To buy or not to buy

Tue, Oct 7, 2014 - 3:06am

If I sit back, and close my eyes and recall the exciting days of 2010 and 2011, the recurring thought that comes to me is my desire to have bought more metal when the price was low. I recall walking through an antique store in Centerville Indiana in 2001 and noticing that one dealer had hundreds of silver coins in cardboard holders on the table top for folks to look through, picking out coins for their collections—silver coins, unwatched by security or anyone except the cashier about 30 feet away who was often distracted ringing people up. The shoplifters were after better stuff. The coins were deemed not worthy of even putting in a glass case. Silver was about 4.75 per ounce then.

Oh! How I wish I had loaded the boat like some of you did!

But I didn’t, and it was another nine years before I noticed some silver coins in the display at another antique shop. This time they were with the jewelry and other “good stuff,” and this time the walking liberties were priced at $8 each. I suspected something was up and finally, finally started to investigate. I started making some judicious purchases, a few ounces at a atime.

After silver topped $30, I realized I needed more, that my purchases at $24 were rather insignificant. I often sang that refrain: “How I wish I had bought it cheaper.” How many of you have sang that?

The rest is history—especially the part where I loaded the boat with a credit card at over $40 per ounce.

So here we are with $17 handle silver (16-something over the weekend), with warnings from Turd and others that we may see lower prices. Meh! We have already been tortured and seeing metals priced in for less fiat just doesn’t hurt any longer. My perspectives are changing. What is valuable to me now are the things I will need when the paper system moves to its intrinsic value.

So, are you stocking up? My wife and I did the other day, to the best of our ability. NO regrets, even with this push lower. I might even consider loading up with my credit card again if they push things even lower. I am curious how others feel about that potentially foolhardy strategy.

If you have not listened to the Kirby interview yet, and if you are debating a purchase, I suggest it is 30 minutes well spent. My thanks to a couple of people who posted it the other day.

And I wonder about those former posters here who moved back to paper trading. Do you stop by TFMR from time to time and chuckle at what cultish strong-handed idiots we have been, patting yourself on the back for selling your stack before we took the really big dive? Well ... are you selling your paper here at the top for a nice profit and loading your boats with metals? I sure hope so, for your sake. The tide will soon turn. This isn’t going down like we all planned, hoping to catch a moonshot then convert our metal back to fiat and pay off houses, land, and buy stuff for a nice retirement in a new economy. No, they have put the pain to strong hands, hoping to shake our metal loose, punishing us for daring to make their road more difficult. 

We are buying to preserve our families through this transition period, not to get rich and retire.QE is ending, Rates may be raised in 2015. The dollar is being pushed out of reserve status. The petrodollar strength is eroding one nation at a time. Eighty percent of the world population regards precious metals as money—and their governments are buying, their citizens are buying. Price may rise, or it may fall further. But one Saturday morning, not long from now, after unsuccessfully looking for cartoons on cable, we shall channel-flip across a Bloomberg story (about an hour after Zerohedge runs it) that the Comex will settle all outstanding contracts in cash, at Friday’s price. Then the traders will say "I think I'll buy metals now--they are a good asset class." But will you find any metal for sale? Will your dealer even ship the order you made four days earlier while they are waiting to see if your check clears?

One of our members, Lamenting Laverne, asked an astute question the other night:

Could it be that due to risk of disruption to continuance of government - either from sabotage or because the economy could crash in the process - that an army of bloggers have been warning people in a million different ways, so as many people as possible can fend for themselves (Link)

If she is correct about the possibility that TPTB are divided, and at least one faction is trying to warn us, then this latest beatdown is intended for our benefit. We’d better take full advantage. Time may be shorter than we know.

These prices are a gift. Unless you like paper better. But even Cookie Monster can figure this one out. One of these things is not like the other. 

Today, you can buy silver cheaper than miners can dig it out of the ground—and you can still get it delivered to your door in a box marked “auto parts.” Gold is at its break-even price for miners. How long until there is no metal available at any price? I don’t know about you, but I won’t be kicking myself for not buying at 17-something. If metals stay available at these absurdly low rates, then that simply confirms more strongly that the endgame is here.

