The Seven Year Shemitah or Shmita Cycle

Sun, Oct 12, 2014 - 3:48pm

I have noticed much discussion about this cycle in recent weeks. The narrative is that it is a religious reflection of the Sabbath principle, whereby six days are for work and the seventh is for rest. Apply this idea to a timescale of years and it becomes 6 years tilling the fields and the seventh year for allowing the land to go fallow and regenerate fertility.

A little searching will reveal that certain parts of the world take the Shmita "cycle" pretty seriously. Some connotations are that the seventh year should be interpreted as a year during which financial debts are cleared completely - a Debt Jubilee. The indebted part of the world could do with that I guess, but the part of the world that owns said debts would be more likely to respond with high velocity projectiles, explosives and assassinations of those adventurous persons who propose such ... revolutionary ... notions, and look like they are becoming increasingly heard by the masses.

So is there really a seven year cycle? What would it look like if there was? It's easy to take eg 2008, the stock market high and go back 7 years to 2001 and say "Look! The 911 attack happened then!". My simple response would be that 911 is possibly a connected event, but only possibly. Let's look back some more before jumping to possibly false conclusions.

Another 7 years prior was 1994 a time during which the bond market took a dive. But I have this nagging doubt still. Look at it this way, every year bad things happen and it's so easy to cherry pick newsy events to curve fit a theory. I need to see either more precision, or more duration of an increased number os repetitious sequences to become convinced.

So with that in mind I went back to 1915 and walked forward 100 years to see how a 7 year alleged cycle corresponds with the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in stocks.

Readers are free to make up their own minds about what they see, or don't see. I provide the visual track record for your perusal. Oh also, this cycle has a test using the Bartels test of approximately 90% probability of being non random in timing and fit of it's wave structure.

I tracked it back to 1865 but decided to show the last 100 years for this contribution.

Above: The 1910s and roaring 20s and seven year cycle in the Dow.

Above: The 1929 crash, 1930s and 40s depression years and the seven year cycle in the Dow.

Above: The post WWII depression period from 1945 to 1965 and the seven year cycle

Above: The 1970s stagflationary depression and the early 1980 inflationary breakout for the Dow with the 7 Year cycle

Above: The 1980s, 1987 crash, and 1990s and the seven year cycle in Dow stocks

Above: The "naughties" and "teens and seven year cycle in the DJIA

The above chart shows what might happen in this alleged cycle actually exists, and continues it's merry way for the coming six years.

Of course those of us who are politically aligned might point to a 7.5 to 8.5 year cycle which could occur when two presidency terms within the US, Japan or elsewhere are filled consecutively by the same individual, a like-thinking sequence of individuals (such as in communist countries, a "chosen" replacement candidate) or when two business cycles are joined together in a pairing. Many countries choose political leaders such as they are able to, at 3 1/2 to 4 year intervals, and therefore two terms together makes up the required time. So the Sabbath is a nice idea, and it goes back a long time for sure, but I merely point out to readers that the self organized structure of mankind in many places on the planet allows for semi repetitious performance, whether to good or bad effect, for other reasons too. Choose your cause if you need to.

Before signing off, take another look at those charts above. Did you notice a tendency to go down for only 1/4 of the 7 years and to go sideways and up for the other 3/4s? That is it may go up for 5 1/4 or 5 1/2 years and fall quite quickly for the remainder of the 7 year period. If this cycle is real, that tendency might be real too.

So ... if it doesn't bottom at the half way point, could this exercise just be looking at pairs of three and a half year cycles? It might well be so. If it were so, then the lows in the seven year idealized sine wave might look like highs instead of lows, and the actual lows would appear at the times when the sine wave crosses it's midpoint, or centre of trading range. Possibly this happens sometimes but not all the time and both cycles can be seen doing their thing.

There is another angle to the narrative of the Schemitah. That is that seventh Schemitah (every 7 x 7 = 49 years) can be "a big one"! Pay attention to this period for anniversaries of turbulent events past. Also, 49 years is not that far from the 53-54 year Kondratieff economic cycle, and given that these types of things have a certain built in variance there could be a link.

You've got to decide some things for yourself, especially when the information available is partial and subjective, rather than enough to constitute proof. I think there is enough information here to work with, or make a good start into a more detailed investigation, should that be deemed necessary.

Well that's all for now.

Take care

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author


Oct 12, 2014 - 4:10pm

Thanks Argentus

Yealp, very interesting. I was thinking more about this, and as you have mentioned it has been talked about much lately.

