No Joy in Mudville

Thu, Oct 30, 2014 - 11:19am

Like you, I was hoping that we could file away these longer-term charts with the downward price targets. Unfortunately, the price action of yesterday and today means that we have to revisit them.

Let's start with the HUI. We've been repeatedly mentioning that there was a likelihood of the index falling all the way back to the lows seen in 2005 and again in 2008. Well, here we are. I've got a low so far today of 167.92. Not quite the 160-165 that we've been discussing but awfully close.

And, just so you know, things don't have to stop here. Perhaps the ultimate goal is to bankrupt the entire industry but shorting them to death and damnation. Maybe. Check the chart below. Could the HUI fall to 100 or lower? That seems laughable and unlikely but, in the end, WTFK? I know that many of you own these damn things and I've suggested nibbling away at these levels but you must be cognizant of the fact that greater forces than Turdville are at work here and if they want to sell these poor companies down to zero they're going to try to do it.

And here are your 5-year, weekly gold and silver charts. Earlier this month, we figured that The Cartel and the spec algos that are short had to be absolutely salivating at the prospect of running the stops below $1180. They were unsuccessful back then but look to be ready to try again soon. The question becomes: Does this set off a waterfall similar to April 2013, where price almost immediately falls to $1050? Perhaps, instead, it's a fake out and price almost immediately reverses near $1155? Something tells me we may not have to wait long to find out...

And silver is just awful. Like the miners, it has been shorted to death with absolutely no care for fundamentals or economics. Seriously, it's now down over 5% on the day. Why, exactly? Just a handful of hedgy algos piling on the paper shorts, chasing the downward momentum to lower and lower lows. At this point, and especially if gold plunges through $1180, it sure looks like silver is headed to the early 2010 lows near $14.65.

So there you have it. It is what it is. Instead of an A2A today, I'll be in the TurdTalk chatroom beginning at Noon EDT where I'll be glad to attempt to answer any and all questions you have.


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goldcom · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:20am


Where is everyone?

huiaid · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:21am



alivecatbounce · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:22am


Here we go again ! Another big down move and probably it has not even started . PERFECT for stackers and people who know this whole market action is only an illusion and very temporary . KEEP STACKING . 

Mickey · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:24am



afraid to sell dust dslv dgld and jdst--was actually net short metals in portfolio for a while so I had to sell som eof inverse.

btw--when I go so heavily inverse etfs, as do others, guess who is fueling this downdraft?

bert3798 · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:35am


Is this the capitulation stage or are we just experiencing tax-loss selling? SOMEONE

nadgeskaul · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:41am

I stated in the last post...capitulation

I believe this is it, or very near it for the miners. Not so for the metals, as they tend to lag.

Seriously, getting a stock for $3 when it traded at $75 with gold at $1800 is absurd.

Be selective, but this is the time to buy...very little left on the downside.

Mr. Fix · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:41am

using charts to make predictions:

Since the powers that be clearly paint their charts in any which way they please,

 we can paint our charts as well, as mine just keep creeping lower until they fall off the cliff.

Although I can't place a specific date on where the precipice is, it's not all that far off into the future, and things will become clearer next week.

 Just like all paper assets, prices are destined to approach zero, so paint your chart accordingly.

 This is the endgame, there will be no rebound.

 Just pray that your stack can be traded for something of value in the next system, it sure as heck won't be going up in this one.

 Prepare accordingly.

tread_w_care · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:45am

Premiums are the highest

I remember seeing them in the last, oh, let's see . . . ever?

I bought a lot of generic rounds from Apmex back in the day around a spot price of $17 for $0.69 over spot, any quantity. Sadly lost those while canoeing the New River.

Watching to see where this thing might bottom out and hope there's some left when the music stops. 

goldcom · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:46am

Just checked Chat

I don't have microphone or camera so can I listen?

Wizdum · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:51am


Who's buying?

Wizdum · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:52am

14...and a quarter

is some fib sequence number I am expecting...i hope not but what can ya do?

matt_ · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:53am

Volumes in some miners are REALLY high

Like I am in a war throwing pebbles at an aircraft carrier.

Mickey · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:54am

election and thanksgiving

some pressure will be taken off after the election, however the big question as to this BS recovery will be black thursday and friday retail sales.

it appears that expectations have been lowered. who knows what happens and then in 3 months we start finding out how this holiday season really was.

govt info on retail sales wil certainly be robust. but the retails in general keep missing that memo.

Wizdum · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:54am

neat stuff

more uses for silver every day it seems:

Whitecastle123 goldcom · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:54am

New River

I've been on the New River but that was in Belize a few years ago.

This 4th. qtr. rally must be the anti-rally.

Hypnotized Housewife · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:56am

Worthless shares?

I'm really not being a wise acre here - do I actually have to consider that some mining shares could become worthless, as in zero? Forgive me for being a novice. I am trying to digest the magnitude of this.