Buy. Hold. Sleep well.

About the Author


atarangi · Oct 7, 2014 - 3:18am


Anyone who isn't buying at these prices needs a good waterboarding.

Barfly · Oct 7, 2014 - 3:44am

If you don't have it by now,

If you don't have it by now, I don't know if it's going to be available. I considered hyperinflationary theory very carefully before making my first significant purchase of metal. It came in a box marked auto parts, in point of fact. But, the people who sold it to me are now history. Suddenly bankrupt. Imagine if I had waited on that purchase until the day after they went under. I decided that the best approach was to get what I could when I could and not really worry about the price. Thus, every significant windfall I've had since has gone to metals. I actually feel myself lucky price has been declining. Every significant price smash, starting in April 2013, it seems, has taken a significant amount of metal into hiding. Retailers pull their stock and won't sell. My wholesaler gets bum rushed every time price gets smacked hard and quickly empties their vault. I guess what I'm trying to say is that one would have to have special relationships or get extraordinarily lucky to get physical in significant quantity at the absolute bottom of the chart.

atarangi · Oct 7, 2014 - 3:55am
Spartacus Rex · Oct 7, 2014 - 4:12am

Funny, Just When You Think The Weak Hands Have All Left...

Unbelievably, they are still out there, still listening to the MSM MOPE, and believe it or not, Goldman Sux!

It's like seriously? To come this far, and last friday's smack down causes them to crap their shorts and capitulate, in spite of the fact that the U.S. is yet another Trillion U.S. Diapers in the hole, even all of our allies and trading partners are setting up bilateral currency swaps w/ China, and the BRICS are creating their own SWIFT apparatus?

Oh well, more than happy to take that burden and weight off your handsangel Paper is so much lighter and easier to carry!

Really, and Good Luck with those 401K's, Pensions, MYRA's, Bonds, etc..

Cheers, S. Rex

Hammer · Oct 7, 2014 - 4:34am

Kind of like a moment of

Kind of like a moment of realisation this ?


Video unavailable
Safety Dan · Oct 7, 2014 - 4:38am
Safety Dan · Oct 7, 2014 - 4:40am
Safety Dan · Oct 7, 2014 - 5:03am

This chart says the long

This chart says the long decline in silver could soon be over

From Chris Kimble at Kimble Charting Solutions:

The above chart was created when silver was trading at $28 per ounce. I shared with Premium Members in June of 2012, that silver looked to be creating a bearish descending triangle and the measured move was calling for silver to hit $15 per ounce (see projection of red arrow above).

Since the chart was made, silver is down 40% in value and is nearing the projected price of the descending triangle.


I have been sharing with metals members for months that the $15 zone in silver looks to be an interesting place to pick up some more. The above chart highlights why the “Power of the Pattern” says this could be a potential good buy point.

Hammer · Oct 7, 2014 - 5:12am

OK, I'm not American in any

OK, I'm not American in any way but seriously WTF !!!

This Is the First Weekend in America With No Saturday Morning Cartoons

Anyone who now has any memory of this in The US is now just a sad old fuck with babblings of yesteryear.

Safety Dan · Oct 7, 2014 - 5:14am

Econocasts Trading

Econocasts Trading Models

2014.10.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Posted: 06 Oct 2014 08:15 AM PDT

2014.10.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model continues to perform adequately. The model is suggesting a pseudocycle for silver where prices range from about 1500 to 2100 through the end of 2015. A previous iteration of the model is shown here and below.

2014.08.22 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Spartacus Rex · Oct 7, 2014 - 5:24am

@ Hammer, Seriously?...

