SWISS GOLD INITIATIVE FAILS

250
Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 12:56pm

In no surprise to Turdville, the SGI went down in flames today by a margin of 77-23.

We did what we could, but in an age where economic education is lacking, fear sells and greed trumps all, the only surprise is the margin of defeat. The latest polls had indicated a minimum backing of 37% for the initiative. If the results are to be believed and trusted, then we must accept that fully 1/3 of those who had been backers changed their minds in the last hours. Clearly, the Swiss are no smarter and no more "independent" than anyone else in Europe or the United States. Instead, we all remain slaves to the debt currency, central banking system.

What effect this may have on paper price in the days ahead is hard to predict. Those expecting a continued selloff may get one, at least in the short term as all "commodities" are dragged lower with crude oil. I take issue, though, with those expecting some new wave of selling based upon this result. If you were truly wired in and trading paper metal derivatives, the "NO" vote on SGI is absolutely no surprise.

Additionally, some now expect GOFO rates to "normalize". I doubt it. Again, the powers that determine these rates will not be surprised at all by the result AND GOFO rates are (allegedly) a real time indicator of physical tightness. They are NOT a projection of future tightness based upon some kind of renewed Swiss demand.

Anyway, I'm sure we'll discuss this more again tomorrow and in the week ahead. For now, Turd has greater concerns. The University of Nebraska has FINALLY fired it's meathead embarrassment of a football coach so, regardless of the SGI outcome, today is a great and happy day at TurdFork.

Enjoy what's left of your Sunday. Trading resumes at 6:00 pm New York time.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  250 Comments

Swineflogger
Nov 30, 2014 - 8:45pm

Random Scatter

Youngest daughter who coaches volleyball asked for ideas about motivational quotes. I was tripping thru the dandelions and came across an oldie from Martina N of tennis fame. Whoever said "it doesn't matter if you won or lost" probably lost. . . . .

SS121
Nov 30, 2014 - 8:45pm

Silver update

Video unavailable
woodchuk
Nov 30, 2014 - 8:50pm

Motive

It seems to me that Russia is behind the demolishing of the crude and pm prices. Recall that in the '80s it was the west who collapsed the oil and pm prices effectively bankrupting Russia. this is economic war and Putin is just returning the favor as this current crashing of oil and pms prices has a much greater economic impact on the US economy. Who is selling their oil in currencies other than the US dollar and who has purchasing as much pm as they can (includes all Brics countries). Last week a Russian official mentioned that russia can live with a $60 oil for quite some time but the Us cannot as per the reasons mentioned earlier on this thread. Russians don't forget easily and they definitely have MOTIVE

unwired
Nov 30, 2014 - 8:50pm

Fitzwilson

From over at KWN

"Late in the trading on Friday, the derivatives were unleashed against the precious metals and the mining shares on cue. While Friday is traditionally a day for the central planners to attack, there were additional motivations behind the attack. The Swiss referendum was held today, and perhaps the decline of Friday was another attempt to frighten Swiss voters into saying “No”. Given the overwhelming rejection of the referendum, the propaganda campaign was clearly effective. Apparently, the Swiss “firewall” was simply a memory of days gone past. Now it’s “All aboard” the Keynesian Express".

unwired
Nov 30, 2014 - 8:56pm
Texas Sandman
Nov 30, 2014 - 8:57pm

GOFO

should be interesting tomorrow. how long until they hide it from us?

DeGraives
Nov 30, 2014 - 8:57pm

Grantland Rice

"For when the One Great Scorer comes

To mark against your name,

He writes – not that you won or lost –

But how you played the Game."

(from the poem "Alumnus Football") Really far far beyond the cortical capacity of Martina Navat!

J.P. Cubish
Nov 30, 2014 - 8:57pm

Give me $8 Silver

drop bitch

procog
Nov 30, 2014 - 9:00pm

@Outback, It's not over 'till it's over. Hang in There.

