Turd on with The Doc

Thu, Nov 6, 2014 - 9:52am

Late yesterday, Turd, Doc, and Eric Dubin met at the Silver Doctors site to discuss the current events in the metals. This includes a very interesting, direct report from The Doc on the current shortage of ASEs from the US Mint.

Other topics discussed include:

  • The fraying of the paper - physical connection
  • How the present time compares to previous instances of high premiums
  • The prospect of The Mint not resuming production again until 2015, similar to late last year

At any rate, the entire discussion is worthy of a thorough listen but please be sure to note that premiums on ASEs and other silver coins may not be coming back down for a while. Stack accordingly.


The entire interview can be accessed here: https://www.silverdoctors.com/us-mint-caught-totally-off-guard-by-epic-s...

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 6, 2014 - 9:54am


great interview turd.

Age Zilverstra
Nov 6, 2014 - 9:57am


I could be Canadian, now over to our neighbors at Silver doctors to listen.


Nov 6, 2014 - 10:22am


The first 4 Silver Miners released their Q3 2014 results, and ALL OF THEM stated a loss. Now, some of these companies recorded a net income gain, but I don't go by net income, but rather ADJUSTED INCOME. 

Adjusted income removes items that aren't associated with the DAY to DAY operation of a mine.

The 4 Primary Silver Miners in this group received an average of $19.20 for silver in Q3, and still suffered losses. HOW BAD WOULD IT BE AT $15.50??

There is only 1 Primary Silver Miner that makes money at $15.50 and that is because Taho Resources produces 5.5 million oz of silver a quarter at 600+ grams per ton... which is unheard of.

Lastly, while I realize 70% of silver supply comes from base metal and gold mining, 30% is still a lot of silver from primary silver miners.


Nov 6, 2014 - 10:38am
Nov 6, 2014 - 10:47am

Listening now....

...normally I avoid sites that put an exclamation point at!the!end!of!every!sentence!, but in this case I made an exception. ;-)

@SRS, no surprise there, eh? Perhaps the (temporary) oil dip will help to rebalance P/L statements in Q4 and breathe some life into those miners that are on the edge. Longer term however, no industry can survive when its product is artificially price suppressed.

The base metal miners are really no different from the primary silver producers. They count on a reasonable return on their silver by-product to contribute to the bottom line. While they may be more insulated than the primaries from Ag price volatility, they're feeling the pinch as well.


Nov 6, 2014 - 10:54am
Nov 6, 2014 - 11:01am



Of course, the lower oil price will lower costs, but I would like to point out the average price of oil in 2009 was $61.50 and so in 2014, Brent is at an average $106.4, with a current price of $82.20. Right now, the current silver price is seeing the same level it was in 2009-2010.

So, I doubt actual costs will fall all that much in Q4 2014. However, we could see a bit of a decline in costs in 2015 if the price of oil remains this low. But, I doubt break-even will fall to $15.50.... maybe $18 give or take at the most.


Safety Dan
Nov 6, 2014 - 11:13am

For those who missed it, gold

For those who missed it, gold miner bullish percent is now at zero and suggests an imminent bounce or bottom for GDX:

Screen Shot 2014-11-05 at 12.54.51

This is the flip side of the equation: gold and miners are capitulating whilst stocks top out. Reversals in both should occur together. I wondered previously whether gold miners would be sold off in a steep stocks sell-off, but the difference this time, say compared to 2008, is that they start from total washout levels, so I see the only way is up.

Charts Update

The exhaustion gap (from Friday) is still in play, and I’m now looking for a gap down day. The current Nasdaq is shown below followed by a typical exhaustion gap pattern: …Continue reading →

Hawkman SRSrocco
Nov 6, 2014 - 11:19am

Fair point SRS


Very valid point. I suppose at this point it will come down to how long the 'underwater' miners can hold out waiting for the price to reach economic conditions to continue doing business. For the primaries without another source of income 'how long' has to be numbered in weeks, if not days. With their stock price suppressed as well, it can't be fun to be a silver miner these days.

Perhaps desperate times will call for desperate measures and more will join First Majestic on the picket line.

Like the small boy who gets pushed around on the playground by the bully one...too...many...times...


Nov 6, 2014 - 11:35am

Great interview Turd

It is good to see you out there regularly on other sites discussing markets.

We of the physical investing community are being relentlessly ridiculed by supposedly knowledgeable people who cannot seem to get their nose from in front of their charts to read and evaluate any discussions of the broader economy and the political and banking decisions that will affect it. 

