Why is it taking so long?

Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - 1:26pm

Why is it taking so long? No, not the turkey cooking in the oven, but the collapse of the economy. Perhaps it is the smell of turkey that gets my brain thinking, as it did at our 1st thanksgiving dinner last Saturday when I wrote about canaries. Divorce is a bitch! So as we await our 2nd dinner, my fingers started typing...

When the subprime mortgage climaxed with the Lehman crash as I was learning how to trade, I was ignorant, thinking that politics still mattered, worried about how I would retire, wondering how to trade the markets, which I no longer trusted to be bullish. (Looks like I picked the wrong year to learn how to trade.) I did not understand QE as it came out and especially did not see metals as a safe haven. Once I noticed that metals prices were rising, I simply bought some to get in on the bullishness and make some fiat. The rest is history and somewhere along the way, I became persuaded that our markets were irreparable, held together with coordinated central bank intervention and would eventually collapse.

Many of you here were instrumental in my education, as well as many who no longer frequent the site.

So I have been sitting here this morning racking my brain (and procrastinating grading essays) trying to recall movie where the final fight scene take place in a location that is falling apart as they fight, causing the combatants to actually cooperate in holding the setting together as they try to destroy one another. That appears to be the reality of our current financial system falling apart underneath us as each country grapples for gold, devalues currencies, sets up sanctions, cuts deals with oil producers to hurt others. But all the while, they loan each other funds through overnight discount windows, purchase bonds via proxies, take turns pumping fiat into the system, collude to keep stocks high and metals low, and let a cabal of mass media oligarchs send out their town criers and lie to the world population, repetitively, that “All is well!”

The West is grappling with the East for control of the world. But the cannot let the world crumble while they fight. The CBs are cooperating at some level to hold it together while they grapple for ascendency. I argue that it’s inevitable that the East will overcome, that the West is desperately trying to hang on while the patient Chinese continue to make subtle strategic moves. But China and her allies don’t want to inherit financial control of a world full of wrecked economies.

At some point, the West will cave in, accept their inevitable defeat, declare loyalty to the East and work to establish a stable system.

Perhaps the musical chairs of national gold holdings may bring a sudden end—not to mention war in Ukraine, ramifications of oil prices, and probably a dozen other threats to economic stability. And now the opposition leader of France is calling for return of their gold--they hold 2835 tonnes in various locations. Wow! 20x what the Netherlands just had repatriated. 

But nobody wants the system to collapse and the CBs and Media have much power to keep it alive as they try to reconstruct it.

Which metaphor is most accurate? A collapsing stage on which the antagonists fight? Musical chairs of gold ownership? Or the Pirates of the Caribbean maelstrom that was sucking down the losers as they fired rounds at one another? I am certain the metaphor is NOT a sunny road into the future where “hope” motivates us to achieve our liberal-socialist dreams of equality, prosperity, and an easy retirement.

Perhaps we will not see a collapse after all. Perhaps they will be successful in keeping economic activity intact as the power shifts. Well, if these guys have any say in the matter, whatever turmoil we go through will be under the thumb of whichever government is in power in each nation. Yeah, that sunny road seems to be blocked.

ONe more thing...

Since Craig is probably scrubbing bathroom fixtures and readying his home for the onslaught of relatives for the weekend, so why not give him a break. But we do require our daily reading material. Have you written an Epic Post in the past couple of years? Have you read one that you wanted to give a hundred hat tips? Well, somebody posted a link to a post by StevenBHorse the other day that I enjoyed reading immensely. And I had NOT seen it before.

I bet there are more epic posts we have not all seen, or need to re-read.

Send me a PM or post a comment here with a link to an epic post from the past that we would all be well served to re-read or read for the first time. Yes, you can send me your own comments—no shame in recognizing when you have produced a work of genius. What? 50+ hat tips to qualify? I’ll reprint the best ones in a Main street article by Saturday morning (links to all others as well) so we have something thoughtful to read and discuss over the weekend as we come out of our tryptophan induced stupors, and so Craig can have the weekend off. 

