The Propaganda Thickens

Wed, Nov 19, 2014 - 12:00pm

As we approach December contract expiration AND the vote on The Swiss Gold Initiative, you'd better expect more volatility like we had this morning. In fact, anyone with a queasy stomach had better just shut off their computer for the next 10 days.

So here we were, enjoying the morning. The sun was shining and the birds were singing. Then, WHAM!! Whoa, wait a minute, hold on just a second. What the heck happened here?

Notice how the Comex opened at the usual hour and am otherwise sleepy, pre-FOMCminute session was unfolding. Besides the waterfall cascade on the price chart, note the surge in volume. What's the deal?

Analysts and media tell us that this drop is due to the release of a new public opinion poll in Switzerland, showing a drop off in support of passing the SGI. The most recent poll had shown support for SGI ahead by 45-38 with 17% undecided. Today's new poll shows SGI behind 44-39 with 15% undecided. That's quite the flip and it apparently spooked some of the recently added longs into selling.

Or did it? Let me offer a possible alternative. As noted last Friday in reviewing the recent CoT, the Commercial gross long position was at the highest level in months AND AS DOCUMENTED AD NAUSEAM IN THE PAST HERE AT TFMR, we know that The Cartel trading desks absolutely love to "leg out" of positions, especially as we get close to contract expiration.

Could this instead have been a simple BB dump of 5,000 to 10,000 contracts in order to slam price? Hell yes! At 10:48:31, Nanex caught 2,270 gold futures contracts trading in ONE SECOND.

10:48:31 - 2270 Gold futures and 596 Silver futures trade in 1 second $GC_F $SI_F

— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) November 19, 2014

A trade of that size, dumped onto the market, is not intended to achieve the most price efficient fill. It is only done to influence price. And influence it did! See the 1-minute chart below:

So, yes. I'm certain that the new SGI poll had the immediate impact of freaking out some fresh longs. However, the follow on selling is almost certainly a bullion bank trying to jam price lower, perhaps hoping to re-attach gold to the yen and engender even more selling.

As you can see below, the yen continues to be in absolute free-fall. When that Albert Edwards dude first mentioned 120, many folks scoffed, but I doubt that even Mr. Edwards himself thought that the USDJPY would get there this quickly. I have a last of 117.695 and up nearly 3/4 of a percent today. (Or looked at inversely, the yen is down in value vs the dollar by another 0.75% today alone.)

Gold, which had finally moved UP and away from the yen linkage over the past week, has today been slammed back down and in closer alignment. Will this embolden even more selling as spec algos try to fully re-link price? Maybe. As you can see below, a full link would require price to fall toward the $1140 area...the same area where it seems The Banks find it extremely difficult to find physical metal to settle trades. GOFO rates continue to "worsen" with the one-month making a new 13-year low today so it appears that The Banks will have little desire to see price make new lows. We'll see.

So, anyway, I'm not entirely certain of what happens next though I do know that I promised you a very interesting week and it is certainly playing out as such. Additionally, as I mentioned in yesterday's podcast, ALL I CARE ABOUT is a second consecutive weekly close above $1180. How we get there and the volatility in between is of no importance. I just want to see something above $1180 at 5:00 pm on Friday.

Finally, as mentioned yesterday, there won't be an A2A this week and next week we'll have a "holiday weekend" discussion with Jim Willie, instead. One of the things I'll be doing in the meantime is appearing with Kerry Lutz on a special "Liberty Mastermind Webinar" next Tuesday evening. If you'd like to join us, just click this link:

More later,


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 19, 2014 - 12:04pm

And this is fun...

...if you speak French. This SGI "debate" was held a few days ago.

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:09pm


loving the new format turd.

and spending much more time in the forums.

keep up the good work.

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:10pm



Nov 19, 2014 - 12:12pm

FUBM underway

I think we are seeing a nice rebound or FUBM. Where is Blythe anyway?

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:13pm

Big Bang

Is coming...

Do we already see the start right now?

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:14pm

Huge profits..

Some huge profits made the past hour in many of the precious metals stocks....bargain day?

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:15pm

New Rumors Poll Was Miss-Reported


Just heard this on the wire.


Nov 19, 2014 - 12:16pm

that was not a long smash down in silver

and someone forgot to put the lid back on!

16.30 to 15.90 then over 16.50 this is a rough ride for the troops!

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:16pm

Looks like close above $1200

I wonder what the FED minutes have in them that is positive for the pm's?

TF Metals fan
Nov 19, 2014 - 12:18pm

1180 Friday 17.00?

apparently we do not have to wait that long ;-)

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:19pm

What wire

Do you speak of?

link me homey

J Siefert
Nov 19, 2014 - 12:21pm

Swiss Gold Initiative

Sent in our 2 postal 'yes' votes for the Swiss Gold Initiative yesterday.

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:21pm

Re: What wire

Trade the News. It's a subscription service for day-traders and HFT mine.

They are flip-flopping over this.

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:28pm


Again, though, I'd continue to suggest that physical tightness continues to inhibit any and all attempts to slam paper price back down.

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:29pm


This is fun !


hang on tight

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:33pm


Nov 19, 2014 - 12:37pm

Their attempt to clear the market for the Fellen, not working

Wish it wasn't so early I'd get a cold one watching this market action. The evil bastards just can't do it at will now it seems. It will be interesting to find out how many contracts were dumped to smash it down $20 bucks this morning.