One thing that I have also wondered regarding the 7 year elimination of debt and maybe why the 7 year Mortgage came about???

Regarding the "let the fields lay fallow on the 7th year", I guess that's a good time to use the emergency food supplies to keep them fresh? As long as there is not a drought the 8th year...


I was going to post this when I noticed the new thread, anyone see this?

sierra skier
Oct 12, 2014 - 4:22pm

Just in time

I ran out of other posts. Thanks AM.

Edit in: You always provide good food for thought. Thanks for your analysis on the 7 yer pattern.

Oct 12, 2014 - 4:35pm


Latest from Chris Martenson

The Crash Course - Chapter 17 - Understanding Asset Bubbles

Through the long sweep of history, the bursting of asset bubbles has nearly always been traumatic. Social, political and economic upheavals have a bad habit of following asset bubbles, while wealth destruction is a guaranteed feature.

Bubbles only used to happen once every generation or longer, because it took substantial time for the victims to forget the pain of the damage.

But that’s changed in the new millennium. Less than ten years after the bursting of the dot-com bubble we saw the rise & bursting of the housing bubble. This is simply astounding and thoroughly unprecedented.

More astonishingly, there are now concurrent equity and bond bubbles raging across the entire financial market structure of the world.

We are in our third bubble period in less than 15 years. This new era of serial bubble-blowing signifies that we are now in new turbulent territory with which we have little historical guidance to draw on.

The recent years of money printing by the world's central banks has NOT ushered in a “permanent plateau of prosperity”. And, as with all bubbles, symmetry indicates the downslope after the bursting will be steep, swift, and likely quite scary.

Jeremiah Jr
Oct 12, 2014 - 4:43pm

Great Post

Don't often post on MS and not quite sure about the direct 1-1 correlation between the financial markets and the Shemitah, but imo that cycle is still active, or will be shortly in the future, Always enjoy your perspective.

Oct 12, 2014 - 4:50pm

Martin Armstrongs cycle's

They are real close to this, 8.6 years I think?

He writes on PDF pg35 below (in pg58 of the paper's pages) about this 8.6 year cycle of his model's. It was correlating with the 1980 gold high, so based on that 2014 is 4 cycles away from that?

Oct 12, 2014 - 5:11pm

It's that number 7 again

Interesting stuff Argentus. Thank you .

Oct 12, 2014 - 6:03pm

Sweden close to being cashless society

Four out of five purchases in Sweden are paid electronically or by debit card and with the development of cheaper technology the trend is moving towards a fully cash free society, according to a new report.

"Sweden and the rest of Scandinavia leads the world in terms of cashless trading," said Bengt Nilervall at the Swedish Federation of Trade (Svensk Handel).

Swedes use their debit and credit cards almost every day - an average of 260 transactions per person per year.

The picture is very different in southern Europe. In Italy, for example, three-quarters of all consumer purchases are still paid for in cash.

"That is due to the low confidence in the authorities and the banking system," said Niklas Arvidsson, an associate professor of industrial dynamics.

Arvidsson argued that Sweden could become completely cash free but predicts that this development is unlikely until at least 2030.

"The familiarity of cash in the hand could prevent this. A recent Sifo survey showed that 2/3 people consider (the availability of) cash to be a human right," he said.

Retailers, banks and card companies welcomed the trend with the proviso that customers are able to keep up with developments.

A cash free society would lead to increased security for both staff and customers and would cut cash-handling costs - estimated to be around 8.7 billion kronor ($1.2 billion), some 0.3% of GDP.

Armed robberies are furthermore in decline in line with the reduction of cash use. In 2012, a mere five bank robberies were committed, according to the Swedish Bankers' Association - the lowest figure in 30 years.

The spread of cards and electronic payments has had a profound effect even on the street level with fruit and veg traders and even retailers of the homeless magazine Situation Stockholm accepting card payments.

The spread of electronic payment systems such as Swish are a further addition to the plethora of alternatives for people to transfer small sums without having to resort to the ATM machine.

In 2012, a mere five bank robberies were committed. Almost suggests the Swedes know what is in the banks isn't really money.

Oct 12, 2014 - 6:08pm

US trial set to start against ex-UBS banker

A former top-level UBS banker will stand trial in the United States this week accused of helping rich Americans evade millions of dollars in taxes.

Five years after being charged with conspiracy to commit tax fraud, Raoul Weil, 54, the former head of the Swiss banking giant's global wealth management business, plans to plead not guilty at the federal trial that opens on Tuesday in Florida.