Turd and the most of the rest of us had no clue how embedded and thorough these criminals are. And Craig never told us to when or how to invest/trade - just what he thought and did for himself. Since stopping my trading in Oct 2008 and sitting on metal, I am astounded, and poorer, because of the realities of the "system." Few are aware. It will end, but no one knows when, even the instigators. But it will end. In the mean time do something else to create cashflow and live your life. It is time for me to "recreate" myself because I can not wait much further. Oh well, such is life. Similar to getting a divorce and starting over again. And the beat goes on (no pun intended). There exists a gigantic dream-land out there that most of us have already dealt with. It is time to join the fantasy, for a while, and live a life of some reward. At least when you wake up one morning and all hell has broken loose, you'll say "Ah, so this is how it's happening." Focus and procedural cognizance works. Cutting out the sauce helps. I regretfully and purposely have cut way back on my brewskis.

boomer sooner
Nov 30, 2014 - 9:02pm

Plenty of fiat, NOT!

https://online.wsj.com/articles/holiday-weekend-retail-sales-sink-11-141...

Comments section is almost comical.

Visited LCS 2x last week and hit the pawn shop yesterday (1 oz AU with Switzerland on it no less, for spot), premium just came a day late. May have to make a stop when we retest todays low this week.

unwired
Nov 30, 2014 - 9:08pm

At this rate... GOFO

Could easily be < -1.0 or even -2.0 before they stop publishing it.

Its certainly become irrelevant as a clue to where future price ought to head based on the physical market.

Our Keynesian masters have canceled out the fundamentals in just about everything while they subject us to what Rob Kirby calls a derivative price control grid.

What and absolute cluster f#%6

Texas Sandman
Nov 30, 2014 - 9:10pm

Any bets...

on timing for the start of the definitive FUBM?

J.P. Cubish
Nov 30, 2014 - 9:16pm

The Bastard

I wanna be the bastard buying silver at 14.50. The Bastard/

Fred Hayek
Nov 30, 2014 - 9:19pm

An interesting article advising buying some gold

See the article at the link below. Porter Stansbury(sp?) says that the current structure of the system is crazy. He goes on to say that a divergence between emerging market debt and 10 year U.S. treasuries is one of the red flags of incipient systemic collapse for which he's watched. He says it's starting to happen now.

https://wolfstreet.com/2014/11/30/ive-been-thinking-about-how-the-current-madness-will-end/

infometron
Nov 30, 2014 - 9:20pm

Re: Any bets...

Does anyone know when the last day for taking tax losses this year is? That day would be my best bet, Texas Sandman.

Watching tomorrow for more capitulation selling. Lots more miners likely to go no bid soon, just as Rick Rule has predicted.

boomer sooner
Nov 30, 2014 - 9:44pm

Swiss vote

I find it somewhat coincidental that both passed with relatively the same percentage, 74 & 77%. Especially taking into account the first quote below. "They reflect a growing public view that Switzerland is under siege from foreign workers eroding its Alpine culture and from trading partners who have insisted in recent years that the Swiss dismantle their business model based on banking secrecy." Not much of a growing public view with 26% voting for proposal. "A separate proposal to cut annual immigration by three-quarters from current levels, put forward by environmentalist group Ecopop, was rejected by 74 percent of voters, SRF said." The "Save our Swiss gold" initiative, proposed by the right-wing Swiss People's Party out of concern the central bank has sold too much of its gold in the past, was rejected by 77 percent of voters, said Swiss broadcaster SRF. https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKKCN0JE0D520141130

GoOto123
Nov 30, 2014 - 9:54pm

Truck

Can someone lend me a truck? I might need it tomorrow at the LCS.

SamSchlepps
Nov 30, 2014 - 10:08pm

Economic Stats that are

Economic Stats that are turning the wrong way have been disappearing from this site - this is a new one that wasn't there last week and just reeks of trying to sell something that isn't - seems like a bottom in this world of everything reverse to what you think.

From https://www.forexfactory.com/

silverflower
Nov 30, 2014 - 10:10pm

Just checked my "liquid assets"

Good enough to grab another 125 Ounces. Will get me some of these Wildlife birds, look here:

https://shop.degussa-goldhandel.de/1-oz-canadian-birds-of-prey-series-we...

Time is on our Turdites side, that's for sure.

Outback Havenstein
Nov 30, 2014 - 10:15pm

Sell nothing LEFT

What's to sell? NOTHING. Penny's on the dollar.

looking for a shovel to bury. Maybe worth mining

in a hundred years for another generation.

Texas Sandman
Nov 30, 2014 - 10:15pm

Providentmetals

Looks like they are completely sold out of silver eagles period. With the low premiums, that's not surprising at all.

How are the others holding up?

Addendum:
Add silver maples as well.