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:41pm

Holly Moly

Maybe my Gut Feeling was a day off. LMAO This is starting to get exciting but I still need it back up in the 20's before I really start getting excited. Keep Stacking

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:51pm

Ok, I'll bite

do the acronyms mean anything?

FUTF: This is a formation on the intraday silver chart where silver is brutally raided, much to the chagrin of The Turd.

FUBM: This formation follows the painting of the FUTF. When buyers rush back into silver and take it higher than it was pre-raid, the resulting chart formation is called an FUBM.

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:57pm


The Euro/CHF cross went wild and coincides with the Gold moves.

We have to consider that this may have been a defense of the peg as much as a gold raid.

The slamdown certainly must have stopped out some of the specs on the Euro short in Swissie terms...

The pop sent it to 1.2025 and I have a last of 1.2010 which is back to pressuring the peg.

Late Update:

The slamdown started in Gold and then began to infect the peg, however the pressure rebuilt against the peg must sooner than any recovery in Gold. So the pop up and down in currencies was all in between the drop and the pop in Gold... Not very definitive without thinking this through further.

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:58pm

Not so much anymore

Just leftovers of a bygone era.

Blythe is long gone and the only entities left trading paper PMs are a handful of hedgy algos.

It's fun, though, that FUBM made the Urban Dictionary:

Nov 19, 2014 - 12:59pm


Long-time Turdites will undoubtedly recognize todays price action as the fabled "Prison Shank" formation, whereby price controllers deliberately run every trailing stop to clear-out all fresh longs from the market, then immediately buy back all those contracts... like a boss!

The Prison Shank formation looks like this on the charts:

It looks like this to market participants:

Thus "price discovery" occurs in our freely and fairly traded metals "markets".

ProTip: Don't drop the soap.

Pining 4 the Fjords
Nov 19, 2014 - 12:59pm


That's terrific. You truly are A Master!

Nov 19, 2014 - 1:02pm

Another look at silver

Pretty impressive turnaround.

gold slut
Nov 19, 2014 - 1:02pm


Ahhhh, now it becomes clear. The SGI vote includes postal votes! There is the weak spot. So that is how it will become a 'no' vote.

Still, it was fun while it lasted. TPTB really LOVE those postal votes.

Nov 19, 2014 - 1:04pm


I think it's interesting that we have a perfect FUBM on Gold, but the slippage on Silver was to the upside as the FUBM has taken it 15 cents higher than where the manipulation began... Must have been some shorts added low that were squeezed out high and then some.

Nov 19, 2014 - 1:05pm


Why do I feel that if the SGI fails, gold price will be beaten down unmercifully, and if it passes, they will somehow still use it to beat down gold?

Nov 19, 2014 - 1:09pm

And the gold---yen link

And the gold---yen link widens back out. Now near $60...if you choose to look at it that way....

Nov 19, 2014 - 1:14pm

Turd, do you have a younger cousin in Germany...?

I was looking for more details on the poll coverage on the Swiss gold referendum, and stumbled across this guy:

If you added a pair of shades and a yellow hat, even longtime Turdites would be hard pressed to say it isn't Turd. The similarity just keeps getting more and more eerie:

DISCLAIMER: I don't know Mr. Schulte, or anything about him aside from the pictures above. If anyone is interested, his website is: He also has a piece on the Swiss gold initiative here:

Translated version here: 'Switzerland rebelled against the flood of paper money'

An English-language articles sourced from Reuters in the Daily Mail (blech) says: 38% for, 47% against, 15% undecided.

There is a pretty good overview of different Swiss perspectives in this article (in the decidedly contrarian)

Autotranslation here:

"(1) in financial matters eyes: gold stands for security and wealth. There is a fear of debt after the experience of the financial crisis. Rather, this Group selects Yes (see also the last SRF survey). Many of this group have understood that gold protects against this debt.

(2) reasonably target in financial matters and the so-called "financial experts". This group is with the Swiss National Bank on a line when it comes to the Euromindestkurs. It is eventually "to secure jobs in the Switzerland". Many have Swiss shares that a yes vote would lose value. This Working Party shall elect No more.

(3) the "Gold bugs": this group thinks that the expanded the monetary base of the central banks earlier or later the great global credit and price inflation and the collapse of money systems will take place. Bugs often think gold, the euro, like the dollar is losing its value since 1970, and that only gold will be remembered. With the binding to the euro, the Swiss franc also among those fiat currencies. This Group selects Yes. The SNB President Thomas wasn't one of Jordan in 1999 although the gold bugs, but he explained that the Switzerland should not bind to the euro because sooner or later the same inflation arises and the Switzerland (link to the paper will lose their advantage of low interest rates and financing costs).

(4) monetarists and the followers of the Austrian school which are not gold bugs, specify that the SNB can no longer fulfil its mandate to prevent credit bubbles by the minimum price. The SNB injured explicitly its monetary mandate in this respect that "Don't take too long too low interest rates" should remain, because it (according to the mandate and also in reality) comes to asset bubbles. The SNB replies this strong accusation with the countercyclical capital bufferthat should fight the real-estate bubble."

Nov 19, 2014 - 1:16pm

Well, I am 62.5% German

Maybe a long lost cousin?


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