Mon, Dec 1, 2014 - 10:49am

Tops and Bottoms are often made through wild volatility. While the jury is still out regarding a Bottom, the volatility sure is impressive. In fact, with just a few more ticks to the upside today, both gold and silver will paint TMOAORDs onto their respective charts.

So what was last night? Was the steep selloff just an over-reaction to the SGI rejection? I just don't think so. The decisive 77-23 loss was too great for it to be surprising for anyone in the know...AND...the selloff was too sharp and sudden. It was all during New York Globex hours and it was essentially over 45 minutes into trading. Here's another example of complete BS and misinformation from Kitco:

As noted above, the selloff wasn't in "Asian trading", the "Asian" markets weren't even open yet. The selloff occurred in the first 45 minutes of NEW YORK Globex trading. This leads me to think that it was primarily related to this headline:

Either the Brevan Howard fund itself dumped a bunch of positions OR the steep selloff across ALL commodities was simple fear and front-running ahead of the Brevan Howard liquidations. We'll never know for sure and it really doesn't matter much, given what has happened since.

We first noted the oddity of trading last evening when, suddenly, the gold market went dead quiet. After the steep initial drop, gold then traded in a $2 range for over four hours! See the blue rectangle on the chart below:

It then surged higher, only to appear as if it was simply filling the gap left on the chart from the lower open (blue arrow). Then, just as most folks likely thought the bottom was ready to fall out again, it surged higher still (black arrow).

And now, as I type, gold is $1193 and more than $50 off of the lows. Madness.

Of course, what is most encouraging about all of this is the rebound. We've been pinpointing the action around November 5-7 as pivotal and the lows from those days held again last evening. Is the area between $1130 and $1150 the physical breaking point? Is that the price level at which The Bullion Banks are simply unable to source physical metal for immediate delivery? Have we found the spot where the long-awaited break of the paper--physical connection finally occurs? The action last evening certainly reinforces this opinion.

Take a look at the chart below. Note that, since the GOFO break of 11/6, paper price simply has been unable to stay below the $1150 level. Is this due to The Bullion Banks thwarting the Specs by putting down a floor? If so, we would expect to see sharp rebounds from the $1150 area and that is exactly what we have seen...especially last night and into today!

And GOFO continues to "worsen". See below and note that the 12-month rate is on the verge of flipping negative for the second time EVER, the only other occurrence being September 29, 1999 at the height of the Washington Agreement panic.

And silver played right along, at one point being down well over 10%, only to rebound sharply as well. I have an overnight low in the March15 silver of $14.43, just barely overshooting my $14.65 bottom target and certainly close enough to call it a successful test of that level. Silver is now back to $16.22 as I type, a full 12+% UP from the lows. WOW! And now it, too, is looking for TMOAORDs.

OK, I'll put you out of your misery...








The intraday highs from Friday were $1199.30 and $16.51. A close above there, after last nights drop, would constitute an Outside Reversal Day.

We'll see, I guess. For now, I'm just glad we're at $1193 and not $1093...

OK, I'd better get this posted but, before you go, please be sure you read these three links. First, this ZH link from Charles Hugh Smith that eloquently states what I was warning you about back on Saturday. Specifically,
"Every sustained action has more than one consequence. Some consequences will appear positive for a time before revealing their destructive nature. Some will be foreseeable, some will not. Some will be controllable, some will not. Those that are unforeseen and uncontrollable will trigger waves of other unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences."

Then there's this. I'm not sure about the guy's math and we certainly have no way of know if Mr. Putin is taking ALL of his oil revenue and plowing it into physical gold. Regardless, this is worth reading:

And, finally, our pal Jim Quinn chimes in with this succinct post that is so simple, even the anti-gold blockheads should be able to understand it:

As I close, I've got $1197 and $16.25. Very nice. Let's see what the rest of the day brings then summarize it all, complete with a CoT recap, with a full podcast review later this afternoon.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


· Dec 1, 2014 - 10:54am


After all the neighing about firsts... for shame, for shame.

Now we can all watch the action, while our fearless leader keeps an eye on the prize! And it is some epic action, no doubt about it- greatest show on earth, and its just getting started.

· Dec 1, 2014 - 10:54am

Gold trying to print a "12"

When it does, we may see another very quick jump toward stiff resistance at $1204-1206.

J.P. Cubish · Dec 1, 2014 - 10:54am

Three or four

Interesting day

StevenBHorse · Dec 1, 2014 - 10:55am

1 and only

I will ever claim.

1st on Epic thread.


I accept all the shit that I will take. I deserve it.

lund175 · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:06am

Am I Turd ?

I mean 3rd.

