Gobble, Gobble!

Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 10:55am

An odd week begins with Dec14 option expiry today, Dec14 contract expiry on Wednesday, an American holiday on Thursday, a holiday-shortened trading session on Friday and the Swiss Gold Initiative vote on Sunday. What does this mean? Be ready for all sorts of price volatility.

The good news, though, is that paper gold and silver continue to find buyers. The London GOFO rates continue to deepen as the supply squeeze of readily-deliverable, 400-oz bars continues at these price levels. In fact, GOFO has now been negative each day for the past four weeks and it put it new lows just today! Even the 6-month rate is now significantly negative:

Against this backdrop, Koos reports today that Shanghai delivered another 52 metric tonnes just last week. This brings the YTD total for Shanghai up to 1,761 mts. No dropoff there...just a steady, relentless Chinese demand. Additionally, Koos adds up all Chinese gold imports, mining, official reserves and jewelry base (which hasn't been updated in 19 years) and comes up with a total Chinese gold reserves of 15,496 mts. Hmmm...Something tells me you won't see that number quoted by Reuters or the WGC.

At any rate, Koos concludes this post by stating this:

"I found some interesting things ‘on the ground’ here in Amsterdam regarding the repatriation of Dutch gold from New York by DNB, I think it’s in everybody’s interest I continue writing on that story."

Well, that sounds interesting, doesn't it? I guess we'll stay tuned. Anyway, great work Koos! Read it all here: https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/total-chinese-gold-reserves...

Further good news is that the yen is back in the toilet today but gold is still not following it down. (So far, recall that it IS option expiration day.) This makes Turd happy and provides another day of reinforcing evidence that we are analyzing this correctly.

If we remove the yen candlesticks from the chart above and focus solely upon gold, we see that the 04-1206 level continues to act as stout support. Once again last evening, the high was 04.40. But price is hanging in there with a last of 00.00 so we should really be quite encouraged. Our main goal now is to keep our weekly winning streak going with another green candle this week. Can we do it? I think so but it's likely not going to be easy.

And lo and behold, silver has not (yet) been smashed today! Count me amongst the stunned. As noted last week, simply by moving sideways here, silver is going to finally break out of the brutal down channel that has contained it since mid-July. This is very encouraging but it ain't over yet. Watch this very closely in the hours ahead.

And there is a major OPEC meeting set to begin on Thursday in Vienna. Therefore, expect a volatile week in crude oil and this could/might have an impact in silver, too. As you can see below, the algo linkage of crude and silver has been fraying recently just as the algo gold--yen linkage has broken. Regardless, I'd expect to see fluctuations in crude continue to have at least a tangental impact on silver...so...watch crude closely this week, too. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-24/brent-plunge-60-if-opec-fails-...

Finally, after considering all sorts of positive and negative feedback, I've decided to reopen (for Vault subscribers) the comments pages on all homepage threads. This means:

  1. All Vault subscribers can comment freely on Vault threads.
  2. All Vault subscribers (only) can also comment freely on public threads.
  3. But the renewed use of the forums has been encouraging and exactly what I was hoping for. Please continue to freely share information and discuss TEOTGKE there. The forums offer everyone the opportunity for in-depth and lengthy discussions of the type that simply can't be had on the daily threads.

I'm going to stop now so that I can write up a new public thread which will allow everyone to see how this works. I hope that everyone is pleased with the new arrangement.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 24, 2014 - 10:56am


to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving

Nov 24, 2014 - 11:00am

Lars and Grant


Grant Williams - The Gold price is not the price of Gold

Also, Turd I'm VERY PLEASED WITH THE NEW ARRANGEMENT! I had made a personal decision to no longer visit main street some time ago due to an apparent pandemic of rabies there. I now like walking down mainstreet :D

Great work!

Nov 24, 2014 - 11:02am


IF the Saudi's are indeed targeting US Shale production then my guess is that they will NOT announce a production cut BWTFDIK :-) ?

gold slut
Nov 24, 2014 - 11:08am

New arrangement

So glad to have the vaulters' comments on public threads! The comments were/are 50% of the draw to TFMR and removing any comment from the main page was like emptying the shop window. When something is as good as TFMR, you want to advertise it to the world baby!

Nov 24, 2014 - 11:29am

Top Ten.....


Nov 24, 2014 - 11:32am

I am pleased--

--pleased that I am not trading SLV options or futures options and have to keep an eye on the screen at all times during weeks like this. Simply holding metal is very comforting and allows restful sleep, regardless of what the Comex price is.

But I must admit... It is very tempting, at these prices for silver, and especially if we get the dreaded smash below 15 that some have been predicting, to purchase an actual silver contract and stand for delivery, loading my trading account with enough fiat to pay in full. I suppose the risk is that they push the price down even further then force me to settle for cash when the contract expires. I couldn't afford the paper loss if that happened. And I really don't want the nail-gun salesmen to visit my office, home or bathtub were I to choose to be vocal about pressure to settle in cash and not metal.

Dr. P. Metals
Nov 24, 2014 - 11:40am

RE: Stunned

Yes, i'm stunned also, if they let Ag go now, it will head towards $22 again...I'm not buying this yet. I've been wrong 999 out of 1000 times prior on buying expecting the channel to break. I'd be curious on today's podcast to update charts in particular:

1. USDJPY (itself)

2. JPYAu

3. Bonds vs Au

4. Any update on JPM vault movements.

5. Update on any "reliable" data out of swiss land?

6. Miners MACD/etc...which has burned us in the you know what last time with a false turn!!


Nov 24, 2014 - 11:42am

Great job Turd

Turd, you continue to make this great site even better. Being a newbie to Turdville, I can say this is the best site by far, along with informative posts from interesting folks around the globe. I can only hope to add positive vibs going forward.

Thank you for you're hard work and dedication to this site.

Nov 24, 2014 - 11:47am

SGI poll

Must be using common core math.

Nov 24, 2014 - 11:49am


A Polish foot disease?

I noticed platinum just took a nose dive....probably because I bought some. At least gold and silver are holding their own so far.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
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8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
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7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
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7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
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7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

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