People who look for the big picture are more likely to find it and and take wise action for the future.

People who focus on the daily ups and downs and lines drawn across their charts may make some fiat with their trading but may find their foundation crumbling. One must get out of the house and examine the ground around it now and then.

So metals are moving down in their Comex-set pricing. And my "portfolio" looks like crap (except that it is shiny and beautiful) when P plug the current price into my spreadsheet. But until I see real job growth, stabilizing markets that do not need QE to stay positive, sensible banking regulations, many criminals strung up, many politicians run out of Washington, and a national movement to wean people off the public breast and earn their own living, but until then I will remain vigilant, cautious and store my labor and profit where I am convinced it will not evaporate. 

You may not want to buy metal now expecting a lower move (and it may not be available much longer), but there are many goods that will preserve your wealth and give you stability if this messed up economic continues on this bumpy, washed-out dead end road.

Nov 6, 2014 - 11:40am

NDX resistance?

Just a level to watch in the NDX

Alonzo Jazzberry
Nov 6, 2014 - 11:51am

Sorry to hear people are ridiculing you, Jerome

When it comes to investing, ridicule is harmful for both parties. Investing is not a political issue, where the point is to determine who is right and who is wrong; in investing all assets are valid and simply represent different balances of risk v. reward. By turning it into an emotional argument and making personal attacks, the end result is that each side is pushed further away from the rational middle. "They" are pushed further away from any exposure to hard assets as the price goes down and they become convinced that they are right and PM bugs are crazy, and the PM bugs get angrier and more convinced that the world is screwed up and that hard assets are the only rational investment.

End result? Everyone's portfolios become less diverse and more risky.

The concept of 'sides' in the investing world is toxic, but unfortunately that's what pays the bills at CNBC and Zero Hedge, so they'll keep spewing the bullsh*t for years to come.

Nov 6, 2014 - 11:55am

Nov 6, 2014 - 12:12pm

As promised...

Why not compile a LCS report.

Please post a brief report here on a forum page each time you stop in a dealer.

If we compile them, I believe we'll have an important indicator of what is really going on among our class of buyers.

With enough posts covering four data points below, regularly, repeatedly, perhaps we can construct a meaningful picture of supplies nd premiums at the retail level.
For both gold and silver...

  1. Are inventories increasing or decreasing?
  2. Premium on minted coins?
  3. Premium on bars & rounds?
  4. Where are you?

I'll copy and paste any LCS reports that get posted on the main pages (starting with yesterday's posts) as I run across them, and I'll try to post graphs and charts on main street as I create them.

Nov 6, 2014 - 12:18pm

Paper vs Physcial Price breaking down

Is there any industrial user or jeweler that can't get their physical silver? Or outside of ASE's, are there any investors who can't get physical coins or bars? It seems the answer is no.

Maybe industrial demand is so weak that there's plenty of silver around for investment. Just a -10% decline for industrial silver (for the year) is another 50-60 million ozs that floods the market.

The paper market will trade higher down the road if inflation comes into the economies of developed nations, so far we face more deflation.

As for as the labor market is concerned, weak employment growth and flat wages is NOT PM bullish, that's all deflationary in nature.

Big money prefers a large pool of labor and weak wages, it means high profit margins and low inflation.

Nov 6, 2014 - 12:25pm

Lawsuit: Chicago Futures Market Creates “Guaranteed

Winners and Guaranteed Losers

By Pam Martens: November 6, 2014 

Remember the Senate hearing on June 18 when Senator Elizabeth Warren talked about the high frequency trading firm, Virtu, reporting in its IPO prospectus that it had been trading for 1,238 days and made money on 1,237 of those days. Last week three futures traders told a Federal court in Chicago that it’s not just the high frequency trading firms that are reaping a windfall but the exchanges who are engaged in a conspiracy with them to create “guaranteed winners and guaranteed losers.”

The original lawsuit was filed on April 11 against the CME Group and four of its officials in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois. The CME Group owns the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the largest futures exchange in the world. Terrence (Terry) Duffy, the Executive Chairman and President of the CME Group, a man who has testified before Congress that his exchanges have nothing to do with the charges of rigged markets that are swirling about, is a named defendant in the suit.