If convicted, he faces up to five years in prison and a hefty fine.

"He is not guilty," his lawyer Aaron Marcu told AFP.

"The same people at UBS who were doing bad things and helping clients hiding assets are the same who are going to testify against him."

The Weil case is a high-profile part of the massive US crackdown on offshore tax dodging, particularly in Switzerland, renowned for its vault-like banking secrecy.

According to the indictment, between 2002 and 2007, as Zurich-based Weil supervised the bank's overseas activities that serviced some 20,000 customers, he and his co-conspirators helped US customers conceal around $20 billion in assets from tax authorities.

The Swiss national was declared a fugitive by the US.

Fired by UBS in April 2009, Weil joined the wealth management firm Reuss Private Group in 2010 as a consultant, then became head of the company in early 2013.

That career came to an end when he was arrested in October 2013 after using his real name to check into a luxury hotel in Bologna, Italy and he was extradited to the United States.

Weil has been living in New Jersey under the supervision of authorities after being freed on bail of $10.5 million last December. He was ordered to surrender his passport and wear a GPS tracking monitor.

His trial initially was set for February 18th but Weil obtained a delay to examine millions of documents provided by the plaintiff, the Department of Justice.

Star witness

Weil's line of defence for the trial in Fort Lauderdale is that he was victimized by his colleagues who had concealed their activities helping US clients dodge taxes.

The conspiracy was brought to light by a whistleblower, the former UBS banker Bradley Birkenfeld, who served time in prison for participating in the illegal scheme.

After his release, Birkenfeld was given a $104-million reward by the Internal Revenue Service for providing the insider information that exposed the vast tax evasion conspiracy.

UBS has been cooperating with US authorities in the crackdown on tax evasion under a landmark agreement reached in February 2009.

UBS paid $780 million to settle the tax fraud case.

The trial, which looks set to pit current and former UBS employees against each other, was expected to last up to a month.

For the prosecution, the star witness undoubtedly will be Martin Liechti, the former head of UBS's wealth management operations in the Americas.

Arrested in 2008 by US authorities, Liechti struck a deal with them to avoid criminal punishment in exchange for providing detailed information about Weil's alleged illegal activities, according to legal documents.

The defence team is expected to present fewer than ten witnesses, including two or three who will testify by video conference from London.

Marcu said a number of people who were asked to testify on behalf of Weil have declined because they fear arrest if they enter the US.

There appears little chance that the two sides will strike a settlement deal before the trial opens, say people close to the matter.

Of course he's on trial -- he was never one of Eric Holder's clients at Covington and Burling.

a $104-million reward by the Internal Revenue Service for providing the insider information that exposed the vast tax evasion conspiracy. So is that tax free, or do they just take back half of what they give you?

Oct 12, 2014 - 6:29pm

Honest AM

I'm really Trying but man it just goes over my head. Guess I'll just keep to selling Real Estate. Keep Stacking

Oct 12, 2014 - 7:37pm

DEC14 Comex Options - WOW!!

Take a look at the Dec14 Comex options. Huge numbers above $1,700 and open interest is 337,620 calls, and 152,556 puts. Sorry for the long post, but I wanted to show the whole spread between calls & puts at all price points.

Calls $1,700 - 23,018 $1,900 - 27,015 $2000 33,237 $2200 - 13,647 $2250 - 31,102

Spartacus Rex
Oct 12, 2014 - 8:05pm
Oct 12, 2014 - 9:52pm

Jim Rickards latest...

Jim tweeted this out a few minutes ago. His latest interview with Greg Hunter/

Oct 12, 2014 - 9:57pm

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

Harvey's up on TFMR, but not on Blogspot.

