To buy or not to buy
If I sit back, and close my eyes and recall the exciting days of 2010 and 2011, the recurring thought that comes to me is my desire to have bought more metal when the price was low. I recall walking through an antique store in Centerville Indiana in 2001 and noticing that one dealer had hundreds of silver coins in cardboard holders on the table top for folks to look through, picking out coins for their collections—silver coins, unwatched by security or anyone except the cashier about 30 feet away who was often distracted ringing people up. The shoplifters were after better stuff. The coins were deemed not worthy of even putting in a glass case. Silver was about 4.75 per ounce then.
Oh! How I wish I had loaded the boat like some of you did!
But I didn’t, and it was another nine years before I noticed some silver coins in the display at another antique shop. This time they were with the jewelry and other “good stuff,” and this time the walking liberties were priced at $8 each. I suspected something was up and finally, finally started to investigate. I started making some judicious purchases, a few ounces at a atime.
After silver topped $30, I realized I needed more, that my purchases at $24 were rather insignificant. I often sang that refrain: “How I wish I had bought it cheaper.” How many of you have sang that?
The rest is history—especially the part where I loaded the boat with a credit card at over $40 per ounce.
So here we are with $17 handle silver (16-something over the weekend), with warnings from Turd and others that we may see lower prices. Meh! We have already been tortured and seeing metals priced in for less fiat just doesn’t hurt any longer. My perspectives are changing. What is valuable to me now are the things I will need when the paper system moves to its intrinsic value.
So, are you stocking up? My wife and I did the other day, to the best of our ability. NO regrets, even with this push lower. I might even consider loading up with my credit card again if they push things even lower. I am curious how others feel about that potentially foolhardy strategy.
If you have not listened to the Kirby interview yet, and if you are debating a purchase, I suggest it is 30 minutes well spent. My thanks to a couple of people who posted it the other day.
And I wonder about those former posters here who moved back to paper trading. Do you stop by TFMR from time to time and chuckle at what cultish strong-handed idiots we have been, patting yourself on the back for selling your stack before we took the really big dive? Well ... are you selling your paper here at the top for a nice profit and loading your boats with metals? I sure hope so, for your sake. The tide will soon turn. This isn’t going down like we all planned, hoping to catch a moonshot then convert our metal back to fiat and pay off houses, land, and buy stuff for a nice retirement in a new economy. No, they have put the pain to strong hands, hoping to shake our metal loose, punishing us for daring to make their road more difficult.
We are buying to preserve our families through this transition period, not to get rich and retire.QE is ending, Rates may be raised in 2015. The dollar is being pushed out of reserve status. The petrodollar strength is eroding one nation at a time. Eighty percent of the world population regards precious metals as money—and their governments are buying, their citizens are buying. Price may rise, or it may fall further. But one Saturday morning, not long from now, after unsuccessfully looking for cartoons on cable, we shall channel-flip across a Bloomberg story (about an hour after Zerohedge runs it) that the Comex will settle all outstanding contracts in cash, at Friday’s price. Then the traders will say "I think I'll buy metals now--they are a good asset class." But will you find any metal for sale? Will your dealer even ship the order you made four days earlier while they are waiting to see if your check clears?
One of our members, Lamenting Laverne, asked an astute question the other night:
Could it be that due to risk of disruption to continuance of government - either from sabotage or because the economy could crash in the process - that an army of bloggers have been warning people in a million different ways, so as many people as possible can fend for themselves (Link)
If she is correct about the possibility that TPTB are divided, and at least one faction is trying to warn us, then this latest beatdown is intended for our benefit. We’d better take full advantage. Time may be shorter than we know.
These prices are a gift. Unless you like paper better. But even Cookie Monster can figure this one out. One of these things is not like the other.
Today, you can buy silver cheaper than miners can dig it out of the ground—and you can still get it delivered to your door in a box marked “auto parts.” Gold is at its break-even price for miners. How long until there is no metal available at any price? I don’t know about you, but I won’t be kicking myself for not buying at 17-something. If metals stay available at these absurdly low rates, then that simply confirms more strongly that the endgame is here.
Buy. Hold. Sleep well.