Last week lawyers for the plaintiff traders filed a Memorandum of Law to ward off efforts by CME Group’s attorneys to have the case dismissed for lack of specificity. Citing a case known as U.S. v. Snow, the plaintiffs respond that “conspiracy by its very nature is a secretive operation, and it is a rare case where all aspects of a conspiracy can be laid bare in court with … precision.”) Notwithstanding that, many of the charges laid before this court have been quite detailed and named names, such as the following:


Safety Dan
Nov 6, 2014 - 12:39pm

Gold, Economic Theory and

Gold, Economic Theory and Reality: A Conversation with Alan Greenspan https://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/gold-economic-theory-and-reality-a-co...

Source: JT Long of The Gold Report (11/5/14)

When Dr. Alan Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve, he moved from the world of rhetorical economics to the world of action. His most recent memoir, "The Map and the Territory 2.0: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting," attempts to make sense of how the financial crisis of 2008 came to be and how we can better predict future crises, along with the role of gold in a global monetary system. In this excerpt from Greenspan's appearance at the New Orleans Investment Conference with Navellier & Associates Senior Writer Gary Alexander, Gloom, Boom & Doom Report Publisher Marc Faber and Stansberry & Associates Investment Research Founder Porter Stansberry, The Gold Report delves into the role of gold versus fiat currency, why central banks own so much gold if it is truly "a barbarous relic," and the reason China is buying so much gold today.

NOIC 2014

Courtesy of Jefferson Financial

Gary Alexander: You said that when you were named to the position of Federal Reserve chair you left the world of theoretical economics philosophy and entered the arena of action. You moved beyond the role of pamphleteer on the sideline to being part of the action. In what way did your objectivist teaching from your time with Ayn Rand and your belief in the gold standard influence the people around you? How did you convince people to see things your way or did you feel that most of the compromise went the other way?

Alan Greenspan: When I wrote a paper on how agricultural subsidies made no sense to the farmers in the long run, two Republican senators from Nebraska taught me the reality of actually implementing the values we hold as best we can in the context of a political environment. I never changed my fundamental views because they were rational. President Ronald Reagan advised that other than your core beliefs, which are protected by the Constitution, sometimes you have to compromise. We learned to change the world bit by bit.

Hear Greenspan, Stansberry, Kauthammer, Faber, Schiff, Casey and Rule recorded live at the 40th annual New Orleans Investment Conference. 
Four days of presentations from top thinkers about how to protect and build wealth during uncertain markets.

Click now to order CDs and DVDs

GA: When you took office in August of 1987, the gold price was $460 an ounce ($460/oz) on your first day. It peaked at $504/oz in December of 1987. Over the next 12 years, it was cut in half to $252/oz by August of 1999. Many believe that during that time, the Fed must have been selling gold or manipulating the market in some way to push the price of gold down. Was anything like that happening?

AG: No. Some central banks were major sellers of gold in that particular period. We were very concerned about that. If all the central banks sold gold at the same time, it really would have brought the price down. So they set up a partitioning scheme—some called it a cartel—where individual central banks were given quotas of what they could sell at certain times. The United States abstained from that group.

In my new book, I cover the role of gold and why the U.S doesn't sell all of its gold. If it's a barbarous relic, as some say, and it earns nothing and it costs money to store it, why are central banks holding so much of it?

GA: That's a question I was going to ask you. Ron Paul asked Ben Bernanke in Congressional testimony that simple three-word question "Is gold money?," which got a one-word answer, No. What do think?

AG: It's currency, of course. Gold, and to a lesser extent silver, are the only major currencies that don't require a third party credit guarantee. Gold is inbred in human nature. Gold is special. For more than two millennia, gold has had virtually unquestioned acceptance as payment to discharge an obligation. Remember, Germany could not import any goods in the last part of World War II unless it paid in gold.

Today, China is beginning to convert part of its $4 trillion ($4T) foreign exchange reserve into gold as a partial diversification out of the dollar. Irrespective of whether the yuan is convertible into gold, the status of the Chinese currency could take on unexpected strength in today's fiat money, floating international financial system. It would be a gamble for China to try to buy enough gold bullion to displace the United States' $328 billion of gold reserves as the world's largest holder of monetary gold. But the cost of being wrong, in terms of lost interest and cost of storage, would be quite modest.

If China embarks on a gold accumulation program, global gold prices will rise, but only during the period of accumulation.

GA: One of your statements in your book is that even though the gold standard was not practical, you still believe in the theory of the gold standard.

AG: A return to the gold standard in any form is nowhere on anybody's horizon.

GA: The Fed has now been around for a hundred years. Would the Fed be considered a successful manager of the value of the dollar over the last century?