About the Author


AUandAGbull · Nov 27, 2014 - 1:54pm


To say Happy Thanksgiving :-)

Kismet · Nov 27, 2014 - 2:20pm

Could be the 2nd

To wish a Happy Thanksgiving to everyone in Turdville.

Owtovit · Nov 27, 2014 - 2:34pm


In my best Irish gypsy accent.....

Marchas45 · Nov 27, 2014 - 3:37pm

Patience Grasshopper

It is time to Stack and Prepare, Stack and Prepare, forget about the rest of the shit as we have no control over it. O! Happy Thanksgiving by the way. laugh Great idea Doc.

twippers · Nov 27, 2014 - 3:49pm

Toughest Part

I'd have to say the hardest part about believing that the world is in horrible economic shape and that trouble is definitely brewing is that it's a lonely place to be. Many around me don't think or feel the same way. There are few to talk to, few to connect with, etc. and when I do find someone I want to throw my arms around them in thrill knowing I'm not alone. This site is a haven for communication with the like-minded and I am thankful it's here.

Owtovit · Nov 27, 2014 - 4:31pm

It's 8pm here in London......beer o clock

Dr J, Really like your post...I think we all feel frustration and non-plussedness (if that is a word) at the ongoing blue pill shenanigans in this world. I am here at my local pub in south west London, it's 9pm local time and I am quite a few pints in..5,6,7,8 WDTFIK or care....I see they have makers mark on the top shelf....but I digress, prick of a day at work that's my excuse. I saw the writing on the wall a couple of years before you, mid 2006, when I got my first gold then a year later with silver...only paper promises via bullionvault and goldmoney....took me another couple of years to actually get the phys in me hot hands, no little thanks to the TFMetals community and others (big up Turd) Initially it was a cheap ride to prosperity but I soon came to the conclusion I was in it for the long run(once I got the phys) and I mean lots of years for the long run........ I got a youngun...she is 4, me and the soon to be ex-wifey let her go through our wallets and purses each day so she could put our fiat coins into her piggy bank, when wifey left me I took 3 years of fiat coins (£800 ish) and converted it to gold and silver phys eagles for our kid. Not that a 4yo knows what they are but she will one day... Now ex-wifey to be and me are doing a college fund for our kid (now they live not too far from Fergusson! And I am here inLondon) wifey is doing a paper fund.......(keeps mouth shut and bite tongue) I am doing a hardassetsalliance phys fund I can deliver at anytime! (FACTA reporting not required thank f"ck!) so it will be interesting to see which of us wins out in the long run...MOI? I certainly hope so and I believe so.....who am I to question 5000+ years of history....or anyone else for that matter! Bwankers! Whether you believe in the wave cycle of 500 years between east and west, or Kondratief all I have come to know is that phys will win the day and I am glad I have it, be it under water or in profit, as they say better years early than a day late! I have family that lived through the Weimar Republic, they were grateful they had silver kettles, cups and cutlery..STACK ON! Thanks for yet again another great post DrJ, always a great read

sengfarmer · Nov 27, 2014 - 4:38pm


It's never lonely in the corner of truth.

twippers sengfarmer · Nov 27, 2014 - 4:49pm


Well said. I'm slowly learning that. It's really a place of comfort. Now if only the truth was revealed and gold and silver started their upward marches, I think I'd be much happier.

silver66 · Nov 27, 2014 - 5:39pm

views on the fat finger in gold 2 days ago

I had to do some soul searching when the data feeds showed gold up 21% in a couple of hours.

My first thought was "Fu#k, I was going to hit the coin shop today and didn't" my second thought was "I can run up the credit cards big time, 4% premium won't matter"

I did not run up the credit cards and I am still meaning to hit the LCS for the week. What these reactions told me was even though I have stacked hard for 5 years I am not at my threshold yet. 