  • Mark O'Byrne: This week has seen some market volatility reminiscent of the functioning market from days of old. The markets are spooked, bad news is overtaking good news and bearish views are becoming vogue. We are seeing a titanic battle taking place between the various bull and bear camps and they are starting to unleash some serious firepower. The sleepy volumes of late have ticked up appreciably, and small investors are shifting in their seats nervously. The secret that no one really wants to admit (especially while they are making money) is that the recent stock market rally is a gargantous fraud. It has very shaky foundations indeed, propped up on pillars of monetary jelly. At its core is a massive money creation machine which is utterly unaccountable and unelected and a very select credit distribution system. You have heard the arguments regarding growing mountains of debt, the risk of inflation and stagflation, overvalued stock markets, property markets, massive derivative positions etc etc etc. Perhaps you have become a little desensitized to these risks, because the party still seems to be going on, and no one is panicking. Yes we have had a few bumps in the economic road to date but they have been explained away. But far more has happened on your watch then you may be aware and it might all becoming to a head very, very shortly. What has happened is that the entire capital market complex has become "managed" and captured by a few very powerful institutions. What this means is that we have moved from a market based global economy - which matches buyer against seller in an efficient price discovery mechanism, to a planned global economy, where intervention is the norm and the views of those in leveraged command matter more. The markets are, and have been for the past 10 to 15 years, transfixed on the policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, and all other global central banks are transfixed on the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve too. The power that this one institution has been given is staggering. They can, without any recourse, to elected officials, initiate policy that can send the global economy into a tailspin. Their policies can push millions if not billions of Emerging Economy citizens into destitution or transform them from impoverished to empowered.
  • Chris Powell: Buying activity in China's physical gold exchange ticked up this week, indicating retailers in the top consumer of the metal saw good sales during the week-long National Day holiday. Prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange -- the platform for all physical trades in China -- were about $5-$6 an ounce higher than the global benchmark, compared with about $3 before Chinese markets closed for the holiday.
  • Dave Kranzler: The argument is being thrust out there that lower interest rates per the FOMC minutes will stimulate housing sales. Let’s see how that argument has fared in the last 12 months. This graph ( shows the DJ Home Construction Index vs. the 10-year Treasury yield. How’s the “lower rates will stimulate home sales” argument looking? The 10-yr yield is at a 52 week low. 30-year mortgages are priced off the 10-yr and they’re near all-time lows. The only reason the homebuilders are not at a 52-week low – YET – is because of the enormous amount of Fed liquidity being injected in the stock market. As I’ve detailed in previous posts, existing home sales have now declined year over year for 10 months in a row. The year over year comparison is the only way to strip away some of the “seasonal manipulation” that the National Association of Realtors and the Census Bureau impose on the data samples. Existing home sales are 90% of the market. If existing home sales are tanking, so are new home sales. This is despite 1-year lows in interest rates. We are seeing this in the serial weekly decline in mortgage purchase applications nearly every week this year. 93% of all new homes are purchased using mortgages. Earnings season is coming around again for some of the homebuilders starting October 23 for Ryland, Pulte and M/I Homes. DR Horton dropped 11% when it reported its earnings in July.
  • Dave Hodges: The morphing and mutation of Ebola explains why the CDC would be allowed to patent the virus. In other words, it has been artificially constituted to mutate from its original state. Therefore, the CDC was not allowed to patent something from nature, they were allowed to patent something that had been purposely mutated. In the recent briefing with my sources, I was also told that the illegal immigrant children that came into America presented with none of these RNA type of viruses IF THEY HAD NEVER BEEN VACCINATED. Subsequently, my sources believe that previous vaccinations served as a trigger event to initiate positive replication of a virus within a host. The American public is in desperate need of qualified biologists to investigate these allegations.
  • Kit Daniels: The Center for Disease Control and Prevention is responding to only half the calls it is receiving from doctors reporting Ebola-like symptoms in patients, according to doctors who spoke to Infowars medical correspondent Dr. Edward Group. The CDC’s lackluster response to upwards of 40 calls a day regarding potential Ebola cases is disturbing to the medical professionals who spoke to Dr. Group and it follows a similar pattern of performance by CDC officials who were slow to decontaminate both the apartment of the late Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan and the ambulance used to transport him to the hospital. When asked to comment on the response rate to these calls, the CDC Media Relations office at first referred us to its unrelated “CDC Hotline” and then refused to connect us directly to a public information officer on a sequential call because the office is screening questions from the press. It’s no wonder then that doctors are having similar problems reaching the CDC, and such behavior is typical of the agency, which has so far placed more emphasis on the proper burial of Ebola victims than following proper disease protocols meant to prevent the virus from spreading in the first place. Case in point, the CDC is now instructing funeral homes to bury Ebola victims in sealed caskets and had previously warned funeral workers not to embalm corpses. Additionally, previous reports suggested the CDC had purchased thousands of airtight coffin liners and were storing them in Madison, Georgia.