AG: Remember, what the Fed does is what Congress requires of it. When the Fed started out, U.S. currency was still on the gold standard. It was set up largely in response to the panic of 1907 as the lender of last resort. The gold standard was abandoned in 1933 because it appeared to be depressing the general price level and inhibiting recovery out of the Great Depression. More important, the restrictive nature of gold undermined the fiscal flexibility required by the New Deal's welfare state. Some blamed gold for the depression, but the problem wasn't convertibility to gold, it was a problem with the people pricing it.

What followed was fiat money price inflation. Between 1933 and 2008, prices for personal consumption increased more than thirteenfold. Central banks were then ceded the role of controlling the supply of money, and hence prices. The goal became keeping the rate of inflation down rather than the level of prices unchanged.

As the world adopted a welfare state psychology, challenges began to emerge. Values, culture, ideas and philosophy determine what economic policies look like. Unless and until you change that, nothing will happen. It is ideas that matter in economics.

GA: Interest rates remained very low from 2001 to mid-2004. The Fed fund rate was around 1% from 2004 to 2006. Do you regret, in retrospect, keeping rates so low? Might that have contributed in any way to the housing and real estate bubble?

AG: It became apparent after the dot-com boom that the central banks had lost control of the wrong end of the money. In other words, the Federal Reserve and all the central banks fixed the short end like the federal funds rate, but not the real rate on 10-year notes. We began to see a huge amount of international arbitrage in the bond markets. The result was the federal funds rate went down for a year to 1% because we hadn't seen price inflation. Money supply growth, long-term rates, all of the measures of inflation were unchanged. No one raised the issue at the time. Indeed, Economist Milton Friedman praised Federal Reserve policies. It wasn't until 2006 or 2007 that there was a retrospective look at what occurred.

GA: We all saw the headlines about people flipping homes and borrowing and refinancing homes and turning them into ATM machines. Wasn't that an indication that something was out of control?

AG: That had nothing to do with Federal Reserve policy. That was Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac keeping their debentures at an extraordinarily low level subsidized by the Federal government guarantee that they wouldn't be allowed to fail. Then the Department of Housing and Urban Development required that the two lenders invest a significant amount of their balance sheet into affordable housing loans. That led to huge numbers of subprime mortgages with low down payments and adjustable interest rates. Eventually, it blew the system apart.

Q: I'd like to turn now to the years after you left the Fed, which you wrote about in "The Age of Turbulence." We've now had almost six years of effective zero interest rate policy and not much measurable inflation. You wrote: "Thus without a change of policy, a higher rate of inflation can be anticipated in the United States. I know that the Federal Reserve left alone has the capacity and perseverance to effectively contain the inflation pressures I foresee. Yet to keep the inflation rate down to a gold standard level of under 1% would have to constrain monetary expansion so drastically that it could temporarily drive up interest rates in the double-digit range." However, they have done the opposite. The balance sheet has exploded, and yet rates have stayed so low. Inflation is not that measurable, and people are fearing deflation. Could you please explain the map of this territory?

AG: Money supply hasn't grown. The reason is very little of those excess reserves has been re-lent into the market to IBM or General Motors. That is because there is too much uncertainty, banks are better off holding it for 25 basis points. So we are left with this huge potential inflationary explosion tinder. Once those assets are triggered into the marketplace, then inflation will rise. It has to rise.

GA: My theory is the federal government doesn't want to raise rates because it has a $17T budget deficit to pay with interest, and that's going to hurt.

AG: When I was at the Fed, there was never a discussion between the Fed and the Department of the Treasury about the impact of rates on paying the deficit. With the size of the outstanding debt that we now have, the deficit could become fairly crippling if rates go up.

GA: I want to ask you about banks. You say three times in your book that banks have failed terribly in regulating themselves and it's usually the whistleblowers who draw attention to it. Today, we have the concept of too big to fail. Do you think we should allow big banks to fail?

AG: The premise of a financial system is to facilitate the movement of society's savings into productive capital assets, which will create a rising standard of living. To the extent that you don't allow creative destruction of companies, you do not optimize the use of the savings of a society. The issue that people don't want to address is the fact that creative destruction is an essential characteristic of a market economy, but it does have two aspects to it: creative and destructive. People like the creative, but they don't want the destructive. You cannot have it both ways. You either have a high standard of living by allowing the savings of society to increase productive assets or you finance everybody—creative or not—and by doing that, you're creating real serious problems.