O.K., now you are scraping the bottom of the barrel for worthwhile "news" and commentary. cheeky

Cheers, S. Rex

Safety Dan · Oct 7, 2014 - 5:48am


YOU ARE 100% RIGHT ABOUT SILVER — The Wealth Watchman

from SGT

As The Wealth Watchman notes, despite the cartel’s vicious, criminal paper games, Silver & Gold demand has EXPLODED and Western demand is back with a vengeance. Judging by the past week of Silver Eagle sales from the US Mint the big players, the smartest guys in the room were busy buying nearly 24 tonnes of silver from the U.S. Mint!

So the cartel can continue slaughtering the paper silver market, but they do so at their own peril as the inverse reaction to their criminality is a RUN ON PHYSICAL precious metals in the United States and abroad.

YOU ARE 100% RIGHT ABOUT SILVER -- The Wealth Watchman
Hammer · Oct 7, 2014 - 5:55am

P.S. Hmmm, 7% you say

P.S. Hmmm, 7% you say ?

Doubles every ten years you say ? Take any country - it doesn't matter.

Not again surely. Human nature ? Never ?

Compound interest ? Einstein said what ?

Hammer · Oct 7, 2014 - 6:05am

Let's cut the you know what

Let's cut the you know what and get back to the basics - many old timers here will know this but here it is for the new ones :) Watch all 8 parts.

The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See (part 1 of 8)
Safety Dan · Oct 7, 2014 - 6:06am

Here Is The Most Frightening

Here Is The Most Frightening Prediction To End 2014

from KingWorldNews:

We are very close to where the upside explosion in gold is going to begin. There are millions of despondent gold holders right now but if they look at the quarterly chart below they will see that we are just a few bucks away from the end of what has been a brutal bear market ($1,160 on the trendline below).

The global stock markets will top out at the time gold bottoms at the of the trendline shown on the multi-decade chart you see above. This is the crossroads where the bull market in gold is going to reassert itself.

Ron Rosen continues @

Safety Dan · Oct 7, 2014 - 6:14am

Everyone’s Shorting Gold; Due

Everyone’s Shorting Gold; Due For A Rally

from KitcoNews:

Everyone’s Shorting Gold; Due For A Rally – Holmes
Hammer · Oct 7, 2014 - 6:15am

For those that actually watch

For those that actually watch the whole video I posted earlier, fracking would be one of the 4 bottles ;)

Hammer · Oct 7, 2014 - 6:17am

Everyone (specs) is shorting

Everyone (specs) is shorting the dollar right now...............they are gonna get smoked ?

p.s. the gentleman in the vid down the road.

Al Bartlett Interview
Marchas45 · Oct 7, 2014 - 6:22am

@ Dr. J

One heck of a question to ask me, I stack Silver, Food, Ammo, Guns, Medical Supplies, Gas, Propane and lot's of other survival items because when the SHTF I'm going to have shit to survive with and others won't. Have a Happy Day and Keep Stacking

Safety Dan · Oct 7, 2014 - 6:41am

Why Gold, Crude Prices Have

  1. Why Gold, Crude Prices Have Hit Multi-Year Lows

    NDTV ‎-

    Precious metals seem to have joined the global downturn in commodity prices, with gold tumbling to its lowest level in 15 months on Monday. 

  2. Gold Futures Jump Most in Two Months After Dollar Slumps


ivars · Oct 7, 2014 - 6:58am

Completely agree with this

Completely agree with this analysis:

10 reasons why reserve currency status is exorbitant burden

and conclusion for Rocks and Roths and what they agree on:

As Bernstein concluded,

what was once a privilege is now a burden, undermining job growth, pumping up budget and trade deficits and inflating financial bubbles. To get the American economy on track, the government needs to drop its commitment to maintaining the dollar’s reserve-currency status.
The sturm und drang is rising for the de-dollarization of the world... and maybe that's just what they want?

EXACTLY; That is the logical next step in worldwide real money supply debt expansion. Dollar has become (UST) too scarce to provide for the whole world, as gold once was. That is the reason why UST prices as sitting high despite all QEs and debt. of course tensions help during the transition. 


achmachat · Oct 7, 2014 - 7:14am

for what it's worth...

I just bought 100 silver Maples. It makes me feel that I have some more recent skin in the game.