If this had happened and I had thought, "well this will be interesting' then I would surmise that I am at the right amount for me

good gut check


Fatso · Nov 27, 2014 - 5:53pm

Wife melts down last night

Being uneducated about real money, I saw the contradictions in real life and was motivated to protect our savings by moving into silver. Sold our house and bought silver ETFs mostly at about 30$ then as the price dropped, bought about 10K ounces of physical (thanks turd). So here we sit with a 16$ handle and my wife crying says that we are wiped out. Lovely as she is she does not want to learn anything about the coming failure of our monetary system. I try to discuss fundamentals but she is lost in her media learnings from 35 years ago. The only reason that she agreed to this investment course is that I am rarely wrong in my strategies. Now she doubts me. I believe many members on this site have similar stories. Our waiting time is getting shorter.

AlienEyes · Nov 27, 2014 - 8:14pm

Come on Fatso (Bust-a-move !)

Indeed, but we will all be heroes when the cow pile hits the propeller blade. angel

I've been through a couple of the sudden run-ups like we are hoping for. I can tell you one thing....sell into strength and don't be greedy. These events are never long lived and when the hammer falls, the party is over. That's when it's time to go short and pick up another bundle.

TomMack · Nov 27, 2014 - 10:34pm


situation here is a little different . still under water big time on the house. etfs off 25 to 40% but and it is a big BUT i have some shiny in pocket and still making fiat keeping the creditors at bay. I have always said the hard part will be guarding/keeping your stack. i think the sub $70 crude will help us avg guys shrink our expenses AND will reshuffle house of cards of The Powers That Be and that will create different winners and losers which I believe will be good our precious metals.

interesting times

cyclemadman · Nov 27, 2014 - 11:45pm

Waitin' fer the Shootin' to Start

I cashed in the retirement accounts and bought precious metals years ago after I saw how GM got bailed out and the rule of law was so blatantly thrown out the window. Things like MF Global etc. have just confirmed my decision was the right one. I've been sitting on my stack ever since. Adding a little to it now and then as I get some dry powder.

I figured this thing would have collapsed years ago.

· Nov 28, 2014 - 12:32am

Epic posts


Just made a LONG list of Pining's best illustrations, and of course lost it. The hubris, the arrogance, the idiocy of not having pasted it to a text editor before hitting save...

Well, here's a shorter version:

Turd the Seer and Jack:




The First Poem:


Hoarders Camp 17:


The Legend That Is Turd Ferguson


TFMR silver rounds:


Faces of TF


How the Bernank Stole Christmas - a Turdville Tale


Piece de resistance -- Jamie & Ben in the tunnels under NYC:


The thing is, his text is even better than his pictures -- but it's too hard to choose just one.


After picking on Pining so much, here is one of my own:


4 oz · Nov 28, 2014 - 2:00am

The old line goes

The old line goes, "Why is divorce so damned expensive?"

"Because it's worth it!"

ivars · Nov 28, 2014 - 9:49am

Gold has hit some resistance

Gold has hit some resistance again..more downside expected.

Safety Dan · Nov 28, 2014 - 9:57am

This Should Hurry Things Up Dr J

Gold Rush: Swiss, French call to bring home GOLD, And Dutch are asking for their 122 tons stored in the NYC. Shockwave COMING November 30

The financial crisis in Europe is prompting some nations to repatriate their gold reserves to national vaults. The Netherlands has moved $5 billion worth of gold from New York, and some are calling for similar action from France, Switzerland, and Germany.

An unmatched pace of money printing by major central banks has boosted concerns in European countries over the safety of their gold reserves abroad.

The Dutch central bank – De Nederlandsche […]

· Nov 28, 2014 - 10:49am

Safety Dan

We live in tantalizing times.

Unprecedented central bank printing

Increasing repatriation of gold

Falling gold prices

What a gift for stackers!

pforth · Nov 28, 2014 - 11:06am

I hate this but...

Here is my prediction for the weekend (and so far it looks like I nailed the downtrend just as it started): https://chartchatter.com/chart/SILVER/pforth/408

ArtL · Nov 28, 2014 - 12:05pm

pre-SGI beatdown in progress

Watching with mild amusement, wondering if the price can be even lower after the NO vote? In an vote like this with lots riding on it, the Bankers will not take anything but a rejection of the SGI and will do whatever they can to insure the vote is in their favor. Just imagine their surprise when the Swiss vote yes!