Porter Stansberry: The thing that I think has changed in our economy during my lifetime is that debt has gotten so cheap. Debt used to be the last resort for people, now it seems to be the first choice. It makes our institutions fragile in a way that they were not before. The investment banks that blew up in 2008–2009, requiring huge bailouts from taxpayers, were fragile because they were leveraged 50:1. People who ran those institutions thought that was normal and sane. And it wasn't. We've all seen the culture of our country change. In my view, that's because we've gone from the role of the creditor to the role of the debtor. There are many institutions that enabled that process. The Fed is one of them.

AG: The standard of living in the economy is fundamentally tied to the issue of productivity and the degree of independent innovation. We have a very substantial degree of entitlements within this economy, an aggregate of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and a whole variety of other programs, all of which are mandated, not appropriated, by Congress under both parties. This leads to a reduction in the level of gross domestic savings, which immediately translates into lower capital of stock and lower standards of living. There is no way out of this arithmetic through bookkeeping. We are eating our seed corn.

Marc Faber: There are many reasons the Western economies are slowing down. One is government spending. Between 1870 and 1910, nowhere in Europe or in the U.S. was it above 15% of the economy. Now, U.S. government spending, including states and municipalities, is at around 40% of gross domestic product (GDP). In France, government spending is 57% of GDP. The larger the government becomes, the less economic growth there will be. So Dr. Greenspan and I agree on the problem, but who financed all these entitlements? I believe the central banks with their artificially low interest rates are deliberately creating bubbles even though in a bubble, the majority loses, and the minority makes a lot of money.

AG: The presumption is that if the Federal Reserve were not funding the deficits, they wouldn't happen. You have it backwards. Politicians mandate the degree of expenditures and taxes. What would happen if there is no central bank is that interest rates would push up and crowd out the private sector. That is what actually occurs unless the central banks intervene. Central banks are not the primary cause of this problem, they are responding to government spending. If the government spending weren't there, the issue wouldn't arise.

GA: With the current Federal Reserve probably winding up quantitative easing (QE) soon, what do you see as the outcome of the current Fed policies under Janet Yellen over the next year?

PS: I really think that the current Fed is in a terribly difficult situation. The federal government is way over its head in debt. It's $150,000 per taxpayer in debt. There is just no way politically to cut these expenditures nor is there a way to generate enough in income taxes or corporate taxes to cover the shortfall. I've looked at the data. It shows that even if you doubled the amount taken in income taxes, we'd still be running a deficit. So the Fed is in a really tough place. It is in charge of financing the government's runaway spending and uncontrollable debt.

Regardless of what the hawks may say, I just don't believe that the Fed is ever going to become very aggressive with the purse strings. I think that we're locked into a pattern of larger and larger QEs, lower and lower rates, until finally something breaks, whether that's the commodity markets or the bond markets. I actually sort of feel sorry for the folks who are at the Fed currently because they're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

MF: My sense is that the Fed and other central banks around the world will keep interest rates at very low levels for a very long time. The whole investment world has been distorted by essentially zero interest rates and expansionary monetary policies.

AG: If the Federal Reserve wants to keep the same degree of tightening, it has to actually raise the rate it's paying on the money. There's no other alternative. The issue of the size of the balance sheets is beyond comprehension. We are going to have to wait and see what happens when the huge amount of unused reserves starts moving. We have never seen anything like this before. If anyone has the guts to go out and forecast five years out from now, good luck.

PS: Dr. Greenspan, you famously said while you were at the Fed that spotting bubbles is notoriously difficult until in retrospect. There are a couple of things going on today that strike me as bubble-like behavior: NASDAQ trading at almost seven times earnings, high-yield corporate debt offering less than 5%, beachfront condos in Miami selling for $30 million. Do any of those things strike you as being in bubble territory?

AG: Commercial real estate, which was dead in the water with respect to price and volume, has now had a significant change in pricing. Prime areas have seen a surge in funding, but the volume of activity is not back to where it was. Multifamily is doing better because a lot of people have shifted from home ownership to rental status. You will know you are in very serious trouble when there is price inflation but no buyers; that's suggestive of something not well going on. Yes, I think there are many signs.

The stock prices have been very surprising. This is not sustainable, but we are not seeing any signs of inflation or real interest rates rising. . .yet.

Bubbles are easy to see, but difficult—if not impossible—to pinpoint when they implode because of the way markets work. If people see it coming, it won't happen. No one can forecast when those bubbles will break.

GA: Marc Faber, what is the significance of the Swiss referendum coming up next month to have 20% gold backing, repatriated gold and forbid gold selling?

