other market participants, the LBMA Management Committee has agreed that after 2nd November 2012, the forward Market Makers will cease making contributions of their mid-price silver forward rates to allow the calculation of the SIFO means on the Reuters system each day.

Dec 4, 2014 - 4:28pm

If it hasn't already.

"So I guess its the eventual lack of physical that will put the stick in the spokes of long Nikkei /short gold trade?"

Dec 4, 2014 - 4:29pm


Perhaps Kuroda and the BoJ are the futures "traders" responsible for the cynical trade...

CME offers rebates for the volume, Central Banks trade futures, who cares about Japanese stawks more than the Japanese? The world has forgotten about Japanese equities, but a roaring "wealth effect" during currency destruction with a suppressed alternative (gold) would fit nicely with Kuroda and crazy Abe's Kamakazi of an entire nation.

Dec 4, 2014 - 5:23pm

Big Banker Pilots (An original RNN Cartoon movie)

Great to see Paul commenting in this thread! Fabulous access we have here in Turdville.

And .. for some fun .. here is a trip down Memory lane that RNN (that's me) created a couple of years back for fun and relaxation.. Watch as Chairman Ben of the Fed uses his amazing Keynesian skills to pilot the world economy into a crash landing. It's parody - but fun. This video only ever got 230 views - YoutTube originally disallowed it because they claimed it infringed on copyrights (The original name was "Snakes Fly a Plane").

Anyway - here it is - 8 minutes of silliness - exclusive to Turdville.

​A couple of screenshots..

Dec 4, 2014 - 6:01pm

Reach West

Great job on the video, I visited your youtube site . I see you have made other videos. What a constructive way to wake people up


Safety Dan
Dec 4, 2014 - 7:57pm
DAGEORGE42 Safety Dan
Dec 4, 2014 - 8:52pm

Best article I've seen on this site

This is excellent work. Extremely detailed and makes complete sense. If this is indeed true, it could take some time to unwind, but the next major risk off environment should result in some de leveraging and hence an unwind of Nikkei/gold pair trade. This is the only rational explanation I've seen which drives why gold has gotten killed with central bank balance sheets exploding in size. None of us can predict when it blows, so you have to be there now before it blows up. Could take three years, could be Monday morning. Shorting a risk less asset to buy one with risk won't end well. Especially when the world realizes that QE does nothing for sustainable economic growth I own a lot of gold and reading this article scares the shit out of me. The size of this trade is likely beyond huge If it exploded all equity markets would crash And gold would explode higher

Dec 5, 2014 - 2:45am

Bravo, Paul

This is indeed an epic presentation, thank you for sharing. Questions: 1) If the theory is correct (and I see no reason to think otherwise), what if any impact does exposing it going to have? As it's stickied on ZH, the entire trading world should have read it by morning. (BTW, nailguns and hit tubs are no-nos) 2) Who else but a large Western (but at minimum large) central bank (or several) has the firepower to continuously buy Nikkei/short gold futures in such volume for several years? Not to mention opportunity and motive? If true, this would mean it continues until the sponsoring entity implodes - which in turn will likely make the paper price of PMs the least of our problems... PS: Great to see you around, ReachWest! I need to catch up on RNN, I miss those brilliant newscasts.

Dec 5, 2014 - 5:13am

Has the unwind already started

Since the beginning of November, both the Nikkei and Gold have trended up.

Dec 5, 2014 - 10:15am

Great analysis. Usually, once

Great analysis. Usually, once a trade like this is made public, it quickly runs its course. What will be the next long/short trade to suppress gold?


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Recent Comments

by SquibLoad, 44 sec ago
by Solsson, 36 min 32 sec ago
by Joseph Warren, 43 min 2 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 1 hour 24 min ago