No Joy in Mudville

166
Thu, Oct 30, 2014 - 11:19am

Like you, I was hoping that we could file away these longer-term charts with the downward price targets. Unfortunately, the price action of yesterday and today means that we have to revisit them.

Let's start with the HUI. We've been repeatedly mentioning that there was a likelihood of the index falling all the way back to the lows seen in 2005 and again in 2008. Well, here we are. I've got a low so far today of 167.92. Not quite the 160-165 that we've been discussing but awfully close.

And, just so you know, things don't have to stop here. Perhaps the ultimate goal is to bankrupt the entire industry but shorting them to death and damnation. Maybe. Check the chart below. Could the HUI fall to 100 or lower? That seems laughable and unlikely but, in the end, WTFK? I know that many of you own these damn things and I've suggested nibbling away at these levels but you must be cognizant of the fact that greater forces than Turdville are at work here and if they want to sell these poor companies down to zero they're going to try to do it.

And here are your 5-year, weekly gold and silver charts. Earlier this month, we figured that The Cartel and the spec algos that are short had to be absolutely salivating at the prospect of running the stops below 80. They were unsuccessful back then but look to be ready to try again soon. The question becomes: Does this set off a waterfall similar to April 2013, where price almost immediately falls to 50? Perhaps, instead, it's a fake out and price almost immediately reverses near 55? Something tells me we may not have to wait long to find out...

And silver is just awful. Like the miners, it has been shorted to death with absolutely no care for fundamentals or economics. Seriously, it's now down over 5% on the day. Why, exactly? Just a handful of hedgy algos piling on the paper shorts, chasing the downward momentum to lower and lower lows. At this point, and especially if gold plunges through 80, it sure looks like silver is headed to the early 2010 lows near .65.

So there you have it. It is what it is. Instead of an A2A today, I'll be in the TurdTalk chatroom beginning at Noon EDT where I'll be glad to attempt to answer any and all questions you have.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  166 Comments

Wizdum
Oct 30, 2014 - 11:52am

14...and a quarter

is some fib sequence number I am expecting...i hope not but what can ya do?

matt_
Oct 30, 2014 - 11:53am

Volumes in some miners are REALLY high

Like I am in a war throwing pebbles at an aircraft carrier.

Mickey
Oct 30, 2014 - 11:54am

election and thanksgiving

some pressure will be taken off after the election, however the big question as to this BS recovery will be black thursday and friday retail sales.

it appears that expectations have been lowered. who knows what happens and then in 3 months we start finding out how this holiday season really was.

govt info on retail sales wil certainly be robust. but the retails in general keep missing that memo.

Wizdum
Oct 30, 2014 - 11:54am

neat stuff

more uses for silver every day it seems:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasmonic_metamaterials

Whitecastle123goldcom
Oct 30, 2014 - 11:54am

New River

I've been on the New River but that was in Belize a few years ago.

This 4th. qtr. rally must be the anti-rally.

Hypnotized Housewife
Oct 30, 2014 - 11:56am

Worthless shares?

I'm really not being a wise acre here - do I actually have to consider that some mining shares could become worthless, as in zero? Forgive me for being a novice. I am trying to digest the magnitude of this.

CONSTANTINE
Oct 30, 2014 - 11:56am

I CANNOT BELIEVE!!

I cannot believe in these blatantly manipulated environments that anyone would buy miner stocks (inventory in the ground).

Apparently you have not ever encountered the concept of "eminent domain" as it could be rewritten to apply to miners assets.

A lot easier than confiscating physical in your possession. Buy only physical now.

Constantine

goldcom
Oct 30, 2014 - 12:00pm

No mic needed

It's just a text-only chat room.

Headed there now.

R man J
Oct 30, 2014 - 12:01pm

A short ton?

And after today's ridiculous buy-the-dip purchase I wondered if I would qualify.

I asked myself if I owned a "short-ton" of silver yet. So I looked it up. It is exactly 2,000 pounds. So...no, not yet.

Then I asked myself if I owned a "sh*t-ton". And here was the result.

"Like a metric assload, a metric sh*t ton is exactly 204.62262 pounds more than a sh*t ton."

Futher calculations determined that I did not own a sh*t-ton yet, but was getting dangerously close to owning a sh*t-load.

Danforth Coxwell
Oct 30, 2014 - 12:01pm

How do you stop the spread of infectious disease???

Use proper hand washing techniques!!!! Contact your local Public Health Department for more details.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 2/24

2/25 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/26 10:00 ET New home sales
2/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP second guess
2/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
2/27 11:30 ET Goon Evans speech
2/28 8:30 ET Pers Income and Spending
2/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
2/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, 3 hours 35 min ago
by silverseeker, 3 hours 40 min ago
by mavens, 4 hours 42 min ago
by waxybilldupp, 5 hours 30 min ago
by HappyNow, 6 hours 23 min ago
randomness