· Oct 7, 2014 - 8:13am

Argentus Maximus made an

Argentus Maximus made an astute point a few weeks back which was not so intuitive because I've never heard it before. The more people you tell, the longer it will take the price to go up. The lower the sentiment, the quicker the capitulation, the sooner the bull market. TPTB is agile and they react to you.

Total apathy will ring in the bullmarket. Just don't give a shit. Let's see


Another look at the recent secret service scandal and how these security threats to the President might have a connection to the presidential financial game plan.

thurd aye · Oct 7, 2014 - 8:32am
Mantis · Oct 7, 2014 - 8:47am

To buy or not to buy

Yes! If I can persuade the wife.

I wouldn't load up on credit card though (watch out for greed), myself I have an aversion to paying interest to banks when I can avoid it.

Bollocks · Oct 7, 2014 - 8:50am

Uh oh

Spain Warns "Something Went Wrong" As Suspected Ebola Cases Rise In Madrid

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/07/2014 08:44 -0400

Despite being described by Spain's public health director as "a national jewel," the head of Spain's Nursing Council warns "something went wrong" in the health care system's protocols. As RT reports, Spanish health officials have 4 patients interned including infected initial nurse, her husband, and a 2nd nurse (male). Furthermore, 22 more possible Ebola cases are under surveillance having had direct contact with the infected nurse during her vacation after being infected (officials have said they 'don't know' how she became infected with the deadly virus). Images within the hospital show "irregularities" and make-shift isolation units and an insider account said "I do not want to create social alarm, but explain what is still a reality everyday for a few months of nursing staff at the ICU.". One researcher noted "air traffic is the driver.," and added ominously, "it's just a matter of who gets lucky and who gets unlucky."

Maximillion · Oct 7, 2014 - 9:09am

To Buy or Sell??

Whilst stacking is fine as long as you can afford it and not just jump all in, as many have done before at the highs, without demand what's to stop the price of Silver going right back down to $8.00 or even lower!

Ignoring the big boys, a quick check on ebay or at any auction reveals there's still plenty of physical sellers at the current price. Add in the fact that Joe public can't be ars*d to look even as far as their next paycheck or handout, and the whole game still firmly belongs to TPTB who can do what they want with the Paper price.

If you're trying to beat them with paper trading forget it, they've got it completely stitched up. If you're trying to save for your future generations of family, bear in mind it will take generations of time.

ag1969 · Oct 7, 2014 - 9:46am


"Whilst stacking is fine as long as you can afford it and not just jump all in, as many have done before at the highs, without demand what's to stop the price of Silver going right back down to $8.00 or even lower!"

I believe this statement to be based on a false premise. I do not believe we are without demand.

"Ignoring the big boys, a quick check on ebay or at any auction reveals there's still plenty of physical sellers at the current price. Add in the fact that Joe public can't be ars*d to look even as far as their next paycheck or handout, and the whole game still firmly belongs to TPTB who can do what they want with the Paper price. "

I don't see anything available on ebay for the current paper price. With that said, yes, there is plenty of silver on ebay. Remember that ebay is made of a lot of sellers, some of whom may be selling off part of an existing inventory, and some that are selling a few dollars of junk silver or an Eagle or a bar. Even the big boys are starting to run low or out of certain items. Go to Provident and look at how many different 5 and 10 Oz bars they have available. They have just a couple of offerings in those categories, but just a few months ago they had many more. It is the buyers of size that can't get a contract delivered on that blows it up, not ag1969 buying a 100 gram geiger bar. Watch the Rob Kirby video in Dr. J's fine article.

"If you're trying to beat them with paper trading forget it,"


they've got it completely stitched up. If you're trying to save for your future generations of family, bear in mind it will take generations of time. "

Paper and saving for generations are not the only two options here. There are insurance, survival, counterparty risk, and as Dr. J eloquently pointed out in his fine article, "We are buying to preserve our families through this transition period, not to get rich and retire." Everybody's reasons should be their own. Plan your work, work your plan.


Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales