Why is it taking so long?

Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - 1:26pm

Why is it taking so long? No, not the turkey cooking in the oven, but the collapse of the economy. Perhaps it is the smell of turkey that gets my brain thinking, as it did at our 1st thanksgiving dinner last Saturday when I wrote about canaries. Divorce is a bitch! So as we await our 2nd dinner, my fingers started typing...

When the subprime mortgage climaxed with the Lehman crash as I was learning how to trade, I was ignorant, thinking that politics still mattered, worried about how I would retire, wondering how to trade the markets, which I no longer trusted to be bullish. (Looks like I picked the wrong year to learn how to trade.) I did not understand QE as it came out and especially did not see metals as a safe haven. Once I noticed that metals prices were rising, I simply bought some to get in on the bullishness and make some fiat. The rest is history and somewhere along the way, I became persuaded that our markets were irreparable, held together with coordinated central bank intervention and would eventually collapse.

Many of you here were instrumental in my education, as well as many who no longer frequent the site.

So I have been sitting here this morning racking my brain (and procrastinating grading essays) trying to recall movie where the final fight scene take place in a location that is falling apart as they fight, causing the combatants to actually cooperate in holding the setting together as they try to destroy one another. That appears to be the reality of our current financial system falling apart underneath us as each country grapples for gold, devalues currencies, sets up sanctions, cuts deals with oil producers to hurt others. But all the while, they loan each other funds through overnight discount windows, purchase bonds via proxies, take turns pumping fiat into the system, collude to keep stocks high and metals low, and let a cabal of mass media oligarchs send out their town criers and lie to the world population, repetitively, that “All is well!”

The West is grappling with the East for control of the world. But the cannot let the world crumble while they fight. The CBs are cooperating at some level to hold it together while they grapple for ascendency. I argue that it’s inevitable that the East will overcome, that the West is desperately trying to hang on while the patient Chinese continue to make subtle strategic moves. But China and her allies don’t want to inherit financial control of a world full of wrecked economies.

At some point, the West will cave in, accept their inevitable defeat, declare loyalty to the East and work to establish a stable system.

Perhaps the musical chairs of national gold holdings may bring a sudden end—not to mention war in Ukraine, ramifications of oil prices, and probably a dozen other threats to economic stability. And now the opposition leader of France is calling for return of their gold--they hold 2835 tonnes in various locations. Wow! 20x what the Netherlands just had repatriated.

But nobody wants the system to collapse and the CBs and Media have much power to keep it alive as they try to reconstruct it.

Which metaphor is most accurate? A collapsing stage on which the antagonists fight? Musical chairs of gold ownership? Or the Pirates of the Caribbean maelstrom that was sucking down the losers as they fired rounds at one another? I am certain the metaphor is NOT a sunny road into the future where “hope” motivates us to achieve our liberal-socialist dreams of equality, prosperity, and an easy retirement.

Perhaps we will not see a collapse after all. Perhaps they will be successful in keeping economic activity intact as the power shifts. Well, if these guys have any say in the matter, whatever turmoil we go through will be under the thumb of whichever government is in power in each nation. Yeah, that sunny road seems to be blocked.

ONe more thing...

Since Craig is probably scrubbing bathroom fixtures and readying his home for the onslaught of relatives for the weekend, so why not give him a break. But we do require our daily reading material. Have you written an Epic Post in the past couple of years? Have you read one that you wanted to give a hundred hat tips? Well, somebody posted a link to a post by StevenBHorse the other day that I enjoyed reading immensely. And I had NOT seen it before.

I bet there are more epic posts we have not all seen, or need to re-read.

Send me a PM or post a comment here with a link to an epic post from the past that we would all be well served to re-read or read for the first time. Yes, you can send me your own comments—no shame in recognizing when you have produced a work of genius. What? 50+ hat tips to qualify? I’ll reprint the best ones in a Main street article by Saturday morning (links to all others as well) so we have something thoughtful to read and discuss over the weekend as we come out of our tryptophan induced stupors, and so Craig can have the weekend off.

About the Author


Nov 27, 2014 - 1:54pm


To say Happy Thanksgiving :-)

Nov 27, 2014 - 2:20pm

Could be the 2nd

To wish a Happy Thanksgiving to everyone in Turdville.

Nov 27, 2014 - 2:34pm


In my best Irish gypsy accent.....

Nov 27, 2014 - 3:37pm

Patience Grasshopper

It is time to Stack and Prepare, Stack and Prepare, forget about the rest of the shit as we have no control over it. O! Happy Thanksgiving by the way. Great idea Doc.

Nov 27, 2014 - 3:49pm

Toughest Part

I'd have to say the hardest part about believing that the world is in horrible economic shape and that trouble is definitely brewing is that it's a lonely place to be. Many around me don't think or feel the same way. There are few to talk to, few to connect with, etc. and when I do find someone I want to throw my arms around them in thrill knowing I'm not alone. This site is a haven for communication with the like-minded and I am thankful it's here.

Nov 27, 2014 - 4:31pm

It's 8pm here in London......beer o clock

Dr J, Really like your post...I think we all feel frustration and non-plussedness (if that is a word) at the ongoing blue pill shenanigans in this world. I am here at my local pub in south west London, it's 9pm local time and I am quite a few pints in..5,6,7,8 WDTFIK or care....I see they have makers mark on the top shelf....but I digress, prick of a day at work that's my excuse. I saw the writing on the wall a couple of years before you, mid 2006, when I got my first gold then a year later with silver...only paper promises via bullionvault and goldmoney....took me another couple of years to actually get the phys in me hot hands, no little thanks to the TFMetals community and others (big up Turd) Initially it was a cheap ride to prosperity but I soon came to the conclusion I was in it for the long run(once I got the phys) and I mean lots of years for the long run........ I got a youngun...she is 4, me and the soon to be ex-wifey let her go through our wallets and purses each day so she could put our fiat coins into her piggy bank, when wifey left me I took 3 years of fiat coins (£800 ish) and converted it to gold and silver phys eagles for our kid. Not that a 4yo knows what they are but she will one day... Now ex-wifey to be and me are doing a college fund for our kid (now they live not too far from Fergusson! And I am here inLondon) wifey is doing a paper fund.......(keeps mouth shut and bite tongue) I am doing a hardassetsalliance phys fund I can deliver at anytime! (FACTA reporting not required thank f"ck!) so it will be interesting to see which of us wins out in the long run...MOI? I certainly hope so and I believe so.....who am I to question 5000+ years of history....or anyone else for that matter! Bwankers! Whether you believe in the wave cycle of 500 years between east and west, or Kondratief all I have come to know is that phys will win the day and I am glad I have it, be it under water or in profit, as they say better years early than a day late! I have family that lived through the Weimar Republic, they were grateful they had silver kettles, cups and cutlery..STACK ON! Thanks for yet again another great post DrJ, always a great read

Nov 27, 2014 - 4:38pm


It's never lonely in the corner of truth.

Nov 27, 2014 - 4:49pm


Well said. I'm slowly learning that. It's really a place of comfort. Now if only the truth was revealed and gold and silver started their upward marches, I think I'd be much happier.

Nov 27, 2014 - 5:39pm

views on the fat finger in gold 2 days ago

I had to do some soul searching when the data feeds showed gold up 21% in a couple of hours.

My first thought was "Fu#k, I was going to hit the coin shop today and didn't" my second thought was "I can run up the credit cards big time, 4% premium won't matter"

I did not run up the credit cards and I am still meaning to hit the LCS for the week. What these reactions told me was even though I have stacked hard for 5 years I am not at my threshold yet.

If this had happened and I had thought, "well this will be interesting' then I would surmise that I am at the right amount for me

good gut check


Nov 27, 2014 - 5:53pm

Wife melts down last night

Being uneducated about real money, I saw the contradictions in real life and was motivated to protect our savings by moving into silver. Sold our house and bought silver ETFs mostly at about 30$ then as the price dropped, bought about 10K ounces of physical (thanks turd). So here we sit with a 16$ handle and my wife crying says that we are wiped out. Lovely as she is she does not want to learn anything about the coming failure of our monetary system. I try to discuss fundamentals but she is lost in her media learnings from 35 years ago. The only reason that she agreed to this investment course is that I am rarely wrong in my strategies. Now she doubts me. I believe many members on this site have similar stories. Our waiting time is getting shorter.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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