Gold Dog · Nov 28, 2014 - 12:12pm

Epic Repetition <--Drival??

Hi Everybody Old AND New! Please excuse my absence, I have been quite busy since retirement---Every day's a Saturday!

Wealth creation formula;

RM + E = W

RM= Raw materials

E= Energy

You don't need both, one or the other will do, more on this.

W= Wealth

As an Economist by training, (one who finds something that works in theory and then searches for a real life example), the above is the summation of years of education and decades of navel gazing on the subject.

Take raw materials and add energy---lift oil, dig a mine, plow a field or just own raw materials and sell them to someone who wants to add energy.


Write a book, be a mime, lecture, panhandle, trade Cotton Futures----add energy and the value goes up.

Having been for the most part absent for the last year I am in NO position to really comment on the threads that have been written.

Those of you that know me realize that this will in NO way stop me from climbing up on my ladder so the folks in the back can not only hear me but can gaze upon my wizened features!

It seems to me that the lettered Dr. J is bemoaning a good thing, the failure of the Western Economies to collapse. This place has long been a forum that rips on those poor fools that suffer from normalcy bias. Have some of us swung too far the other way and are suffering from collapse bias?

I cannot speak for our foreign members. (I have been to many of their countries and their newspapers are so full of typos that many of them are indecipherable, are monkeys doing the typesetting in hopes of writing new Shakespeare?) But I sure can speak for God's favorite country, Murica!

While the place is being run by Ten Year Old Psychos just now, our potential upside is almost immeasurable. We have raw materials up the wazoo and the will to use them as soon as the TYOPs get out of the way, which judging by the level of overall pissedoffness (<-new word!), that I see from almost everybody will be in the next handful of years.

The Dogs are in the process of changing our resident status from The People's Republic of Illinois to America's Pecker, (some older atlas's refer to it as "Florida"), and, as such, have met many new and wonderful people.

The new pad seems just fine to me but Mrs. Dog informs me that there are over one-thousand shades of white and an equal number of creams and various other accent colors and the current colors would outrage a blind man. My new friends include but are not limited to painters, electricians, exterminators, gate guards, many people in the bedding and furniture trade, people loafing on various couches and mattresses- mostly "chauffeurs" like me- and an assortment of people who tell me that the entire stereo and cable system needs to be redone at vast expense. To a man, or cute girl gas jockey at the marina, they are all screaming to change Murica back to how it was fifteen years ago. Methinks they really mean fifty with some exceptions, the point being that the general stupid voters are waking up. Sleeping tiger, prepare to be amazed.

Not wanting to be Del Griffith I know it would be nice to have a point or two.

1- I own PM's as insurance. I have a lot of insurance on many things and I don't wish to need it, especially that Life stuff. That said, I will quote the "Sage of Main Street", me, and say that nothing would please me more than to see gold with a 2 handle and silver at 3 bucks. It would mean that we have pulled back from the precipice and avoided unfathomable human misery.

B- As many of us know, equity markets rally in front of inflation, Zimbabwe for instance, so we may be in for some 70's style Jimma Carter inflation as interest rates are allowed to normalize and the apparent "technical inflation" beats the deflation that appears to have stabilized in the shadow banking system.

Third- I personally agree with "The Sage" that we will have various forms of default to get our collective asses out of the sling. That Dog guy is pretty well off and I see no real reason to give him and his Social Security or Medicare, screw him! Same with the unfunded liabilities "owed" to public sector unions. Memorize these three words for future use. Ready? "WE AIN'T PAYING!". We are starting to see this sort of thing already in Detroit and various cities in Cali. Benefit levels are being reset as a result of municipal bankruptcy, let's keep the ball rolling in this area. We ain't paying.

In summation I quote John Prine, "Quit wishing for bad luck and knocking on wood.".