Luke 17:20 ¶And when he was demanded of the Pharisees, when the kingdom of God should come, he answered them and said, The kingdom of God cometh not with observation:
21 Neither shall they say, Lo here! or, lo there! for, behold, the kingdom of God is within you.
22 And he said unto the disciples, The days will come, when ye shall desire to see one of the days of the Son of man, and ye shall not see it.
23 And they shall say to you, See here; or, see there: go not after them, nor follow them.
24 For as the lightning, that lighteneth out of the one part under heaven, shineth unto the other part under heaven; so shall also the Son of man be in his day.
25 But first must he suffer many things, and be rejected of this generation.


Oct 12, 2014 - 10:05pm

Jonathan Cahn

Hi, great post Argentus. I have just finished reading Jonathan Cahn's book "The Harbinger" and am now reading his book "The Mystery of The Shemitah". The Jubilee occurs once every 7 Shemitahs or every 49 years and he claims not always a hard and fast occurrence. There are a series of You Tube vids (a 4 part series), they are easy enough to find if you put it in your google machine. They are a great intro. The first I heard of it was from one of Bag of Gold's posts so I checked it out. Super facinating stuff. Thanks BOG!! Not really well written, but the content is interesting for sure. I'd love to hear from anyone who is learned in the Jewish traditions on this to hear opposing discourse. :)

Spartacus Rex
Oct 12, 2014 - 11:14pm

Lifted from ZH

"Prepare For Runs", IMF Warns Policymakers Of "Elevated Financial Stability & Liquidity Risks"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/12/2014

The extended period of monetary accommodation and the accompanying search for yield are leading to credit mispricing and asset price pressures, increasing the chance that financial stability risks could derail the recovery.

Concerns have shifted to the shadow banking system, especially the growing share of illiquid credit in mutual fund portfolios.

Should asset markets come under stress, an adverse feedback loop between outflows and asset performance could develop, moving markets from a low- to a high-volatility state, with negative implications for emerging market economies.

Funds investing in credit instruments have a number of features that could result in elevated financial stability risks...

Continued @ link provided above

Spartacus Rex
Oct 12, 2014 - 11:21pm
Oct 12, 2014 - 11:53pm
Spartacus Rex
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:12am
Spartacus Rex
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:13am
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:20am

Bill Moyers on Too Big to Fail and Not Jailing The Bankers

I ran across this link on Ed Steer's Blog to an interview Bill Moyers did with William K. Black:

and even though I had seen it before, I watched it again and it is a must watch for anyone who has never seen it before. Make sure your blood pressure is under control before watching. Black was a central figure in exposing Congressional corruption during the Savings and Loan Crisis. He took the notes during the Keating Five meeting that were later published in the press, and brought the event to national attention and a congressional investigation.

According to Bill Moyers, (speaking of Black)

"The former Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention now teaches Economics and Law at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. During the savings and loan crisis, it was Black who accused then-house speaker Jim Wright and five US Senators, including John Glenn and John McCain, of doing favors for the S&L's in exchange for contributions and other perks. The senators got off with a slap on the wrist, but so enraged was one of those bankers, Charles Keating — after whom the senate's so-called "Keating Five" were named — he sent a memo that read, in part, 'get Black — kill him dead.' Metaphorically, of course. Of course."[4]

Before the election I had great concerns that the Republican candidate would be too willing to dance at the end of the finance industries string, but little did I know about Obama's funding from the financial industry.

Looking forward to the coming week. Don't care if PMs are up or down because if they go down it is an excuse to stack a little higher for the inevitable.

Oct 13, 2014 - 2:38am

IMF annual meeting + 'financial wargame'

Wellnow... Interesting Columbus Day in the works...

IMF Annual Meeting 10/10 - 10/12 just concluded (actually, it was on all last week). Full schedule with some webcasts of talks:

Lots of 'inclusive growth' and 'sharing the wealth' as themes of keynotes and panels... I have not had a chance to dig through this yet, but perhaps of interest to students of CBs. What the HELL was the Archbishop of Canterbury doing at one of the closing day events, for example:

Sunday, October 12th:

Flagship: The Future of Finance - Session 1: Ethics and Finance

Moderator: SEAN HAGAN, General Counsel and Director of the IMF Legal Department

  • MARK CARNEY, Governor, Bank of England
  • PHILIPP HILDEBRAND, Vice-Chair, BlackRock, Inc.
  • CHRISTINE LAGARDE, Managing Director, IMF
  • KOK-SONG NG, GIC Chair of Global Investments
  • THE MOST REVEREND JUSTIN WELBY, Archbishop of Canterbury

Some opportunity-rich hashtags from the sessions (a la #AskJPM) -- lots more if you peruse the individual seminars from the IMF and World Bank:

#EthicsInFinance ; #WhatsNextEU

'Wargame' simulating TBTF bank collapse: Anglo CB Joint Exercise - Lew/Yellen 'vs.' Osborne/Carney

(Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg) Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, leaves following the bank's quarterly inflation report news conference in London, on Aug. 13, 2014.