Addendum#2:

Silver.com says its still in stock on ASEs, but you'll pay $3 over spot. And shopping around, that's about the best you can do right now. Effectively the drop in spot has been more than negated by the rise in premiums as a result of losing Provident.

Texas Sandman
Nov 30, 2014 - 10:17pm

Soon we'll have a $0 spot price...

with a premium of $20/oz.

the genius of the free market... invisible hand and all...

matt_
Nov 30, 2014 - 10:20pm

Shortages in retail silver currently?

I just went shopping online to beat the cyber Monday rush. Never seen shortages like right now.

Provident: completely out of BU Silver Eagles in all dates and all quantities, sold out of all generic 1 oz bars, and also completely sold out of the popular generic 1 oz Buffalo rounds, and a number of other popular items.

Texas Precious Metals: completely sold out of generic 10 oz and 100 oz bars, Maple Leafs, and Philharmonics. They still have 1 oz American Eagles, but the cash price is 22% over the current spot price.

JM Bullion and APMEX still appear well stocked, at least from their web sites. Who knows given the holiday weekend. There must be some serious retail buying going on right now.

Mickey
Nov 30, 2014 - 10:25pm

think 1920's Germany

the govt "misled" regularly until hyperinflation set in -the stock market went up significantly--until it crashed 97% when the German mark crashed in Nov 1923.

Gold and silver advanced huge and stayed there.

I believe we are on same path.


Nov 30, 2014 - 10:30pm

I am speechless

I thought we would be making a purchase right now, but something in me is being cautious. If I wait, there may not be any available for a while. But given the track record of of the enemy... it may yet go lower and stabilize over the next week. Deflation is the game.

matt_
Nov 30, 2014 - 10:46pm

I'm with you Dr. J, but I placed an order anyhow

I feel leery about buying when everyone is buying. It certainly appears that the retail sellers are getting swamped right now. I don't want to be rushed into a crowd of panic buying, However, I just decided to order 60 oz of American Eagles from a dealer I know only advertises what is in stock and ships very quickly. Even with the higher premium, the price is quite low. Some of these coins are gifts for family members, so I don't want to wait much longer.


Nov 30, 2014 - 10:52pm

Please understand

NOT trying to be pushy. Just a reminder. However, if all other outlets are out of silver, I'm confident that Scottsdale will sell you all of the TFMR rounds that you'd like at $1.99 over spot.


Nov 30, 2014 - 11:06pm

More commentary

Again, I can't emphasize strongly enough...Though some of this was related to the defeat of the SGI, the margin of defeat suggests that it had to be mostly "priced in" by late last week.

Instead, news of that $650MM hedge fund moving into liquidation is THE BIG NEWS of the night. Though not in so many words, this is what I was warning about in yesterday's podcast. The crude oil market...the most important and largest commodity market in the world...is down 40% in less than 4 months and 10% in just the past week. There is simply NO WAY that, in today's world, the unforeseen consequences of this won't soon be playing out.

Those panic-selling tonight were likely trying to get out ahead of everyone else that might soon be rushing for the exits in a potential "liquidation event". This has the potential to be VERY UGLY, everyone. However, let's watch $1135-$1145 gold. This is the area where GOFO exploded three weeks ago, which led me to conclude that there was very likely extreme physical delivery stress there. I can't imagine that a whole bunch of new, readily-deliverable physical has suddenly appeared so let's see if the same area holds again tomorrow and this week.

infometron
Nov 30, 2014 - 11:07pm

Ha ha!

Buying when 'everyone' else is buying as prices hit new lows!

That is hilarious! What a topsy-turvy world!

Black Friday extended for phyzz :-))

Celebrate (1975) - Three Dog Night

Edit: I'm going to pick me up some dormant miners with Price/Book <1 and cash position greater than current market capitalization going no bid at $.005 / share! There are lots of people out there who unfortunately have incurred enormous losses on mining stocks that quite sadly, or in fits of anger, will be liquidating them at any price just to take the tax loss this year. Tomorrow will be a blood bath, there will be blood in the streets... hmmm, what to do, fish or cut bait?

P.S. please forgive my lack of gravitas, I'm just bracing myself, gulp!

Dark Horse TF
Nov 30, 2014 - 11:08pm

@Turd re Scottsdale TFMR rounds

Hi Turd,

I live in Australia.

The premium above spot for silver is $4 and stocks are very low.

Do you know if Scottsdale will send to Sydney Australia and what the cost of freight (+ insurance) is?

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