MF: I think it will be rejected. If the proposal was for 100% backing, I would more enthusiastically endorse it. Twenty percent, in my opinion, is neither here nor there. I believe that smart investors need to have their own gold reserves. I would never trust anyone to hold these gold reserves on my behalf because they can lease it out or they can sell it.

Safety Dan
Nov 6, 2014 - 12:40pm
Danforth Coxwell
Nov 6, 2014 - 12:53pm

How do you stop the spread of infectious disease???

Proper hand washing is a effective first step. Contact your local Public Health Department for more details.

ancientmoney Danforth Coxwell
Nov 6, 2014 - 1:11pm

How do you stop the spread of infectious disease???

Kill the people who make up the shadow government that wants to decimate America.

Alonzo Jazzberry
Nov 6, 2014 - 1:39pm

What were these primary silver miners doing

during the 90s and 00s where silver was ~$6/oz? Was all silver mining just secondary other than a select few ultra rich deposits?

Nov 6, 2014 - 1:39pm

silver availability


I have wondered about industrial use also. there is a jewelry supply near my house that supplies all the Native American jewelers in Northern AZ. I'll ask about supplies there. But it seems that economic slowdown would decrease industrial demand, as well as jewelry demand, leaving more available for minting coins & bars.

My Oct 1 Provident order still has not arrived -- waiting 36 days now when the usual time is 10-14 days.

When Apmex and Provident start turning away customers, then we have a shortage. The mint has stopped sales before. I think they just didn't get the memo of the price direction.

Nov 6, 2014 - 1:42pm

Ancientmoney answered the question to...

How do you stop the spread of infectious disease???...

Kill the people who make up the shadow government that wants to decimate America!...Now...let's start with New York!!!...


Bag Of Gold

Nov 6, 2014 - 1:51pm

deflationary bias be damned

Some days you've just got to ring the register on some crap metal that no one wants, even though it's not held by central banks, just because

Video unavailable
Nov 6, 2014 - 1:52pm


I think the aspect of the gold market that really does not get mentioned enough is the fact that JEWELRY makes up 45% of physical demand!!!

So if we all acknowledge that we have weak economic conditions all over the globe, how in the world is that going to be supportive of strong demand for gold jewelry sales? It's not, that's one of the main reasons why gold trades at $1150 oz today.

When was the last time anyone of these gold "experts" discussed this aspect of the market? Almost never. We have all seen the decrease in gold jewelry demand in the statistics, why so many bulls ignore them is crazy, it's almost half of the market!

Nov 6, 2014 - 2:07pm

Silver Shortage

Yeah just called my LCS, as much as I want, as fast as I want it, no issues.

It's all about the strong dollar (DXY), end...of...story.

That being said, I think we are quite oversold at this point. The DXY index is fast approaching the 2010 level of 88.70.

I would expect the first attempt to reach this level to be reverted, then we will see the relief rally take hold in the PM's for a month or two. If it goes through this level on the first attempt, watch out below.

Ultimately, the dollar is going to 95 and prob a 100 handle as Europe implodes with Japan. Metals will revert back down into the end of next year.

Nov 6, 2014 - 2:10pm

Soaring Demand

I have a question. If demand is soaring, why are many of the big miners (barrick, newmont, etc) reporting lower sales volumes in gold in Q3? Not just lower revenue (due to falling prices), but actually lower sales volumes.

Nov 6, 2014 - 2:13pm

Silver Shortage

Oh yeah and tomorrow is non-farm payrolls, expect a PM bloodbath.

The fireworks should start around 1am est, when some prudent fiduciary manager will short $1.5B worth of PM futures in a span of 10 mins and run every single stop along the way.

PM's will tank 3 & 6% but you will never get to buy at those low prices because price will recover 50-60% of their daily losses before the US open.

Stock_Canines dow2000
Nov 6, 2014 - 2:14pm

dow2000 - I agree

Armstrong has gold bottoming between 675 and 910 at some point in late 2015/early 2016. Seems reasonable. Besides a few analysts, everyone following and commenting on the PM space got it dead wrong. There will be no moon shot, reset, default, or anything but a slow grind lower.

Nov 6, 2014 - 2:16pm

Silver Shortage

I am a longtime PM bull, for better or worse. But I have been a keen observer for a long time and I would be remiss not to acknowledge this repeated pattern.

That being said, I have no expectation of price increase for the next year. I will continue to stack with increasing intensity with the next and final leg down in the second half of next year.

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