"The exercise, designed by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic, forms part of a series of measures designed to end the phenomenon of “too big to fail”, limit the risks to financial stability and protect taxpayers from future bailouts.

Mr Osborne said the “war game”, which will take place in Washington after the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting, will examine the failure of a big Wall Street bank with UK operations, and that of a major UK bank with a division in the US. [...] The initial findings of the simulation will be published next week, and will form one of the cornerstones of G20 proposals to strengthen the financial system that Mr Carney, who is also head of the Financial Stability Board, is expected to present in Australia next month." -- The Telegraph

"There is no doubt that in 2008 the judgment taken by my predecessor and others was that banks ... like the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) and others were too big to fail," Osborne said.

"Now I want to make sure that ... we have real options, and that we are able to avoid bailing in taxpayers with a bailout. And I’m pretty confident that's the case now," he said. [...]

One scenario would test the hypothetical failure of a U.S. bank with UK operations, and a second the demise of a large UK bank with U.S. operations, the countries said. Results would be communicated after the exercise.

The exercise comes as regulators are about to bring to fruition further initiatives to make banking safer.

The first would force banks to have more long-term bonds that investors know can lose their value during a crisis, on top of their equity capital, to double their so-called Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC).

A second measure, expected to be announced this weekend, will force through a change in derivative contracts, which in their current form protect investors, and complicate the winding down of a bank across borders." -- Reuters

Dry run for depositor bailins, enforced .gov paper conversions and derivatives nullifications on both sides of the pond? I DO wish financial media actually did their jobs and reported on the details, instead of vaguely hinting... Emphasis mine.

This next bit is also quite suggestive -- the script is being finalized, and distributed among the cast:

"Mr Osborne said the purpose of the exercise was to make sure every player, including politicians, knew their responsibilities and who needed to act; which creditors would have to take a hit; and how to communicate the authorities’ actions to the public." [...] " -- Financial Times (just answer the brief poll question WITH A MADE-UP RESPONSE, and you get access to the full article)

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (L) and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew (R) confer after a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council at the Treasury Department in Washington October 6, 2014.


"The FSB maintains a list of global systemically important banks. The latest list included 29 banks and identified HSBC Holdings Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. as the banks whose failure would do the most damage to the global economy.

The exercise will involve the heads of the U.K.’s Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

BOE Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Nemat Shafik, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, and New York Fed President William Dudley will also participate.

The U.K. central bank earlier this year tested lenders’ defenses against cyber-attacks in a war game called Waking Shark II." -- Bloomberg

I, for one, look forward to the brilliance with which our financial overlords will create order out of chaos. And I have NO trepidations of a massive exercise for 'practicing responses' to an apocalyptic event -- those have all worked out with quite useful learnings when conducted in the past... And it is also reassuring to know that the most honorable political players involved in the performance are participating in a dress rehearsal -- I am sure the premier performance will be a SMASHING success.../sarc/

Some related entertaining 'fiction' from Cognitive Dissonance on ZH:

The Call – A Fictional Look at the 25 Minute Market Crash (5/9/2010)

Flash Crash – The Call Redux - A Fictional Look at the May 6, 2010 Market Crash (5/6/2011)

Also... now that I stop and think about it... 2015 - 2008 = 7. There's that magical, mystical, single-digit prime number again...

Stack those (literal and metaphorical) stackables... faster.

Spartacus Rex
Oct 13, 2014 - 3:20am

Will Fed Let Stock Market Crash Before an Election?

Will the Fed Let the Stock Market Crash Before an Election? (October 13, 2014) Charles Hugh Smith

Mr. Fix
Oct 13, 2014 - 9:56am
Safety Dan
Oct 13, 2014 - 10:10am



John Bovay

“…And now a new legendary terrorist leader of the Islamic State has emerged: Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, who allegedly ordered the kidnapping and murder of the 3 Israeli teenagers (which served as a pretext to bomb Gaza) was trained by Mossad: “[He] took intensive military training for a whole year in the hands of Mossad, besides courses in theology and the art of speech.” (Gulf News, July 15, 2014)

Oct 13, 2014 - 12:04pm

Shemitah’s First 2 Weeks Bring Ominous Signs

Blood moons, plummeting stock markets and a growing Ebola pandemic dominated the headlines this past week.

