The Seven Year Shemitah or Shmita Cycle

86
Sun, Oct 12, 2014 - 3:48pm

I have noticed much discussion about this cycle in recent weeks. The narrative is that it is a religious reflection of the Sabbath principle, whereby six days are for work and the seventh is for rest. Apply this idea to a timescale of years and it becomes 6 years tilling the fields and the seventh year for allowing the land to go fallow and regenerate fertility.

A little searching will reveal that certain parts of the world take the Shmita "cycle" pretty seriously. Some connotations are that the seventh year should be interpreted as a year during which financial debts are cleared completely - a Debt Jubilee. The indebted part of the world could do with that I guess, but the part of the world that owns said debts would be more likely to respond with high velocity projectiles, explosives and assassinations of those adventurous persons who propose such ... revolutionary ... notions, and look like they are becoming increasingly heard by the masses.

So is there really a seven year cycle? What would it look like if there was? It's easy to take eg 2008, the stock market high and go back 7 years to 2001 and say "Look! The 911 attack happened then!". My simple response would be that 911 is possibly a connected event, but only possibly. Let's look back some more before jumping to possibly false conclusions.

Another 7 years prior was 1994 a time during which the bond market took a dive. But I have this nagging doubt still. Look at it this way, every year bad things happen and it's so easy to cherry pick newsy events to curve fit a theory. I need to see either more precision, or more duration of an increased number os repetitious sequences to become convinced.

So with that in mind I went back to 1915 and walked forward 100 years to see how a 7 year alleged cycle corresponds with the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in stocks.

Readers are free to make up their own minds about what they see, or don't see. I provide the visual track record for your perusal. Oh also, this cycle has a test using the Bartels test of approximately 90% probability of being non random in timing and fit of it's wave structure.

I tracked it back to 1865 but decided to show the last 100 years for this contribution.

Above: The 1910s and roaring 20s and seven year cycle in the Dow.

Above: The 1929 crash, 1930s and 40s depression years and the seven year cycle in the Dow.

Above: The post WWII depression period from 1945 to 1965 and the seven year cycle

Above: The 1970s stagflationary depression and the early 1980 inflationary breakout for the Dow with the 7 Year cycle

Above: The 1980s, 1987 crash, and 1990s and the seven year cycle in Dow stocks

Above: The "naughties" and "teens and seven year cycle in the DJIA

The above chart shows what might happen in this alleged cycle actually exists, and continues it's merry way for the coming six years.

Of course those of us who are politically aligned might point to a 7.5 to 8.5 year cycle which could occur when two presidency terms within the US, Japan or elsewhere are filled consecutively by the same individual, a like-thinking sequence of individuals (such as in communist countries, a "chosen" replacement candidate) or when two business cycles are joined together in a pairing. Many countries choose political leaders such as they are able to, at 3 1/2 to 4 year intervals, and therefore two terms together makes up the required time. So the Sabbath is a nice idea, and it goes back a long time for sure, but I merely point out to readers that the self organized structure of mankind in many places on the planet allows for semi repetitious performance, whether to good or bad effect, for other reasons too. Choose your cause if you need to.

Before signing off, take another look at those charts above. Did you notice a tendency to go down for only 1/4 of the 7 years and to go sideways and up for the other 3/4s? That is it may go up for 5 1/4 or 5 1/2 years and fall quite quickly for the remainder of the 7 year period. If this cycle is real, that tendency might be real too.

So ... if it doesn't bottom at the half way point, could this exercise just be looking at pairs of three and a half year cycles? It might well be so. If it were so, then the lows in the seven year idealized sine wave might look like highs instead of lows, and the actual lows would appear at the times when the sine wave crosses it's midpoint, or centre of trading range. Possibly this happens sometimes but not all the time and both cycles can be seen doing their thing.

There is another angle to the narrative of the Schemitah. That is that seventh Schemitah (every 7 x 7 = 49 years) can be "a big one"! Pay attention to this period for anniversaries of turbulent events past. Also, 49 years is not that far from the 53-54 year Kondratieff economic cycle, and given that these types of things have a certain built in variance there could be a link.

You've got to decide some things for yourself, especially when the information available is partial and subjective, rather than enough to constitute proof. I think there is enough information here to work with, or make a good start into a more detailed investigation, should that be deemed necessary.