Your friend,


braincramps · Nov 28, 2014 - 8:37pm

Thank you

I'm relatively new, but have thoroughly enjoyed reading the different angles of attack and attitudes that permeate this group. I woke up in 2010 after losing some money in a penny stock that was recommenced to me and wanted to know how the market thingy worked. I started playing futures and lost some more $, so then I decided to automated my trading so emotion was taken out, but lost some more fiat. It finally dawned on me that things were rigged, so I wanted to understand how and why. I landed upon zerohedge and kaboom!; I was no longer a puppy waiting for my eyes to open. The red pill was hard to swallow at first, but I've accepted the inevitable.

As many of you may know/feel, it's hard to have swollowed the red pill when so many beg for the blue and take a daily dose of it via the MSM. A couple of family members and friend or two kind of get it, but others think I'm a bit rocked, so I've stopped talking about it to most folks. It makes it quite lonely and I struggle at times to get out of my collapse bias as Gold Dog stated so well above. I've stacked a good amount of Silver and food/supplies, so I'm ok when the Great Financial Reset happens, but it's so hard not to worry about all the people you know who will be wiped out. The 50+% of the folks who mostly or fully rely on the government teet are totally screwed blue. Knowing this is just painful to live with.

What's the point? I am interested in knowing how other deal with this knowledge? Is there a great discussion that has already taken place that someone can point me? I'd just like to know how others struggle with this and what they have found to ease their minds. I've decided to become more Zen and live in the moment. You can't decide how you will ride out the collapse 24/7 and it not take a toll. I'm trying to live in the now... we'll see how that goes.

Warmest Regards,


Kismet · Nov 29, 2014 - 12:08am

@ ChuckDarwin

Like you, I am aware but frustrated at/with family and friends. I ask them about demographics ... Baby boomers retiring at 10k per day. Then I follow with the question "what will happen to the stock market when they begin to sell stock for retirement money?" Wait for an answer before you continue. If you get "I don't know", then you're dealing with someone who will need a lot of education. I usually write down ZeroHedge & tfmetalsreport for them, as great places to start. I also recommended two books by Wiedemer, Wiedemer, & Spitzer "Aftershock" and "The Aftershock Investor". Both deal with the economy in pretty basic terms. Good luck.

cashonly · Nov 29, 2014 - 8:14am

The clock

For those of us that frequent TF and others we know what is coming. For me it has been 12 years or thereabouts right about the time I went into business realized we were a nation that traded productivity for credit. Since this is about a quarter of my life it does seem to be taking forever. I am more steadfast in by beliefs today more than ever. My silver has lost over half of its FIAT value and I really don't give a flying (fill in the blank here). I don't want that FIAT S@#% as my "STORE OF WEALTH". The end will justify the means.

When we talk to people around us about what we know and get the old "catatonic stare" imagine when the end hits what it will feel like time wise to them. By the time the bad news finally starts emerging, as manipulation schemes die and can no longer cover the reality, the end will seem to be evident and come quickly thereafter. Since they held absolutely no volume of anticipation to it this, the end actually would seem to have come quickly to their perception. That is why we risk a certainty of civil unrest as the awakening comes all at once for the masses who were not only duped but will find out they were also victimized (pensions, 401's, bank accounts, standard of living!).

2 perspectives but only one clock that only ticks a second at a time for each. Stop watching the clock and prep it up!

braincramps Kismet · Nov 29, 2014 - 9:24am

@ Kismet


Thank you for the good ideas and taking the time to voice them.

Much appreciated,


jackstar · Nov 29, 2014 - 11:48pm

We had some friends over

We had some friends over about 2 months ago, one of whom was a gentleman from Liberia. He had 5 family members die from Ebola on the same day last week. He has been working hard here and sending most of his earnings to his extended family back home. Ebola seems to have slipped off the radar screen here, but Liberia is pretty much shut down. Yes, there is a lot of negative stuff going down in our area of interest right now, but we don't have to look far to realize we still have a lot to be thankful for.

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