If that’s not enough cause for concern, there’s an army of Islamic terrorists bearing down on the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.

None of this should come as a surprise to those who have read “The Mystery of the Shemitah” by Jonathan Cahn, a messianic rabbi and Bible teacher from New Jersey who also authored the best-selling Christian book “The Harbinger” in 2012.

Without a doubt, the Shemitah year, which kicked off on Sept. 25, has begun with a blast of bad news.

...........................It's the March 18th date which Rickards mentioned to keep an eye on in conjunction with a solar eclipse 4/20/2015. A Wednesday and Friday respectively. No market crash before an election as charles hugh smith indicates in early post this thread today. Oh it's coming! It's when the EEE are ready to pull the plug or divine intervention to lead the EEE to fall into the pit dug for others or trapped in their own craftiness. As Willie stated more bankster bodies hitting the pavement. It will pour with bankster bodies this time around. All the sucked in being offered as a sacrifice upon the alter of Keynesian or santanic deception of value in worthless paper assets. The devil will sacrifice the whole world if we fail to bow down and worship the beast. For now the majority do and place their trust in the arm of flesh or government to save them temporally, when holding their own key to deliverance. Using your own God given intelligence to self sufficiency. We don't need no stinkin government should all realize there are correct principles to live and govern your own life. Been around since Adam and you don't have to pay money to discover them. Does take an investment of time to test them by so living. If any do God's will they shall no of the doctrine of whether it is of God or I speak of myself. Do it and you know. This is why action cures fear for faith is action; applying; living what you believe to be sound principle. Exercising faith removes doubt and fear. The two may not exist together faith and fear; doubt and faith. You're applying one or the other but not both at the same time it goes contrary to the laws of nature. Water runs down hill as fear, following the course of least resistance where faith powers water through action uphill. Getting it to vital organs; where it does the most good and refreshes. Sure it's hard work but the refreshing is out of this world. Let's continue to exercise faith in God to deliver on His promises and taste of the of the fountain of pure waters continually.

BagOfGold pm_newbie
Oct 13, 2014 - 12:46pm

Argentus Maximus...

What a great article you have posted!...If anyone wants to listen to The is the audiobook!...

Video unavailable

Bag Of Gold

Oct 13, 2014 - 1:16pm

The answer to this question is the key . . .

is the key to many "events" going on in the world, IMO:

"2) Can an entire society create paper wealth at a far greater rate than the actual economic growth rate, and then simultaneously cash out this paper wealth into real goods and services?"

The answer, of course, is "no."

The USA is broke and cannot pay out all the benefits it has promised, in terms of social security income, and Medicare/Medicaid benefits, pensions, etc., in anything close to maintaining present purchasing power.

The paper financial system created a false signal that growth was unlimited, including human population growth.

Now, we are close to the end of the fiat/debt regime, and all efforts to maintain it are now starting to fail. We see this with ZIRP for years on end, and bubbles in stocks and bonds.

We see it in BRICs countries rebelling at western financial rule, as they seek to escape dollar hegemony.

Of course, the elites see it coming, and have planned for what to do about it for years. Their first major foray since JFK was murdered was 9/11. 9/11 opened the door to many more false flags, almost too numerous to list.

Now, on the cusp of full-out failure, we have been given ISIS, named recently by a member of th elite as the greatest threat EVER to mankind, and of course the worst Ebola outbreak in the history of the world.

I have not determined as yet whether they simply intend to utilize these new "threats" as a means to declare and operate martial law "for our own good" and to have a handy scapegoaat for failure, or whether they intend to utilize these as methods to kill off significant numbers of people to get things back in line, without calling direct attention to themselves as ringleaders.

Oct 13, 2014 - 1:29pm

The King of Time...

Talking about cycles, civilizations, the raise and fall of empires...and destiny, let me bring another name, from the other side, just to -- keep it interesting and balanced. ;-)

They call him the King of Time, and he is the author of Destiny Tables. He was born to well-to-do family, but died young, poor and hungry, like many men in those times. He is the father of futurism, a poet, scientist and mathematician. Yet, to really understand this man, one would have to have some education, some level of artistic talent, because his work is about feeling the flow of time and history, feeling the rhythm. He made some interesting predictions, too, like mass communication, television...even though he died in 1922. During last 20 years, he was "rediscovered" in Western Europe, mostly by intellectuals and artists, and lately, he is being translated even here, in the U.S. His name is Velimir Khlebnikov. His writing, the poetry and math, looks like this --

You can google him up. There are many articles about him, and sometime quite confusing, too. If there would be an interest, I can tell you about him a bit more. About his calculations.