CONSTANTINE · Oct 30, 2014 - 11:56am


I cannot believe in these blatantly manipulated environments that anyone would buy miner stocks (inventory in the ground).

Apparently you have not ever encountered the concept of "eminent domain" as it could be rewritten to apply to miners assets.

A lot easier than confiscating physical in your possession. Buy only physical now.


goldcom · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:00pm

No mic needed

It's just a text-only chat room. 

Headed there now.

R man J · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:01pm

A short ton?

And after today's ridiculous buy-the-dip purchase I wondered if I would qualify.

I asked myself if I owned a "short-ton" of silver yet. So I looked it up. It is exactly 2,000 pounds., not yet.

Then I asked myself if I owned a "sh*t-ton". And here was the result.

"Like a metric assload, a metric sh*t ton is exactly 204.62262 pounds more than a sh*t ton."

Futher calculations determined that I did not own a sh*t-ton yet, but was getting dangerously close to owning a sh*t-load.

Danforth Coxwell · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:01pm

How do you stop the spread of infectious disease???

Use proper hand washing techniques!!!! Contact your local Public Health Department for more details.

Mickey · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:02pm

my first comment

I mentioned in my first post here that I hedged via dust dgld dslv and jdst. I bet I am far from the only one doing that.

I also wound up selling some miners like aem and when we all take off the inverse and then buy --that folks is what wil cause a heck of an upmove as it should also being back folks who have been out of the sector or perhaps never been in the sector.

gold silver and miners now look like seeing a start of a recovery.

real or suckers move up?

Bollocks · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:02pm


Number of Billionaires Has Doubled Since the Financial Crisis

The super-rich club has become less exclusive, with the amount of billionaires doubling since the financial crisis, according to a report from global charity Oxfam. There were 1,645 billionaires globally as of March 2014, according to Forbes data cited in the Oxfam report, up from 793 in March 2009.

Oxfam honed in on this figure to highlight the growing gap between the world's rich and poor. Hundreds of millions of people live in abject poverty without healthcare or education, while the super-rich continue to amass levels of wealth they may never be able to spend. The report 'Even it Up: Time to End Extreme Inequality' noted that the world's richest 85 people saw their wealth jump by a further $668 million per day collectively between 2013 and 2014, which equates to half a million dollars a minute. In January Oxfam issued a report highlighting that the world's 85 richest people's collective wealth is equal to that the poorest half of the world's population. "Far from being a driver of economic growth, extreme inequality is a barrier to prosperity for most people on the planet," said Winnie Byanyima, international executive director of Oxfam.

AJwhiteshirt · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:03pm

Possible turn-around catalyst..

Not much else on the near term radar for a turn-around but there is still one biggie wild card.

It's a maybe but it could provide a turn-around.

The Swiss Gold initiative vote is on November 30.

Attaching a recent 5 minute You-Tube video from a passionate & informed politician making the case to create a Swiss gold backed currency.

Swiss Gold Initiative 30 November 2014 Volksinitiative
zerocd matt_ · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:04pm

Dry Powder

I have some I was saving.....

Might be the time!

Bollocks · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:05pm

Danforth Coxwell

You haven't got any hands have you?

Hand-Envy is a serious disease. Contact your local Public Health Department for more details.

· Oct 30, 2014 - 12:06pm

silver premium? steady...

I usually buy a generic 100 oz bar or 10 oz bars when I purchase. the premium is usually 60-75 per ounce. Today it is about the same and it seems that silver is available at Provident. I would have expected the suppliers to raise the premiums. I ordered some metal on Oct 1 and it still has not arrived. They say that my check was held up, though my prior order on Sept 29 was delivered in the usual time. Very strange. Too many odd events happening at once gets me to scratching my head. QE ends, FOMC is hawkish, FOMC rumored to be stumped, elections approaching, Harvey and others warning of fireworks in December, Unexpected price smash.

The list of coincidences is getting long.

erewenguy · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:07pm

Reposted here from older thread

In a "past life" I had numerous conversations with the head of the Poultry Federation of a major poultry producing state. He told me that market prices paid to producers were periodically adjusted so that 1/3 of the producers went out of business, 1/3 were breaking even, and only 1/3 turned a profit.

Probably not a great deal different from what we are seeing with the miners.

tmosley · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:08pm

It's funny, i had a dream a

It's funny, i had a dream a few nights ago that I was watching the HUI crash, really really badly. Started at $150, then 135, then 95, and so on, huge drops every tick, until it was below a dollar and I was going nuts trying to get money into my trading account ASAP.

Maybe I should go ahead and send in some Jantebux. Beat the rush.

· Oct 30, 2014 - 12:12pm

In chat room

Not sure why it isn't working as planned.

I see 22 other names in there but no one is utilizing the text/chat feature.

MrOnline · Oct 30, 2014 - 12:13pm


It doesnt look like chat is working as it should. :(

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