Edit, I will take 4

jwmkratz · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:08am

How Many Times Do We Have to Bounce off $1140-1150

To get a confirmation that gold supply is tight? It looks like the risk levels are decreasing with every bounce and that a trading range might be profitable. I'll take the MOAORD but would rather have the MOASS. Got to build a staircase to somewhere and what we're seeing, if it holds up, may just give us a full year where gold rises. Got a ways to go, but we've got a chance... 

pforth · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:09am

Got to admit I didn't see this one coming...

The nice thing about my ChartChatter tool is that it keep me honest with myself. I caught the first part of the downdraft right but missed the final spike down and then all of the ride back up:

Not bad, not great, but then again, I don't know anyone anywhere who called our FUBM today. I wouldn't have expected it in a million years last night.

Mads Trauson · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:09am

Brevan Howard

If you read in the press about Brevan Howard liquidating a fund rest assured that the selling will ALWAYS have taken place already.

ArtL · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:11am

The post SGI beatdown didn't last very long.

perhaps the underlying upward pressure on price is stronger than we thought.

Kismet · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:11am

Not Fifth

I need a fifth to calm the emotions and the nerves!

Edit: Not Fifth, need to post quicker!

realitybiter · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:12am

There is not a great deal of resistance

above this...for about $40.

Like I said last night, I am sure the Chinese crapped their pants yesterday, borrowed some dependz from the Japanese....right. Last night was "someone" selling to "no one"...creating a price....I doubt the Chinese even cared. Slightly amused, maybe.

Rickards recently said (two days ago), and I paraphrase, "gold is funny. It will go down until it doesn't. When it starts rising, it will see a $100 up day, then 2, then 3....soon it will be looking at new highs and people will freak out to buy some and none will be available for the everyman, only central banks. Things that I thought wouldn't happen until next year or 2016 seem to be happening now..."

Just a point to are halfway to a hundred dollar day today. Not saying it is going to happen, but only advising to keep an eye open. If and when this happens, I think a lot of stuff will line up.....look to the left highs are going to be slain. Trendlines will be broken. Positive Divergences will be everywhere. And likely, at that moment, shit will be hitting the "news" fan, and your LCS will be begging for inventory...All I am saying is be aware.

Though, tempted, I'll spare BM my vulgaraties. There. That should guarantee everything PM relates sells off!

Oh, and the bonds are separating widely today between "high yield" aka junk, and gubmint treasuries....not a good sign for wall or main street. Brace for impact.

silver66 · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:20am

77 ounces of silver

have been removed from the system wink

Or you could say 5.1 ounces of gold were acquired are very cheap prices, if you follow Silver66 logic

Stack till it hurts


J.P. Cubish · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:31am

TMX Money Site

Was really slow, now not working. Must be getting a lot of visitors today.

Finally got a quote for First Majestic after a couple minutes.

CPE · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:35am




Mickey · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:38am


i was reading your post on the 12 handle and your saying gold could move to 1205 quickly just as it happened-just strange to see it play out as I was reading it.

whats next? (if you can make 2-3 successive correct calls you da man.

Gamble · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:40am

We breathing

Sure looked grey and dark there for awhile! Can't believe the shithouse luck of holding and adding jnug into the close Friday !

gamble gamble

i was close to packing it in , that's a clear sign of a bottom! 

Oh yeah and turd that dark feeling you had , remember it and embrace it ! 

· Dec 1, 2014 - 11:42am

Didn't draw the six-shooter last night

My wife and I watched price for an hour at 14.90 last night, during an earthquake 25 miles away in Sedona AZ, scratching our heads wondering if it was a "sign" from God. We finally decided save our dry powder to build a cabin.

No regrets. My hat is tipped to all who secured a purchase during the dip. My income has diminished the past two years and we just cannot put as much in metal as we used to. Our prepping plans have slowed to a crawl. Meanwhile, we have other priorities--like securing a lien-free home to live in just in case the economy takes a swan dive into shallow water. 

I don't think the fireworks are over, just taking a breather for a few weeks, months? Let's see what oil does now.

AUandAGbull · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:44am

Gold stocks

need to get some legs here 

edit: gold stocks underperforming the metal is NOT bullish

nadgeskaul · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:46am

Miners Running Well Behind Here

Look for an epic 10-12 point surge in the next 1-2 trading sessions in the HUI. It's only being dragged down by a slight general equity market down-day. But, we all know those are RARE and won't last.

Good time to pick up some JNUG shares (glorified options).

The equity market will meet its demise in January. It followed the Crude Swoon of '08 by about a month. 