Well that's all for now.

Take care

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author

  86 Comments

  Refresh
foggyroadargentus maximus
Oct 16, 2014 - 4:25pm

Very Welcome

I thank you, Am.

Your mind, and skill set have me completely enthralled, I really enjoy your work.

The Key to success in any endeavour, is to surround yourself with the best and the brightest, imho.

I hope to regain all the stolen pennies, by following your valuable work.

God's Peace and Blessing to You and yours.

Best;

foggy

Oct 16, 2014 - 3:40pm

Thanks for the update

Thanks for the update Foggyroad.

If it follows recent pattern there will be a buying point (within the bear?) for a stocks rally sometime during 2016.

foggyroad
Oct 16, 2014 - 2:42pm

Shemitah

October Surprise: Dow Stocks Plummet 450+ Rattling the Globe, Just The Beginning of Great Shaking

​**

Video unavailable
Magpie
Oct 15, 2014 - 1:51pm

Duncan treated by unprotected staff in hospital hallway

https://houston.cbslocal.com/2014/10/15/nurses-union-ebola-patient-left-...

The nurses allege that his lab samples were allowed to travel through the hospital’s pneumatic tubes, possibly risking contaminating of the specimen-delivery system. They also said that hazardous waste was allowed to pile up to the ceiling.

DollarMenu2
Oct 14, 2014 - 1:08pm

Grist for the ebola mill...

Here's an interesting aspect from the fringe:

Video unavailable

​"Daughter of former hed of Iranian secret police maps ebola genes to human genes @ Harvard..."

This world is strange - and the internet sure beats TV for entertainmment.

Hammer
Oct 14, 2014 - 11:31am

After looking at the post

After looking at the post again, I think you may be right. I might have misinterpreted flattery for sarcasm due to the icon used at the end. I will reinstate ach and happily so :)

Oct 14, 2014 - 10:59am

@Hammer + morning dose of propaganda

@Hammer - I'm pretty sure achmachat meant no offense, you might have misread his comments This morning on NatPubRadio: Shale fracturing will generate more oil in US than Saudi output by 2020, more global output than demand, 'glut' of oil. Yet they repeatedly used the phrase "how long can oil prices be KEPT this low', as if oil prices weren't determined by free markets reflecting supply & demand. Also 'ER worker' from NY (read: non-MD) gets airtime to promote opinion that one can only contract Ebola by directly touching infected body fluids or mucus membranes, the virus has no airborne transmission, and all these protective suits are creating the wrong 'optics' in public perception about the outbreak. So good to see publicly funded, objective and independent investigative journalism shine a much-needed light on how the world REALLY works... ;-)

Mr. Fix
Oct 14, 2014 - 10:07am

The big lie:

I've read that story a couple of times this morning, it's linked from many different sources.

Also, YouTube has dozens of videos supposedly “proving” that it is all a hoax.

It really makes you wonder, if anything is real anymore.

Anyway, I've got a busy day planned, and some things just weren't meant to figure out.

Have a nice day.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

ancientmoney
Oct 14, 2014 - 9:53am

Jim Stone: Ebola story a big lie . . .

https://jimstonefreelance.com/ebolie.html

Who knows what is real and what isn't? This is supposedly from someone on the ground in Ghana.

Safety Dan
Oct 14, 2014 - 7:47am

I'm going out on a limb

I'm going out on a limb here..

Sure seems like there are several potential options for the treatment of Ebola.

  • Why then isn't MSM posting the various drugs in testing information?
  • Why did the Nanosilver get returned from Nigeria?
  • Why does MSM & Government tell us 'they have it under control' and Ebola isn't airborne?

Beginning to sound allot like the old Russia programing from State owned media.. just before Russia collapsed...

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Recent Comments

by GoldHermit, 8 min 35 sec ago
by Seithen, 9 min 19 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 29 min 20 sec ago
by Ollie, 41 min 10 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 43 min 34 sec ago

Forum Discussion

by paybyphonecasinouk, 3 hours 4 min ago
by 11IMIX, 8 hours 25 min ago
by 11IMIX, 8 hours 28 min ago
by ClimbingPanther, Jul 13, 2020 - 10:23pm
by Saxon888, Jul 13, 2020 - 4:28pm
randomness