One more link, to illustrate his growing popularity. There is this Jesus College, in Cambridge, an art school. Art & Sculpture. I was looking at their works and then, there was this guy and his works, Anselm Kiefer. Here's what he writes about Khlebnikov:

"Anselm Kiefer is a builder of systems: a painter and sculptor whose work has shown a fascination with traditions of thought, with litanies of divine and heroic figures, supernatural genealogies, star-charts, the names and agencies of classical and Germanic mythology, the stratified levels of being dreamed of in the Kabbala—all reflecting the limits of human understanding and intimating a knowledge of the world that must always remain ambiguous, cryptic, oracular.

Given these preoccupations, Kiefer’s fascination with the figure of Velimir Khlebnikov seems inevitable. The Russian ‘Futurian’ is best known as an experimental poet, but his work includes various writings that elaborate several theories about the structure of the universe and the laws of time. Of all the texts that comprise Khlebnikov’s strange oeuvre, the ‘Tables of Destiny" have held the strongest appeal for Kiefer. They represent Khlebnikov’s attempt to understand history as a system of correspondences, as a series of mutually defining events that echo one another across different measures of time. The periodicity may vary enormously but, according to Khlebnikov, it always reveals the operation of the same mathematical proportions..."

Oct 13, 2014 - 1:35pm

Ebola "brings it home" for people . . .

"This is where everything is changing because the great masses whom many relate to as “the herd mentality” is now showing signs of great nervousness. And once this group gets spooked: It’s Katie bar the door time.

The issue that compounds this problem is what many more are realizing and never thought possible: The very real possibility of a pandemic that can actually affect them. Not just someone on the other side of a screen (or phone). But actually – them.

Again, this is where everything that seemingly didn’t matter, or was brushed off as “never gonna happen” suddenly turns into “Wait…what?” And there are many “Wait…what?” moments compounding one on top of each other."


Yes, many "moments compounding one on top of each other." Coincidence? I sincerely doubt it.

BagOfGold Bohemian
Oct 13, 2014 - 3:04pm

Bohemian...The King Of Time...

Your reference to the artist Anselm Kiefer...& his work of art...Your Golden Hair, Margarete (1980) me an anxious feeling...waiting for "something big to happen"!...

Of course...this goes with the art above!...

Death Fugue by Paul Celan

Black milk of daybreak we drink it at evening
we drink it at midday and morning we drink it at night
we drink and we drink
we shovel a grave in the air there you won't lie too cramped
A man lives in the house he plays with his vipers he writes
he writes when it grows dark to Deutschland your golden hair Marguerite
he writes it and steps out of doors and the stars are all sparkling
he whistles his hounds to come close
he whistles his Jews into rows has them shovel a grave in the ground
he orders us strike up and play for the dance

Black milk of daybreak we drink you at night
we drink you at morning and midday we drink you at evening
we drink and we drink
A man lives in the house he plays with his vipers he writes
he writes when it grows dark to Deutschland your golden hair Margeurite
your ashen hair Shulamith we shovel a grave in the air there you won't lie too cramped
He shouts jab this earth deeper you lot there you others sing up and play
he grabs for the rod in his belt he swings it his eyes are blue
jab your spades deeper you lot there you others play on for the dancing

Black milk of daybreak we drink you at night
we drink you at midday and morning we drink you at evening
we drink and we drink
a man lives in the house your goldenes Haar Margeurite
your aschenes Haar Shulamith he plays with his vipers
He shouts play death more sweetly Death is a master from Deutschland
he shouts scrape your strings darker you'll rise then in smoke to the sky
you'll have a grave then in the clouds there you won't lie too cramped

Black milk of daybreak we drink you at night
we drink you at midday Death is a master aus Deutschland
we drink you at evening and morning we drink and we drink
this Death is ein Meister aus Deutschland his eye it is blue
he shoots you with shot made of lead shoots you level and true
a man lives in the house your goldenes Haar Margarete
he looses his hounds on us grants us a grave in the air
he plays with his vipers and daydreams
der Tod is ein Meister aus Deutschland
dein goldenes Haar Margarete
dein aschenes Haar Shulamith

Die Todesfuge - The Death Fugue - played by Hal Freedman - HRS Charity Album on iTunes

Bag Of Gold

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