History doth repeat itself.

gldslv · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:47am

check out yahoo finance headline for what the nonsense

Yahoo Finance

Oil, gold crash spell end of commodity ‘supercycle'

and then look at the market prices above. tell me that this isn't the most organized cartel you ever met. Smash price, lump oil with gold and create a bullshit headline. Oil is not money and I wish everyone would stop (including this site) calling gold a commodity...too bad the physical market is not following the narrative..

For someone who has been closely following since 2005 things are getting chippy for real money! If you had a few billion dollars would you short oil here or buy physical gold?

jwmkratz · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:51am


Rickards also said we wouldn't be given a warning, that when the SHTF it will happen so quickly that it catches everyone by surprise.. even the market elites. That it might be a failure to deliver, a hedge fund that blows up, a derivative nightmare, or even a suicide that tips the scales. This site might not know what the "it" is, but there's a growing number that can sense something is not right and can at least react to whether it's imminent, or sometime soon, or not all. I remember watching CNBC's Larry Kudlow during the Lehman meltdown and how the overnight Libor began to rise in anticipation of "something". It was a telltale to Kudlow and eventually we found out what the problem was.

It really takes so little to prepare and, yet, those unsuspecting will have done nothing, and will face hardships for their family that may have been softened or even avoided. I guess that's why I spend my $10 a month here.

CPE · Dec 1, 2014 - 11:52am


You posted this ZH link before:

Are you able to look at what time GOFO was published vs what time we saw the rebound? Would be interesting if this "fundamental" moved price...

Barfly · Dec 1, 2014 - 12:00pm

The best description I've

The best description I've ever heard likens a market crash to a herd of cattle about to stampede. Somebody on the perimeter of the herd senses danger and changes behavior, others in the herd pick up on it and the nervousness spreads. Eventually, members of the herd start losing control of their bodily functions and the smell hits every member. Then, somebody breaks and runs for it in some direction, not necessarily the right direction.

I think we're in the phase that the peripheral cattle are sensing something is wrong.

The stampede is going to be epic.

realitybiter · Dec 1, 2014 - 12:00pm


who knows? I suspect that they are kind of in a wait and see mode. As in, "gold, show me that you are done cheating on me for good this time, and then I'll come back." I think if metals make a quick acceleration, we get some miner catch up. Miners are also going to get hit by the debt market freeze up. Not as if miners can borrow money like Jamie Dimon - you know, just put on the Presidential cufflinks and load up......but higher PM prices will make them seem like low credit risks... $20+ silver would do the trick!

Kismet · Dec 1, 2014 - 12:02pm

@ Dr. Jerome

Dr. Jerome, I have been thinking about your comments on many posts about paying off the Mortgage early. The wife and I have had similar conversations (she is still not convinced that the economy is evolving); however, I have managed to convince her of the following:

1. Inflation is coming, due to massive money printing.

2. The stock market is going to crash, due to a number of reasons. (Demographics being key.)

3. If we do have to leave the house, the early payments are lost forever. However, if we invest in AG/AU we can take it with us.

She is OK with this, but I still get the "look" when we have a FUTF.

ABQBear · Dec 1, 2014 - 12:02pm


I was feeling like a real tool last night.

I rushed myself into a purchase Friday morning before leaving on the family tree trek (found a decent tree on .gov land; $10 cutting permit). 60 ASEs, 1 ATB, 1 Graded Morgan, a few PAMP Suisse this-and-thats... Ag @ $15.60, Au @ $1180ish. Wanted to get all up on that Provident ASE $2.39 premium. Wow...

Had some heartburn watching that shit show last night. Wife kept looking over at me with disgust (she's been a good sport for so many years now...). She texted me this morning before I got to the office with the FUBM (I didn't have the nuts to open the charts this morning fearing I'd have to write-down my spreadsheet again; although I know this is a looong time hold... hopefully for my son or other loved-one). Was a great surprise and a shot in the arm I needed. 

I'm pretty young (elderly Millenial?; early thirties), so my hands are stronger with my longer time-horizon until retirement (or whatever the world delivers to my life).

Have a great day, Turdville... this is getting more interesting each week. Bought some Balvenie 15yr Single Barrel on Saturday... enjoyed some last night during the slaughter. Will enjoy it more this evening, fondling my stack. God... I'm such a slave to the fucking dollar. What a nightmare existence sometimes. 

AlienEyes · Dec 1, 2014 - 12:08pm


I couldn't stand it last night so I put the grab on a half oz president's wife.

That felt so good, I went to another dealer's site and bought 3 - 20 franc Swiss gold pieces and 3 - 10 oz JM silver bars.

Then I turned in and slept like a baby. smiley

Hawkman · Dec 1, 2014 - 12:08pm

That is all.

That is all.

J.P. Cubish · Dec 1, 2014 - 12:11pm

Throught that 1204 resistance!

Gold market is giving me mood swings.

Edit: Not really thru, oh well

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